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In-depth Review of IPCC 5th Assessment Report (IPCC 제5차 과학평가보고서 고찰)

  • Park, Il-Soo;Woon, Yu;Chung, Kyung-Won;Lee, Gangwoong;Owen, Jeffrey S.;Kwon, Won-Tae;Yun, Won-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.188-200
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    • 2014
  • The IPCC 5th Assessment Report (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis) was accepted at the 36th Session of the IPCC on 26 September 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden. It consists of the full scientific and technical assessment undertaken by Working Group I. This comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change puts a focus on those elements that are relevant to understand past, document current, and project future of climate change. The assessment builds on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and the recent Special Report on Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. The assessment covers the current knowledge of various processes within, and interactions among, climate system components, which determine the sensitivity and response of the system to changes in forcing, and they quantify the link between the changes in atmospheric constituents, and hence radiative forcing, and the consequent detection and attribution of climate change. Projections of changes in all climate system components are based on model simulations forced by a new set of scenarios. The report also provides a comprehensive assessment of past and future sea level change in a dedicated chapter. The primary purpose of this Technical Summary is to provide the link between the complete assessment of the multiple lines of independent evidence presented in the main report and the highly condensed summary prepared as Policy makers Summary. The Technical Summary thus serves as a starting point for those readers who seek the full information on more specific topics covered by this assessment. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of $CO_2$ since 1750. Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. The in-depth review for past, present and future of climate change is carried out on the basis of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.

Arctic Climate Change for the Last Glacial Maximum Derived from PMIP2 Coupled Model Results (제2차 고기후 모델링 비교 프로그램 시뮬레이션 자료를 이용한 마지막 최대빙하기의 북극 기후변화 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Joong;Woo, Eun-Jin
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.31-50
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    • 2010
  • The Arctic climate change for the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) occurred at 21,000 years ago (21ka) was investigated using simulation results of atmosphere-ocean coupled models from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Program(PMIP2). In the analysis, we used seven models, the NCAR CCSM of USA, ECHAM3-MPIOM of German Max-Planxk Institute, HadCM3M2 of UK Met Office, IPSL-CM4 of France Laplace Institute, CNRM-CM3 of France Meteorological Institute, MIROC3.2 of Japan CCSR at University of Tokyo, and FGOALS of China Institute of Atmospheric Physics. All the seven models reproduces the Arctic climate features found in the present climate at 0ka(pre-industrial time) in a reasonable degree in comparison to observations. During the LGM, the atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and other greenhouse gases were reduced, the ice sheets were expanded over North America and northern Europe, the sea level was lowered by about 120m, and orbital parameters were slightly different. These boundary conditions were implemented to simulated LGM climate. With the implemented LGM conditions, the biggest temperature reduction by more than $24^{\circ}C$ is found over North America and northern Europe owing to ice albedo feedback and the change in lapse rate by high elevation. Besides, the expansion of ice sheets leads to the marked temperature reduction by more then $10^{\circ}C$ over the Arctic Ocean. The temperature reduction in northern winter is larger than in summer around the Arctic and the annual mean temperature is reduced by about $14^{\circ}C$. Compared to low mid-latitudes, the temperature reduction is much larger in high northern altitudes in the LGM. This results mirror the larger warming around the Artic in recent century. We could draw some information for the future under global warming from the knowledge of the LGM.

Agro-Climatic Indices Changes over the Korean Peninsula in CO2 Doubled Climate Induced by Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice Coupled General Circulation Model (대기-해양-지면-해빙 접합 대순환 모형으로 모의된 이산화탄소 배증시 한반도 농업기후지수 변화 분석)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Hong, Ja-Young;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2010
  • According to IPCC 4th Assessment Report, concentration of carbon dioxide has been increasing by 30% since Industrial Revolution. Most of IPCC $CO_2$ emission scenarios estimate that the concentration will reach up to double of its present level within 100-year if the current tendency continues. The global warming has resulted in the agro-climate change over the Korean Peninsula as well. Accordingly, it is necessary to understand the future agro-climate induced by the increase of greenhouse gases in terms of the agro-climatic indices in the Korean peninsula. In this study, the future climate is simulated by an atmosphere/ocean/land surface/sea ice coupled general circulation climate model, Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model(hereafter, PNU CGCM), and by a regional weather prediction model, Weather Research and Forecasting Model(hereafter, WRF) for the purpose of a dynamical downscaling. The changes of the vegetable period and the crop growth period, defined as the total number of days of a year exceeding daily mean temperature of 5 and 10, respectively, have been analyzed. Our results estimate that the beginning date of vegetable and crop growth periods get earlier by 3.7 and 17 days, respectively, in spring under the $CO_2$-doubled climate. In most of the Korean peninsula, the predicted frost days in spring decrease by 10 days. Climatic production index (CPI), which closely represent the productivity of rice, tends to increase in the double $CO_2$ climate. Thus, it is suggested that the future $CO_2$ doubled climate might be favorable for crops due to the decrease of frost days in spring, and increased temperature and insolation during the heading date as we expect from the increased CPI.

