• Title/Summary/Keyword: sequential Monte Carlo

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Sequential detection simulation of red-tide evolution for geostationary ocean color instrument with realistic optical characteristics

  • Jeong, Soo-Min;Jeong, Yu-Kyeong;Ryu, Dong-Ok;Kim, Seong-Hui;Cho, Seong-Ick;Hong, Jin-Suk;Kim, Sug-Whan
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.49.3-49.3
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    • 2009
  • Geostationary Ocean Colour Imager (GOCI) is the first ocean color instrument that will be operating in a geostationary orbit from 2010. GOCI will provide the crucial information of ocean environment around the Korean peninsula in high spatial and temporal resolutions at eight visible bands. We report an on-going development of imaging and radiometric performance prediction model for GOCI with realistic data for reflectance, transmittance, absorption, wave-front error and scattering properties for its optical elements. For performance simulation, Monte Carlo based ray tracing technique was used along the optical path starting from the Sun to the final detector plane for a fixed solar zenith angle. This was then followed by simulation of red-tide evolution detection and their radiance estimation, following the in-orbit operational sequence. The simulation results proves the GOCI flight model is capable of detecting both image and radiance originated from the key ocean phenomena including red tide. The model details and computational process are discussed with implications to other earth observation instruments.

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Development of the Computational Model to Evaluate Integrated Reliability in Water Distribution Network (상수관망의 통합신뢰도 산정을 위한 해석모형의 개발)

  • Park, Jae-Hong;Han, Kun-Yeon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2003
  • The computation model which evaluates combined hydraulic and mechanical reliability, is developed to analyze the integrated reliability in water distribution system. The hydraulic reliability is calculated by considering uncertain variables like water demand, hydraulic pressure, pipe roughness as random variables according to proper distribution type. The mechanical reliability is evaluated by analyzing the effect of pipe network with sequential failure of network components. The result of this study model applied to the real pipe network shows that this model can be used to simulate the uncertain factors effectively in real pipe network. Therefore, The pipe-line engineers can design and manage the network system with more quantitative reliability, through applying this model to reliable pipe network design and diagnosis of existing systems.

Structural system reliability-based design optimization considering fatigue limit state

  • Nophi Ian D. Biton;Young-Joo Lee
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.177-188
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    • 2024
  • The fatigue-induced sequential failure of a structure having structural redundancy requires system-level analysis to account for stress redistribution. System reliability-based design optimization (SRBDO) for preventing fatigue-initiated structural failure is numerically costly owing to the inclusion of probabilistic constraints. This study incorporates the Branch-and-Bound method employing system reliability Bounds (termed the B3 method), a failure-path structural system reliability analysis approach, with a metaheuristic optimization algorithm, namely grey wolf optimization (GWO), to obtain the optimal design of structures under fatigue-induced system failure. To further improve the efficiency of this new optimization framework, an additional bounding rule is proposed in the context of SRBDO against fatigue using the B3 method. To demonstrate the proposed method, it is applied to complex problems, a multilayer Daniels system and a three-dimensional tripod jacket structure. The system failure probability of the optimal design is confirmed to be below the target threshold and verified using Monte Carlo simulation. At earlier stages of the optimization, a smaller number of limit-state function evaluation is required, which increases the efficiency. In addition, the proposed method can allocate limited materials throughout the structure optimally so that the optimally-designed structure has a relatively large number of failure paths with similar failure probability.

Sequential Bayesian Updating Module of Input Parameter Distributions for More Reliable Probabilistic Safety Assessment of HLW Radioactive Repository (고준위 방사성 폐기물 처분장 확률론적 안전성평가 신뢰도 제고를 위한 입력 파라미터 연속 베이지안 업데이팅 모듈 개발)

  • Lee, Youn-Myoung;Cho, Dong-Keun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.179-194
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    • 2020
  • A Bayesian approach was introduced to improve the belief of prior distributions of input parameters for the probabilistic safety assessment of radioactive waste repository. A GoldSim-based module was developed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm and implemented through GSTSPA (GoldSim Total System Performance Assessment), a GoldSim template for generic/site-specific safety assessment of the radioactive repository system. In this study, sequential Bayesian updating of prior distributions was comprehensively explained and used as a basis to conduct a reliable safety assessment of the repository. The prior distribution to three sequential posterior distributions for several selected parameters associated with nuclide transport in the fractured rock medium was updated with assumed likelihood functions. The process was demonstrated through a probabilistic safety assessment of the conceptual repository for illustrative purposes. Through this study, it was shown that insufficient observed data could enhance the belief of prior distributions for input parameter values commonly available, which are usually uncertain. This is particularly applicable for nuclide behavior in and around the repository system, which typically exhibited a long time span and wide modeling domain.

