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Prediction of Long-term Solar Activity based on Fractal Dimension Method

  • Kim, Rok-Soon
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제41권1호
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    • pp.45.3-46
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    • 2016
  • Solar activity shows a self-similarity as it has many periods of activity cycle in the time series of long-term observation, such as 13.5, 51, 150, 300 days, and 11, 88 years and so on. Since fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter for this kind of an irregular time series, we applied this method to long-term observations including sunspot number, total solar irradiance, and 3.75 GHz solar radio flux to predict the start and maximum times as well as expected maximum sunspot number for the next solar cycle. As a result, we found that the radio flux data tend to have lower fractal dimensions than the sunspot number data, which means that the radio emission from the sun is more regular than the solar activity expressed by sunspot number. Based on the relation between radio flux of 3.75 GHz and sunspot number, we could calculate the expected maximum sunspot number of solar cycle 24 as 156, while the observed value is 146. For the maximum time, estimated mean values from 7 different observations are January 2013 and this is quite different to observed value of February 2014. We speculate this is from extraordinary extended properties of solar cycle 24. As the cycle length of solar cycle 24, 10.1 to 12.8 years are expected, and the mean value is 11.0. This implies that the next solar cycle will be started at December 2019.

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광센서를 이용한 제상제어 방법에 대한 연구 (A Study of the Defrosting Control in the Application of Photoelectric Sensors)

  • 전창덕
    • 설비공학논문집
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2017
  • This study attempted to investigate the value of photoelectric sensors in terms of a defrost-control method. Tests were conducted in a calorimeter room under the heating with the defrost-performance test conditions described in KS C 9306. Accordingly, the photoelectric technology is a competitive defrost-control method that can precisely control the operational defrost cycle using the output voltages that are proportional to the frost height. The heating period is gradually reduced because the complex defrost-control method, for which the sensors initiate the defrosting process and the defrosting process is terminated by the time parameter, could not adjust the net defrosting time by itself. Therefore, a complex defrost-control method, for which the photoelectric sensors start the defrosting process and it is terminated by the temperature parameter, is preferred because of the adjustment of the net defrosting time. Regardless of the defrost-control method, the first defrosting cycle is activated earlier than the times that are determined in the second and third cycles and so on, because the first operation cycle can decide the characteristics of the subsequent cycle.

Clustering and traveling waves in the Monte Carlo criticality simulation of decoupled and confined media

  • Dumonteil, Eric;Bruna, Giovanni;Malvagi, Fausto;Onillon, Anthony;Richet, Yann
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권6호
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    • pp.1157-1164
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    • 2017
  • The Monte Carlo criticality simulation of decoupled systems, as for instance in large reactor cores, has been a challenging issue for a long time. In particular, due to limited computer time resources, the number of neutrons simulated per generation is still many order of magnitudes below realistic statistics, even during the start-up phases of reactors. This limited number of neutrons triggers a strong clustering effect of the neutron population that affects Monte Carlo tallies. Below a certain threshold, not only is the variance affected but also the estimation of the eigenvectors. In this paper we will build a time-dependent diffusion equation that takes into account both spatial correlations and population control (fixed number of neutrons along generations). We will show that its solution obeys a traveling wave dynamic, and we will discuss the mechanism that explains this biasing of local tallies whenever leakage boundary conditions are applied to the system.

거리 측정 시스템의 정밀도 향상을 위한 카운터 회로의 설계 (Design of Counter Circuit for Improving Precision in Distance Measuring System)

  • 최진호
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제24권7호
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    • pp.885-890
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    • 2020
  • 거리측정 시스템에서 사용되는 시간-디지털 변환회로는 시작신호와 멈춤신호 사이의 시간 간격을 이용하여 거리를 측정한다. 응답속도를 고려한 시간 간격은 일반적으로 카운터 회로를 이용하여 디지털 정보로 변환한다. 그러므로 정밀도 향상을 위해서는 높은 주파수의 클록 신호가 요구되며, 미세 거리의 측정을 위해서도 높은 주파수의 클록 신호가 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 동일한 주파수를 사용하면서도 거리 측정의 정밀도를 높이기 위한 카운터 회로를 설계하였다. 회로의 설계는 0.18㎛ CMOS 공정을 이용하였으며, 설계된 회로의 동작은 HSPICE 시뮬레이션을 통하여 확인하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과 일반적인 카운터 회로를 사용한 경우에 비해 4배의 향상된 정밀도를 얻을 수 있었다.

