• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.309-322
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• 2023

The Hawkes process is a point process with self-exciting characteristics. It has been mainly used to describe seismic phenomena in which aftershocks occur due to the main earthquake. Recently, it has been used to explain various phenomena with self-exciting properties, such as the spread of infectious diseases and the spread of news on SNS. The Hawkes process can be flexibly modified according to the characteristics of events by using various types of excitation functions. Since it is difficult to implement a maximum likelihood estimator numerically, estimation methods have been improved until recently. In this paper, the conditional intensity function and excitation function are explained to describe the Hawkes process. Then, existing examples of Hawkes processes used in seismic, epidemiological, criminal, and financial fields are described and estimation methods are introduced. I analyze earthquakes that occurred in gyeongsang-do, Korea from November 2017 to December 2022, using R package ETAS.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.101-111
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• 2023

Structural health monitoring (SHM) covers a range of damage detection strategies for buildings. In real-time, SHM provides a basis for rapid decision making to optimise the speed and economic efficiency of post-event response. Previous work introduced an SHM method based on identifying structural nonlinear hysteretic parameters and their evolution from structural force-deformation hysteresis loops in real-time. This research extends and generalises this method to investigate the impact of a wide range of flag-shaped or pinching shape nonlinear hysteretic response and its impact on the SHM accuracy. A particular focus is plastic stiffness (K_p), where accurate identification of this parameter enables accurate identification of net and total plastic deformation and plastic energy dissipated, all of which are directly related to damage and infrequently assessed in SHM. A sensitivity study using a realistic seismic case study with known ground truth values investigates the impact of hysteresis loop shape, as well as added noise, on SHM accuracy using a suite of 20 ground motions from the PEER database. Monte Carlo analysis over 22,000 simulations with different hysteresis loops and added noise resulted in absolute percentage identification error (median, (IQR)) in K_p of 1.88% (0.79, 4.94)%. Errors were larger where five events (Earthquakes #1, 6, 9, 14) have very large errors over 100% for resulted K_p as an almost entirely linear response yielded only negligible plastic response, increasing identification error. The sensitivity analysis shows accuracy is reduces to within 3% when plastic drift is induced. This method shows clear potential to provide accurate, real-time metrics of non-linear stiffness and deformation to assist rapid damage assessment and decision making, utilising algorithms significantly simpler than previous non-linear structural model-based parameter identification SHM methods.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.02b
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• pp.43-50
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• 2009

Strong ground motion attenuation relationship represents a comprehensive trend of ground shakings at sites with distances from the source, geology, local soil conditions, and others. It is necessary to develop an attenuation relationship with careful considerations of characteristics of the target area for reliable seismic hazard/risk assessments. In the study, observed ground motions from the January 2007 magnitude 4.9 Odaesan earthquake and the events occurring in the Gyeongsang provinces are compared with the previously proposed ground attenuation relationships in the Korean Peninsula to select most appropriate one. In the meantime, a few strong ground motion attenuation relationships are proposed and introduced in HAZUS, which have been designed for the Western United States and the Central and Eastern United States. The selected relationship from the ones for the Korean Peninsula has been compared with attenuation relationships available in HAZUS. Then, the attenuation relation for the Western United States proposed by Sadigh et al. (1997) for the Site Class B has been selected for this study. Reliability of the assessment will be improved by using an appropriate attenuation relation. It has been used for the earthquake loss estimation of the Gyeongju area located in southeast Korea using the deterministic method in HAZUS with a scenario earthquake (M=6.7). Our preliminary estimates show 15.6% damage of houses, shelter needs for about three thousands residents, and 75 life losses in the study area for the scenario events occurring at 2 A.M. Approximately 96% of hospitals will be in normal operation in 24 hours from the proposed event. Losses related to houses will be more than 114 million US dollars. Application of the improved methodology for loss estimation in Korea will help decision makers for planning disaster responses and hazard mitigation.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.149-165
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• 2016