Evaluation of Sejong Base as a Long Term Monitoring Site for Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM) Variation in the Antarctic Ocean (남극해 유색 용존 유기물질의 장기 변동성 모니터링을 위한 세종 기지의 활용 가능성 평가)

  • Jeon, Mi-Hae;Park, Mi-Ok;Kang, Sung-Ho;Jeon, Misa
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.898-905
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    • 2019
  • As the positive feedback between the absorption of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and acceleration of ice melt can impact the aquatic biota and dynamic heat budget, long-term monitoring of the CDOM variation in the polar ocean is necessary. However, the monitoring of CDOM is not easy because of harsh weather and difficult access, especially in the Antarctic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to find a suitable long-term monitoring site for CDOM variation; we selected Maxwell Bay and Marian Cove at Sejong Base and horizontal and vertical distributions of CDOM were measured. After a 72 hr time-series measurement test of the CDOM variation at Sejong Dock and Sejong Cape in Maxwell Bay, Sejong Dock was selected, as it does not haveland discharge effects. The seasonal variation of CDOM was evident and the average CDOM concentration of Maxwell Bay was comparable with the adjacent sea. The CDOM at Sejong Dock from February to November 2010 was the highest in the fall and winter and the lowest during spring and summer. Thus, based on our one-year CDOM data, we suggest that Sejong Dock in Maxwell Bay is suitable for long-term monitoring of CDOM as an indicator of photochemical and biological environmental change and an important factor in determining the heating budget in the Antarctic Ocean.

The Present Status and Development Plan in the Field of Climate Change Science in Korea analyzed by the IPCC-IV Reports (IPCC-IV 국가 보고서 분석에 의한 한국의 기후변화과학 분야의 현황과 발전방향)

  • Chung, Yun-Ang;Chung, Hyo-Sang;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.38-43
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    • 2011
  • The recent global warming may be estimated to give lots of impacts to the human society and biosphere of influencing climate change included by the natural climate variations through the human activity which can directly and/or indirectly play a major role of total atmospheric composition overall. Therefore it currently appears evidences such as hot wave, typhoon, and biosphere disturbance, etc. over the several regions to be influenced by global warming due to increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through inducing forest destruction, fossil fuel combustion, greenhouse gases emission, etc. since industrial revolution era. Through the working group report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for climate change was analyzed by the individual country's current status and figure out the important issues and problems related to the future trend of climate change science with advanced countries preparedness and research, In this study, the first working group report of IPCC focuses on those aspects of the current understanding of the physical science of climate change that are judged to be most relevant to policymakers. As this report was assessed and analyzed by including the progress of climate change science, the role of climate models and evolution in the treatment of uncertainties. This consists of the changes in atmospheric constituents(both aerosols and gases) that affect the radiative energy balance in the atmosphere and determine the Earth's climate, considering the interaction between biogeochemical cycles that affect atmospheric constituents and climate change, including aerosol/cloud interactions, the extensive range of observations snow available for the atmosphere and surface, for snow, ice, and frozen ground and for the oceans, respectively and changes in sea level, the paleoclimate perspective and assessment of evidence for past climate change and the extension, the ways in which physical processes are simulated in climate models and the evaluation of models against observed climate, the development plans and methods of improving expert and building manpower urgently and R&D fund expansion in detail for climate change science in Korea will be proposed.

Biogeochemistry of Methane in Water and Sediment: Methane Generation in Coastal Areas with Bottom Water Hypoxia (메탄의 생지화학적 거동과 한국 연안해역 저(빈)산소 층 발달에 따른 메탄 생성)

  • DONGJOO JOUNG
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.95-120
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    • 2023
  • Methane (CH4) is a key greenhouse gas in the atmosphere with 85 times greater greenhouse potent relative to carbon dioxide (CO2). The atmospheric concentration of CH4 is rapidly increasing due to the intensive usage of CH4 and the thawing of the cryosphere. Additionally, with the current warming of ocean water, the dissociation of gas hydrates, an ice-like compound and the largest reservoir of CH4 on Earth, is expected to occur, resulting in the release of CH4 from the seafloor into the overlying water and atmosphere. Moreover, bottom water hypoxia is another concern that potentially introduces greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. With ongoing global warming and eutrophication, the size and duration of bottom water hypoxia are rapidly increasing. These low-oxygen conditions would relocate the redox zone shallower in sediment or in the water column, causing the release of CH4 into the atmosphere and thereby intensifying global warming. However, there exists a gap in the understanding of CH4 dynamics including its generation in relation to bottom water hypoxia. Therefore, this review article aims to understand the relationship between CH4 and bottom water hypoxia and to draw attention to CH4 investigation in Korea.

