• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.20-24
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• 1976

The higher develops the industrial techniques, the more reliability of mac hi nary, equipments and systems want the consumers. So, it is a key to succeed in the new-product development that the consumers can put reliance on the product to be made in the product design stage. This study intends to help the product designer and the system manager by presenting them better reliability prediction techniques. For this purpose, the author built some fundamental reliability system models. And then predict the system reliability by estimating the elemental component's failure rate ${\lambda}_i$, and proposed an evaluation model. And also, a system is wrong according to the component's characteristics' degradation, we must estimate the degradation failure rate (average and standard deviation). For this, the "Moment method" is used.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.111-119
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• 2015

In the initial ship design stage, performance predictions are generally carried out before and after the hull form design. The former is based on the main dimensions and power information, and the latter is based on the geometry of the hull form and propeller. This paper deals with the practical application of neural networks for the prediction of a ship's performance factors before and after the hull form design. For this, the hull form parameters that affect the performance are studied, and an optimal neural network structure based on the SSMB database is constructed. By comparing the results predicted by neural networks and the model test results, we confirmed that neural networks can be applied to practically evaluate the performance in the initial ship design stage.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.65-84
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• 2002

The Observational Method proposed by Terzaghi can be applied for the safe and economic construction projects where the exact prediction of the behavior of the structures is difficult as in the underground excavation. The method consists of measuring lateral displacement, ground settlement and axial force of supports in the earlier stage of the construction and back analysis technique to find the best fit design parameters such as earth pressure coefficient, subgrade reaction etc, which will minimize the gap between calculated displacement and measured displacement. With the results, more reliable prediction of the later stage can be obtained. In this study, back analysis programs using the Direct Method, based on the Hill Climbing Method were made and evaluated, and to overcome the limits of the method, Genetic Algorithm(GA) was applied and tested for the actual construction cases.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.43 no.1 s.145
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• pp.68-74
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• 2006

The welding distortion of a hull structure in the shipbuilding industry is inevitable at each assembly stage. This geometric inaccuracy caused by the welding distortion tends to preclude the introduction of automation and mechanization and needs the additional man-hours for the adjusting work at the following assembly stage. To overcome this problem, a distortion control method should be applied. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop an accurate prediction method which can explicitly account for the influence of various factors on the welding distortion. The validity of the prediction method must be also clarified through experiments. For the purpose of reducing the weld-induced bending deflection, this paper proposes the mechanical tensioning method (MTM) as the optimum distortion control method. The validity of this method has been substantiated by a number of numerical simulations and actual measurements.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.8-13
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• 2019

Smart Farming has been regarded as an important application in information and communications technology (ICT) fields. Selecting crops for cultivation at the pre-production stage is critical for agricultural producers' final profits because over-production and under-production may result in uncountable losses, and it is necessary to predict crop production to prevent these losses. The ITU-T Recommendation for Smart Farming (Y.4450/Y.2238) defines plan/production consultation service at the pre-production stage; this type of service must trace crop production in a predictive way. Several research papers present that machine learning technology can be applied to predict crop production after related data are learned, but these technologies have little to do with standardized ICT services. This paper clarifies the relationship between agricultural consultation services and predicting crop production. A prediction scheme is proposed, and the results confirm the usability and superiority of machine learning for predicting crop production.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.83-97
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• 2024

It is important to make reasonable prediction about the long-term deformation of high rockfill geostructures. However, the deformation is usually underestimated using the rockfill parameters obtained from laboratory tests due to different size effects, which make it necessary to identify parameters from in-situ monitoring data. This paper proposes a novel hybrid back-analysis method with a modified objective function defined for the time-dependent back-analysis problem. The method consists of two stages. In the first stage, an improved weighted average method is proposed to quickly narrow the search region; while in the second stage, an adaptive response surface method is proposed to iteratively search for the satisfactory solution, with a technique that can adaptively consider the translation, contraction or expansion of the exploration region. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed hybrid back-analysis method is demonstrated by back-analyzing the long-term deformation of two high embankments constructed for airport runways, with the rockfills being modeled by a rheological model considering the influence of stress states on the creep behavior.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.137-147
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• 2013

