• Title/Summary/Keyword: speed estimation error

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Analysis of Shipping Markets Using VAR and VECM Models (VAR과 VECM 모형을 이용한 해운시장 분석)

  • Byoung-Wook Ko
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.69-88
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of cargo volume (demand), ship fleet (supply), and freight rate (price) of container, dry bulk, and tanker shipping markets by using the VAR and VECM models. This analysis is expected to enhance the statistical understanding of market dynamics, which is perceived by the actual experiences of market participants. The common statistical patterns, which are all shown in the three shipping markets, are as follows: 1) The Granger-causality test reveals that the past increase of fleet variable induces the present decrease of freight rate variable. 2) The impulse-response analysis shows that cargo shock increases the freight rate but fleet shock decreases the freight rate. 3) Among the three cargo, fleet, and freight rate shocks, the freight rate shock is overwhelmingly largest. 4) The comparison of adjR2 reveals that the fleet variable is most explained by the endogenous variables, i.e., cargo, fleet, and freight rate in each of shipping markets. 5) The estimation of co-integrating vectors shows that the increase of cargo increases the freight rate but the increase of fleet decreases the freight rate. 6) The estimation of adjustment speed demonstrates that the past-period positive deviation from the long-run equilibrium freight rate induces the decrease of present freight rate.

Algorithm and Performance Evaluation of High-speed Distinction for Condition Recognition of Defective Nut (불량 너트의 상태인식을 위한 고속 판별 알고리즘 및 성능평가)

  • Park, Tae-Jin;Lee, Un-Seon;Lee, Sang-Hee;Park, Man-Gon
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.895-904
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    • 2011
  • In welding machine that executes existing spot welding, wrong operation of system has often occurs because of their mechanical motion that can be caused by a number of supply like the welding object. In exposed working environment for various situations such as worker or related equipment moving into any place that we are unable to exactly distinguish between good and not condition of nut. Also, in case of defective welding of nut, it needs various evaluation and analysis through image processing because the problem that worker should be inspected every single manually. Therefore in this paper, if the object was not stabilization state correctly, we have purpose to algorithm implementation that it is to reduce the analysis time and exact recognition as to improve system of image processing. As this like, as image analysis for assessment whether it is good or not condition of nut, in his paper, implemented algorithms were suggested and list by group and that it showed the effectiveness through more than one experiment. As the result, recognition rate of normality and error according to the estimation time have been shown as 40%~94.6% and 60%~5.4% from classification 1 of group 1 to classification 11 of group 5, and that estimation time of minimum, maximum, and average have been shown as 1.7sec.~0.08sec., 3.6sec.~1.2sec., and 2.5sec.~0.1sec.

Analysis of Performance of Digital Retrodirective Antenna Technology in High-Speed Rail (고속 철도 환경에서의 디지털 역지향성 안테나 기술 성능 분석)

  • Bok, Junyeong;Lee, Seung Hwan;Shin, Dong Jin;Ryu, Heung-Gyoon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.23 no.11
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    • pp.1264-1271
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    • 2012
  • Fast tracking is important for high-speed data transmission in high-speed mobile environment such as high speed rail and vehicular. Digital retrodirective array antenna is possible to do automatically beam tracking because it can control the phase information of the output signal toward opposite direction to input signal without no a priori knowledge of the arrival direction. Also, Digital retrodirective array antennas has merit that it is easy to upgrade and modify compare with analogue retrodirective array antennas. In this paper, we analyze the BER performance of digital retrodirective array antenna under AWGN environment and multipath signal. Simulation results show correct phase estimation and conjugation of retrodirective array antenna by using phase detector block. Also, phase conjugation technique has better BER performance about 1 dB at source than that of without phase conjugation when phase lag is $15^{\circ}$ in AWGN environment. This paper also discusses effect of the presence of multipath signal. Phase and amplitude error about direction of direct signal occurs when retrodirective array system is affected by interference and multipath signal in the presence of multipath signal.

