• Title/Summary/Keyword: science-specific error

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Study on the Feasibility of Applying Forecasted Weather Data for Operations of a Thermal Storage System (축열운전을 위한 기상예보치의 이용가능성에 대한 검토)

  • Jung Jae-Hoon;Shin Young-Gy;Park Byung-Yoon
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we investigated a feasibility of applying highest and lowest temperatures of the next day forecasted from a meteorological observatory to operation of an air-conditioning system with thermal storage. First we investigated specific characteristics of the time series of forecasted temperatures and errors in Osaka from 1994 to 1996. Since the forecast error is not always small, it might be difficult to use the forecasted data without correction for the sizing and the control of the thermal storage system. On the other hand, the autocorrelation functions of the forecast errors decrease relatively slowly during high summer season when cooling thermal storage is required. Since the values of the autocorrelation function; for one day are larger than 0.4, not small, the forecast errors can be predicted by proper statistical analysis. Thus, the forecasted values of the highest temperatures for the next day were improved by using the stochastic time series models.

Forecasting of Seasonal Inflow to Reservoir Using Multiple Linear Regression (다중선형회귀분석에 의한 계절별 저수지 유입량 예측)

  • Kang, Jaewon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.953-963
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    • 2013
  • Reliable long-term streamflow forecasting is invaluable for water resource planning and management which allocates water supply according to the demand of water users. Forecasting of seasonal inflow to Andong dam is performed and assessed using statistical methods based on hydrometeorological data. Predictors which is used to forecast seasonal inflow to Andong dam are selected from southern oscillation index, sea surface temperature, and 500 hPa geopotential height data in northern hemisphere. Predictors are selected by the following procedure. Primary predictors sets are obtained, and then final predictors are determined from the sets. The primary predictor sets for each season are identified using cross correlation and mutual information. The final predictors are identified using partial cross correlation and partial mutual information. In each season, there are three selected predictors. The values are determined using bootstrapping technique considering a specific significance level for predictor selection. Seasonal inflow forecasting is performed by multiple linear regression analysis using the selected predictors for each season, and the results of forecast using cross validation are assessed. Multiple linear regression analysis is performed using SAS. The results of multiple linear regression analysis are assessed by mean squared error and mean absolute error. And contingency table is established and assessed by Heidke skill score. The assessment reveals that the forecasts by multiple linear regression analysis are better than the reference forecasts.

The Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing Model: Evidence from a Highly Volatile Market

  • WATTANATORN, Woraphon;SOMBULTAWEE, Kedwadee
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.685-695
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    • 2021
  • This study explores the impact of stochastic volatility in option pricing. To be more specific, we compare the option pricing performance between stochastic volatility option pricing model, namely, Heston option pricing model and standard Black-Scholes option pricing. Our finding, based on the market price of SET50 index option between May 2011 and September 2020, demonstrates stochastic volatility of underlying asset return for all level of moneyness. We find that both deep in the money and deep out of the money option exhibit higher volatility comparing with out of the money, at the money, and in the money option. Hence, our finding confirms the existence of volatility smile in Thai option markets. Further, based on calibration technique, the Heston option pricing model generates smaller pricing error for all level of moneyness and time to expiration than standard Black-Scholes option pricing model, though both Heston and Black-Scholes generate large pricing error for deep-in-the-money option and option that is far from expiration. Moreover, Heston option pricing model demonstrates a better pricing accuracy for call option than put option for all level and time to expiration. In sum, our finding supports the outperformance of the Heston option pricing model over standard Black-Scholes option pricing model.