Floods have been known to be one of the main causes of bridge collapse. Contrary to earthquakes, flood events tend to occur repeatedly and more frequently in rainfall areas; flood-induced damage and collapse account for a significant portion of disasters in many countries. Nevertheless, in contrast to extensive research on the seismic fragility analysis for civil infrastructure, relatively little attention has been devoted to the flood-related fragility. The present study proposes a novel methodology for deriving flood fragility curves for bridges. Fragility curves are generally derived by means of structural reliability analysis, and structural failure modes are defined as excessive demands of the displacement ductility of a bridge under increased water pressure resulting from debris accumulation and structural deterioration, which are known to be the primary causes of bridge failures during flood events. Since these bridge failure modes need to be analyzed through sophisticated structural analysis, flood fragility curve derivation that would require repeated finite element analyses may take a long time. To calculate the probability of flood-induced failure of bridges efficiently, in the proposed framework, the first order reliability method (FORM) is employed for reducing the required number of finite element analyses. In addition, two software packages specialized for reliability analysis and finite element analysis, FERUM (Finite Element Reliability Using MATLAB) and ABAQUS, are coupled so that they can exchange their inputs and outputs during structural reliability analysis, and a Python-based interface for FERUM and ABAQUS is newly developed to effectively coordinate the fragility analysis. The proposed framework of flood fragility analysis is applied to an actual reinforced concrete bridge in South Korea to demonstrate the detailed procedure of the approach.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.710-720
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• 2017

In Korea, many nuclear power plants operate at a single site based on geographical characteristics, but the population density near the sites is higher than that in other countries. Thus, multiunit accidents are a more important consideration than in other countries and should be addressed appropriately. Currently, there are many issues related to a multiunit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). One of them is the quantification of a multiunit PSA model. A traditional PSA uses a Boolean manipulation of the fault tree in terms of the minimal cut set. However, such methods have some limitations when rare event approximations cannot be used effectively or a very small truncation limit should be applied to identify accident sequence combinations for a multiunit site. In particular, it is well known that seismic risk in terms of core damage frequency can be overestimated because there are many events that have a high failure probability. In this study, we propose a quantification method based on a Monte Carlo approach for a multiunit PSA model. This method can consider all possible accident sequence combinations in a multiunit site and calculate a more exact value for events that have a high failure probability. An example model for six identical units at a site was also developed and quantified to confirm the applicability of the proposed method.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.123-131
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• 2003

Geophysical surveys(electrical resistivity, self-potential, seismic refraction, GPR) were conducted to investigate the physical properties of the subsurface, and to delineate the flow channel of leachate from a AMD(acid mine drainage), buried rock wastes and tailings, and drainage pipes at an abandoned mine(Kwangyang mine). Especially in rainy season the sites appear to be abundant in AMD leachate, characterized by electrical conductivities of 0.98-1.10 ms/S. Electrical resistivity sections indicate that the leachate flows running in two directions at southern part rise up through the narrow fracture zones at the central part and contaminates the surrounding soil and stream. Such schematic features at the anomalous zone are well correlated with negative peaks in self-potential data, the limited penetration depth in GPR data and low velocity zone in seismic refraction data. Shallow high-resistivity zone is associated with the buried rock wastes which cause the diffractions in GPR image. In addition, the events at depth of approximately 1-1.25 m in GPR sections must be the metal pipes through which AMD is drained off to the inner bay.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.289-297
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• 2011

