• 제목/요약/키워드: short-rate models

검색결과 151건 처리시간 0.026초

신경망을 이용한 낙동강 유역 홍수기 댐유입량 예측 (Dam Inflow Forecasting for Short Term Flood Based on Neural Networks in Nakdong River Basin)

  • 윤강훈;서봉철;신현석
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
    • /
    • 제37권1호
    • /
    • pp.67-75
    • /
    • 2004
  • 본 연구에서는 홍수시 다목적댐의 효율적 운영을 위하여 상류로부터 유입되는 홍수유입량을 실시간으로 예측하기 위해 역전파 신경망 모형을 사용하여 댐유입량 예측모형(Neural Dam Inflow Forecasting Model; NDIFM)을 개발하였다. NDIFM은 다목적댐에 의한 하류의 홍수조절 비중이 큰 낙동강의 남강댐 유역에 적용하였으며, 입력자료로는 댐유역 평균강우량, 실측 댐유입량, 예측 댐유입량 통을 사용하여 실시간 댐유입량 예측의 가능성을 검토하였다. 실측치와 예측치를 비교ㆍ검토한 결과 제시한 세 가지 모형 중 NDIFM-I이 가장 우수한 결과를 나타내었으며, NDIFM-II 및 NDIFM-III 또한 다양한 예측가능성을 보여주었다. 따라서, 강우-유출의 비선형시스템 모의를 위하여 물리적 매개변수가 복잡한 개념적 모형보다는 양질의 수문관측 자료만 축적된다면 블랙박스 모형인 신경망 모형이 실시간 홍수예측에 효율적으로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

단기 물 수요예측 시뮬레이터 개발과 예측 알고리즘 성능평가 (Development of Water Demand Forecasting Simulator and Performance Evaluation)

  • 신강욱;김주환;양재린;홍성택
    • 상하수도학회지
    • /
    • 제25권4호
    • /
    • pp.581-589
    • /
    • 2011
  • Generally, treated water or raw water is transported into storage reservoirs which are receiving facilities of local governments from multi-regional water supply systems. A water supply control and operation center is operated not only to manage the water facilities more economically and efficiently but also to mitigate the shortage of water resources due to the increase in water consumption. To achieve the goal, important information such as the flow-rate in the systems, water levels of storage reservoirs or tanks, and pump-operation schedule should be considered based on the resonable water demand forecasting. However, it is difficult to acquire the pattern of water demand used in local government, since the operating information is not shared between multi-regional and local water systems. The pattern of water demand is irregular and unpredictable. Also, additional changes such as an abrupt accident and frequent changes of electric power rates could occur. Consequently, it is not easy to forecast accurate water demands. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce a short-term water demands forecasting and to develop an application of the forecasting models. In this study, the forecasting simulator for water demand is developed based on mathematical and neural network methods as linear and non-linear models to implement the optimal water demands forecasting. It is shown that MLP(Multi-Layered Perceptron) and ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) can be applied to obtain better forecasting results in multi-regional water supply systems with a large scale and local water supply systems with small or medium scale than conventional methods, respectively.

실험계획법을 이용한 고온 고분자 전해질 막 연료전지의 운전조건 최적화 연구 (Study on Optimization of Operating Conditions for High Temperature PEM Fuel Cells Using Design of Experiments)

  • 김진태;김민진;손영준
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
    • /
    • 제24권1호
    • /
    • pp.50-60
    • /
    • 2013
  • High temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) using phosphoric acid (PA) doped polybenzimidazole (PBI) membranes have been concentrated as one of solutions to the limits with traditional low temperature PEMFCs. However, the amount of reported experimental data is not enough to catch the operational characteristics correlated with cell performance and durability. In this study, design of experiments (DOE) based operational optimization method for high temperature PEMFCs has been proposed. Response surface method (RSM) is very useful to effectively analyze target system's characteristics and to optimize operating conditions for a short time. Thus RSM using central composite design (CCD) as one of methodologies for design of experiments (DOE) was adopted. For this work, the statistic models which predict the performance and degradation rate with respect to the operating conditions have been developed. The developed performance and degradation models exhibit a good agreement with experimental data. Compared to the existing arbitrary operation, the expected cell lifetime and average cell performance during whole operation could be improved by optimizing operating conditions. Furthermore, the proposed optimization method could find different new optimal solutions for operating conditions if the target lifetime of the fuel cell system is changed. It is expected that the proposed method is very useful to find optimal operating conditions and enhance performance and durability for many other types of fuel cell systems.

