• Title/Summary/Keyword: stage prediction

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A Study on Improving the Precision of Quantitative Prediction of Cold Forging Die Life Cycle Through Real Time Forging Load Measurement (실시간 성형하중 계측을 통한 냉간단조 금형수명 정량예측 정밀도 향상 연구)

  • Seo, Y.H.
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.172-178
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    • 2021
  • The cold forging process induces material deformation in an enclosed space, generating a very high forging load. Therefore, it is mainly designed as a multi-stage process, and fatigue failure occurs in forging die due to cyclic load. Studies have been conducted previously to quantitatively predict the fatigue limit of cold forging dies, however, there was a limit to field application due to the large error range and the need for expert intervention. To solve this problem, we conducted a study on the introduction of a real-time forging load measurement technology and an automated system for quantitative prediction of die life cycle. As a result, it was possible to reduce the error range of the quantitative prediction of die life cycle to within ±7%, and it became possible to use the die life cycle calculation algorithm into an automated system.

Bankruptcy Prediction with Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Early-Stage Business Models

  • Tuguldur Enkhtuya;Dae-Ki Kang
    • International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.58-65
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    • 2023
  • Bankruptcy is a significant risk for start-up companies, but with the help of cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology, we can now predict bankruptcy with detailed explanations. In this paper, we implemented the Category Boosting algorithm following data cleaning and editing using OpenRefine. We further explained our model using the Shapash library, incorporating domain knowledge. By leveraging the 5C's credit domain knowledge, financial analysts in banks or investors can utilize the detailed results provided by our model to enhance their decision-making processes, even without extensive knowledge about AI. This empowers investors to identify potential bankruptcy risks in their business models, enabling them to make necessary improvements or reconsider their ventures before proceeding. As a result, our model serves as a "glass-box" model, allowing end-users to understand which specific financial indicators contribute to the prediction of bankruptcy. This transparency enhances trust and provides valuable insights for decision-makers in mitigating bankruptcy risks.

FORECASTING THE COST AND DURATION OF SCHOOL RECONSTRUCTION PROJECTS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

  • Ying-Hua Huang ;Wei Tong Chen;Shih-Chieh Chan
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.913-916
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents the development of Artificial Neural Network models for forecasting the cost and contract duration of school reconstruction projects to assist the planners' decision-making in the early stage of the projects. 132 schools reconstruction projects in central Taiwan, which received the most serious damage from the Chi-Chi Earthquake, were collected. The developed Artificial Neural Network prediction models demonstrate good prediction abilities with average error rates under 10% for school reconstruction projects. The analytical results indicate that the Artificial Neural Network model with back-propagation learning is a feasible method to produce accurate prediction results to assist planners' decision-making process.

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Shape, Volume Prediction Modeling and Identical Weights Cutting for Frozen Fishes (동결생선의 외형과 부피 예측 모델링 및 정중량 절단)

  • Hyun, Soo-Hwan;Lee, Sung-Choon;Kim, Kyung-Hwan;Seo, Ki-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.294-299
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    • 2012
  • This paper suggests a modeling technique for shape and volume prediction of fishes to cut them with identical weights for group meals. The measurement and prediction of frozen fishes for group meals are very difficult because they have a bending deformation occurring at frozen stage and a hollow by eliminating the internals. Besides there exist twinkles problem of surface caused by freeze and variable weights by moisture conditions. Therefore a complex estimation algorithm is necessary to predict the shape and volume prediction of fishes exactly. Hollow prediction, pattern classification and modeling for tails using neural network, integration based volume prediction algorithm are suggested and combined to solve those problems. In order to validate the proposed method, the experiments of 3-dimensional measurement, volume prediction and fish cutting for spanish mackerel, saury, and mackerel are executed. The cutting experiments for real fish are executed.