A Design of Adaptive Channel Estimate Algorithm for ICS Repeater (ICS 중계기를 위한 적응형 채널추정 알고리듬 설계)

  • Lee, Suk-Hui;Song, Ho-Sup;Bang, Sung-Il
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 2009
  • In this thesis, design effective elimination interference algorithm of ICS repeat system for repeater that improve frequency efficiency. Error convergence speed and accuracy of LMS Algorithm are influenced by reference signal. For improve LMS Algorithm, suggest Adaptive channel estimate algorithm. For using channel characteristic, adaptive channel estimate algorithm make reference signal similar interference signal by convolution operation and complement LMS algorithm demerit. For make channel similar piratical channel, apply Jake's Rayleigh multi-path model that random five path with 130Hz Doppler frequency. LMS algorithm and suggested adaptive channel estimate algorithm that have 16 taps apply to ICS repeat system under Rayleigh multi-path channel, so simulate with MATLAB. According to simulate, ICS repeat system with LMS algorithm show -40dB square error convergent after 150 datas iteration and ICS repeat system with adaptive channel estimate algorithm show -80dB square error convergent after 200 datas iteration. Analyze simulation result, suggested adaptive channel estimate algorithm show more three times iteration performance than LMS algorithm, and 40dB accuracy.

Design of Adaptive Controller to Compensate Dynamic Friction for a Benchmark Robot (벤치마크 로봇의 동적 마찰 보상을 위한 적응 제어기 설계)

  • Kim, In-Hyuk;Cho, Kyoung-Hoon;Son, Young Ik;Kim, Pil-Jun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.202-208
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    • 2014
  • Friction force on robot systems is highly nonlinear and especially disturbs precise control of the robots at low speed. This paper deals with the dynamic friction compensation problem of a well-known one-link benchmark robot system. We consider the LuGre model because the model can successfully represent dynamic characteristics and various effects of friction phenomenon. The proposed controller is constructed as two parts. An adaptive controller based on dual observers is used to estimate and compensate the dynamic friction. In order to attenuate the friction estimation error and other disturbances, PI observer is additionally designed. Through the computer simulations with the benchmark system, this paper first examines the effects of nonlinear dynamic friction on the control performance of the benchmark robot system. Next, it is shown that the control performance against the dynamic friction is improved by using the proposed controller.

Assessment of Reference Evapotranspiration Equations for Missing and Estimated Weather Data (기상자료의 결측과 산정에 따른 기준작물 증발산량 공식의 비교 평가)

  • Yoon, Pu Reun;Choi, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.60 no.3
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2018
  • Estimating the reference evapotranspiration is an important factor to consider in irrigation system design and agricultural water use. However, there is a limitation in using the FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO P-M) equation, which requires various meteorological data. The purpose of this study is to compare three reference evapotranspiration (ETo) equations in the case of meteorological data missing for 11 study weather stations. Firstly, the FAO P-M equation is used for reference potential evapotranspiration estimation with the actual solar radiation data $R_n$ and the actual vapor pressure $e_a$. Then, in the case of $R_n$, and $e_a$ are missed, the reference evapotranspirations applying FAO P-M, Priestley-Taylor (P-T), Hargreaves (HG) equation were calculated using other meteorological factors. Secondly, MAE, RMSE, $R^2$ were calculated to compare ETo relationship from the ETo equations. From the results, ETo with Hargreaves equation in coastal areas and the Priestley-Taylor equation in the inland areas showed relatively high correlation with FAO P-M when $e_a$ data is missed. In the case of $R_n$ data is missed or two weather data, $e_a$, and $R_n$ data are all missed, $R^2$ value in Priestley-Taylor equation was highest in coastal areas, and $R^2$ values in Hargreaves equation were the high values for 7 inland areas. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that net radiation was the most sensitive for P-T and HG equation, and for FAO P-M, the most sensitive factor was net radiation and relative humidity, air temperature and wind speed were follows. Therefore, in considering of the accessibility to the coast, the types of the missing wether data, and the correlation and the magnitude of error, the reference evapotranspiration equations would be selected in sense of different conditions.