한국(韓國)의 물가모형(物價模型) (A Long Run Classical Model of Price Determination)

  • 박우규;김세종
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • 제14권4호
    • /
    • pp.3-26
    • /
    • 1992
  • 본고(本稿)에서는 물가변동(物價變動)의 구조(構造), 주요거시정책변수(主要巨視政策變數)의 변동이 물가에 미치는 영향 및 파급구조(波及構造) 등을 파악하고 물가안정을 위한 적절한 정책대응방안을 제시하기 위하여 물가모형(物價模型)을 작성하였다. Keynesian 거시경제모형(巨視經濟模型) 형태로 작성하되, 임금(賃金), 이자율(利子率), 물가(物價)와 같은 주요가격변수(主要價格變數)를 내생화(內生化)하고 잠재(潛在)GNP의 추정 역시 내생화(內生化)함으로써 가격 및 실물변수의 장기적(長期的) 상호변동관계(相互變動關係)를 파악하였다. 어떠한 충격에 의해 초과수요(超過需要)(실질GNP-잠재GNP)가 변화하면 이는 임금(賃金), 금리(金利), 물가(物價), 실질실효환율(實質實效換率) 등과 같은 가격변수에 영향을 미치고 이는 다시 초과수요(超過需要)를 변동시키는 실물(實物)-가격(價格)-실물(實物)의 순환변동관계(循環變動關係)에 의해 물가가 변동되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 모형(模型)은 Keynesian모형(模型)이나, 장기(長期)에는 고전파적(古典派的)(Classical) 정책함의를 가지는바, 통화공급증가(通貨供給增加), 재정지출증가(財政支出增加), 환율절하(換率切下) 등은 단기(短期)에는 경기부양효과를 가지나 장기(長期)에는 이러한 경기부양효과가 소멸되는 반면 물가(物價)는 높은 수준을 유지하는 결과를 초래하는 것으로 나타났다.

  • PDF

Investigating the Au-Cu thick layers Electrodeposition Rate with Pulsed Current by Optimization of the Operation Condition

  • Babaei, Hamid;Khosravi, Morteza;Sovizi, Mohamad Reza;Khorramie, Saeid Abedini
    • Journal of Electrochemical Science and Technology
    • /
    • 제11권2호
    • /
    • pp.172-179
    • /
    • 2020
  • The impact of effective parameters on the electrodeposition rate optimization of Au-Cu alloy at high thicknesses on the silver substrate was investigated in the present study. After ensuring the formation of gold alloy deposits with the desired and standard percentage of gold with the cartage of 18K and other standard karats that should be observed in the manufacturing of the gold and jewelry artifacts, comparing the rate of gold-copper deposition by direct and pulsed current was done. The rate of deposition with pulse current was significantly higher than direct current. In this process, the duty cycle parameter was effectively optimized by the "one factor at a time" method to achieve maximum deposition rate. Particular parameters in this work were direct and pulse current densities, bath temperature, concentration of gold and cyanide ions in electrolyte, pH, agitation and wetting agent additive. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and surface chemical analysis system (EDS) were used to study the effect of deposition on the cross-sections of the formed layers. The results revealed that the Au-Cu alloy layer formed with concentrations of 6gr·L-1 Au, 55gr·L-1 Cu, 24 gr·L-1 KCN and 1 ml·L-1 Lauryl dimethyl amine oxide (LDAO) in the 0.6 mA·cm-2 average current density and 30% duty cycle, had 0.841 ㎛·min-1 Which was the highest deposition rate. The use of electrodeposition of pure and alloy gold thick layers as a production method can reduce the use of gold metal in the production of hallow gold artifacts, create sophisticated and unique models, and diversify production by maintaining standard karats, hardness, thickness and mechanical strength. This will not only make the process economical, it will also provide significant added value to the gold artifacts. By pulsating of currents and increasing the duty cycle means reducing the pulse off-time, and if the pulse off-time becomes too short, the electric double layer would not have sufficient growth time, and its thickness decreases. These results show the effect of pulsed current on increasing the electrodeposition rate of Au-Cu alloy confirming the previous studies on the effect of pulsed current on increasing the deposition rate of Au-Cu alloy.

격납용기내 구분방사이의 압력 강하 계산모델 개발 (Development of Pressure Drop Model for the Compartment in Reactor Containment)

  • Park, Cheol;Song, In-ho;Lee, Un-Chul
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제18권3호
    • /
    • pp.183-193
    • /
    • 1986
  • 실제 발전소규모의 HDR 격납용기 실험에서 기존의 격납용기 해석모델에 많은 문제점들이 있다는 것이 밝혀졌는데, 그 중의 하나가 단기 (0∼2초) 압력 차이 계산이다. 격납용기의 각 구분방 사이의 압력차이는 질량 흐름율, 유체밀도, 마찰상실계수, 흐름면적비 등에 의존하는데, 각 요소가 압력 차이의 실험값과 계산값의 불일치에 어느 정도의 영향을 주는가는 정확하게 알려져 있지 않다 본 연구에서는 기존의 해석모델을 개선하기 위해 지금까지 상수로 간주되어 온 마찰상실계수를 압력과 압력차이 등의 함수로 제시되었다. COMPARE 코드로 수정된 모델을 사용하여 HDR 실험에 대한 압력과 압력차이가 계산되었는데 V.42 실험값에서는 측정치와 잘 맞고, V.43의 측정치 보다는 높게, V.44 실험값보다는 조금 낮은 결과를 보였다.