아파트 개발 프로젝트의 수익 리스크 관리모델에 관한 기초연구 (A Basic Study on the Development of Profit Risk Management Model for Apartment Projects)

  • 손승현;이성호;한범진;나영주;김지명
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 가을 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.215-216
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    • 2022
  • Profit, the performance of an apartment development project, is directly affected by the sales ratio, unit sale price, financial costs, land costs and construction costs. However, these factors fluctuate in response to changes in the environment, including various stake holders, and the profits fluctuate as a result. In order to ensure that profits are managed within target levels, these factors must be able to be predicted, controlled and monitored and managed up to the start, sale, and end stages of the project. The purpose of this study is to develop a profit risk management model for apartment development projects. The results of this study will contribute to the establishment of academic basis for the dynamic management of project profits that fluctuate with time and environment. And in practice, it will help project developers manage their business revenue to the proper level. In addition, the risks that occur from time to time can be identified quantitatively and visually, and it is expected that it will be easier to derive consensus points for smooth business progress by reducing conflicts of interest among stakeholders.

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Maximizing Concurrency and Analyzable Timing Behavior in Component-Oriented Real-Time Distributed Computing Application Systems

  • Kim, Kwang-Hee Kane;Colmenares, Juan A.
    • Journal of Computing Science and Engineering
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.56-73
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    • 2007
  • Demands have been growing in safety-critical application fields for producing networked real-time embedded computing (NREC) systems together with acceptable assurances of tight service time bounds (STBs). Here a service time can be defined as the amount of time that the NREC system could take in accepting a request, executing an appropriate service method, and returning a valid result. Enabling systematic composition of large-scale NREC systems with STB certifications has been recognized as a highly desirable goal by the research community for many years. An appealing approach for pursuing such a goal is to establish a hard-real-time (HRT) component model that contains its own STB as an integral part. The TMO (Time-Triggered Message-Triggered Object) programming scheme is one HRT distributed computing (DC) component model established by the first co-author and his collaborators over the past 15 years. The TMO programming scheme has been intended to be an advanced high-level RT DC programming scheme that enables development of NREC systems and validation of tight STBs of such systems with efforts far smaller than those required when any existing lower-level RT DC programming scheme is used. An additional goal is to enable maximum exploitation of concurrency without damaging any major structuring and execution approaches adopted for meeting the first two goals. A number of previously untried program structuring approaches and execution rules were adopted from the early development stage of the TMO scheme. This paper presents new concrete justifications for those approaches and rules, and also discusses new extensions of the TMO scheme intended to enable further exploitation of concurrency in NREC system design and programming.

시간-주파수 해석법에 의한 $J_{IC}$결정에 관한 연구 (A Study on Determination of $J_{IC}$ by Time-Frequency Analysis Method)

  • 남기우;안석환;김봉규
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.765-771
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    • 2001
  • Elastic-plastic fracture toughness JIC can be used a s an effective design criterion in elastic-plastic fracture mechanics. Among the JIC test methods approved by ASTM, unloading compliance method was used in this study. In order to examine the relationship between fracture behavior of JIC test and AE signals, the post processing of AE signals has been carried out by Short Time Fourier Transform(STFT), one of the time-frequency analysis methods. The objective of this study is to evaluate the application of characterization of AE signals for unloading compliance method of JIC test. As a result of time-frequency analysis, we could extract the AE from the raw signal and analyze the frequencies in AE signal at the same time. AE signal generated by elastic-plastic fracture of material has some different aspects at elastic and plastic ranges, or the first portion of crack growth by fracture. First of all, increased energy recorded and detected by using AE count method increase rapidly from the start of ductile fracture. The variation of main frequency range with time-frequency analysis method could be confirmed. We could know fracture behavior of interior material by examination AE characteristics generated in real-time when elastic-plastic fracture occurred in material under loading.

