• Title/Summary/Keyword: sequential sampling

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Choosing an optimal connecting place of a nuclear power plant to a power system using Monte Carlo and LHS methods

  • Kiomarsi, Farshid;Shojaei, Ali Asghar;Soltani, Sepehr
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.7
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    • pp.1587-1596
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    • 2020
  • The location selection for nuclear power plants (NPP) is a strategic decision, which has significant impact operation of the plant and sustainable development of the region. Further, the ranking of the alternative locations and selection of the most suitable and efficient locations for NPPs is an important multi-criteria decision-making problem. In this paper, the non-sequential Monte Carlo probabilistic method and the Latin hypercube sampling probabilistic method are used to evaluate and select the optimal locations for NPP. These locations are identified by the power plant's onsite loads and the average of the lowest number of relay protection after the NPP's trip, based on electricity considerations. The results obtained from the proposed method indicate that in selecting the optimal location for an NPP after a power plant trip with the purpose of internal onsite loads of the power plant and the average of the lowest number of relay protection power system, on the IEEE RTS 24-bus system network given. This paper provides an effective and systematic study of the decision-making process for evaluating and selecting optimal locations for an NPP.

Binomial Sampling Plans for the Citrus Red Mite, Panonychus citri(Acari: Tetranychidae) on Satsuma Mandarin Groves in Jeju (온주밀감에서 귤응애의 이항표본조사법 개발)

  • 송정흡;이창훈;강상훈;김동환;강시용;류기중
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.197-202
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    • 2001
  • The density of citrus red mite(CRM), Panonychus citri(McGregor), on the commercial satsuma mandarin Citrus unshiu L. groves were determined by counts of the number of CRM per leaf using by leaf sample in Jeju for 2 years. Binomial sampling plans were developed based on the relationship between the mean density per leaf(m) and the proportion of leaf infested with less than T mites per leaf($P_{T}$), according to the empirical model $ln(m)={\alpha}+{\beta}ln(-ln(1-P_{T}))$. T was defined as tally threshold, and set to 1, 3, 5 and 7 mites per leaf in this study. Increasing sample size, regardless of tally threshold, had little effects on the precision of the binomial sampling plan. Increasing sampling size had little effect on the precision of the estimated mean regardless of tally thresholds. T=1 was chosen as the best tally threshold for estimating densities of CRM based on the precision of the model. The binomial model with T=1 provided reliable predictions of mean densities of CRM observed on the commercial satsuma mandarin groves. Binomial sequential sampling procedure were developed for classifying the density of CRM. A binomial sampling program for decision-making CRM population level based on action threshold of 2 mites per leaf was obtained.

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Reliability Acceptance Sampling Plans with Sequentially Supplied Samples (시료가 축차적으로 공급되는 상황에서의 신뢰성 샘플링검사 계획)

  • Koo, Jung-Seo;Kim, Min;Yum, Bong-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2007
  • A reliability acceptance sampling plan (RASP) consists of a set of life test procedures and rules for eitheraccepting or rejecting a collection of items based on the sampled lifetime data. Most of the existing RASPs areconcerned with the case where test items are available at the same time. However, as in the early stage ofproduct development, it may be difficult to secure test items at the same time. In such a case, it is inevitable toconduct a life test using sequentially supplied samples.In this paper, it is assumed that test items are sequentially supplied, the lifetimes of test items follow anexponential disthbution, failures are monitored continuously, arrival times of test items are known, and thenumber of test items at each arrival time is given. Under these assumptions, RASPs are developed by deter-mining the test completion time and the critical value for the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean lifetimesuch that the producer and consumer risks are satisfied. Then, the developed plans are compared to thetraditional Type-I censored RASPs in terms of the test completion time. Computational results indicate that thetest completion time of the developed RASP is shorter than that of the traditional Type-I censored plan in mostcases considered. It is also found that the superiority of the developed RASP becomes more prominent as theinter-arrival times of test items increase and/or the total number of test items gets larger.