A Parallel Sphere Decoder Algorithm for High-order MIMO System (고차 MIMO 시스템을 위한 저 복잡도 병렬 구형 검출 알고리즘)

  • Koo, Jihun;Kim, Jaehoon;Kim, Yongsuk;Kim, Jaeseok
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, a low complexity parallel sphere decoder algorithm is proposed for high-order MIMO system. It reduces the computational complexity compared to the fixed-complexity sphere decoder (FSD) algorithm by static tree-pruning and dynamic tree-pruning using scalable node operators, and offers near-maximum likelihood decoding performance. Moreover, it also offers hardware-friendly node operation algorithm through fixing the variable computational complexity caused by the sequential nature of the conventional SD algorithm. A Monte Carlo simulation shows our proposed algorithm decreases the average number of expanded nodes by 55% with only 6.3% increase of the normalized decoding time compared to a full parallelized FSD algorithm for high-order MIMO communication system with 16 QAM modulation.

The Availability of the step optimization in Monaco Planning system (모나코 치료계획 시스템에서 단계적 최적화 조건 실현의 유용성)

  • Kim, Dae Sup
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.207-216
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    • 2014
  • Purpose : We present a method to reduce this gap and complete the treatment plan, to be made by the re-optimization is performed in the same conditions as the initial treatment plan different from Monaco treatment planning system. Materials and Methods : The optimization is carried in two steps when performing the inverse calculation for volumetric modulated radiation therapy or intensity modulated radiation therapy in Monaco treatment planning system. This study was the first plan with a complete optimization in two steps by performing all of the treatment plan, without changing the optimized condition from Step 1 to Step 2, a typical sequential optimization performed. At this time, the experiment was carried out with a pencil beam and Monte Carlo algorithm is applied In step 2. We compared initial plan and re-optimized plan with the same optimized conditions. And then evaluated the planning dose by measurement. When performing a re-optimization for the initial treatment plan, the second plan applied the step optimization. Results : When the common optimization again carried out in the same conditions in the initial treatment plan was completed, the result is not the same. From a comparison of the treatment planning system, similar to the dose-volume the histogram showed a similar trend, but exhibit different values that do not satisfy the conditions best optimized dose, dose homogeneity and dose limits. Also showed more than 20% different in comparison dosimetry. If different dose algorithms, this measure is not the same out. Conclusion : The process of performing a number of trial and error, and you get to the ultimate goal of treatment planning optimization process. If carried out to optimize the completion of the initial trust only the treatment plan, we could be made of another treatment plan. The similar treatment plan could not satisfy to optimization results. When you perform re-optimization process, you will need to apply the step optimized conditions, making sure the dose distribution through the optimization process.

A Comparison Study of Model Parameter Estimation Methods for Prognostics (건전성 예측을 위한 모델변수 추정방법의 비교)

  • An, Dawn;Kim, Nam Ho;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.355-362
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    • 2012
  • Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction of a system is important in the prognostics field since it is directly linked with safety and maintenance scheduling. In the physics-based prognostics, accurately estimated model parameters can predict the remaining useful life exactly. It, however, is not a simple task to estimate the model parameters because most real system have multivariate model parameters, also they are correlated each other. This paper presents representative methods to estimate model parameters in the physics-based prognostics and discusses the difference between three methods; the particle filter method(PF), the overall Bayesian method(OBM), and the sequential Bayesian method(SBM). The three methods are based on the same theoretical background, the Bayesian estimation technique, but the methods are distinguished from each other in the sampling methods or uncertainty analysis process. Therefore, a simple physical model as an easy task and the Paris model for crack growth problem are used to discuss the difference between the three methods, and the performance of each method evaluated by using established prognostics metrics is compared.