• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2009

본 연구는 기존의 버스 운영계획모형을 시스템 다이나믹스(System Dynamics : SD) 관점에서 검토하는 것을 주된 목적으로 하고 있다. 결정변수들 간의 선형적 관계에 기초한 교��비용모델에 SD관점을 적용하여 순환적 관계로의 재구성을 시도하였으며, 그 결과물로 최적배차간격모형의 인과지도(Causal Loop Diagram)을 제시하였다. 또한 계량적 시뮬레이션이 가능한 저유량 인과지도(Stock & Flow Diagram)을 작성하여 시뮬레이션 결과의 의미를 논의하였다. 연구결과, 시뮬레이션에 적용한 수식이 기존의 교통비용모형에 토대를 두고 있기 때문에 시뮬레이션 결과가 기존의 연구와 큰 차이를 보이지 않았다.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.65-75
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• 2022

This study aims to forecast of Air Passenger Demand between South Korea and North Korea using the system dynamics analysis methodology that is based on the system thinking. System dynamics is not only a tool that makes the systematic thought to a model but also a computer program-based analysis methodology that mathematically models the system varying according to time variation. This study analyzed the causal relationship based on the interrelation among variables and structured them by considering various variables that affect aviation cooperation from the perspective of Air passenger demand forecasting. In addition, based on the causal relationship between variables, this study also completed the causal loop diagram that forms a feedback loop, constructed the stock-flow diagram of Inter-Korean model using Vensim program. In this study, Air passenger demand was using by the simulation variable value into System Dynamics. This study was difficult to reflect the various variables constituting the North Korea environment, and there is a limit to the occurrence of events in North Korea.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.17-42
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• 2008

This study tried to build a structure model for the Korean flatfish aquaculture market by a system dynamics approach. A pool of several factors to influence the market structure was built. In addition, several reasonable factors related to the flatfish aquaculture market were selected to construct the causal loop diagram (CLD). Then the related stock/flow diagrams of the causal loop diagrams were constructed. This study had been forecasting a production price and supply, demand, and consumption volume for the flatfish market by a monthly basis, and then made some validation to the forecasting. Finally, four governmental policies such as import, storage, reduction of input, and demand control were tentatively evaluated by the created model. As a result, the facts that the demand control policy is most effective, and import and storage policies are moderately effective were found.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.85-86
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• 2022

Traditionally, the facility inspection was visually conducted by the managers, and consequently the result can be subjective because of different perspective and experience of them. To solve this problem, the studies on this topic has tried to integrate the UAS. However, it is still concerned to use in practice due to the lack of analysis of the performance factors affecting the UAS-based facility condition inspection. Hence, the purpose of this study is to identify the critical factors as well as their correlations by modeling causal loop diagram (CLD). A total of 20 variables were derived in four categorized groups, and the relationships were analyzed. Further study will develop a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate various scenarios based on stock-flow diagram through the defined relationships in this study.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.25-49
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• 2013

As global competition for green car, that is environmentally friendly car, is getting tougher, the governments and the related industries are putting their core efforts in its diffusion. However, the green car sales are disappointing so far. To overcome the gridlock, it is necessary to develop concrete analytical framework to understand the diffusion process. Based on causal loop analysis from the previous work, we have identified main variables and relationships of them in the diffusion process and developed a stock-flow diagram and mathematical formula for the main components. The model would be applied for further quantitative simulation on the diffusion process of green car and other innovative goods as well. Also, we have suggested constructive insights for the policy makers and for the related industries. First, it is important to increase consumers' willingness to consider through marketing and word of mouth to accelerate the diffusion process. Second, in the perspective of the industry, the market share of green car should be increased at the earliest possible stage and this could be done by enhancing each components of green car attractiveness(e.g. price, driving range, social infra). Third, companies should develop a balanced investment between consumer and technology sector through a flexible financial policy. Fourth, the government continuously has the role of investing in the related R&D and social infra building. We expect the green car diffusion model and related formula from the research can provide meaningful tools to analyze the diffusion process of other new and innovative goods based on its deep researched literature review.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제45권5호
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• pp.723-732
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• 2015

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for adolescent obesity in Korea that could be used for obesity policy analysis. Methods: On the basis of the casual loop diagram, a model was developed by converting to stock and flow diagram. The Vensim DSS 5.0 program was used in the model development. We simulated method of moments to the calibration of this model with data from The Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey 2005 to 2013. We ran the scenario simulation. Results: This model can be used to understand the current adolescent obesity rate, predict the future obesity rate, and be utilized as a tool for controlling the risk factors. The results of the model simulation match well with the data. It was identified that a proper model, able to predict obesity probability, was established. Conclusion: These results of stock and flow diagram modeling in adolescent obesity can be helpful in development of obesity by policy planners and other stakeholders to better anticipate the multiple effects of interventions in both the short and the long term. In the future we suggest the development of an expanded model based on this adolescent obesity model.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2004년도 하계 학술대회 발표논문집
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• pp.31-51
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• 2004