Sequential Sampling Plan for Aphis gossypii (Hemiptera: Aphididae) based on Its Intra-plant Distribution Patterns in Greenhouse Cucumber at Different Growth Stages (온실재배 오이의 생육단계별 목화진딧물의 주내 분포 특성에 기초한 축차표본조사법)

  • Chung, Bu-Keun;Song, Jeong-Heub;Lee, Heung-Su;Choi, Byeong-Ryul
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.401-407
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    • 2015
  • This study describes the development of a method for monitoring Aphis gossypii in greenhouse cucumber fields that was used during 2013 and 2014. The dispersion pattern of A. gossypii was determined by commonly used methods: Taylor's power law (TPL) and Iwao's patchiness regression (IPR). The sample unit was determined by linear regression analysis between mean density of sample unit versus whole plant. The optimum sample unit for different plant growth stages was two leaves (median and the lowest + 1 leaf) when the total number of leaves was less than nine, and three leaves (4th, 7th from canopy, and the lowest +1 leaf) when the total number of leaves was greater than nine. A. gossypii showed an aggregated distribution pattern, as the slopes of both TPL and IPR lines were greater than 1. TPL provided a better description of the mean-variance relationship than did IPR. The slopes and intercepts of TPL and IPR from leaf samples did not differ between the surveyed years. Fixed precision levels (D) for a sequential sampling plan were developed using Green's and Kuno's equations based on the number of aphid in a leaf sample. Green's method was more efficient than Kuno's to stop sampling. The number of samples needed to estimate the density of A. gossypii increased at higher D levels and lower mean densities. The cumulative number of aphids needed to stop sampling increased at higher D levels and with fewer plants sampled. Thus to estimate 10 aphids per leaf, 13 plants needed to be sampled, and the cumulative number of aphids to stop sampling was 131.

Shape Optimization of a Trapezoidal Micro-Channel (사다리꼴 미세유로의 형상최적화)

  • Husain, Afzal;Kim, Kwang-Yong
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05b
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    • pp.2666-2671
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    • 2007
  • This work presents microchannel heat sink shape optimization procedure using Kriging method. Design variables relating to microchannel width, depth and fin width are selected, and thermal resistance has been taken as objective function. Design points are selected through a three-level fractional factorial design of sampling method. Navier-Stokes and energy equations for laminar flow and conjugate heat transfer are solved at these design points using a finite volume solver. Solutions are carefully validated with experimental results. Using the numerically evaluated objective function, a surrogate model (Kriging) is constructed and optimum point is searched by sequential quadratic programming. The process of shape optimization greatly improves the thermal performance of microchannel heat sink under constant pumping power.

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A Study on Injection Mold Design Using Approximation Optimization (근사 최적화 방법을 이용한 사출금형 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Byon, Sung-Kwang;Choi, Ha-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.55-60
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    • 2020
  • The injection molding technique is a processing method widely used for the production of plastic parts. In this study, the gate position, gate size, packing time, and melt temperature were optimized to minimize both the stress and deformation that occur during the injection molding process of medical suction device components. We used a central composite design and Latin hypercube sampling to acquire the data and adopted the response surface method as an approximation method. The efficiency of the optimization of the injection molding problem was determined by comparing the results of a genetic algorithm, sequential quadratic programming, and a non-dominant classification genetic algorithm.

Shape Optimization of a Micro-Channel Using Kriging Model (크리깅 모델을 이용한 미세유로의 형상최적설계)

  • Husain, Afzal;Kim, Kwang-Yong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.31 no.9
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    • pp.733-740
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    • 2007
  • Microchannel heat sink shape optimization is performed using Kriging method. Design variables relating to microchannel width, depth and fin width are selected, and thermal resistance has been taken as objective function. Design points are selected through a three-level fractional factorial design of sampling method. Navier-Stokes and energy equations for laminar flow and conjugate heat transfer are solved at these design points using a finite volume solver. Solutions are carefully validated with experimental results. Using the numerically evaluated objective function, a surrogate model (Kriging) is constructed and optimum point is searched by sequential quadratic programming. The process of shape optimization greatly improves the thermal performance of microchannel heat sink under constant pumping power.

