• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.126.2-126.2
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• 2012

최근 태양 극대기를 맞아 우주기상의 변화에 대처하기 위한 연구가 많이 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서도 저 중위도 이온권 모델인 SAMI2와 SAMI3를 이용하여 solar flare 발생에 따른 이온권의 변화를 지켜보고자 하였다. 하지만 SAMI 모델에서는 F74113 Solar EUV reference spectrum을 이용하여 EUV flux에 의한 이온화만 고려되었을 뿐, X-ray flux에 의한 이온화는 고려되지 않았다. 태양 극대기동안 solar flare가 발생하였을 때, solar X-ray가 전리층에 미치는 영향이 매우 중요한만큼 solar X-ray에 의한 이온권의 변화를 적용시킬 필요가 있었다. 따라서 우리는 보다 정확한 solar flare 발생에 따른 이온권의 변화를 보기 위해 $1{\AA}{\sim}8{\AA}$범위의 X-ray관측자료를 제공하는 GOES 위성의 데이터를 직접 이용하고, 해당하는 파장의 cross section을 추가하여 SAMI 모델에 적용시켰다. solar flare 효과를 선택적으로 활용하는 개정된 SAMI 모델을 통해 각 flare 등급과 지속시간에 따른 이온권의 변화를 모델로써 확인하였다.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2009.10a
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• pp.37.2-37.2
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• 2009

In this study, we present a new empirical forecasting method of solar proton events based on flare parameters. For this we used NOAA solar energetic particle (SEP) events from 1976 to 2006 and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we found that about only 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with the proton events. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for $30W^{\circ}$ < L < $90W^{\circ}$ is about three times larger than that for $30^{\circ}E$ < L < $90^{\circ}E$. The occurrence probability of solar proton events for flares with long duration (> 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). The relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude. Using these results for prediction of proton flux, we divided the data into 6 subgroups depending on two parameters: (1) 3 longitude ranges (east, center, and west) and (2) flare impulsive times (long and short). For each subgroup, we make a linear regression between the X-ray flare peak flux and the corresponding proton peak flux. The result shows that the proton flux in the eastern region is much better correlated with the X-ray flux than that in the western region.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.209-214
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• 2014

In this study we develop a set of solar proton event (SPE) forecast models with NOAA scales by Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), one of neural network methods, using GOES solar X-ray flare data from 1976 to 2011. Our MLP models are the first attempt to forecast the SPE scales by the neural network method. The combinations of X-ray flare class, impulsive time, and location are used for input data. For this study we make a number of trials by changing the number of layers and nodes as well as combinations of the input data. To find the best model, we use the summation of F-scores weighted by SPE scales, where F-score is the harmonic mean of PODy (recall) and precision (positive predictive value), in order to minimize both misses and false alarms. We find that the MLP models are much better than the multiple linear regression model and one layer MLP model gives the best result.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.64.3-64.3
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• 2015

We have developed a set of daily solar flare peak flux forecast models for strong flares using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network methods. We consider input parameters as solar activity data from January 1996 to December 2013 such as sunspot area, X-ray flare peak flux and weighted total flux of previous day, and mean flare rates of McIntosh sunspot group (Zpc) and Mount Wilson magnetic classification. For a training data set, we use the same number of 61 events for each C-, M-, and X-class from Jan. 1996 to Dec. 2004, while other previous models use all flares. For a testing data set, we use all flares from Jan. 2005 to Nov. 2013. The best three parameters related to the observed flare peak flux are weighted total flare flux of previous day (r = 0.51), X-ray flare peak flux (r = 0.48), and Mount Wilson magnetic classification (r = 0.47). A comparison between our neural network models and the previous models based on Heidke Skill Score (HSS) shows that our model for X-class flare is much better than the models and that for M-class flares is similar to them. Since all input parameters for our models are easily available, the models can be operated steadily and automatically in near-real time for space weather service.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.29 no.spc1
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• pp.321-322
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• 1996

Using the data on the occurrences of the Ho: and soft X-ray flares for the time interval of January 1, 1986-May :31, 1994, we have studied the middle term(30-300days) pericities of the solar flare production during the activity cycle 22. Power analysis of the time seies of daily H$\alpha$ flare index in the northern hemisphere shows prominent periodicities at 220, 120, 109, and 92 days(see Figures l(a) and l(b)), while in the southern hemisphere, those at 267, 213, 183, 167, and 107 days are apparent, though their peaks are not so distint as those in the northern hemisphere. Periodogram of daily soft X-ray flare index also reveal the periodicities at 279, 205, 164, 117, and 91 days in the northern hemisphere, and at 266, 220, 199, 162, 120, and 100 days in the southern hemisphere. Howeer, the 155-day periodicity reported for the earlier cycles, 19, 20, and 21, could not be confirmed in our analysis. to be submitted to Solar Physics; an extended abstract.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.29 no.spc1
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• pp.315-316
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• 1996