본 연구에서는 원자력 발전산업의 효율적인 기술개발 전략 수립을 지원하기 위한 모델을 System Dynamics 방법론을 사용하여 개발하였다. 이를 위하여 우선 원자력 발전산업의 기술경쟁력 평가를 위한 변수 및 평가범위를 선정하고, 선정된 변수들의 인과관계를 정성적으로 평가할수 있도록 인과지도(Casual Loop Diagram)를 개발하였으며, 이를 정량화하여 평가할 수 있도록 흐름도(Stock Flow Diagram)를 개발하였다. 개발된 모델을 사용하여 총 연구비 등의 정책관련 변수들을 변화시키면서 시뮬레이션을 수행해보았다. 본 연구의 한 결과로서 기준 시나리오에 대한 분석 결과 2004년 이후의 원자력발전산업 순편익 누적 결과는 다음과 같다. 또한 시나리오별 비교평가를 실시하여 본 결과, 본 연구에서 정의한 순편익 누적(Cumulative Net Profit) 변수를 적용하면 현재 연구비 추세 대비 30% 까지 연구비를 증가시키는 것이 효율적임을 알 수 있었다.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.355-364
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• 2016

Beijing, as a cradle of modern industry and the third largest metropolitan area in China, faces more responsibilities to adjust industrial structure and mitigate carbon emissions. The purpose of this study is aimed at predicting and comparing industrial carbon emissions of Beijing in ten scenarios under different policy focus, and then providing emission-cutting recommendations. In views of various scenarios issues, system dynamics has been applied to predict and simulate. To begin with, the model has been established following the step of causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram. This paper decomposes scenarios factors into energy structure, high energy consumption enterprises and growth rate of industrial output. The prediction and scenario simulation results shows that energy structure, carbon intensity and heavy energy consumption enterprises are key factors, and multiple factors has more significant impact on industrial carbon emissions. Hence, some recommendations about low-carbon mode of Beijing industrial carbon emission have been proposed according to simulation results.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.280-292
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• 2015

Purpose: In this study a system dynamics methodology was used to identify correlation and nonlinear feedback structure among factors affecting unplanned extubation (UE) of ICU patients and to construct and verify a simulation model. Methods: Factors affecting UE were identified through a theoretical background established by reviewing literature and preceding studies and referencing various statistical data. Related variables were decided through verification of content validity by an expert group. A causal loop diagram (CLD) was made based on the variables. Stock & Flow modeling using Vensim PLE Plus Version 6.0b was performed to establish a model for UE. Results: Based on the literature review and expert verification, 18 variables associated with UE were identified and CLD was prepared. From the prepared CLD, a model was developed by converting to the Stock & Flow Diagram. Results of the simulation showed that patient stress, patient in an agitated state, restraint application, patient movability, and individual intensive nursing were variables giving the greatest effect to UE probability. To verify agreement of the UE model with real situations, simulation with 5 cases was performed. Equation check and sensitivity analysis on TIME STEP were executed to validate model integrity. Conclusion: Results show that identification of a proper model enables prediction of UE probability. This prediction allows for adjustment of related factors, and provides basic data do develop nursing interventions to decrease UE.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.79-104
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• 2002

A system dynamics project is going on for forecasting automobile market in Korea. The project is made up of three stages, and the first stage has been wrapped up. As the first attempt, most efforts have been focused on the sound foundation rather than the exact forecast. The model consists of three sectors; the supply sector, the demand sector, and the population sector. The supply sector is a simple stock and flow diagrams representing the supply capacities of all automobile types. The major effort is made on the demand sector and the population sector. The demands are divided into three categories; replacement demands, new demands, and additional demands. The model applies “one car per person" concept, and assumes there will be no additional demands for a while. The replacement demands are calculated based on a simple stock and flow diagram. The new demands are calculated via Bass models; each bass model represents a diffusion for each age group. The population is divided into 101 age groups (age 0 to age 100). The model has been calibrated with past 10 year data (1990 - 1999), and tested for the next two years (2000-2001). The results ware acceptable, although a fine tuning is required. Now the second stage is going on, and most of efforts are made how to incorporate the economic and cultural factors.