• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• 제3권4호
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• pp.509-523
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• 2005

We are developing a novel framework, PRIDE (PRediction In Dynamic Environments), to perform moving object prediction (MOP) for autonomous ground vehicles. The underlying concept is based upon a multi-resolutional, hierarchical approach which incorporates multiple prediction algorithms into a single, unifying framework. The lower levels of the framework utilize estimation-theoretic short-term predictions while the upper levels utilize a probabilistic prediction approach based on situation recognition with an underlying cost model. The estimation-theoretic short-term prediction is via an extended Kalman filter-based algorithm using sensor data to predict the future location of moving objects with an associated confidence measure. The proposed estimation-theoretic approach does not incorporate a priori knowledge such as road networks and traffic signage and assumes uninfluenced constant trajectory and is thus suited for short-term prediction in both on-road and off-road driving. In this article, we analyze the complementary role played by vehicle kinematic models in such short-term prediction of moving objects. In particular, the importance of vehicle process models and their effect on predicting the positions and orientations of moving objects for autonomous ground vehicle navigation are examined. We present results using field data obtained from different autonomous ground vehicles operating in outdoor environments.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.209-214
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• 2019

Precise point positioning (PPP) requires precise orbit and clock products. International GNSS service (IGS) real-time service (RTS) data can be used in real-time for PPP, but it may not be possible to receive these corrections for a short time due to internet or hardware failure. In addition, the time required for IGS to combine RTS data from each analysis center results in a delay of about 30 seconds for the RTS data. Short-term orbit prediction can be possible because it includes the rate of correction, but the clock correction only provides bias. Thus, a short-term prediction model is needed to preidict RTS clock corrections. In this paper, we used a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict RTS clock correction for three minutes. The prediction accuracy of the LSTM was compared with that of the polynomial model. After applying the predicted clock corrections to the broadcast ephemeris, we performed PPP and analyzed the positioning accuracy. The LSTM network predicted the clock correction within 2 cm error, and the PPP accuracy is almost the same as received RTS data.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.719-728
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• 2022

The prediction of short-term traffic flow is the theoretical basis of intelligent transportation as well as the key technology in traffic flow induction systems. The research on short-term traffic flow prediction has showed the considerable social value. At present, the support vector regression (SVR) intelligent prediction model that is suitable for small samples has been applied in this domain. Aiming at parameter selection difficulty and prediction accuracy improvement, the artificial bee colony (ABC) is adopted in optimizing SVR parameters, which is referred to as the ABC-SVR algorithm in the paper. The simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with SVR algorithm, and the feasibility of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is verified by result analysis. Continuously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with particle swarm optimization SVR (PSO-SVR) algorithm and genetic optimization SVR (GA-SVR) algorithm, and a better optimization effect has been attained by simulation experiments and verified by statistical test. Simultaneously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm and wavelet neural network time series (WNN-TS) algorithm, and the prediction accuracy of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is improved and satisfactory prediction effects have been obtained.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.54-60
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• 2013

In this paper, a novel method called location-based delivery (LBD), which combines the short message service (SMS) and global position system (GPS), is proposed, and further, a realistic system for tracking a target's movement is developed. LBD reduces the number of short message transmissions while maintaining the location tracking accuracy within the acceptable range. The proposed approach, LBD, consists of three primary features: Short message format, location prediction, and dynamic threshold. The defined short message format is proprietary. Location prediction is performed by using the current location, moving speed, and bearing of the target to predict its next location. When the distance between the predicted location and the actual location exceeds a certain threshold, the target transmits a short message to the tracker to update its current location. The threshold is dynamically adjusted to maintain the location tracking accuracy and the number of short messages on the basis of the moving speed of the target. The experimental results show that LBD, indeed, outperforms other methods because it satisfactorily maintains the location tracking accuracy with relatively fewer messages.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.730-735
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• 2006

본 논문은 퍼지 시스템과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용하여 단기 전력 부하 예측 방법을 제안한다. 우선 유전자 알고리즘을 이용하여 최적의 퍼지 소속함수를 구한다. 최적의 퍼지 규칙과 시계열 입력 차이를 이용하여 보다 더 나은 예측 시스템을 구한다. 제안된 방법을 이용하여 단기 전력 부하 예측에서 좋은 결과를 얻었다. 또한 제안된 알고리즘에 대한 그래픽 사용자 인터페이스를 구현한다. 마지막으로, 전력부하에 대한 지역 예측 시스템을 구현한다.