Electromagnet Design for 10 MeV AVF Cyclotron Using the Sequential Approximation Technique (순차적 근사화기법을 이용한 10 MeV AVF 사이클로트론 전자석 설계)

  • Kim, Su-Hun;Kwak, Chang-Seob;Lee, Se-Hee
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2015.07a
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    • pp.788-789
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    • 2015
  • 본 논문에서는 사이클로트론 전자석의 설계과정을 체계화하고, 자기장 최적화 과정을 순차적 근사화 기법을 이용하여 설계를 진행하였다. 설계하는 전자석은 방사성동위원소생산을 목적으로하는 PET(Positron Emission Tomography) 사이클로트론 이며, 크기를 줄이고 동위원소의 효율적인 생산을 위해 에너지대역은 10MeV로 선정하였다. 설계과정은 실험계획법 중 하나인 LHS(Latin Hypercube Sampling) 기법을 통해 샘플 데이터를 구성하고, 이를 바탕으로 크리깅을 이용해 근사모델을 구성한다. 근사 모델과 진화 알고리즘을 이용해 목적에 맞는 최적의 형상을 찾을 수 있다. 이러한 과정을 반복함으로써 점진적으로 목적에 부합하는 형상을 찾을 수 있다. 각각의 형상의 성능을 판단하는 목적함수를 단계별로 규칙을 정함으로써 결과의 신뢰도를 높인다. 이로써 시간적 효율을 증대시키고 전문지식이 부족한 설계자도 고성능의 형상을 얻을 수 있다. 최적화과정은 STEP1과 STEP2로 나누어 진행되며, STEP1에서는 초기사이클로트론 전자석을 설계하고, 자기장 최적화를 진행한다. STEP2에서는 빔 시뮬레이션 및 분석을 통하여 최적화를 진행하고, 최종적으로 전자석모델을 완성한다.

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Design Optimization of an Impingement Jet on Concave Surface for Enhancement of Heat Transfer Performance (곡면에서의 열전달성능 향상을 위한 충돌제트의 최적설계)

  • Heo, M.W.;Lee, K.D.;Kim, K.Y.
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.100-103
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    • 2011
  • In the present work, a numerical study of fluid flow and heat transfer on the concave surface with impinging jet has been performed by solving three-dimensional Reynods-averaged Naver-Stokes(RANS) equations. The constant temperature condition was applied to the concave impingement surface. The inclination angle of jet nozzle and the distance between jet nozzles are chosen as design variables under equivalent mass flow rate of working fluid into cooling channel, and area averaged Nusselt number on concave impingement surface is set as the objective function. Thirteen training points are obtained by Latin Hypercube sampling method, and the PEA model is constructed by using the objective function values at the trainging points. And, the sequential quadratic programming is used to search for the optimal paint from the PBA model. Through the optimization, the optimal shape shows improved heat transfer rate as compared to the reference geometry.

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Validation Technique using variance and confidence interval of metamodel (근사모델의 분산과 신뢰구간을 이용한 모델의 정확도 평가법)

  • Han, In-Sik;Lee, Yong-Bin;Choi, Dong-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.1169-1175
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    • 2008
  • The validation technique is classified with two methods whether to demand of additional experimental points. The method which requires additional experimental points such as RSME is actually impossible in engineering field. Therefore, the method which only use experimented points such as the cross validation technique is only available. But the cross validation not only requires considerable computational costs for generating metamodel each iterations, but also cannot measure quantitatively the fidelity of metamodel. In this research we propose a new validation technique for representative metamodels using an variance of metamodel and confidence interval information. The proposed validation technique computes confidence intervals using a variance information from the metamodel. This technique will have influence on choosing the accurate metamodel, constructing ensemble of each metamodels and advancing effectively sequential sampling technique.

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