Chirp sub-bottom profilers (SBP) data are comparatively higher-resolution data than other seismic data and it's raw signal can be used as a final section after conducting basic filtering. However, Chirp SBP signal has possibility to include various noise in high-frequency band and to provide the distorted image for the complex geological structure in time domain. This study aims at the goal to establish the workflow of Chirp SBP data processing for enhanced image and to analyze the proper parameters for the domestic continental shelf. After pre-processing, we include the dynamic S/N filtering to eliminate the high-frequency component noise, the dip scan stack to enhance the continuity of reflection events and finally the post-stack depth migration to correct the distorted structure on the time domain sections. We demonstrated our workflow on the data acquired by domestically widely used equipments and then we could obtain the improved seismic sections of depth domain. This workflow seems to provide the proper seismic section to interpretation when applied to data processing of Chirp SBP that are largely used for domestic acquisition.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.57-63
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• 2003

For the dectection of small cavity in the hard rock, we investigated the feasibility of crosswell travel-time tomography and Kirchhoff migration technique. In travel-time tomography, first arrival anomaly caused by small cavity was investigated by numerical modeling based on the knowledge of actual field information. First arrival delay was very small (<0.125 msec) and detectable receiver offset range was limited to 4m with respect to $1\%$ normalized first arrival anomaly. As a consequence, it was turned out that carefully designed survey array with both sufficient narrow spatial spacing and temporal (<0.03125 msec) sampling were required for small cavity detection. Also, crosswell Kirchhoff migration technique was investigated with both numerical and real data. Stack section obtained by numerical data shows the good cavity image. In crosswell seismic data, various unwanted seismic events such as direct wave and various mode converted waves were alto recorded. To remove these noises und to enhance the diffraction signal, combination of median and bandpass filtering was applied and prestack and stacked migration images were created. From this, we viewed the crosswell migration technique as one of the adoptable method for small cavity detection.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.459-466
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• 2012

A difficulty encountered in engineering seismic mapping is that reflection events from shallow discontinuities are commonly overlapped with coherent noise such as air wave, direct waves, head waves, and high-amplitude surface waves. Here, the radial trace transform, a simple geometric re-mapping of a trace gather (x-t domain) to another trace gather (v-t domain), is applied to investigate the rejection effect of coherent linear noises. Two different types of data sets were selected as a representative database: good-quality data for intermediate sounding (hundreds of meters) in a sedimentary basin and very noisy data for shallow (${\leq}50m$) mapping of the weathered zone and bedrock surface. Results obtained with cascaded application of the radial transform and low-cut filtering proved to be as good as, or better than, those produced using f-k filtering, and were especially effective for air wave and direct wave. This simple transform enables better understanding of the characteristics of various types of noise in the RT domain, and can be generally applied to overcoming diffractions and back-scatterings caused by joints, fractures, and faults commonly that are encountered in geotechnical problems.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.127-139
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• 1998

A new technique of simultaneous inversion for 3-D seismic velocity structure by using direct, reflected, and refracted waves is applied to the southeast part of the Korean Peninsula including Pohang Basin, Kyongsang Basin and Ryongnam Massif. Pg, Sg, PmP, SmS, Pn, and Sn arrival times of 44 events with 554 seismic rays are inverted for locations and crustal structure. $6{\times}6$ with $0.5^{\circ}$ and 8 layers (4 km each layer) model was inverted. 3-D seismic crustal velocity tomography including eight sections from surface to Moho, ten profiles along latitude and longitude are analyzed. The results are as follows: 1) the average velocity and thickness of sediment are 5.04 km/s and 3-4 km, and the velocity of basement is 6.11 km/s. The shape of velocity in shallower layer is agreement with Bouguer gravity anomaly (Cho et al., 1997). 2) the velocities fluctuate strongly in the upper crust. The velocity distribution of the lower crust under Conrad appears basically horizontal. 3) the average depth of Moho is 30.4 km, and velocity is 8.01 km/s. 4) from the velocity and depth of the sediment, the thickness, velocity and form of the upper crust, and the depth and form of Moho, we can find the obvious differences among Ryongnam Massif, Kyongsang Basin and Pohang Basin. 5) the deep faults (a Ulsan series faults) near Kyongju and Pohang areas can be found to be normal and/or thrust faults with detachment extended to the bottom of the upper crust.