• Title/Summary/Keyword: severity estimation

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Estimation of non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases Emissions from Biomass Burning in the Samcheok Large-Fire Area Using Landsat TM Imagery (Landsat TM 영상자료를 활용한 삼척 대형산불 피해지의 비이산화탄소 온실가스 배출량 추정)

  • Won, Myoung-Soo;Koo, Kyo-Sang;Lee, Myung-Bo;Son, Yeong-Mo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2008
  • This study was performed to estimate non-$CO_2$ greenhouse gases (i.e., GHGs) emission from biomass burning at a local scale. Estimation of non-$CO_2$ GHGs emission was conducted using Landsat TM satellite imagery in order to assess the damage degree in burnt area and its effect on non-$CO_2$ GHGs emission. This approach of estimation was based on the protocol of the 2003 IPCC Guidelines. In this study, we used one of the most severe fire cases occurred Samcheock in April, 2004. Landsat TM satellite imageries of pre- and post-fire were used 1) to calculate delta normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for analyzing burnt area and burn severity of the Samcheok large-fire and 2) to quantify non-$CO_2$ GHGs emission from different size of the burnt area and the damage degree. The analysis of dNBR of the Samcheok large-fire indicated that the total burnt area was 16,200ha and the size of the burnt area differed with the burn severity: out of the total burnt area, the burn severities of Low (dNBR < 152), Moderate (dNBR = 153-190), and High (dNBR = 191-255) were 35%, 33%, and 32%, respectively. It was estimated that the burnt areas of coniferous forest, deciduous forest, and mixed forest were about 11,506ha (77%), 453ha (3%), and 2,978ha (20%), respectively. The magnitude of non-$CO_2$ GHGs emissions from the Samcheok large-fire differed significantly, showing 93% of CO (44.100Gg), 6.4% of CH4 (3.053Gg), 0.5% of $NO_x$ (0.238Gg), and 0.1% of $N_2O$ (0.038Gg). Although there were little changes in the total burnt area by the burn severity, there were differences in the emission of non-$CO_2$ GHGs with the degree of the burn severity. The maximum emission of non-$CO_2$ GHGs occurred in moderate burn severity, indicating 47% of the total emission.

Damage assessment of cable stayed bridge using probabilistic neural network

  • Cho, Hyo-Nam;Choi, Young-Min;Lee, Sung-Chil;Hur, Choon-Kun
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.17 no.3_4
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    • pp.483-492
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents an efficient algorithm for the estimation of damage location and severity in bridge structures using Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). Generally, the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN)-based damage detection methods need a lot of training patterns for neural network learning process and the optimum architecture of a BPNN is selected by trial and error. In this paper, the PNN instead of the conventional BPNN is used as a pattern classifier. The modal properties of damaged structure are somewhat different from those of undamaged one. The basic idea of proposed algorithm is that the PNN classifies a test pattern which consists of the modal characteristics from damaged structure, how close it is to each training pattern which is composed of the modal characteristics from various structural damage cases. In this algorithm, two PNNs are sequentially used. The first PNN estimates the damage location using mode shape and the results of the first PNN are put into the second PNN for the damage severity estimation using natural frequency. The proposed damage assessment algorithm using the PNN is applied to a cable-stayed bridge to verify its applicability.

A new method to detect cracks in plate-like structures with though-thickness cracks

  • Xiang, Jiawei;Nackenhorst, Udo;Wang, Yanxue;Jiang, Yongying;Gao, Haifeng;He, Yumin
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.397-418
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, a simple two-step method for structural vibration-based health monitoring for beam-like structures have been extended to plate-like structures with though-thickness cracks. Crack locations and severities of plate-like structures are detected using a hybrid approach. The interval wavelet transform is employed to extract crack singularity locations from mode shape and support vector regression (SVR) is applied to predict crack serviettes form crack severity detection database (the relationship of natural frequencies and crack serviettes) using several natural frequencies as inputs. Of particular interest is the natural frequencies estimation for cracked plate-like structures using Rayleigh quotient. Only the natural frequencies and mode shapes of intact structures are needed to calculate the natural frequencies of cracked plate-like structures using a simple formula. The crack severity detection database can be easily obtained with this formula. The hybrid method is investigated using numerical simulation and its validity of the usage of interval wavelet transform and SVR are addressed.

Baseline Model Updating and Damage Estimation Techniques for Tripod Substructure (트라이포드 하부구조물의 기저모델개선 및 결함추정 기법)

  • Lee, Jong-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.218-226
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    • 2020
  • An experimental study was conducted on baseline model updating and damage estimation techniques for the health monitoring of offshore wind turbine tripod substructures. First, a procedure for substructure health monitoring was proposed. An initial baseline model for a scaled model of a tripod substructure was established. A baseline model was updated based on the natural frequencies and the mode shapes measured in the healthy state. A training pattern was then generated using the updated baseline model, and the damage was estimated by inputting the modal parameters measured in the damaged state into the trained neural network. The baseline model could be updated reasonably using the effective fixity model. The damage tests were performed, and the damage locations could be estimated reasonably. In addition, the estimated damage severity also increased as the actual damage severity increased. On the other hand, when the damage severity was relatively small, the corresponding damage location was detected, but it was more difficult to identify than the other cases. Further studies on small damage estimation and stiffness reduction quantification will be needed before the presented method can be used effectively for the health monitoring of tripod substructures.