ESTIMATION OF ERRORS IN THE TRANSVERSE VELOCITY VECTORS DETERMINED FROM HINODE/SOT MAGNETOGRAMS USING THE NAVE TECHNIQUE

  • Chae, Jong-Chul;Moon, Yong-Jae
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2009
  • Transverse velocity vectors can be determined from a pair of images successively taken with a time interval using an optical flow technique. We have tested the performance of the new technique called NAVE (non-linear affine velocity estimator) recently implemented by Chae & Sakurai using real image data taken by the Narrowband Filter Imager (NFI) of the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) aboard the Hinode satellite. We have developed two methods of estimating the errors in the determination of velocity vectors, one resulting from the non-linear fitting ${\sigma}_{\upsilon}$ and the other ${\epsilon}_u$ resulting from the statistics of the determined velocity vectors. The real error is expected to be somewhere between ${\sigma}_{\upsilon}$ and ${\epsilon}_u$. We have investigated the dependence of the determined velocity vectors and their errors on the different parameters such as the critical speed for the subsonic filtering, the width of the localizing window, the time interval between two successive images, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the feature. With the choice of $v_{crit}$ = 2 pixel/step for the subsonic filtering, and the window FWHM of 16 pixels, and the time interval of one step (2 minutes), we find that the errors of velocity vectors determined using the NAVE range from around 0.04 pixel/step in high signal-to-noise ratio features (S/N $\sim$ 10), to 0.1 pixel/step in low signa-to-noise ratio features (S/N $\sim$ 3) with the mean of about 0.06 pixel/step where 1 pixel/step corresponds roughly to 1 km/s in our case.

Semi-numerical Study on the Flame Tilt Equation due to Wind on the Surface Fire in Forest Fire (산불 지표화에서의 바람에 의한 화염각 변화 산정식 도출에 관한 준-수치해석 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.90-95
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    • 2009
  • The wind is very important factor in forest fire spread. Flame spread has a change through wind pattern change in forest fire. In order to analyze the forest fire flame spread rate, change of flame tilt depending on wind may be considering first. This is be cause the flame spread rate varies by the flame tilt changed due to transfer of heat. Especially, as wind speed grow, flame gets closer to surface, heat transfer ratio increase, virgin fuel bed reaches ignition temperature more rapidly, and flame moves faster. This study deduces, through experiment and physical figure analysis, relations on the change behavior of flame tilt due to wind. The value of flame tilt angle calculated from the equation and the experiment value showed average error angle of $3.3^{\circ}$, which is relatively smaller than results of previous studies that used other coefficient. Froude number coefficient A can be calculated in the method provided in this research for estimation of flame tilt angle of virgin fuel bed with varying thermal properties. The research finding is expected to be applied to future studies on flame spread through numerical analysis of heat transfer.

Auto-detection of Halo CME Parameters as the Initial Condition of Solar Wind Propagation

  • Choi, Kyu-Cheol;Park, Mi-Young;Kim, Jae-Hun
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.315-330
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    • 2017
  • Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.

A Study on the self-tuning of the design variables and gains using Fuzzy PI+D Controller (퍼지 PI+D 제어기를 이용한 설계변수와 이득의 자기동조에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Cheol-Su;Choi, Jeong-Won;Oh, Young-Seok;Chae, Seog
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.355-367
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    • 2007
  • This paper proposes a design method of the PI(Proportional-Integral)+D(Derivative) controller using self-tuning of the design variables and controller gains. The used fuzzy PI+D controller is the approximated conventional continuos time linear PI+D controller and the used fuzzification method is the fuzzy single tone and the adapted defuzzification method is the simplified tenter of gravity. Fuzzy estimation result would be calculated in the other function elements from the classified fuzzy variables and the result determined by the design variables decides the controller gains. As a result, the proposed method shows the capability of the high speed tuning and can be applied to the case of input variables with many fuzzy partitions and also can bring out the advantage to reduce the reconstruction(digital sampling reconstruction) error. Most simulation results show that this controller makes much bettor efficiency and improvement by using design variables and controller gains.