• 제목/요약/키워드: seasonal variability

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간헐(間歇) 수문과정(水文過程)의 모의발생(模擬發生) 모형(模型)(II) - Markov 연쇄와 연속확률분포(連續確率分布) - (A Simulation Model for the Intermittent Hydrologic Process (II) - Markov Chain and Continuous Probability Distribution -)

  • 이재준;이정식
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.523-534
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    • 1994
  • 본 연구의 목적은 간헐수문과정인 일강수계열의 모의발생 모델을 개발하는 것이다. 이를 위하여 연구(I)에서는 교대재생과정을 이용하여 강수발생과정을 해석하였으며, 본 연구(II)에서는 강수발생과정으로 Markov 연쇄를 이용하고 습윤일의 강수량 분포를 조합하여 일 강수계열을 모의발생하는 추계학적 모델을 개발하였다. Markov 연쇄로는 상태 2(건조, 습윤)의 1차 연쇄를 사용하였으며, 습윤일의 강수량 분포는 연속확률분포인 Gamma, Pearson Type-III(PT3), Extremal Type-III(T3E), Weibull 분포를 적용하였다. 일 강수계열 자료의 계절적 변동성을 고려하여 월별로 분리하여 해석하였으며, 강수발생과정과 습윤일의 강수량과정을 조합하여 구성한 두 개의 모의발생 모델 M-W, M-G 모델을 낙동강과 섬진강 유역의 7개 관측소에 적용하여 관측치와 모의발생치를 비교하므로써 모의발생 모델의 적용성을 확인하였다.

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조선조 궁중발기(發發)를 통한 궁중음식에 관한 연구 - 상식을 중심으로 - (A Study on Royal Cuisine Reported in Sangsikbalgi in Joseon Dynasty)

  • 박은혜;김명희
    • 한국식생활문화학회지
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.382-393
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    • 2018
  • This study investigated Balgis (the record of the court)in the Joseon Dynasty pertaining to table settings for Sangsik (the meals for the dead). Sangsik are the records of daily meals for kings and key figures. In this study,14 pieces of Sangsikbalgi from 1890 to 1920, including two pieces from an unspecified period, were investigated to determine the composition and types of daily meals in the court. Meals consisted of a minimum of 10 dishes to a maximum 21 dishes, which basically included rice and soup. 'Jochi' was the term to refer to jjigae (stew) in the court. In Sangsikbalgi Bokgi, Gamjang, Jochi, Jjim, Suk, and Cho were all considered Jochi, which were recorded before Jeok or Jeon, where the side dishes were listed after rice and soup. This corresponded with the record of the royal tables in Wonhaeng-Ulmyo-Jeongri-Uigwe (圓行乙卯整理儀軌), in which Jochi included Jabjangjeon, Bokgi, Jabjang, and Cho. Whitebait and fruit, which are used as ingredients for Tang (soup) and Jeon, showed seasonal characteristics however, no other observed dishes showed seasonal variability. Additionally, beef and internal organs of animals were frequently used,regardless of seasons. When dishes in Sangsik were classified into basic dishes and additional cheop dishes (side dishes) based on Siuijeonseo (are recipe book of unknown authorship written in the late Joseon Dynasty), from five to nine Cheop dishes were set on the table, with seven being most common. Further comprehensive study needs to be conducted through undisclosed documents and private collections. Moreover, additional study of Judarye (anestral rites during the day for the royal) and cooking methods that were not investigated in detail in this study are needed.

다양한 기저유출 분리 방법을 이용한 4대강 수계의 시간대별 (연·계절·월) 기저유출 기여도 분석 (Analysis of Baseflow Contribution based on Time-scales Using Various Baseflow Separation Methods)