Experimental and numerical investigation of closure time during artificial ground freezing with vertical flow

  • Jin, Hyunwoo;Go, Gyu-Hyun;Ryu, Byung Hyun;Lee, Jangguen
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.433-445
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    • 2021
  • Artificial ground freezing (AGF) is a commonly used geotechnical support technique that can be applied in any soil type and has low environmental impact. Experimental and numerical investigations have been conducted to optimize AGF for application in diverse scenarios. Precise simulation of groundwater flow is crucial to improving the reliability these investigations' results. Previous experimental research has mostly considered horizontal seepage flow, which does not allow accurate calculation of the groundwater flow velocity due to spatial variation of the piezometric head. This study adopted vertical seepage flow-which can maintain a constant cross-sectional area-to eliminate the limitations of using horizontal seepage flow. The closure time is a measure of the time taken for an impermeable layer to begin to form, this being the time for a frozen soil-ice wall to start forming adjacent to the freeze pipes; this is of great importance to applied AGF. This study reports verification of the reliability of our experimental apparatus and measurement system using only water, because temperature data could be measured while freezing was observed visually. Subsequent experimental AFG tests with saturated sandy soil were also performed. From the experimental results, a method of estimating closure time is proposed using the inflection point in the thermal conductivity difference between pore water and pore ice. It is expected that this estimation method will be highly applicable in the field. A further parametric study assessed factors influencing the closure time using a two-dimensional coupled thermo-hydraulic numerical analysis model that can simulate the AGF of saturated sandy soil considering groundwater flow. It shows that the closure time is affected by factors such as hydraulic gradient, unfrozen permeability, particle thermal conductivity, and freezing temperature. Among these factors, changes in the unfrozen permeability and particle thermal conductivity have less effect on the formation of frozen soil-ice walls when the freezing temperature is sufficiently low.

Development and validation of a difficulty index for mandibular third molars with extraction time

  • Ku, Jeong-Kui;Chang, Na-Hee;Jeong, Yeong-Kon;Baik, Sung Hyun;Choi, Sun-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • 제46권5호
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    • pp.328-334
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: This study aimed to validate the effectiveness of a recently proposed difficulty index for removal of impacted mandibular third molars based on extraction time and suggest a modified difficulty index including the presence of pathologic conditions associated with third molars. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study enrolled 65 male patients younger than 25 years with third molars. Extraction time was calculated from start of the incision to the last suture. The difficulty scores for third molars were based on spatial relationship (1-5 points), depth (1-4 points), and ramus relationship (1-3 points) using cone-beam computed tomography. The difficulty index was defined as follows: I (3-4 points), II (5-7 points), III (8-10 points), and IV (11-12 points). The modified difficulty score was calculated by adding one point to the difficulty score if the third molar was associated with a pathologic condition. Two modified difficulty indices, based on the presence of pathologic conditions, were as follows: the half-level up difficulty index (HDI) and the one-level up difficulty index (ODI) from the recently proposed difficulty index. Results: The correlations between extraction time and difficulty index and or modified difficulty indices were significant (P<0.001). The correlation coefficient between extraction time and difficulty index was 0.584. The correlation coefficients between extraction time and HDI and ODI were 0.728 and 0.764, respectively. Conclusion: Extraction time of impacted third molars exhibited a moderate correlation with difficulty index and was strongly correlated with the modified indices. Considering the clinical implications, the difficulty index of surgical extraction should take into consideration the pathologic conditions associated with third molars.

부동산 경매 낙찰가율 시계열의 Chaos 분석 (Chaos analysis of real estate auction sale price rate time series)

  • 강준;김지우;이현준;오경주
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.371-381
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    • 2017
  • 국내에서 부동산 경매 낙찰가율 데이터를 활용한 Chaos 분석 연구는 전무하다. 부동산 경매분야의 데이터가 충분히 누적됨에 따라 부동산 경매 낙찰가율 시계열 분석의 의미가 커지게 되었다. 본 연구에서는 Hurst 지수, 상관차원, maximum Lyapunov 지수, 이 3가지 Chaos 분석기법을 활용하여 낙찰가율의 비선형 결정론적 동역학계적 특성을 확인하고, Chaos 분석을 통하여 얻은 결과와 실무 데이터를 비교하여, 함의를 도출한다. 높은 Hurst 지수에 따르는 추세와, maximum Lyapunov 지수의 측정을 통한 지속성, 그리고 상관차원 분석의 결과에 따라 time lag가 개시결정일에서 낙찰일, 배당요구종기일에서 낙찰일까지와 일치하는 점으로부터, Chaos 분석이 낙찰가율의 움직임을 예측하는데 유용함을 확인할 수 있었다.