• Title/Summary/Keyword: seasonal variation method

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Stochastic Characteristics of Water Quality Variation of the Chungju Lake (충주호 수질변동의 추계학적 특성)

  • 정효준;황대호;백도현;이홍근
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2001
  • The characteristics of water quality variation were predicted by stochastic model in Chungju dam, north Chungcheong province of south Korea, Monthly time series data of water quality from 1989 to 2001;temperature, BOD, COD and SS, were obtained from environmental yearbook and internet homepage of ministry of environment. Development of model was carried out with Box-Jenkins method, which includes model identification, estimation and diagnostic checking. ACF and PACF were used to model identification. AIC and BIC were used to model estimation. Seosonal multiplicative ARIMA(1, 0, 1)(1, 1, 0)$_{12}$ model was appropriate to explain stochastic characteristics of temperature. BOD model was ARMa(2, 2, 1), COD was seasonal multiplicative ARIMA(2. 0. 1)(1. 0, 1)$_{12}$, and SS was ARIMA(1, 0, 2) respectively. The simulated water quality data showed a good fitness to the observed data, as a result of model verification.ion.

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Long-term Environmental Changes and the Interpretations from a Marine Benthic Ecologist's Perspective (I) - Physical Environment

  • Yoo Jae-Won;Hong Jae-Sang;Lee Jae June
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 1999
  • Before investigating the long-term variations in macrobenthic communities sampled in the Chokchon macrotidal flat in Inchon, Korea, from 1989 to 1996, we need to understand how environmental factors in the area vary. As potential governing agents of tidal flat communities, abiotic factors such as mean sea level, seawater, air temperature, and precipitation were considered. Data for these factors were collected at equal intervals from 1976 or 1980 to 1996, and were analyzed using a decomposition method. In this analysis, all the above variables showed strong seasonal nature, and yielded a significant trend and cyclical variation. Positive trends were seen in the seawater and air temperatures, and based upon this relationship, it was found that the biological sampling period of our program has been carried out during warmer periods in succession. This paper puts forth some hypotheses concerning the response of tidal flat macrobenthos communities to the changing environment including mild winters in succession.

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Optimal Forecasting for Sales at Convenience Stores in Korea Using a Seasonal ARIMA-Intervention Model (계절형 ARIMA-Intervention 모형을 이용한 한국 편의점 최적 매출예측)

  • Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - During the last two years, convenient stores (CS) are emerging as one of the most fast-growing retail trades in Korea. The goal of this work is to forecast and to analyze sales at CS using ARIMA-Intervention model (IM) and exponential smoothing method (ESM), together with sales at supermarkets in South Korea. Considering that two retail trades above are homogeneous and comparable in size and purchasing items on off-line distribution channel, individual behavior and characteristic can be detected and also relative superiority of future growth can be forecasted. In particular, the rapid growth of sales at CS is regarded as an everlasting external event, or step intervention, so that IM with season variation can be examined. At the same time, Winters ESM can be investigated as an alternative to seasonal ARIMA-IM, on the assumption that the underlying series shows exponentially decreasing weights over time. In case of sales at supermarkets, the marked intervention could not be found over the underlying periods, so that only Winters ESM is considered. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - The dataset of this research is obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (1/2010~7/2016) and Survey of Service Trend of Korea Statistics Administration. This work is exploited time series analyses such as IM, ESM and model-fitting statistics by using TSPLOT, TSMODEL, EXSMOOTH, ARIMA and MODELFIT procedures in SPSS 23.0. Results - By applying seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model to sales at CS, the steep and persisting increase can be expected over the next one year. On the other hand, we expect the rate of sales growth of supermarkets to be lagging and tied up constantly in the next 2016 year. Conclusions - Based on 2017 one-year sales forecasts for CS and supermarkets, we can yield the useful information for the development of CS and also for all retail trades. Future study is needed to analyze sales of popular items individually such as tobacco, banana milk, soju and so on and to get segmented results. Furthermore, we can expand sales forecasts to other retail trades such as department stores, hypermarkets, non-store retailing, so that comprehensive diagnostics can be delivered in the future.

