• 제목/요약/키워드: seasonal time series

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Formation and Evolution of Turbidity Maximum in thd Keum Estuary, West Coast of Korea (금강 하구에서의 최대혼탁수 형성 및 변화에 대한 연구)

  • 이창복;김태인
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 1987
  • A series of anchor stations were occupied along the Keum EAstuary during six different periods of tidal and fluvial regimes. The results clearly show that the formation and evolution of the turbidity maximum play an important role in the sedimentary processes in this environment. The turbidity maximum in the Keum Estuary is primarily related to the tidal range at the mouth and is caused by the resuspension of bottom sediments. In this estuary, the turbidity maximum is not a permanent feature and shows semidiurnal, fortnightly and seasonal variations. Repetition of deposition and resuspension of fine sediments occur in response to the variation in current velocity associated with semidiurnal tidal cycles. The core of turbidity maximum shifts landward or seaward accordion to the flood-ebb succession. The turbidity maximum also shows a fortnightly variation in response to the spring-neap cycles. Thus, the turbidity maximum degenerates during neap-tide and regenerates during spring-tide. The freshwater discharge is also an important factor in the formation and destruction of the turbidity maximum. The increase in freshwater discharge in rainy season can create an ebb-dominant current pattern which enhances the seaward transport of suspended sediments, resulting in the shortening of residence time of suspended materials in the estuary. Thus, under this high discharge condition, the turbidity maximum exists only during spring-tide and starts to disappear as the tidal amplitude decreases.

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Temporal and Spatial Variability of Nutrients Variation in Bottom Layer of Jinhae Bay (진해만과 주변해역 저층 영양염의 시·공간적 변동 특성)

  • Choi, Tae-Jun;Kwon, Jung-No;Lim, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Seul-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.627-639
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    • 2014
  • In respect of the nutrients cycling in coastal environment, regeneration in bottom layer is one of major source of nutrients. We analyzed the bottom water quality at the 14 stations during 9 years from 2004 to 2012 to investigate the characteristics of nutrients at bottom layer in Jinhae Bay. Concentrations of DIN, DIP and DSi showed the large seasonal variation and were higher in summer. Especially, average concentrations of these nutrients were two times higher in hypoxic season than in normoxic season. In summer, high concentrations of DIN, DIP and DSi caused by regeneration were common feature, but spatial distribution of DSi differ from that of DIN and DIP. DIN and DIP were higher in Masan Bay, while DSi was higher in Masan Bay as well as in center of Jinhae Bay. In comparison with DIN and DIP, DSi was significantly affected by nutrients regeneration at bottom layer in whole season. According to time series analysis, DIN concentration was decreased from approximately $14{\mu}M$ to $6{\mu}M$. This result induce that Si:N ratio at bottom layer in Jinhae Bay changed from approximately 1 to 3.

The Characteristics of Submarine Groundwater Discharge in the Coastal Area of Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 유역의 연안 해저지하수 유출특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Daesun;Jung, Hahn Chul
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_1
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    • pp.1589-1597
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    • 2021
  • Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in coastal areas is gaining importance as a major transport route that bring nutrients and trace metals into the ocean. This paper describes the analysis of the seasonal changes and spatiotemporal characteristicsthrough the modeling monthly SGD for 35 years from 1986 to 2020 for the Nakdong river basin. In this study, we extracted 210 watersheds and SGD estimation points using the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEM (Digital Elevation Model). The average annual SGD of the Nakdong River basin was estimated to be 466.7 m2/yr from the FLDAS (Famine Early Warning Systems Network Land Data Assimilation System) recharge data of 10 km which is the highest resolution global model applicable to Korea. There was no significant time-series variation of SGD in the Nakdong river basin, but the concentrated period of SGD was expanded from summer to autumn. In addition, it was confirmed that there is a large amount of SGD regardless of the season in coastal area nearby large rivers, and the trend has slightly increased since the 1980s. The characteristics are considered to be related to the change in the major precipitation period in the study area, and spatially it is due to the high baseflow-groundwater in the vicinity of large rivers. This study is a precedentstudy that presents a modeling technique to explore the characteristics of SGD in Korea, and is expected to be useful as foundational information for coastal management and evaluating the impact of SGD to the ocean.

