• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.319-327
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• 2010

We examine the ionospheric F2-layer electron density variation by solar activity in middle latitude by using foF2 observed at the Kokubunji ionosonde station in Japan for the period from 1997 to 2008. The semi-annual variation of foF2 shows obviously in high solar activity (2000-2002) than low solar activity (2006-2008). It seems that variation of geomagnetic activity by solar activity influences on the semi-annual variation of the ionospheric F2-layer electron density. According to the Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis of foF2 and Ap index, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bs (IMF Bz <0) component, solar wind speed, solar wind number density and flow pressure which influence the geomagnetic activity, we examine how the geomagnetic activity affects the ionospheric F2-layer electron density variation. We find that the semi-annual variation of daily foF2, Ap index and IMF Bs appear clearly during the high solar activity. It suggests that the semi-annual variation of geomagnetic activity, caused by Russell-McPherron effect, contributes greatly to the ionospheric F2-layer semi-annual electron density variation, except dynamical effects in the thermosphere.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.145-148
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• 2014

There was a research on the prolongation of solar cycle 23 by the solar cyclic variation of solar, interplanetary geomagnetic parameters by Oh & Kim (2013). They also suggested that the sunspot number cannot typically explain the variation of total solar irradiance any more. Instead of the sunspot number, a new index is introduced to explain the degree of solar activity. We have analyzed the frequency of sunspot appearance, the length of solar cycle, and the rise time to a solar maximum as the characteristics of solar cycle. Then, we have examined the predictability of solar activity by the characteristics of preceding solar cycle. We have also investigated the hemispheric variation of flare index for the periods that the leading sunspot has the same magnetic polarity. As a result, it was found that there was a good correlation between the length of preceding solar cycle and spotless days. When the length of preceding solar cycle gets longer, the spotless days increase. It is also shown that the shorter rise time to a solar maximum is highly correlated with the increase of sunspots at a solar maximum. Therefore, the appearance frequency of spotless days and the length of solar cycle are more significant than the general sunspot number as an index of declining solar activity. Additionally, the activity of flares leads in the northern hemisphere and is stronger in the hemisphere with leading sunspots in positive polarity than in the hemisphere with leading sunspots in negative polarity. This result suggests that it is necessary to analyze the magnetic polarity's effect on the flares and to interpret the period from the solar maximum to solar maximum as the definition of solar cycle.

• 천문학논총
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.103-112
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• 1999

We have investigated the solar activity variation with period shorter than 1000 days, through Fourier transformation of solar cycle 21 and 22 data. And real time predictions of the flare maximum intensity have been made by multilinear regression method to allow the use of multivariate vectors of sunspot groups or active region characteristics. In addition, we have examined the evolution of magnetic field and current density in active regions at times before and after flare occurrence, to check short term variability of solar activity. According to our results of calculation, solar activity changes with periods of 27.1, 28.0, 52.1, 156.3, 333.3 days for solar cycle 21 and of 26.5, 27.1, 28.9, 54.1, 154, 176.7, 384.6 days for solar cycle 22. Periodic components of about 27, 28, 53, 155 days are found simultaneously at all of two solar cycles. Finally, from our intensive analysis of solar activity data for three different terms of $1977\~1982,\; 1975\~1998,\;and\;1978\~1982$, we find out that our predictions coincide with observations at hit rate of $76\%,\;63\%$, 59 respectively.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.43-48
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• 2013

The geomagnetic activity shows the semiannual variation stronger in vernal and autumnal equinoxes than in summer and winter solstices. The semiannual variation has been explained by three main hypotheses such as Axial hypothesis, Equinoctial hypothesis, and Russell-McPherron Effect. Many studies using the various geomagnetic indices have done to support three main hypotheses. In recent, Oh & Yi (2011) examined the solar magnetic polarity dependency of the geomagnetic storm occurrence defined by Dst index. They reported that there is no dependency of the semiannual variation on the sign of the solar polar fields. This study examines the solar magnetic polarity dependency of quiet time geomagnetic activity. Using Dxt index (Karinen & Mursula 2005) and Dcx index (Mursula & Karinen 2005) which are recently suggested, in addition to Dst index, we analyze the data of three-year at each solar minimum for eight solar cycles since 1932. As a result, the geomagnetic activity is stronger in the period that the solar magnetic polarity is anti-parallel with the Earth's magnetic polarity. There exists the difference between vernal and autumnal equinoxes regarding the solar magnetic polarity dependency. However, the difference is not statistically significant. Thus, we conclude that there is no solar magnetic polarity dependency of the semiannual variation for quiet time geomagnetic activity.

• 천문학회지
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.121-128
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• 2021

It has been known that the global asteroseismic parameters as well as the stellar acoustic mode parameters vary with stellar magnetic activity. Some solar-like stars whose variations are thought to be induced by magnetic activity, however, show mode frequencies changing with different magnitude and phase unlike what is expected for the Sun. Therefore, it is of great importance to find out whether expected relations are consistently manifested regardless of the phase of the stellar magnetic cycle, in the sense that observations are apt to cover a part of a complete cycle of stellar magnetic activity unless observations span several decades. Here, we explore whether the observed relations of the global seismic parameters hold good regardless of the phase of the stellar magnetic cycle, even if observations only cover a part of the stellar magnetic cycle. For this purpose, by analyzing photometric Sun-as-a-star data from 1996 to 2019 covering solar cycles 23 and 24, we compare correlations of the global asteroseismic parameters and magnetic proxies for four separate intervals of the solar cycle: solar minima ±2 years, solar minima +4 years, solar maxima ±2 years, and solar maxima +4 years. We have found that the photometric magnetic activity proxy, S_ph, is an effective proxy for the solar magnetic activity regardless of the phase of the solar cycle. The amplitude of the mode envelope correlates negatively with the solar magnetic activity regardless of the phase of the solar cycle. However, relations between the central frequency of the envelope and the envelope width are vulnerable to the phase of the stellar magnetic cycle.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.163-168
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• 2013