• 한국펄프종이공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국펄프종이공학회 2004년도 춘계학술발표논문집
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• pp.86-96
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• 2004

Identification of dynamics of short circulation during grade change operations in paper mills is very important for the effective plant operation. In the present study a prediction method of One Pass Retention(OPR) is proposed based on the neural network. The present method is used to analyze the dynamics of short circulation during grade change. Properties of the product paper largely depend upon the change in the OPR. In the present study the OPR is predicted from the training of the network by using grade change operation data. The results of the prediction are applied to the modeling equation to give flow rates and consistencies of short circulation.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.97-102
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• 2010

This paper deals with the variability of short term creep rupture time based on previous creep rupture tests and the statistical methodology of the creep life prediction. The results of creep tests performed using constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650, and $700^{\circ}C$ elevated temperatures were used for a statistical analysis of the inter-specimen variability of the short term creep rupture time. Even under carefully controlled identical testing conditions, the observed short-term creep rupture time showed obvious inter-specimen variability. The statistical aspect of the short term creep rupture time was analyzed using a Weibull statistical analysis. The effect of creep stress on the variability of the creep rupture time was decreased with an increase in the stress level. The effect of the temperature on the variability also decreased with increasing temperature. A long term creep life prediction method that considers this statistical variability is presented. The presented method is in good agreement with the Lason-Miller Parameter (LMP) life prediction method.

• 한국생물정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국생물정보시스템생물학회 2005년도 BIOINFO 2005
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• pp.287-293
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• 2005

Predicting RNA secondary structure as accurately as possible is very important in functional analysis of RNA molecules. However, different prediction methods and related parameters including terminal GU pair of helices, minimum length of helices, and free energy systems often give different prediction results for the same RNA sequence. Then, which structure is more important than the others? i.e. which combinations of the methods and related parameters are the optimal? In order to investigate above problems, first, three prediction methods, namely, random stacking of helical regions (RS), helical regions distribution (HD), and Zuker's minimum free energy algorithm (ZMFE) were compared by taking 1139 tRNA sequences from Rfam database as the samples with different combinations of parameters. The optimal parameters are derived. Second, Zuker's dynamic programming method for prediction of RNA secondary structure was revised using the above optimal parameters and related software BJRNAFold was developed. Third, the effects of short-range interaction were studied. The results indicated that the prediction accuracy would be improved much if proper short-range factor were introduced. But the optimal short-range factor was difficult to determine. A user-adjustable parameter for short-range factor was introduced in BJRNAFold software.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제19권8호
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• pp.1530-1537
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• 2016

Recently, solar power generation shows the significant growth in the renewable energy field. Using the short-term prediction, it is possible to control the electric power demand and the power generation plan of the auxiliary device. However, a short-term prediction can be used when you know the weather forecast. If it is not possible to use the weather forecast information because of disconnection of network at the island and the mountains or for security reasons, the accuracy of prediction is not good. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed a system capable of short-term prediction of solar power generation amount by using only the weather information that has been collected by oneself. We used temperature, humidity and insolation as weather information. We have applied a moving average to each information because they had a characteristic of time series. It was composed of min, max and average of each information, differences of mutual information and gradient of it. An artificial neural network, SVM and RBF Network model was used for the prediction algorithm and they were combined by Ensemble method. The results of this suggest that using a moving average during pre-processing and ensemble prediction models will maximize prediction accuracy.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2000년도 추계학술대회논문집A
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• pp.141-146
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• 2000

Crack closure and growth behavior of physically short fatigue cracks under random loading are investigated by performing narrow- and wide-band random loading tests for various stress ratios. The importance of the crack closure phenomenon is examined by predicting the growth lives of short cracks using obtained crack opening behavior. Artificially prepared two-dimensional, short through-thickness cracks are used. The crack opening load of short cracks is much lower under random loading than under constant-amplitude loading corresponding to the largest load cycle in a random load history. This result indicates that the largest load cycle in a random load history has an effect to enhance crack opening of short cracks. Most of the life prediction ratios are within the factor of 2 scatter band except several data at very short crack sizes, indicating that crack growth predictions based on the measured crack opening data are excellent. From the results obtained in this study, it can be concluded that crack closure is the primary factor governing fatigue crack growth of short cracks under random loading as well as under constant-amplitude loading.