  • PDF

지역의 산업다양성과 지역경기변동의 관계 분석 (The Analysis of the Relation between Regional Industrial Diversity and Regional Business Cycle)

  • 우영진;김의준
    • 지역연구
    • /
    • 제33권3호
    • /
    • pp.3-19
    • /
    • 2017
  • 본 연구의 목적은 지역의 산업다양성이 지역의 경기변동에 어떤 영향을 주는지를 분석하는 데 있다. 지역의 경기변동은 고용시장과 생산활동의 측면에서 측정하였고 2005년 1월부터 2016년 2월을 분석기간으로 설정하였다. 우리나라의 주요 항만도시를 대상으로 선정하였고 지역의 특성을 통제하기 위하여 패널 벡터오차수정모형의 그룹평균 추정량과 통합그룹평균 추정량을 사용하였다. 산업의 구성이 다양한 지역에서는 단기적으로 실업률의 변동의 폭이 작았지만, 제조업 생산지수의 변동성은 장기적인 경우에만 낮게 나타났다.

Ultra Wideband (UWB) - Introduction and Signal Modeling

  • Manandhar, Dinesh;Shibasaki, Ryosuke
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
    • /
    • pp.1421-1423
    • /
    • 2003
  • Ultra Wideband is a new technology from commercial or civilian application viewpoint. It uses already allocated radio spectrum without causing significant interference to other users. It uses very low power, which is below the thermal noise of the receiver and is inherently difficult to detect by un-intentional users. Since, FCC approved the regulation for the commercial use of UWB in February 2002, the development of UWB technology is drastically gaining momentum. However, the technology itself is not new. It has already been used in military applications. UWB has three basic areas of applications, which are communication, positioning and imaging (UWB Microwave). The main commercial application will be for communication since it has very high data transfer rate for short distance. It can also be used for both indoor and outdoor 3-D positioning. Another important application is imaging like microwave remote sensing. An UWB sensor can pass through doors and walls and hence detect the objects inside the room. In this paper, we will introduce about UWB technology along with it’s various possible applications. We will also present some models to generate UWB signal and it’s analysis using signal-processing tools.

  • PDF

쑥 추출액을 이용한 Microcystis aeruginosa 제거 및 성장억제 연구 (Removal and Regrowth Inhibition of Microcystis aeruginosa using Artemisia asiatica Extracts)

  • 최희정
    • 한국물환경학회지
    • /
    • 제33권4호
    • /
    • pp.441-448
    • /
    • 2017
  • Microcystis aeruginosa (M. aeruginosa) is a cyanobacterium species that can form harmful algal blooms in freshwater bodies worldwide. The use of Artemisia asiatica extracts to control M. aeruginosa inhibition will be environmentally friendly and promising. Artemisia asiatica extracts removed successfully upto 88% of M. aeruginosa pH 8 at $25^{\circ}C$ of temperature. These results was indicated that the amount of 2.24 g/L Artemisia asiatica extracts was removed 1g dryweight/L of M. aeruginosa. The kinetic data showed substrate inhibition kinetics and maximum growth rate was obtained when the M. aeruginosa was grown in medium containing 2.5 g/L of initial concentration of Artemisia asiatica extracts. In the various growth control models, Luong model showed the highest correlation coefficient of 0.9916. Therefore, the Luong model was the most suitable control model for the growth control of M. aruginosa using Artemisia asiatica extracts. In conclusion, the growth control of M. aruginosa using Artemisia asiatica extracts can be applied in the field without controlling the temperature and pH of rivers and streams, and it is possible to control the growth of M. aruginosa efficiently in a short time. The natural extract, Artemisia asiatica extracts, can be a promising inhibition due to its high efficiency and low dose requirements.

Speaker-Dependent Emotion Recognition For Audio Document Indexing

  • Hung LE Xuan;QUENOT Georges;CASTELLI Eric
    • 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한전자공학회 2004년도 ICEIC The International Conference on Electronics Informations and Communications
    • /
    • pp.92-96
    • /
    • 2004
  • The researches of the emotions are currently great interest in speech processing as well as in human-machine interaction domain. In the recent years, more and more of researches relating to emotion synthesis or emotion recognition are developed for the different purposes. Each approach uses its methods and its various parameters measured on the speech signal. In this paper, we proposed using a short-time parameter: MFCC coefficients (Mel­Frequency Cepstrum Coefficients) and a simple but efficient classifying method: Vector Quantification (VQ) for speaker-dependent emotion recognition. Many other features: energy, pitch, zero crossing, phonetic rate, LPC... and their derivatives are also tested and combined with MFCC coefficients in order to find the best combination. The other models: GMM and HMM (Discrete and Continuous Hidden Markov Model) are studied as well in the hope that the usage of continuous distribution and the temporal behaviour of this set of features will improve the quality of emotion recognition. The maximum accuracy recognizing five different emotions exceeds $88\%$ by using only MFCC coefficients with VQ model. This is a simple but efficient approach, the result is even much better than those obtained with the same database in human evaluation by listening and judging without returning permission nor comparison between sentences [8]; And this result is positively comparable with the other approaches.

  • PDF