  • 이승찬;김희연;김효정;한정호;김성준;김종건;임경재
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제59권2호
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2017
  • The analysis of baseflow contribution is very significant in Korea because most rivers have high variability of streamflow due to the monsoon climate. Recently, the importance of such analysis is being more evident especially in terms of river management because of the changing pattern of rainfall and runoff resulted from climate change. Various baseflow separation methods have been developed to separate baseflow from streamflow. However, it is very difficult to identify which method is the most accurate way due to the lack of measured baseflow data. Moreover, it is inappropriate to analyze the annual baseflow contribution for Korean rivers because rainfall patterns varies significantly with the seasons. Thus, this study compared the baseflow contributions at various time-scales (annual, seasonal and monthly) for the 4 major river basins through BFI (baseflow index) and suggested baseflow contribution of each basin by the BFI ranges searched from different baseflow separation methods (e.g., BFLOW, HYSEP, PART, WHAT). Based on the comparison of baseflow contributions at the three time scales, this study showed that the baseflow contributions from the monthly and seasonal analysis are more reasonable than that from the annual analysis. Furthermore, this study proposes that defining BFI with its range is more proper than a specific value for a watershed, considering the difference of BFIs between various baseflow separation methods.

한국 남해안 한려해상국립공원의 계절별 해조상 및 군집구조 변화 (Seasonal Variations in the Macroalgal Flora and Community Structure in Hallyeohaesang National Park on the South Coast of Korea)

  • 오지철;안중관;김철도;정장방;최한길
    • 한국수산과학회지
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    • 제48권5호
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    • pp.768-775
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    • 2015
  • Seasonal variability in the marine seaweed community structure was examined in the intertidal zones at nine study sites in Hallyeohaesang National Park, on the southern coast of Korea from March to October 2014. A total of 145 seaweeds were indentified, comprising 15 green, 41 brown and 89 red algae. Coarsely branched seaweeds were the dominant functional group, comprising 58.95% in species number, whereas filamentous, sheet, thick leathery, crustose and jointed calcareous forms comprised 2.63-17.72% each. The seaweed biomass averaged 358.00 g dry wt/m2 and it was maximal at Somaemuldo (847.64 g dry wt/m2) and minimal at Gamam (56.51 g dry wt/m2). Based on biomass, the dominant and subdominant seaweeds were Ulva australis at Gamam, Sargassum thunbergii at Sangju, Ulva australis and S.fulvellum at Neukdo, S.horneri at Dala-Bijindo-Somaemuldo, S. thunbergii at Dapo, and Corallina pilulifera at Songdo. Community indices were as follows: dominance index (DI), 0.43-0.71; richness index (R), 8.26-16.50; evenness index (J'), 0.36-0.54; and diversity index (H'), 1.57-2.19. In conclusion, we found that both biomass and the community structure of seaweeds in Hallyeohaesang National Park were similar to those in other studies of the Southern Sea along the Korean peninsula, and that Hallyeohaesang National Park is a relatively favorable habitat for seaweeds. Future studies should examine the changes in seaweed composition and biomass as they relate to climate change and environmental pollution.

동아시아 기온과 강수의 불확실성 평가 (An Uncertainty Assessment of Temperature and Precipitation over East Asia)

  • 신진호;김민지;이효신;권원태
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.299-303
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    • 2008
  • In this study, an uncertainty assessment for surface air temperature(T2m) and precipitation(PCP) over East Asia is carried out. The data simulated by the intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Atmosphere-Ocean coupled general circulation Model (AOGCM) are used to assess the uncertainty. Examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP variabilities shows that spring-summer cold bias and fall warm bias of T2m are found over both East Asia and the Korea peninsula. In contrast, distinctly summer dry bias and winter-spring wet bias of PCP over the Korea peninsula is found. To investigate the PCP seasonal variability over East Asia, the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function(CSEOF) analysis is employed. The CSEOF analysis can extract physical modes (spatio-temporal patterns) and their undulation (PC time series) of PCP, showing the evolution of PCP. A comparison between spatio-temporal patterns of observed and modeled PCP anomalies shows that positive PCP anomalies located in northeastern China (north of Korea) of the multi-model ensemble(MME) cannot explain properly the contribution to summer monsoon rainfalls across Korea and Japan. The uncertainty of modeled PCP indicates that there is disagreement between observed and MME anomalies. The spatio-temporal deviation of the PCP is significantly associated with lower- and upper-level circulations. In particular, lower-level moisture transports from the warm pool of the western Pacific and corresponding moisture convergence significantly contribute to summer rainfalls. These lower- and upper-level circulations physically consistent with PCP give a insight of the reason why differences between modeled and observed PCP occur.

