• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2022.06a
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• pp.222-229
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• 2022

Although stochastic programming and feedback control approaches could efficiently mitigate the overdue risks caused by inherent uncertainties in ground conditions, the lack of formal representations of planners' rationales for resource allocation still prevents planners from applying these approaches due to the inability to consider comprehensive resource allocation policies for hard rock tunnel projects. To overcome the limitations, the authors developed an ontology that represents the project duration estimation rationales, considering the impacts of ground conditions, excavation methods, project states, resources (i.e., given equipment fleet), and resource allocation policies (RAPs). This ontology consists of 5 main classes with 22 subclasses. It enables planners to explicitly and comprehensively represent the necessary information to rapidly and consistently estimate the excavation durations during construction. 10 rule sets (i.e., policies) are considered and categorized into two types: non-progress-related and progress-related policies. In order to provide simplified information about the remaining durations of phases for progress-related policies, the ontology also represents encoding principles. The estimation of excavation schedules is carried out based on a hypothetical example considering two types of policies. The estimation results reveal the feasibility, potential for flexibility, and comprehensiveness of the developed ontology. Further research to improve the duration estimation methodology is warranted.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.59-74
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• 2022

This study introduces a general reliability-based, performance-based design framework to design frames regarding their uncertainties and user-defined design goals. The Iterative-R method extracted from the main framework can designate a proper R (i.e., response modification factor) satisfying the design goal regarding target reliability index and pre-defined probability of collapse. The proposed methodology is based on FEMA P-695 and can be used for all systems that FEMA P-695 applies. To exemplify the method, multiple three-dimensional, four-story steel special moment-resisting frames are considered. Closed-form relationships are fitted between frames' responses and the modeling parameters. Those fits are used to construct limit state functions to apply reliability analysis methods for design safety assessment and the selection of proper R. The frameworks' unique feature is to consider arbitrarily defined probability density functions of frames' modeling parameters with an insignificant analysis burden. This characteristic enables the alteration in those parameters' distributions to meet the design goal. Furthermore, with sensitivity analysis, the most impactful parameters are identifiable for possible improvements to meet the design goal. In the studied examples, it is revealed that a proper R for frames with different levels of uncertainties could be significantly different from suggested values in design codes, alarming the importance of considering the stochastic behavior of elements' nonlinear behavior.

• Clean Technology
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.145-150
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• 2023

Tele-metering systems have been useful tools for managing domestic wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) over the last decade. They mostly generate water quality data for discharged water to ensure that it complies with mandatory regulations and they may be able to produce every operation parameter and additional measurements in the near future. A sub-big data group, comprised of about 150,000 data points from four domestic WWTPs, was ready to be classified and also analyzed to optimize the WWTP process. We used the Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS) 25 package in order to statistically treat the data with linear regression and correlation analysis. The major independent variables for analysis were water temperature, sludge recycle rate, electricity used, and water quality of the influent while the dependent variables representing the water quality of the effluent included the total nitrogen, which is the most emphasized index for discharged flow in plants. The water temperature and consumed electricity showed a strong correlation with the total nitrogen but the other indices' mutual correlations with other variables were found to be fuzzy due to the large errors involved. In addition, a multilayer perceptron analysis method was applied to TMS data along with root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. This study showed that the RMSE in the SS, T-N, and TOC predictions were in the range of 10% to 20%.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.69-69
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• 2021

From the unprecedented 2011 spring flood, the residens reside by Lake Champlain and Richelieu River encountered enormous damages. The International Joint Committee (IJC) released the Lake Champlain-Richelieu River (LCRR) Plan of Study (PoS). One of the major tasks for the PoS is to investigate the possible scenarios that might happen in the LCRR basin based on the stochastic simulation of the Net Basin Supplies that calculates the amount of flow into the lake and the river. Therefore, the current study proposed a novel apporach that simulate the annual NBS teleconnecting the climate index. The proposed model employed the bivariate empirical decomposition to contamporaneously model the long-term evolution of nonstationary oscillation embeded in the annual NBS and the climate signal (here, Artic Oscillation: AO). In order to represent the variational behavior of NBS correlation structure along with the temporal revolution of the climate index, a new nonstationary parameterization concept is proposed. The results indicate that the proposed model is superior performance in preserving long and short temporal correlation. It can even preserve the hurst coefficient better than any other tested models.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.602-607
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• 2013

Financial risks associated with capital investments are often measured with different feasibility indicators such as the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This paper aims at demonstrating practical applications of probabilistic feasibility analysis techniques for an integrated feasibility evaluation of the IRR and PBP. The IRR and PBP are concurrently analyzed in order to measure the profitability and liquidity, respectively, of a cash flow. The cash flow data of a real wind turbine project is used in the study. The presented approach consists of two phases. First, two newly reported analysis techniques are used to carry out a series of what-if analyses for the IRR and PBP. Second, the relationship between the IRR and PBP is identified using Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that the integrated feasibility evaluation of stochastic cash flows becomes a more viable option with the aide of newly developed probabilistic analysis techniques. It is also shown that the relationship between the IRR and PBP for the wind turbine project can be used as a predictive model for the actual IRR at the end of the service life based on the actual PBP of the project early in the service life.

• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.6-11
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• 2024

This paper presents a motion planning algorithm of autonomous racing vehicles for mimicking the characteristics of a human driver. Time optimal maneuver of a race car has been actively studied as a major research area over the past decades. Although the time optimization problem yields a single time series solution of minimum time maneuver inputs for the vehicle, human drivers achieve similar lap times while taking various racing lines and velocity profiles. In order to model the characteristics of a specific driver and reproduce the motion, a stochastic motion planning framework based on kernelized motion primitive is introduced. The proposed framework imitates the behavior of the generated reference motion, which is based on a small number of human demonstration laps along the racetrack using Gaussian mixture model and Gaussian mixture regression. The mean and covariance of the racing line and velocity profile mimicking the driver are obtained by accumulating the outputs tested at equidistantly sampled input points. The results confirmed that the obtained lateral and longitudinal motion simulates the driver's driving characteristics, which are feasible for actual vehicle test environments.

• Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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• v.1 no.3
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• pp.187-193
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• 2014

One of the hottest challenges in automotive industry is related to weight reduction in sheet metal forming processes, in order to produce a high quality metal part with minimal material cost. Stamping is the most widely used sheet metal forming process; but its implementation comes with several fabrication flaws such as springback and failure. A global and simple approach to circumvent these unwanted process drawbacks consists in optimizing the initial blank shape with innovative methods. The aim of this paper is to introduce an efficient methodology to deal with complex, computationally expensive multicriteria optimization problems. Our approach is based on the combination of methods to capture the Pareto Front, approximate criteria (to save computational costs) and global optimizers. To illustrate the efficiency, we consider the stamping of an industrial workpiece as test-case. Our approach is applied to the springback and failure criteria. To optimize these two criteria, a global optimization algorithm was chosen. It is the Simulated Annealing algorithm hybridized with the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation in order to gain in time and in precision. The multicriteria problems amounts to the capture of the Pareto Front associated to the two criteria. Normal Boundary Intersection and Normalized Normal Constraint Method are considered for generating a set of Pareto-optimal solutions with the characteristic of uniform distribution of front points. The computational results are compared to those obtained with the well-known Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II. The results show that our proposed approach is efficient to deal with the multicriteria shape optimization of highly non-linear mechanical systems.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.49-57
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• 2020

In comparison with the existing static reliability analysis methods, the dynamic reliability analysis(DyRA) method is more suitable for estimating the failure probability of a structure subjected to earthquake excitations because it can take into account the frequency characteristics and damping capacity of the structure. However, the DyRA is known to have an issue of numerical stability due to the uncertainty in random sampling of the earthquake excitations. In order to solve this numerical stability issue in the DyRA approach, this study proposed two earthquake-scale factors. The first factor is defined as the ratio of the first earthquake excitation over the maximum value of the remaining excitations, and the second factor is defined as the condition number of the matrix consisting of the earthquake excitations. Then, we have performed parametric studies of two factors on numerical stability of the DyRA method. In illustrative example, it was clearly confirmed that the two factors can be used to verify the numerical stability of the proposed DyRA method. However, there exists a difference between the two factors. The first factor showed some overlapping region between the stable results and the unstable results so that it requires some additional reliability analysis to guarantee the stability of the DyRA method. On the contrary, the second factor clearly distinguished the stable and unstable results of the DyRA method without any overlapping region. Therefore, the second factor can be said to be better than the first factor as the criterion to determine whether or not the proposed DyRA method guarantees its numerical stability. In addition, the accuracy of the numerical analysis results of the proposed DyRA has been verified in comparison with those of the existing first-order reliability method(FORM), Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method and subset simulation method(SSM). The comparative results confirmed that the proposed DyRA method can provide accurate and reliable estimation of the structural failure probability while maintaining the superior numerical efficiency over the existing methods.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Advanced Composite Structures
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.29-35
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• 2010

In addition to the Young's modulus, the Poisson's ratio is also at the center of attention in the field stochastic finite element analysis since the parameters play an important role in determining structural behavior. Accordingly, the sole effect of this parameter on the response variability is of importance from the perspective of estimation of uncertain response. To this end, a formulation to determine the response variability in laminate composite plates due to the spatial randomness of Poisson's ratio is suggested. The independent contributions of random Poisson's ratiocan be captured in terms of sub-matrices which include the effect of the random parameter in the same order, which can be attained by using the Taylor's series expansion about the mean of the parameter. In order to validate the adequacy of the proposed formulation, several example analyses are performed, and then the results are compared with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A good agreement between the suggested scheme and MCS is observed showing the adequacy of the scheme.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.100-116
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• 1993

It is experienced fact that unreasonable design criterion and unsitable operation management for the agricultural structures including reservoirs based on short terms data of monthly flows have been brought about not only loss of lives, but also enormous property damage. For the solution of this point at issue, this study was conducted to simulate long series of synthetic monthly flows by multi-season first order Markov model with selection of best fitting frequency distribution and to make a comparison of statistical parameters between observed and synthetic flows of six watersheds in Yeong San and Seom Jin river systems. The results obtained through this study can be summarized as follows. 1.Both Gamma and two parameter lognormal distribution were found to be suitable ones for monthly flows in all watersheds by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test while those distributions were judged to be unfitness in Nam Pyeong of Yeong San and Song Jeong and Ab Rog watersheds of Seom Jin river systems in the $\chi$$^2$ goodness of fit test. 2.Most of the arithmetic mean values for synthetic monthly flows simulated by Gamma distribution are much closer to the results of the observed data than those of two parameter lognomal distribution in the applied watersheds. 3.Fluctuation for the coefficient of variation derived by Gamma distribution was shown in general as better agreement with the results of the observed data than that of two parameter lognormal distribution in the applied watersheds both in Yeong San and Seom Jin river systems. Especially, coefficients of variation calculated by Gamma distribution are seemed to be much closer to those of the observed data during July and August. 4.It can be concluded that synthetic monthly flows simulated by Gamma distribution are seemed to be much closer to the observed data than those by two parameter lognormal distribution in the applied watersheds. 5.It is to be desired that multi-season first order Markov model based on Gamma distribution which is confirmed as a good fitting one in this study would be compared with Harmonic synthetic model as a continuation follows.