A Study on the Construction of an Artificial Neural Network for the Experimental Model Transition of Surface Roughness Prediction Results based on Theoretical Models in Mold Machining (금형의 절삭가공에서 이론 모형 기반 표면거칠기 예측 결과의 실험적 모형 전환을 위한 인공신경망 구축에 대한 연구)

  • Ji-Woo Kim;Dong-Won Lee;Jong-Sun Kim;Jong-Su Kim
    • Design & Manufacturing
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2023
  • In the fabrication of curved multi-display glass for automotive use, the surface roughness of the mold is a critical quality factor. However, the difficulty in detecting micro-cutting signals in a micro-machining environment and the absence of a standardized model for predicting micro-cutting forces make it challenging to intuitively infer the correlation between cutting variables and actual surface roughness under machining conditions. Consequently, current practices heavily rely on machining condition optimization through the utilization of cutting models and experimental research for force prediction. To overcome these limitations, this study employs a surface roughness prediction formula instead of a cutting force prediction model and converts the surface roughness prediction formula into experimental data. Additionally, to account for changes in surface roughness during machining runtime, the theory of position variables has been introduced. By leveraging artificial neural network technology, the accuracy of the surface roughness prediction formula model has improved by 98%. Through the application of artificial neural network technology, the surface roughness prediction formula model, with enhanced accuracy, is anticipated to reliably perform the derivation of optimal machining conditions and the prediction of surface roughness in various machining environments at the analytical stage.

A Prediction Model for Stage of Change of Exercise In the Korean Elderly -Based on the Transtheoretical Model- (한국노인의 운동행위 변화단계의 예측모형구축 -범이론적 모델(Transtheoretical Model)을 기반으로-)

  • 김순용;김소인;전영자;이평숙;이숙자;박은숙;장성옥
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.366-379
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study was to identify causal relationships among variables of transtheoretical model for exercise in the elderly A predictivel model explaining the stage of change was constructed based on a transtheoretical model. Empirical data for testing the hypothetical model was collected from 198 old adults over 60 years old in a community setting in Seoul, Korea in April and May,1999. Data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and correlational analysis using pc-SAS program. The Linear Structural Modeling (LISREL) 8.0 program was used to find the best fit model which predicts causal relationship of variables. The fit of the hypothetical model to the data was X2=132.85. (df=22, p=.000). GFI=.88, NNFI=.35, NFI=.77, AGFI=.59 which was not favorable but the fit of modified model to the data was X2=46.90. (df=27, p=.01).GFI= .95, NNFI=.91, NFI=.92, AGFI=.87) which was more than moderate. The predictable variables of stage of change for exercise of the Korean elderly were helping relationship, self cognitive determination, conversion of negative condition in process of change and efficacy for exercise. These variables explained 68% of stage of change for exercise of the Korean elderly.

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Two-stage variable block-size multiresolution motion estiation in the wavelet transform domain (웨이브렛 변환영역에서의 2단계 가변 블록 다해상도 움직임 추정)

  • 김성만;이규원;정학진;박규태
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.1487-1504
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, the two-stage variable block-size multiresolution motion algorithm is proposed for an interframe coding scheme in the wavelet decomposition. An optimal bit allocagion between motion vectors and the prediction error in sense of minimizing the total bit rate is obtained by the proposed algorithm. The proposed algorithm consists of two stages for motion estimatation and only the first stage can be separated and run on its own. The first stage of the algorithm introduces a new method to give the lower bit rate of the displaced frame difference as well as a smooth motion field. In the second stage of the algorithm, the technique is introduced to have more accurate motion vectors in detailed areas, and to decrease the number of motion vectors in uniform areas. The algorithm aims at minimizin gthe total bit rate which is sum of the motion vectors and the displaced frame difference. The optimal bit allocation between motion vectors and displaced frame difference is accomplished by reducing the number of motion vectors in uniform areas and it is based on a botom-up construction of a quadtree. An entropy criterion aims at the control of merge operation. Simulation resuls show that the algorithm lends itself to the wavelet based image sequence coding and outperforms the conventional scheme by up to the maximum 0.28 bpp.

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