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계절적 몬순에 의한 댐 인공호 및 농업용 저수지에서의 영양상태지수(TSI), 경험적 수질 모델 및 어류 트로픽 구조 (Influence of Seasonal Monsoon on Trophic State Index (TSI), Empirical Water Quality Model, and Fish Trophic Structures in Dam and Agricultural Reservoirs)

  • 윤영진;한정호;안광국
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제23권7호
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    • pp.1321-1332
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    • 2014
  • The key objective of this study was to evaluate trophic state and empirical water quality models along with analysis of fish trophic guilds in relation to water chemistry (N, P). Trophic state index (TSI), based on total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll-a (CHL), ranged between oligotrophic and hypereutrophic state, by the criteria of Nurnberg(1996), and was lower than the trophic state of total nitrogen (TN). Trophic relations of Secchi depth (SD), TN, TP, and CHL were compared using an empirical models of premonsoon (Pr), monsoon (Mo), and postmonsoon (Po). The model analysis indicated that the variation in water transparency of Secchi depth (SD) was largely accounted (p < 0.001, range of $R^2$ : 0.76-0.80) by TP during the seasons of Mo and Po and that the variation of CHL was accounted (p < 0.001, $R^2=0.70$) up to 70% by TP during the Po season. The eutrophication tendency, based on the $TSI_{TP}$ vs. $TSI_{N:P}$ were predictable ($R^2$ ranged 0.85-0.90, p < 0.001), slope and y intercept indicated low seasonal variability. In the mean time, $TSI_{N:P}$ vs. $TSI_{CHL}$ had a monsoon seasonality in relation to values of $TSI_{N:P}$ during the monsoon season due to a dilution of reservoir waters by strong monsoon rainfall. Trophic compositions of reservoir fish reflected ambient contents of TN, TP, and CHL in the reservoir waters. Thus, the proportions of omnivore fish increased with greater trophic conditions of TP, TN and CHL and the proportions of insectivore fish decreased with greater trophic conditions.

Subsequent application of self-organizing map and hidden Markov models infer community states of stream benthic macroinvertebrates

  • Kim, Dong-Hwan;Nguyen, Tuyen Van;Heo, Muyoung;Chon, Tae-Soo
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • 제38권1호
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2015
  • Because an ecological community consists of diverse species that vary nonlinearly with environmental variability, its dynamics are complex and difficult to analyze. To investigate temporal variations of benthic macroinvertebrate community, we used the community data that were collected at the sampling site in Baenae Stream near Busan, Korea, which is a clean stream with minimum pollution, from July 2006 to July 2013. First, we used a self-organizing map (SOM) to heuristically derive the states that characterizes the biotic condition of the benthic macroinvertebrate communities in forms of time series data. Next, we applied the hidden Markov model (HMM) to fine-tune the states objectively and to obtain the transition probabilities between the states and the emission probabilities that show the connection of the states with observable events such as the number of species, the diversity measured by Shannon entropy, and the biological water quality index (BMWP). While the number of species apparently addressed the state of the community, the diversity reflected the state changes after the HMM training along with seasonal variations in cyclic manners. The BMWP showed clear characterization of events that correspond to the different states based on the emission probabilities. The environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation also indicated the seasonal and cyclic changes according to the HMM. Though the usage of the HMM alone can guarantee the convergence of the training or the precision of the derived states based on field data in this study, the derivation of the states by the SOM that followed the fine-tuning by the HMM well elucidated the states of the community and could serve as an alternative reference system to reveal the ecological structures in stream communities.