RNCC-based Fine Co-registration of Multi-temporal RapidEye Satellite Imagery (RNCC 기반 다시기 RapidEye 위성영상의 정밀 상호좌표등록)

  • Han, Youkyung;Oh, Jae Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.581-588
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    • 2018
  • The aim of this study is to propose a fine co-registration approach for multi-temporal satellite images acquired from RapidEye, which has an advantage of availability for time-series analysis. To this end, we generate multitemporal ortho-rectified images using RPCs (Rational Polynomial Coefficients) provided with RapidEye images and then perform fine co-registration between the ortho-rectified images. A DEM (Digital Elevation Model) extracted from the digital map was used to generate the ortho-rectified images, and the RNCC (Registration Noise Cross Correlation) was applied to conduct the fine co-registration. Experiments were carried out using 4 RapidEye 1B images obtained from May 2015 to November 2016 over the Yeonggwang area. All 5 bands (blue, green, red, red edge, and near-infrared) that RapidEye provided were used to carry out the fine co-registration to show their possibility of being applicable for the co-registration. Experimental results showed that all the bands of RapidEye images could be co-registered with each other and the geometric alignment between images was qualitatively/quantitatively improved. Especially, it was confirmed that stable registration results were obtained by using the red and red edge bands, irrespective of the seasonal differences in the image acquisition.

Estimation of Shared Bicycle Demand Using the SARIMAX Model: Focusing on the COVID-19 Impact of Seoul (SARIMAX 모형을 이용한 공공자전거 수요추정과 평가: 서울시의 COVID-19 영향을 중심으로)

  • Hong, Jungyeol;Han, Eunryong;Choi, Changho;Lee, Minseo;Park, Dongjoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzed how external variables, such as the supply policy of shared bicycles and the spread of infectious diseases, affect the demand for shared bicycle use in the COVID-19 era. In addition, this paper presents a methodology for more accurate predictions. The Seasonal Auto-Regulatory Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous stressors methodology was applied to capture the effects of exogenous variables on existing time series models. The exogenous variables that affected the future demand for shared bicycles, such as COVID-19 and the supply of public bicycles, were statistically significant. As a result, from the supply volume and COVID-19 outbreak according to the scenario, it was estimated that approximately 46,000 shared bicycles would be supplied by 2022, and the COVID-19 cases would continue to be at the current level. In addition, approximately 32 million and 45 million units per year will be needed in 2021 and 2024, respectively.

Characteristics of Groundwater Levels Fluctuation and Quality in Ddan-sum Area (낙동강 하중도 딴섬의 지하수위 변동 및 수질 특성)

  • Kim, Gyoobum;Choi, Doohoung;Shin, Seonho
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2011
  • Confined aquifer, which is separated with upper clayey or silty materials, is partially distributed at the depths of the sediments in Ddan-sum area on the lower Nakdong river. Measurements of groundwater levels at 13 sites explain that groundwater flow shows seasonally various due to seasonal rainfall and agricultural water use. From 9 long-term monitoring data of groundwater levels at 7 sites, 3 types of groundwater levels time series can be classified using principal component analysis. The first type is seen in the center of Ddan-sum and has a round-shape graph due to a weak response to stream water levels. The second type exists in the outer part of Ddan-sum and shows sharply peak-shape graph due to a rapid and strong response to stream water levels and rainfall. The last type, which is seen in a deep layer, has a periodicity by tital effect. From geochemical analysis at each monitoring sites, [$Ca-HCO_3$] type happens in the center of Ddan-sum far from Nakdong river, and [$Na-HCO_3$] and [$Ca-SO_4(Cl)$] types exist in the outer of Ddan-sum affected by river quality.

Analysis for Precipitation Trend and Elasticity of Precipitation-Streamflow According to Climate Changes (기후변화에 따른 강우 경향성 및 유출과의 탄성도 분석)

  • Shon, Tae Seok;Shin, Hyun Suk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5B
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    • pp.497-507
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    • 2010
  • Climate changes affect greatly natural ecosystem, human social and economic system acting on constituting the climate system such as air, ocean, life, glacier and land, etc. and estimating the current impact of climate change would be the most important thing to adapt to the climate changes. This study set the target area to Nakdong river watershed and investigated the impact of climate changes through analyzing precipitation tendency, and to understand the impact of climate changes on hydrological elements, analyzed elasticity of precipitation-streamflow. For the analysis of precipitation trend, collecting the precipitation data of the National Weather Service from major points of Nakdong river watershed, resampling them at the units of year, season and month, used as the data of precipitation trend analysis. To analyze precipitation-streamflow elasticity, collecting area average precipitation and long-term streamflow data provided by WAMIS, annual and seasonal time-series were analyzed. In addition, The results of this study and elasticity, and other abroad study compared with the elasticity analysis and the validity of this study was verified. Results of this study will be able to be utilized for study on a plan to increase of flood control ability of flooding constructs caused by the increase of streamflow around Nakdong river watershed due to climate changes and on a plan of adapting to water environment according to climate changes.

