• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.117-137
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• 2009

Recently, intelligent traffic information systems have enabled people to forecast traffic conditions before hitting the road. These convenient systems operate on the basis of data reflecting current road and traffic conditions as well as distance-based data between locations. Thanks to the rapid development of ubiquitous computing, tremendous context data have become readily available making vehicle route planning easier than ever. Previous research in relation to optimization of vehicle route planning merely focused on finding the optimal distance between locations. Contexts reflecting the road and traffic conditions were then not seriously treated as a way to resolve the optimal routing problems based on distance-based route planning, because this kind of information does not have much significant impact on traffic routing until a a complex traffic situation arises. Further, it was also not easy to take into full account the traffic contexts for resolving optimal routing problems because predicting the dynamic traffic situations was regarded a daunting task. However, with rapid increase in traffic complexity the importance of developing contexts reflecting data related to moving costs has emerged. Hence, this research proposes a framework designed to resolve an optimal route planning problem by taking full account of additional moving cost such as road traffic cost and weather cost, among others. Recent technological development particularly in the ubiquitous computing environment has facilitated the collection of such data. This framework is based on the contexts of time, traffic, and environment, which addresses the following issues. First, we clarify and classify the diverse contexts that affect a vehicle's velocity and estimates the optimization of moving cost based on dynamic programming that accounts for the context cost according to the variance of contexts. Second, the velocity reduction rate is applied to find the optimal route (shortest path) using the context data on the current traffic condition. The velocity reduction rate infers to the degree of possible velocity including moving vehicles' considerable road and traffic contexts, indicating the statistical or experimental data. Knowledge generated in this papercan be referenced by several organizations which deal with road and traffic data. Third, in experimentation, we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed context-based optimal route (shortest path) between locations by comparing it to the previously used distance-based shortest path. A vehicles' optimal route might change due to its diverse velocity caused by unexpected but potential dynamic situations depending on the road condition. This study includes such context variables as 'road congestion', 'work', 'accident', and 'weather' which can alter the traffic condition. The contexts can affect moving vehicle's velocity on the road. Since these context variables except for 'weather' are related to road conditions, relevant data were provided by the Korea Expressway Corporation. The 'weather'-related data were attained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. The aware contexts are classified contexts causing reduction of vehicles' velocity which determines the velocity reduction rate. To find the optimal route (shortest path), we introduced the velocity reduction rate in the context for calculating a vehicle's velocity reflecting composite contexts when one event synchronizes with another. We then proposed a context-based optimal route (shortest path) algorithm based on the dynamic programming. The algorithm is composed of three steps. In the first initialization step, departure and destination locations are given, and the path step is initialized as 0. In the second step, moving costs including composite contexts into account between locations on path are estimated using the velocity reduction rate by context as increasing path steps. In the third step, the optimal route (shortest path) is retrieved through back-tracking. In the provided research model, we designed a framework to account for context awareness, moving cost estimation (taking both composite and single contexts into account), and optimal route (shortest path) algorithm (based on dynamic programming). Through illustrative experimentation using the Wilcoxon signed rank test, we proved that context-based route planning is much more effective than distance-based route planning., In addition, we found that the optimal solution (shortest paths) through the distance-based route planning might not be optimized in real situation because road condition is very dynamic and unpredictable while affecting most vehicles' moving costs. For further study, while more information is needed for a more accurate estimation of moving vehicles' costs, this study still stands viable in the applications to reduce moving costs by effective route planning. For instance, it could be applied to deliverers' decision making to enhance their decision satisfaction when they meet unpredictable dynamic situations in moving vehicles on the road. Overall, we conclude that taking into account the contexts as a part of costs is a meaningful and sensible approach to in resolving the optimal route problem.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.265-274
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• 2021

Outlier detection research in ocean data has traditionally been performed using statistical and distance-based machine learning algorithms. Recently, AI-based methods have received a lot of attention and so-called supervised learning methods that require classification information for data are mainly used. This supervised learning method requires a lot of time and costs because classification information (label) must be manually designated for all data required for learning. In this study, an autoencoder based on unsupervised learning was applied as an outlier detection to overcome this problem. For the experiment, two experiments were designed: one is univariate learning, in which only SST data was used among the observation data of Deokjeok Island and the other is multivariate learning, in which SST, air temperature, wind direction, wind speed, air pressure, and humidity were used. Period of data is 25 years from 1996 to 2020, and a pre-processing considering the characteristics of ocean data was applied to the data. An outlier detection of actual SST data was tried with a learned univariate and multivariate autoencoder. We tried to detect outliers in real SST data using trained univariate and multivariate autoencoders. To compare model performance, various outlier detection methods were applied to synthetic data with artificially inserted errors. As a result of quantitatively evaluating the performance of these methods, the multivariate/univariate accuracy was about 96%/91%, respectively, indicating that the multivariate autoencoder had better outlier detection performance. Outlier detection using an unsupervised learning-based autoencoder is expected to be used in various ways in that it can reduce subjective classification errors and cost and time required for data labeling.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.21-35
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• 2023

Expectations surrounding generative AI technology and its profound ramifications are sweeping across various industrial domains. Given the anticipated pivotal role of the startup ecosystem in the utilization and advancement of generative AI technology, it is imperative to cultivate a deeper comprehension of the present state and distinctive attributes characterizing venture capital (VC) investments within this domain. The current investigation delves into South Korea's landscape of VC investment deals and prognosticates the projected VC investments by juxtaposing these against the United States, the frontrunner in the generative AI industry and its associated ecosystem. For analytical purposes, a compilation of 286 investment deals originating from 117 U.S. generative AI startups spanning the period from 2008 to 2023, as well as 144 investment deals from 42 South Korean generative AI startups covering the years 2011 to 2023, was amassed to construct new datasets. The outcomes of this endeavor reveal an upward trajectory in the count of VC investment deals within both the U.S. and South Korea during recent years. Predominantly, these deals have been concentrated within the early-stage investment realm. Noteworthy disparities between the two nations have also come to light. Specifically, in the U.S., in contrast to South Korea, the quantum of recent VC deals has escalated, marking an augmentation ranging from 285% to 488% in the corresponding developmental stage. While the interval between disparate investment stages demonstrated a slight elongation in South Korea relative to the U.S., this discrepancy did not achieve statistical significance. Furthermore, the proportion of VC investments channeled into generative AI enterprises, relative to the aggregate number of deals, exhibited a higher quotient in South Korea compared to the U.S. Upon a comprehensive sectoral breakdown of generative AI, it was discerned that within the U.S., 59.2% of total deals were concentrated in the text and model sectors, whereas in South Korea, 61.9% of deals centered around the video, image, and chat sectors. Through forecasting, the anticipated VC investments in South Korea from 2023 to 2029 were derived via four distinct models, culminating in an estimated average requirement of 3.4 trillion Korean won (ranging from at least 2.408 trillion won to a maximum of 5.919 trillion won). This research bears pragmatic significance as it methodically dissects VC investments within the generative AI domain across both the U.S. and South Korea, culminating in the presentation of an estimated VC investment projection for the latter. Furthermore, its academic significance lies in laying the groundwork for prospective scholarly inquiries by dissecting the current landscape of generative AI VC investments, a sphere that has hitherto remained void of rigorous academic investigation supported by empirical data. Additionally, the study introduces two innovative methodologies for the prediction of VC investment sums. Upon broader integration, application, and refinement of these methodologies within diverse academic explorations, they stand poised to enhance the prognosticative capacity pertaining to VC investment costs.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.