Key-point detection of fruit for automatic harvesting of oriental melon (참외 자동 수확을 위한 과일 주요 지점 검출)

  • Seung-Woo Kang;Jung-Hoon Yun;Yong-Sik Jeong;Kyung-Chul Kim;Dae-Hyun Lee
    • Journal of Drive and Control
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.65-71
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    • 2024
  • In this study, we suggested a key-point detection method for robot harvesting of oriental melon. Our suggested method could be used to detect the detachment part and major composition of oriental melon. We defined four points (harvesting point, calyx, center, bottom) based on tomato with characteristics similar to those of oriental melon. The evaluation of estimated key-points was conducted by pixel error and PDK (percentage of detected key-point) index. Results showed that the average pixel error was 18.26 ± 16.62 for the x coordinate and 17.74 ± 18.07 for the y coordinate. Considering the resolution of raw images, these pixel errors were not expected to have a serious impact. The PDK score was found to be 89.5% PDK@0.5 on average. It was possible to estimate oriental melon specific key-point. As a result of this research, we believe that the proposed method can contribute to the application of harvesting robot system.

Growth Modelling of Listeria monocytogenes in Korean Pork Bulgogi Stored at Isothermal Conditions

  • Lee, Na-Kyoung;Ahn, Sin Hye;Lee, Joo-Yeon;Paik, Hyun-Dong
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.108-113
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to develop predictive models for the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in pork Bulgogi at various storage temperatures. A two-strain mixture of L. monocytogenes (ATCC 15313 and isolated from pork Bulgogi) was inoculated on pork Bulgogi at 3 Log CFU/g. L. monocytogenes strains were enumerated using general plating method on Listeria selective medium. The inoculated samples were stored at 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$ for primary models. Primary models were developed using the Baranyi model equations, and the maximum specific growth rate was shown to be dependent on storage temperature. A secondary model of growth rate as a function of storage temperature was also developed. As the storage temperature increased, the lag time (LT) values decreased dramatically and the specific growth rate of L. monocytogenes increased. The mathematically predicted growth parameters were evaluated based on the modified bias factor ($B_f$), accuracy factor ($A_f$), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination ($R^2$), and relative errors (RE). These values indicated that the developed models were reliably able to predict the growth of L. monocytogenes in pork Bulgogi. Hence, the predictive models may be used to assess microbiological hygiene in the meat supply chain as a function of storage temperature.

New QECCs for Multiple Flip Error Correction (다중플립 오류정정을 위한 새로운 QECCs)

  • Park, Dong-Young;Kim, Baek-Ki
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.907-916
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we propose a new five-qubit multiple bit flip code that can completely protect the target qubit from all multiple bit flip errors using only CNOT gates. The proposed multiple bit flip codes can be easily extended to multiple phase flip codes by embedding Hadamard gate pairs in the root error section as in conventional single bit flip code. The multiple bit flip code and multiple phase flip code in this paper share the state vector error information by four auxiliary qubits. These four-qubit state vectors reflect the characteristic that all the multiple flip errors with Pauli X and Z corrections commonly include a specific root error. Using this feature, this paper shows that low-cost implementation is possible despite the QECC design for multiple-flip error correction by batch processing the detection and correction of Pauli X and Z root errors with only three CNOT gates. The five-qubit multiple bit flip code and multiple phase flip code proposed in this paper have 100% error correction rate and 50% error discrimination rate. All QECCs presented in this paper were verified using QCAD simulator.

An Integrated CAD/CAM System for CNG Pressure Vessel Manufactured by Deep Drawing and Ironing Operation

  • Park, Joon-Hong;Kim, Chul;Park, Jae-Chan
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.904-914
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    • 2004
  • The fiber reinforced composite material is widely used in the multi-industrial field because of their high specific modulus and specific strength. It has two main merits which are to cut down energy by reducing weight and to prevent explosive damage proceeding to the sudden bursting which is generated by the pressure leakage condition. Therefore, Pressure vessels using this composite material can be applied in the field such as defence industry and aerospace industry. In this paper, for nonlinear finite element analysis of E-glass/epoxy filament winding of composite vessel subjected to internal pressure, the standard interpretation model is developed by using the ANSYS with AutoLISP and ANSYS APDL languages, general commercial software, which is verified as useful characteristic of the solution. Among the modules of the system, both the process planning module for carrying out the process planning of filament wound composite pressure vessel and the autofrettage process module for obtaining higher residual stress will minimize trial and error and reduce the period for developing new products. The system can serve as a valuable system for experts and as a dependable training aid for beginners.