For the effective management of groundwater resources, it is necessary to predict groundwater level fluctuations in response to rainfall events. In the present study, time series models using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs) have been developed and applied to groundwater level data from the Gasan, Shingwang, and Cheongseong stations of the National Groundwater Monitoring Network. We designed four types of model according to input structure and compared their performances. The results show that the rainfall input model is not effective, especially for the prediction of groundwater recession behavior; however, the rainfall-groundwater input model is effective for the entire prediction stage, yielding a high model accuracy. Recursive prediction models were also effective, yielding correlation coefficients of 0.75-0.95 with observed values. The prediction errors were highest for Shingwang station, where the cross-correlation coefficient is lowest among the stations. Overall, the model performance of SVM models was slightly higher than that of ANN models for all cases. Assessment of the model parameter uncertainty of the recursive prediction models, using the ratio of errors in the validation stage to that in the calibration stage, showed that the range of the ratio is much narrower for the SVM models than for the ANN models, which implies that the SVM models are more stable and effective for the present case studies.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.251-261
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• 2022

As AI has a wide range of influence on human social life, issues of transparency and ethics of AI are emerging. In particular, it is widely known that due to the existence of historical bias in data against ethics or regulatory frameworks for fairness, trained AI models based on such biased data could also impose bias or unfairness against a certain sensitive group (e.g., non-white, women). Demographic disparities due to AI, which refer to socially unacceptable bias that an AI model favors certain groups (e.g., white, men) over other groups (e.g., black, women), have been observed frequently in many applications of AI and many studies have been done recently to develop AI algorithms which remove or alleviate such demographic disparities in trained AI models. In this paper, we consider a problem of using the information in the sensitive variable for fair prediction when using the sensitive variable as a part of input variables is prohibitive by laws or regulations to avoid unfairness. As a way of reflecting the information in the sensitive variable to prediction, we consider a two-stage procedure. First, the sensitive variable is fully included in the learning phase to have a prediction model depending on the sensitive variable, and then an imputed sensitive variable is used in the prediction phase. The aim of this paper is to evaluate this procedure by analyzing several benchmark datasets. We illustrate that using an imputed sensitive variable is helpful to improve prediction accuracies without hampering the degree of fairness much.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.37-39
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• 2000

The purpose of this paper is to present a neural network model based on change-point detection for the prediction of the U.S. Treasury Securities. Interest rates have been studied by a number of researchers since they strongly affect other economic and financial parameters. Contrary to other chaotic financial data, the movement of interest rates has a series of change points due to the monetary policy of the U.S. government. The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to use them in interest rates forecasting. The proposed model consists of three stages. The first stage is to detect successive change points in the interest rates dataset. The second stage is to forecast the change-point group with the backpropagation neural network (BPN). The final stage is to forecast the output with BPN. This study then examines the predictability of the integrated neural network model for interest rates forecasting using change-point detection.

• The Journal of Information Technology
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.13-22
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• 1999

In this paper, we purpose automatic diagnosis in online, as the fundamental study to diagnose the partial discharge mechanism and to predict the lifetime by introduction a neural network. In the proposed method, we use AE(acoustic emission) sensing system and calculate a quantitative statistic parameter by pulse number and amplitude. Using statically parameters such as the center of gravity(G) and the gradient if the discharge distribute(C), we analyzed the early stage and the middle stage. the quantitative statistic parameters are learned by a neural network. The diagnosis of insulation degradation and a lifetime prediction by the early stage time are achieved. On the basis of revealed excellent diagnosis ability through the neural network learning for the patterns during degradation, it was proved that the neural network is appropriate for degradation diagnosis and lifetime prediction in partial discharge.