Parameters associated with solar minimum have been studied to relate them to solar activity at solar maximum so that one could possibly predict behaviors of an upcoming solar cycle. The number of active days has been known as a reliable indicator of solar activity around solar minimum. Active days are days with sunspots reported on the solar disk. In this work, we have explored the relationship between the sunspot numbers at solar maximum and the characteristics of the monthly number of active days. Specifically, we have statistically examined how the maximum monthly sunspot number of a given solar cycle is correlated with the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days for the corresponding solar cycle. We have calculated the linear correlation coefficient r and the Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient $r_s$ for data sets prepared under various conditions. Even though marginal correlations are found, they turn out to be insufficiently significant (r ~ 0.3). Nonetheless, we have confirmed that the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days is less steep when solar cycles belonging to the "Modern Maximum" are considered compared with rests of solar cycles. We conclude, therefore, that the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days is indeed dependent on the solar activity at its maxima, but that this simple relationship should be insufficient as a valid method to predict the following solar activity amplitude.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.149-157
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• 2019

In this study, we investigate the associations between the solar variability and teleconnection indices, which influence atmospheric circulation and subsequently, the spatial distribution of the global pressure system. A study of the link between the Sun and a large-scale mode of climate variability, which may indirectly affect the Earth's climate and weather, is crucial because the feedbacks of solar variability to an autogenic or internal process should be considered with due care. We have calculated the normalized cross-correlations of the total sunspot area, the total sunspot number, and the solar North-South asymmetry with teleconnection indices. We have found that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) index is anti-correlated with both solar activity and the solar North-South asymmetry, with a ~3-year lag. This finding not only agrees with the fact that El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ episodes are likely to occur around the solar maximum, but also explains why tropical cyclones occurring in the solar maximum periods and in El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods appear similar. Conversely, other teleconnection indices, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) index, and the Pacific-North American (PNA) index, are weakly or only slightly correlated with solar activity, which emphasizes that response of terrestrial climate and weather to solar variability are local in space. It is also found that correlations between teleconnection indices and solar activity are as good as correlations resulting from the teleconnection indices themselves.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.45.3-46
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• 2016

Solar activity shows a self-similarity as it has many periods of activity cycle in the time series of long-term observation, such as 13.5, 51, 150, 300 days, and 11, 88 years and so on. Since fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter for this kind of an irregular time series, we applied this method to long-term observations including sunspot number, total solar irradiance, and 3.75 GHz solar radio flux to predict the start and maximum times as well as expected maximum sunspot number for the next solar cycle. As a result, we found that the radio flux data tend to have lower fractal dimensions than the sunspot number data, which means that the radio emission from the sun is more regular than the solar activity expressed by sunspot number. Based on the relation between radio flux of 3.75 GHz and sunspot number, we could calculate the expected maximum sunspot number of solar cycle 24 as 156, while the observed value is 146. For the maximum time, estimated mean values from 7 different observations are January 2013 and this is quite different to observed value of February 2014. We speculate this is from extraordinary extended properties of solar cycle 24. As the cycle length of solar cycle 24, 10.1 to 12.8 years are expected, and the mean value is 11.0. This implies that the next solar cycle will be started at December 2019.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.135-142
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• 2006

흑점수와 오로라의 관측 자료를 과거로 연장해 보면 dynamo 이론과 태양의 활동 그리고 기후간에 상당한 관계가 있음을 알 수 있다. 특히 흑점이 거의 나타나지 않았던 Maunder 극소기가 이상 혹한기였던 유럽의 소빙하기와 일치하고, 흑점의 출현과 오로라 발생 사이에 밀접한 관계가 있다는 사실이 알려졌다. 이에 따라 Maunder 극소기 시기의 흑점과 오로라의 관측 자료들을 간접적 solar proxy 자료들과 함께 조사하고, 이 시기에 나타난 태양 활동의 모습과 특징을 기후변화의 관계와 함께 알아보았다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.367-377
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• 2015

Atmospheric drag force is an important source of perturbation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) orbit satellites, and solar activity is a major factor for changes in atmospheric density. In particular, the orbital lifetime of a satellite varies with changes in solar activity, so care must be taken in predicting the remaining orbital lifetime during preparation for post-mission disposal. In this paper, the System Tool Kit (STK$^{(R)}$) Long-term Orbit Propagator is used to analyze the changes in orbital lifetime predictions with respect to solar activity. In addition, the STK$^{(R)}$ Lifetime tool is used to analyze the change in orbital lifetime with respect to solar flux data generation, which is needed for the orbital lifetime calculation, and its control on the drag coefficient control. Analysis showed that the application of the most recent solar flux file within the Lifetime tool gives a predicted trend that is closest to the actual orbit. We also examine the effect of the drag coefficient, by performing a comparative analysis between varying and constant coefficients in terms of solar activity intensities.