남해와 동중국해에서 위성으로 추정된 표층수온 및 클로로필의 장기 변화 (Climatological Variability of Satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll in the South Sea of Korea and East China Sea)

  • 손영백;유주형;노재훈;주세종;김상현
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.201-218
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate climatological variations from the sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), and phytoplankton size class (PSC), using NOAA AVHRR, SeaWiFS, and MODIS data in the South Sea of Korea (SSK) and East China Sea (ECS). 26-year monthly SST and 13-year monthly Chl-a and PSC data, separated by whole and nine-different areas, were used to understand seasonal and inter-annual variations. SST and Chl-a clearly showed seasonal variations: higher SST and Chl-a were observed during the summer and spring, and lower values occurred during the winter and summer. The annual and monthly SST over 26 years increased by $0.2{\sim}1.0^{\circ}C$. The annual and monthly Chl-a concentration over 13 years decreased by $0.2{\sim}1.1mg/m^3$. To determine more detailed spatial and temporal variations, we used the combined data with monthly SST, Chl-a, and PSC. Between 1998 and 2010, the inter-annual trend of Chl-a decreased, with decreasing micro- and nano-size plankton, and increasing pico-size plankton. In regional analysis, the west region of the study area was spatially and temporally correlated with the area dominated by decreasing micro-size plankton; while the east region was less sensitive to coastal and land effects, and was dominated by increasing pico-size plankton. This phenomenon is better related to one or more forcing factors: the increased stratification of ocean driven by changes occurring in spatial variations of the SST caused limited contributions of nutrients and changed marine ecosystems in the study area.

고해상도 기후예측시스템의 표층해류 예측성능 평가 (Assessment of Ocean Surface Current Forecasts from High Resolution Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5)

  • 이효미;장필훈;강기룡;강현석;김윤재
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제40권3호
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    • pp.99-114
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    • 2018
  • In the present study, we assess the GloSea5 (Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5) near-surface ocean current forecasts using globally observed surface drifter dataset. Annual mean surface current fields at 0-day forecast lead time are quite consistent with drifter-derived velocity fields, and low values of root mean square (RMS) errors distributes in global oceans, except for regions of high variability, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Kuroshio, and Gulf Stream. Moreover a comparison with the global high-resolution forecasting system, HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model), signifies that GloSea5 performs well in terms of short-range surface-current forecasts. Predictions from 0-day to 4-week lead time are also validated for the global ocean and regions covering the main ocean basins. In general, the Indian Ocean and tropical regions yield relatively high RMS errors against all forecast lead times, whilst the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans show low values. RMS errors against forecast lead time ranging from 0-day to 4-week reveal the largest increase rate between 0-day and 1-week lead time in all regions. Correlation against forecast lead time also reveals similar results. In addition, a strong westward bias of about $0.2m\;s^{-1}$ is found along the Equator in the western Pacific on the initial forecast day, and it extends toward the Equator of the eastern Pacific as the lead time increases.

기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea5)의 여름철 동아시아 몬순 지수 예측 성능 평가 (Prediction Skill for East Asian Summer Monsoon Indices in a KMA Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5))

  • 이소정;현유경;이상민;황승언;이조한;부경온
    • 대기
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.293-309
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    • 2020
  • There are lots of indices that define the intensity of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in climate systems. This paper assesses the prediction skill for EASM indices in a Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) that is currently operating at KMA. Total 5 different types of EASM indices (WNPMI, EAMI, WYI, GUOI, and SAHI) are selected to investigate how well GloSea5 reproduces them using hindcasts with 12 ensemble members with 1~3 lead months. Each index from GloSea5 is compared to that from ERA-Interim. Hindcast results for the period 1991~2010 show the highest prediction skill for WNPMI which is defined as the difference between the zonal winds at 850 hPa over East China Sea and South China Sea. WYI, defined as the difference between the zonal winds of upper and lower level over the Indian Ocean far from East Asia, is comparatively well captured by GloSea5. Though the prediction skill for EAMI which is defined by using meridional winds over areas of East Asia and Korea directly affected by EASM is comparatively low, it seems that EAMI is useful for predicting the variability of precipitation by EASM over East Asia. The regressed atmospheric fields with EASM index and the correlation with precipitation also show that GloSea5 best predicts the synoptic environment of East Asia for WNPMI among 5 EASM indices. Note that the result in this study is limited to interpret only for GloSea5 since the prediction skill for EASM index depends greatly on climate forecast model systems.