Wind-and Rain-induced Variations of Water Column Structures and Dispersal Pattern of Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) in Marian Cove, the South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica during the Austral Summer 2000 (서남극 남 쉐틀랜드 군도 마리안 소만에서 바람 및 강수에 의한 여름철 수층 구조의 변화와 부유물질 분산)

  • 유규철;윤호일;오재경;강천윤;김예동;배성호
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.357-368
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    • 2003
  • Time-series CTDT (Conductivity/Temperature/Depth/Transmissivity) were obtained at one point near tidewater glacier of Marian Cove (King George Islands, Antarctica) to present water column properties and SPM (suspended particulate matter) dispersal pattern in relation with tide, current, meteorological data, and SPM concentration. Four layers were divided from the water column characteristics measured in the interval of an hour for about 2 days: 1) cold, fresh, and turbid surface mixed layer between 0-20 m in water depth, 2) warm, saline, and relatively clean Maxwell Bay inflow between 20-40 m in water depth, 3) turbid/cold tongue of subglacial discharges compared with the ambient waters between 40-70 m in water depth, and 4) cold, saline, and clean bottom water beneath 70 m in water depth. Surface plume, turbid freshwater at coastal/cliff area in late summer (early February), had the characteristic temperature and SPM concentration according to morphology, glacial condition, and composition of sediments. The restrict dispersion only over the input source of meltwater discharges was due to calm wether condition. Due to strong wind-induced surface turbulence, fresh and turbid surface plume, englacial upwelling cold water, glacier-contact meltwater, and Maxwell Bay inflow was mixing at ice-proximal zone and the consequent mixed layer deepened at the surface. Large amount of precipitation, the major controlling factor for increasing short-term glacial discharges, was accompanied by the apparent development of subglacial discharge that resulted in the rapid drop of salinity below the mid depth. Although amount of subglacial discharge and englacial upwelling may be large, however, their low SPM concentration would have small influence on bottom deposition of terrigenous sediments.

Changes in Meteorological Variables by SO2 Emissions over East Asia using a Linux-based U.K. Earth System Model (리눅스 기반 U.K. 지구시스템모형을 이용한 동아시아 SO2 배출에 따른 기상장 변화)

  • Youn, Daeok;Song, Hyunggyu;Lee, Johan
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.60-76
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    • 2022
  • This study presents a software full setup and the following test execution times in a Linux cluster for the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) and then compares the model results from control and experimental simulations of the UKESM relative to various observations. Despite its low resolution, the latest version of the UKESM can simulate tropospheric chemistry-aerosol processes and the stratospheric ozone chemistry using the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UKCA) module. The UKESM with UKCA (UKESM-UKCA) can treat atmospheric chemistryaerosol-cloud-radiation interactions throughout the whole atmosphere. In addition to the control UKESM run with the default CMIP5 SO2 emission dataset, an experimental run was conducted to evaluate the aerosol effects on meteorology by changing atmospheric SO2 loading with the newest REAS data over East Asia. The simulation period of the two model runs was 28 years, from January 1, 1982 to December 31, 2009. Spatial distributions of monthly mean aerosol optical depth, 2-m temperature, and precipitation intensity from model simulations and observations over East Asia were compared. The spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation from the two model simulations were generally in reasonable agreement with the observations. The simulated ozone concentration and total column ozone also agreed reasonably with the ERA5 reanalyzed one. Comparisons of spatial patterns and linear trends led to the conclusion that the model simulation with the newest SO2 emission dataset over East Asia showed better temporal changes in temperature and precipitation over the western Pacific and inland China. Our results are in line with previous finding that SO2 emissions over East Asia are an important factor for the atmospheric environment and climate change. This study confirms that the UKESM can be installed and operated in a Linux cluster-computing environment. Thus, researchers in various fields would have better access to the UKESM, which can handle the carbon cycle and atmospheric environment on Earth with interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land.