Estimation of the Flash Flood Severity using Runoff hydrograph and Flash flood index (유출수문곡선과 돌발홍수지수를 이용한 돌발홍수심도 산정)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2008
  • The flash flood has been studied in the climatological aspect which considers temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall. However, we have not interested in runoff hydrograph for flash flood study. Therefore, our objectives of this study are to apply a work of Bhaskar et. al (2000) which studied runoff hydrograph to represent the flash flood to Korea and also to distinguish flash flood event from general flood event. That is, we quantified the severity of flash flood by estimation of flash flood index using runoff hydrograph. This study estimated the flash flood index for investigating the relative severity of flash flood in Han river basin with 101 flood events. Also we quantified the flash flood severity for flood event by heavy rainfall occurred in July of 2006. As a result, Kangwon-do province showed more severe flash flood than other areas in Han river basin and urban area such as Jungrang cheon stream also showed severe flash flood. We analyzed a flash flood of July of 2006 by dividing July into 1st to 3rd terms. From the analysis we knew that the 1st term of July showed the severe flash flood was occurred in Seoul area and the 2nd term showed it was occurred in Kangwon-do province.

An Analysis of the Drought Period Using Non-Linear Water Balance Model and Palmer Drought Severity1 Index (비선형 물수지모형과 팔머가뭄심도지수를 이용한 가뭄지속기간 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Su
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.533-542
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    • 2001
  • In order to establish drought policy, the estimation of drought period for each drought situation should be preceded. Non-linear Water Balance Model(NWBM) and palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) can be used for analysis of drought period. As a water balance method considering moisture transfer between land surface and atmosphere, NWBM can be used to estimate transition time between dry and wet period induced by stochastic fluctuations. PDSI is also water balance method to show drought severity comparing actual precipitation with climatically appropriate precipitation based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In this study, the drought periods are estimated using NWBM and PDSI for the Han River Basin. The drought periods according to the soil moisture estimated by NWBS and the drought periods according to drought severity index estimated by PDSI show similar trend. The estimated drought period from extreme drought to wet condition for the Han River Basin is about 3years.

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Estimation of the Expected Loss per Exposure of Export Insurance using GLM (일반화 선형모형을 이용한 수출보험의 지급비율 추정)

  • Ju, Hyo Chan;Lee, Hangsuck
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.857-871
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    • 2013
  • Export credit insurance is a policy tool for export growth. In the era of free trade under the governance of WTO, export credit insurance is still allowed as one of the few instruments to increase exports. This paper, using data on short-term export insurance contracts issued to foreign subsidiaries of Korean companies, calculates the expected loss per exposure by combining the effect of risk factors (credit rate of foreign importers, size of mother company, and payment period) on loss frequency and loss severity in different levels. We, applying generalized linear models (GLM), first fit loss frequency and loss severity to negative binomial and lognormal distribution, respectively, and then estimate the loss frequency rate per contract and the ratio of loss severity to coverage amount. Finally, we calculate the expected loss per exposure for each level of risk factors by combining these two rates. Based on the result of statistical analysis, we present the implication for the current premium rate of export insurance.

Risk-based Test Case/Test Set Value Estimation Model (리스크 기반 테스트 케이스/테스트 세트 가치 추정 모델)

  • Kwon, Won-Il;Kim, Jong-Ku;Kwon, Ho-Yeol
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.32 no.A
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    • pp.125-128
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we proposed a prioritization method of test cases using a value estimation model of test sets, that are key elements for highly effective software testings as well as involve a large cost factor in software developments and maintenances. Based on previous studies, our idea includes introducing some practical factors of the test case prioritization which critically influence the value of a test case: Relative values of test sets before and after the test running, Average value of these two relative values, Severity of the defect, Risks that are covered, Frequency of use, Change related values, Systematic elicitations, etc. Finally we discussed the usefulness and the expected effects of the proposed scheme.

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Damage Detection in Jacket-Type Offshore Structures From Few Mode Shapes (소수의 모드형상을 이용한 자켓형 해양구조물의 손상추정에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Jeng-Tae;;Stubbs, Norris
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.144-153
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    • 1994
  • An algorithm to locate and estimate severity of damage in jacket-type offshore structures for which modal responses are availabit' for very few vibrational modes is presented. First, a theory of damage locaization and severity estimation(which yields information on the location and severity of damage directly from changes in mode shapes) is formulated. Next, the feasibility the damage detection algorithm is demonstrated by using a numerical example of an offshore jacket platform for which only three vibration modes are measured. Form the material presented here, two major results are observed. First, all damage locations in the offshore jacket platform are correctly predicted. Next, predicted damage is relatively correctly estimated.

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A Study on Estimation and Management of Loss Due to Catastrophic Accident (화학공장의 중대사고에 따른 예상손실액 산정 및 대책연구)

  • 구남주;엄성인;고재욱
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.120-125
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    • 1999
  • This study evaluated the effect of the accidents caused by fire, explosion, and toxic gas release by using SuperChems, quantitative hazardous material release modeling software, which estimates the potential area of damage. According to the loss severity, the appropriate risk management principles can be applied. Risk management is divided into the two methods which are risk control and risk financing. Risk control includes risk avoidance, risk spreading and diversification, and risk reduction. Risk financing includes risk retention and risk transfer. The results of this study can help the related company determine the appropriate reserve fund and the amount to be insured against the third party losses according to the estimated loss severity.

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