Based on X-ray (1-8 ${\AA}$) flux data for 1972-1995 the integral spectra of solar flare energy were computed. It has been shown that the spectral index $\beta$ of the integral energy spectrum (IES) vanes systematically with the 11-year cycle phase. The interval of $\beta$-variations (0.47 <$\beta$<1) is characteristic of UV-Cet stars. The maximum energy of the X-ray flares does not exceed $10^{32}$ erg.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.76.1-76.1
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• 2014

We investigate the solar flare and CME occurrence rate and probability depending on sunspot class and its area change. These CMEs are front-side, partial and full halo CMEs associated with X-ray flares. For this we use the Solar Region Summary(SRS) from NOAA, NGDC flare catalog, and SOHO/LASCO CME catalog for 16 years (from January 1996 to December 2011). We classify each sunspot class into two sub-groups: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each class, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot class area change: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". In terms of sunspot class area, the solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities noticeably increase at compact and large sunspot groups (e.g., 'Fkc'). In terms of sunspot area change, solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. For example, in case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' class, the flare occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. In case of the 'Eai' class, the CME occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-groups is five time higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results demonstrate statistically that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance solar flare and CME occurrence, especially for compact and large sunspot groups.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.65.1-65.1
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• 2013

The 2011 August 09 Flare is one of the largest X-ray flares of Sunspot Cycle 24 to attract a lot of attention for its various activities detected in coronal images. In this study we concern ourselves mostly on information of high energy electrons produced during this flare provided by hard X ray data from the Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and radio data from the Korean Solar Radio Burst Locator (KSRBL) and Ondrejov. EUV images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory are used to provide the context of magnetic reconnection. In our results, (1) HXR spectra have a rich spectral morphology. Initially it could be fit by one thermal component (T~30MK) and one single power law nonthermal spectrum, but later a better fit could be made by introducing an additional thermal component (T~55 MK). (2) Time delays between the KSRBL burst and the RHESSI hard X-ray emission were found which are more obvious at low frequencies and insignificant at high frequencies. (3) The HXR source lies in the core of the quadrupolar active region. In our interpretation based on AIA 94 A images, the outer part of the active region erupted to be blown out, leaving the intense hard X-ray emission concentrated in the core. We relate the appearance of the second thermal component to the evolution of the AIA 171 and 94 A images. The time delays of microwave peaks to HXR peaks are interpreted as indicating presence of trapped electrons in larger closed magnetic loops. With these result we conclude that the hard X ray and microwaves are due to impulsive acceleration in the low and high heights and a sigmoidal reconnection scenario.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.82-82
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• 2016

To find the relationship between solar flares and halo CMEs using stereoscopic observations, we investigate 182 flare-associated halo CMEs among 306 front-side halo CMEs from 2009 to 2013. We have determined the 3D parameters (radial speed and angular width) of these CMEs by applying StereoCAT to multi-spacecraft data (SOHO and STEREO). For this work, we use flare parameters (peak flux and fluence) taken from GOES X-ray flare list and 2D CME parameters (projected speed, apparent angular width, and kinetic energy) taken from CDAW SOHO LASCO CME catalog. Major results from this study are as follows. First, the relationship between flare peak flux (or fluence) and CME speed is almost same for both 2D and 3D cases. Second, there is a possible correlation between flare fluence and CME width, which is more evident in 3D case than 2D one. Third, the flare fluence is well correlated with CME kinetic energy (CC=0.63). Fourth, there is an upper limit of CME kinetic energy for a given flare fluence (or peak flux). For example, a possible CME kinetic energy ranges from 1030.6 to 1033 erg for a given X1.0 class flare. Our results will be discussed in view of the physical mechanism of solar eruptions.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.123-126
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• 2000

We have developed a near real-time flare alerting system which (1) downloads the latest GOES-l0 1-8 ${\AA}$ X-ray flux 1-min data by an automated ftp program and shell scripts, (2) produces a beep sound in a simple IDL widget program when the flux is larger than a critical value, and (3) makes it possible to do a wireless alerting by a set of portable transceivers. Thanks to the system, we have made successful Ha flare observations by the Solar Flare Telescope in Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory. This system is expected to be helpful for ground-based flare observers.