Dental maturity of Saudi children: Role of ethnicity in age determination

  • Baghdadi, Ziad D.
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.267-272
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: Demirjian's dental maturity scores and curves have been widely used for human age determination. Several authors have reported considerable differences between the true and estimated age based on the Demirjian curves, which have been accounted for by ethnicity. The purpose of the current study was to assess the role of ethnicity-specific dental maturation curves in age estimation of Saudi children. Materials and Methods: A sample of 452 healthy Saudi children aged 4 to 14 years were aged based on the original French-Canadian Demirjian curves and several modified Demirjian curves specified for certain ethnic groups: Saudi, Kuwaiti, Polish, Dutch, Pakistani, and Belgian. One-way ANOVA and a post hoc Scheff$\acute{e}$'s test were used to assess the differences between chronological age and dental age estimated by the different curves (P<0.05). Results: The curves designed for Dutch, Polish, Saudi, and Belgian (5th percentile) populations had a significantly lower error in estimating age than the original French-Canadian and Belgian (50th percentile) curves. The optimal curve for males was the Saudi one, with a mean absolute difference between estimated age and chronological age of 8.6 months. For females, the optimal curve was the Polish one, with a mean absolute difference of 7.4 months. It was revealed that accurate age determination was not related to certain ethnicity-specific curves. Conclusion: We conclude that ethnicity might play a role in age determination, but not a principal one.

Empirical Study on the Prediction of Rain Attenuation in EHF(44 GHz) Band (EHF(44 GHz) 대역 강우 감쇠 특성 예측 연구)

  • Park Yong-Ho;Lee Joo-Hwan;Pack Jeong-Ki
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.16 no.8 s.99
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    • pp.848-854
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    • 2005
  • The attenuation due to rain has been recognized as one of the major causes of unavailability of radio communication systems operating above about 10 GHz. To design radio links for telecommunications and to evaluate attenuation due to rainfall, it is important to have a good prediction model for rain attenuation such as a model for drop-size distribution of rainfall(DSD), a theoretical model for specific rain attenuation, and an empirical model fur effective path length through rain. In this paper, the extended generalized gamma distribution for drop-size distribution, based on the measurements in Chnugnam National University, is proposed as a new DSD model, and predicted specific attenuation characteristics using proposed DSD model and rain attenuation values in the 44 GHz satellite path using ITU-R effective path length model, are analysed. The predicted attenuation levels are also compared. It is found that an accurate prediction method for DSD is very important to reduce the prediction error in the local satellite path.

A Study of a Reliable Positioning Based on Technology Convergence of a Satellite Navigation System and a Vision System (위성항법시스템과 비전시스템 융합 기술 기반의 신뢰성있는 위치 측위에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chi-Ho;Kwon, Soon;Lee, Chung-Hee;Jung, Woo-Young
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.48 no.10
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    • pp.20-28
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    • 2011
  • This paper proposes a reliable high-precision positioning system that converges a satellite navigation system and a vision system in order to resolve position errors and outdoor shaded areas, two disadvantages of a satellite navigation system. In kinematic point positioning, the number of available satellite navigation systems changes in accordance with a moving object's position. For location determination of the object, it should receive location data from at least four satellite navigation systems. However, in urban areas, exact location determination is difficult due to factors like high buildings, obstacles, and reflected waves. In order to deal with the above problem, a vision system was employed. First, determine an exact position value of a specific building in urban areas whose environment is poor for a satellite navigation. Then, identify such building by a vision system and its position error is corrected using such building. A moving object can identify such specific building using a vision system while moving, make location data values, and revise location calculations, thereby resulting in reliable high precision location determination.