Semantic Visual Place Recognition in Dynamic Urban Environment (동적 도시 환경에서 의미론적 시각적 장소 인식)

  • Arshad, Saba;Kim, Gon-Woo
    • The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.334-338
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    • 2022
  • In visual simultaneous localization and mapping (vSLAM), the correct recognition of a place benefits in relocalization and improved map accuracy. However, its performance is significantly affected by the environmental conditions such as variation in light, viewpoints, seasons, and presence of dynamic objects. This research addresses the problem of feature occlusion caused by interference of dynamic objects leading to the poor performance of visual place recognition algorithm. To overcome the aforementioned problem, this research analyzes the role of scene semantics in correct detection of a place in challenging environments and presents a semantics aided visual place recognition method. Semantics being invariant to viewpoint changes and dynamic environment can improve the overall performance of the place matching method. The proposed method is evaluated on the two benchmark datasets with dynamic environment and seasonal changes. Experimental results show the improved performance of the visual place recognition method for vSLAM.

Determination of Unit Hydrograph for the Hydrological Modelling of Long-term Run-off in the Major River Systems in Korea (장기유출의 수문적 모형개발을 위한 주요 수계별 단위도 유도)

  • 엄병현;박근수
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.52-65
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    • 1984
  • In general precise estimation of hourly of daily distribution of the long-term run-off should be very important in a design of source of irrigation. However, there have not been a satisfying method for forecasting of stationar'y long-term run-off in Korea. Solving this problem, this study introduces unit-hydrograph method frequently used in short-term run-off analysis into the long-term run-off analysis, of which model basin was selected to be Sumgin-river catchment area. In the estimation of effective rainfall, conventional method neglects the Soil moisture condition of catchment area, but in this study, the initial discharge (qb) occurred just before rising phase of the hydrograph was selected as the index of a basin soil moisture condition and then introduced as 3rd variable in the analysis of the reationship between cumulative rainfall and cumulative loss of rainfall, which built a new type of separation method of effective rainfall. In next step, in order to normalize significant potential error included in hydrological data, especially in vast catchment area, Snyder's correlation method was applied. A key to solution in this study is multiple correlation method or multiple regressional analysis, which is primarily based on the method of least squres and which is solved by the form of systems of linear equations. And for verification of the change of characteristics of unit hydrograph according to the variation of a various kind of hydrological charateristics (for example, precipitation, tree cover, soil condition, etc),seasonal unit hydrograph models of dry season(autumn, winter), semi-dry season (spring), rainy season (summer) were made respectively. The results obtained in this study were summarized as follows; 1.During the test period of 1966-1971, effective rainfall was estimated for the total 114 run-off hydrograph. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation to the ovservation value was 6%, -which is mush smaller than 12% of the error of conventional method. 2.During the test period, daily distribution of long-term run-off discharge was estimated by the unit hydrograph model. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation by the application of standard unit hydrograph model was 12%. When estimating by each seasonal unit bydrograph model, the relative error was 14% during dry season 10% during semi-dry season and 7% during rainy season, which is much smaller than 37% of conventional method. Summing up the analysis results obtained above, it is convinced that qb-index method of this study for the estimation of effective rainfall be preciser than any other method developed before. Because even recently no method has been developed for the estimation of daily distribution of long-term run-off dicharge, therefore estimation value by unit hydrograph model was only compared with that due to kaziyama method which estimates monthly run-off discharge. However this method due to this study turns out to have high accuracy. If specially mentioned from the results of this study, there is no need to use each seasonal unit hydrograph model separately except the case of semi-dry season. The author hopes to analyze the latter case in future sudies.

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A Study on the Design Method and the Effect Analysis for the Introduction of the Integrated System Model of Individual Urban Utility Plants (에너지공급시설 및 환경기초시설의 복합화 방안 및 적용효과 분석)

  • Lee, Tae-Won;Kim, Yong-Ki
    • Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.235-240
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    • 2005
  • Recently urban utility plants in urban areas of Korea, such as energy supply systems, municipal waste incineration systems, sewage treatment systems and so on, have caused some critical troubles, for instance the insensitive response to the seasonal or daily variation of loads, the low system efficiency and inefficient use of energy because of the large-scale system located a great distance. Therefor the design method of optimal integrated system model of various urban utility plants proposed in this study suitably to the present situation of Korea. Also, the effect analysis for the introduction of compound utility plants was studied for a new town model on a 60,000 persons scale. As the results we found that the complex plant was superior to individual urban utility plant in side of the initial investment expenses, the operating cost and other reasons.