Comparing Monthly Precipitation Predictions Using Time Series Analysis with Deep Learning Models (시계열 분석 및 딥러닝 모형을 활용한 월 강수량 예측 비교)

  • Chung, Yeon-Ji;Kim, Min-Ki;Um, Myoung-Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.443-463
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    • 2024
  • This study sought to improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction by utilizing monthly precipitation data for each region over the past 30 years. Using statistical models (ARIMA, SARIMA) and deep learning models (LSTM, GBM), we learned monthly precipitation data from 1983 to 2012 in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Jeju, and Chuncheon. Based on this, monthly precipitation was predicted for 10 years from 2013 to 2022. As a result of the prediction, most models accurately predicted the precipitation trend, but showed a tendency to underpredict the actual precipitation. To solve these problems, appropriate models were selected for each region and season. The LSTM model showed suitable results in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Jeju, and Chuncheon. When comparing forecasting power by season, the SARIMA model showed particularly suitable forecasting performance in winter in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Seoul, and Chuncheon. Additionally, the LSTM model showed higher performance than other models in the summer when precipitation is concentrated. In conclusion, closely analyzing regional and seasonal precipitation patterns and selecting the optimal prediction model based on this plays a critical role in increasing the accuracy of precipitation prediction.

Bias Correction for GCM Long-term Prediction using Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (비정상성 분위사상법을 이용한 GCM 장기예측 편차보정)

  • Moon, Soojin;Kim, Jungjoong;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.833-842
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    • 2013
  • The quantile mapping is utilized to reproduce reliable GCM(Global Climate Model) data by correct systematic biases included in the original data set. This scheme, in general, projects the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the underlying data set into the target CDF assuming that parameters of target distribution function is stationary. Therefore, the application of stationary quantile mapping for nonstationary long-term time series data of future precipitation scenario computed by GCM can show biased projection. In this research the Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM) scheme was suggested for bias correction of nonstationary long-term time series data. The proposed scheme uses the statistical parameters with nonstationary long-term trends. The Gamma distribution was assumed for the object and target probability distribution. As the climate change scenario, the 20C3M(baseline scenario) and SRES A2 scenario (projection scenario) of CGCM3.1/T63 model from CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis) were utilized. The precipitation data were collected from 10 rain gauge stations in the Han-river basin. In order to consider seasonal characteristics, the study was performed separately for the flood (June~October) and nonflood (November~May) seasons. The periods for baseline and projection scenario were set as 1973~2000 and 2011~2100, respectively. This study evaluated the performance of NSQM by experimenting various ways of setting parameters of target distribution. The projection scenarios were shown for 3 different periods of FF scenario (Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040 yr), MF scenario (Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070 yr), LF scenario (Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100 yr). The trend test for the annual precipitation projection using NSQM shows 330.1 mm (25.2%), 564.5 mm (43.1%), and 634.3 mm (48.5%) increase for FF, MF, and LF scenarios, respectively. The application of stationary scheme shows overestimated projection for FF scenario and underestimated projection for LF scenario. This problem could be improved by applying nonstationary quantile mapping.

Analysis of long-term water level change of Dongrae hot spring using time series methods (시계열 방법을 이용한 동래온천 수위의 장기적인 변화 분석)

  • Jeon, Hang-Tak;Hamm, Se-Yeong;Cheong, Jae-Yeol;Lee, Cheol-Woo;Lee, Jong-Tae;Lim, Woo-Ri
    • Journal of the Geological Society of Korea
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.529-544
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    • 2018
  • Dongrae hot spring belongs to the residual magma type and has a long history of bathing since the Silla dynasty in Korea. Due to long development of hot spring water, it is expected that the amount of hot spring water in Dongrae hot spring has been changed. In this study, long-trem water level data of Dongrae hot spring were examined for recognizing the change of the hot spring. By the fluctuation analysis of the hot spring water level from January 1992 to July 2018, the maximum and minimum annual drawdowns of no. 27 well were 137.70 and 71.60 meters, respectively, with an average drawdown of 103.39 m. On the other hand, the maximum and minimum annual drawdowns of no. 29 well were 137.80 and 71.70 meters, with an average drawdown of 103.49 m. Besides, drawdown rate became bigger in recent years. As a result of analyzing autocorrelation of the two wells, the correlation coefficient ranged from 0.919 to 0.991, showing seasonal groundwater level fluctuation. The cross correlation analysis between water level and precipitation as well as water level and hot spring discharge resulted in the correlation coefficients of -0.280 ~ 0.256 and 0.428 ~ 0.553, respectively. Therefore, using Dongnae hot-spring water level data from 1992 to 2018, the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's test showed that the continuous decline of water level was mainly caused by the pumping of the hot spring water among various reasons.