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http://dx.doi.org/10.12815/kits.2021.20.1.10

Estimation of Shared Bicycle Demand Using the SARIMAX Model: Focusing on the COVID-19 Impact of Seoul  

Hong, Jungyeol (Dept. of Transportation Eng., Univ. of Seoul)
Han, Eunryong (Dept. of Transportation Eng., Univ. of Seoul)
Choi, Changho (Division of Logistics and International Trade, Chonnam National Univ.)
Lee, Minseo (Division of Bicycle Policy, Seoul Metropolitan Government)
Park, Dongjoo (Dept. of Transportation Eng., Univ. of Seoul)
Publication Information
The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems / v.20, no.1, 2021 , pp. 10-21 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study analyzed how external variables, such as the supply policy of shared bicycles and the spread of infectious diseases, affect the demand for shared bicycle use in the COVID-19 era. In addition, this paper presents a methodology for more accurate predictions. The Seasonal Auto-Regulatory Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous stressors methodology was applied to capture the effects of exogenous variables on existing time series models. The exogenous variables that affected the future demand for shared bicycles, such as COVID-19 and the supply of public bicycles, were statistically significant. As a result, from the supply volume and COVID-19 outbreak according to the scenario, it was estimated that approximately 46,000 shared bicycles would be supplied by 2022, and the COVID-19 cases would continue to be at the current level. In addition, approximately 32 million and 45 million units per year will be needed in 2021 and 2024, respectively.
Keywords
Shared bicycle; COVID-19; Exogenous variables; Demand estimation; SARIMAX;
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