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A study on the Modulated Scroll Compressor by Bypass Method (바이패스방식을 이용한 용량가변 스크롤 압축기에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Cheol-Hwan;Shin, Dong-Koo;Park, Hong-Hee
    • 유체기계공업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.12a
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    • pp.693-696
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    • 2003
  • Hermetic Compressor circulates refrigerant with constant flow rate regardless of operation condition. so, at the operating condition requiring low cooling capacity, too much refrigerant flow deteriorates seasonal energy efficiency ratio(SEER). In this reason, modulated compressor is needed to improve SEER. Among many types of modulated compressor, non-inverter type modulated compressor is required for its low cost and easy to development. In the modulated scroll compressor by bypass method, EER steeply decreases for many loss like re-compression, changes of volume ratio, decrease of motor efficiency by torque variation. So. the range of modulation ratio for optimized SEER must be selected accompany with air conditioner set development.

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Generating global warming scenarios with probability weighted resampling and its implication in precipitation with nonparametric weather generator

  • Lee, Taesam;Park, Taewoong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.226-226
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    • 2015
  • The complex climate system regarding human actions is well represented through global climate models (GCMs). The output from GCMs provides useful information about the rate and magnitude of future climate change. Especially, the temperature variable is most reliable among other GCM outputs. However, hydrological variables (e.g. precipitation) from GCM outputs for future climate change contain too high uncertainty to use in practice. Therefore, we propose a method that simulates temperature variable with increasing in a certain level (e.g. 0.5oC or 1.0oC increase) as a global warming scenario from observed data. In addition, a hydrometeorological variable can be simulated employing block-wise sampling technique associated with the temperature simulation. The proposed method was tested for assessing the future change of the seasonal precipitation in South Korea under global warming scenario. The results illustrate that the proposed method is a good alternative to levy the variation of hydrological variables under global warming condition.

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An Analysis of Ecosystem Service's trade-off through Systems Thinking (시스템 사고를 통한 생태계서비스의 trade-off 관계 고찰)

  • Ham, Eun Kyung;Kim, Min;Chon, Jinhyung
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.75-100
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze causation of Ecosystem service's trade-off(ES trade-off) and to establish baseline data for wise spatial planning and management. In order to understand why and how ES trade-off occurs, systems thinking and causal loops were employed. The causal loop of ecosystem service creation cycle includes profits quantification process, decision making process, spatial planning and management process, and ecosystem services creation process. The profits quantification process has a limitation that all ecosystem service categories were not included in profits quantification, because quantification method for cultural services is insufficient. These problems led to unequal discussion opportunity in decision making process. ES trade-off occurs through transition of ecosystem function in spatial scale and temporal scale. In spatial scale, land-use variation and resource-use variation contribute to change an ecosystem function for different ES category by spatial planning and management. In temporal scale, a change of an ecosystem function for different ES category is influenced by ecological succession, seasonal change and land cover variation, which are parameter from environmental features. This study presented that spatial planning and management should ecosystem service assessment in order to enhance balanced ecosystem services.

A Study on the Marine Algae in the Kwang Yang Bay 1. the Seasonal Variation of Algal Community (광양만의 해조류에 관한 연구 1. 해조군집의 계절적 변화)

  • 이인규
    • Journal of Plant Biology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.109-121
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    • 1975
  • The seasonal variations of the marine algal community were detected with quadrat method during May, 1974-May, 1975 at several stations in the Kwang Yang Bay. Considering the environmental factors such as salinity and water current, etc., and algal vegetation, the Bay was divided into 3 sections; Section I-Myodo and the adjacent area; Section II-Eomnamuseom and the adjacent area; Section III-inlet of the Bay from Odongdo, Yeosu. The dominant species, shown by 5-grades coverage and bimonthly investigations, appear in the order of Sargassum thunbergii(Jan.)>Chondria crassicaulis (Mar.)>Ulva pertusa(May)>U. pertusa (July)>U. pertusa and Gigartina intermedia(Sept.)> Sarg. thunbergii and Gelidium pusillum (Nov.) in Section I, and Sargassum thunbergii(Jan.)>Ulva pertusa and Hizikia fusiforme (Mar.)>U. pertusa and Sarg. thunbergii(May)>Chondria crassicaulis (Sept.)>Ch. crassicaulis (Nov.) in Section II. The members such as Srgassum thunbergii, Gelidium pusillum, G. divaricatum, Hizikia fusiforme, Carpopeltis affinis, and Chondria crassicaulis show the most luxuriant period of growth in winter (Nov.-Mar.), while Ulva pertusa shows the period in May. However, considering the dry weight of total vegetation, the most luxuriant period apperas in May and the poorest one in July. The total dry weight of the vegetation in Section II is about 3.2 times more than the one in Section I.

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