• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario analysis

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Assessment of Design Method about Sanitary Sewer Network according to RDII and Established Scenario (RDII발생 및 기존 시나리오에 따른 오수간선 네트워크 설계방법 검토)

  • Kim, Jungryul;Oh, Jeill
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.367-374
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the RDII impact on sewer designing in the upstream monitoring area (A site) was considered. Based on the long-term (1/1/2011~12/31/2011) rainfall and flow data consisting of 10-min interval sampling in the nearby design area (B site), the maximum RDII/DWF ratio was selected. The sewer network system at B site was evaluated by the Manning equation. Scenario 1 considering the hourly maximum flow with respect to the flow velocity showed that none of the sewer pipes satisfied the minimum flow velocity condition (0.6 m/s), and 40 pipes did not achieve half of the velocity condition. In scenario 2 considering I/I, 1 the pipes satisfied 0.6 m/s, and 35 pipes showed 0.3 m/s. Scenario 3 reflected the effect of RDII. Velocities in 26 pipes were less than 0.3 m/s, and 4 pipes satisfied the velocity condition. With respect to the allowance rate, 17 pipes were shown to have more than 99%, and none of the pipes satisfied less than 95% of the allowance rate in scenario 1. In scenario 2, 17 Ed: Per the Table pipes showed more than 99% and one pipe showed less than 95%. In scenario 3, 16 pipes showed more than 99% of the allowance rate, and 19 pipes showed less than 95%. Based on these results, it is predicted that deposition would occur due to the slow flow velocity; however, capacity would not be a problem.

A Study on Selection of Optimal Shelters according to Dam Break Scenario Based on Continuous Rainfall Event (연속호우사상기반의 댐 붕괴 시나리오에 따른 최적대피소 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyunghun;Lim, Jonghun;Kim, Hung Soo;Shin, Soeng Cheol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.433-447
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    • 2023
  • There is a growing demand for the stability of existing dams due to abnormal climate and the aging of dams. Emergency Action Plans (EAPs) for reservoir or dam failure only consider a single rainfall event. Therefore, this study simulates dam failure caused by continuous rainfall events, and proposes the establishment of EAP by selecting the optimal shelters. We define a mega rainfall event scenario caused by continuous rainfall events with 500-year frequency in the Chungju Dam watershed and estimate the mega flood. The mega flood event scenario is divided into two cases: scenario A represents the flooding case caused by discharge release from a dam, while scenario B is the case of a dam break. As a result of flood inundation analysis, the flooded damage area by the scenario A is 50.06 km2 and the area by the scenario B is 6.1 times of scenario A (307.45 km2). We select optimal shelters for each administrative region in the city of Chungju, which has the highest inundation rate in the urban area. Seven shelter evaluation indicators from domestic and foreign shelter selection criteria are chosen, and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to evaluate the alternatives. As a result of the optimal shelter selection, the six shelters are selected and five are schools. This study considers continuous rainfall events for inundation analysis and selection of optimal shelters. Also, the results of this study could be used as a reference for establishment of the EAP.

A Study on the Crashworthiness Evaluation and Performance Improvement of Tilting Train Carbody Structure made of Sandwich Composites (틸팅열차의 샌드위치 복합재 차체 구조물에 대한 충돌안전도 평가 및 향상방안 연구)

  • Jang, Hyung-Jin;Shin, Kwang-Bok;Han, Sung-Ho
    • Composites Research
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2011
  • This paper describes the crashworthiness evaluation and performance improvement of tilting train made of sandwich composites. The applied sandwich composite of carbody structure was composed of aluminum honeycomb core and glass/epoxy & carbon/epoxy laminate composite facesheet. Crashworthiness analysis of tilting train was carried out using explicit finite element analysis code LS-DYNA 3D. The 3D finite element model and 1D equivalent model were applied to save the finite element modeling and calculation time for crash analysis. The crash conditions of tilting train were conducted according to four crash scenarios of the Korean railway safety law. It found that the crashworthiness analysis results were satisfied with the performance requirements except the crash scenario-2. In order to meet the crashworthiness requirements for crash scenario-2, the stiffness reinforcement for the laminate composite cover and metal frames of cabmask structure was proposed. Consequentially, it has satisfied the requirement for crash scenario-2.

An Integrated Requirements Analysis Method based on Goal and Scenario (목표와 시나리오 기반의 통합적 요구 사항 분석 방안)

  • 김진태;김동선;박수용
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.543-554
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    • 2004
  • In Requirements engineering, requirements elicitation and analysis are very important tasks to develop software systems successfully. Even though various methods have been proposed including scenario-based analysis, goal based analysis, and coupling goal with scenario, each method has its own strengths and weaknesses. If you use only one method, it is very difficult to elicit and to analyze system requirements completely. Since these methods don't support a comprehensive elicitation process, this paper proposes an integrated approach. This integrated approach is focused on two viewpoints. One is what factors are comprised and the other is how they are integrated. This paper also shows how the proposed approach can be applied to Meeting Reservation System (MRS) development. An experiment has been conducted using this approach to demonstrate how complete requirements are elicited and analyzed and to show relative time savings during elicitation in comparison to each method.

Design of Scenario Creation Model for AI-CGF based on Naval Operations, Resources Analysis Model(I): Evolutionary Learning (해군분석모델용 AI-CGF를 위한 시나리오 생성 모델 설계(I): 진화학습)

  • Hyun-geun, Kim;Jung-seok, Gang;Kang-moon, Park;Jae-U, Kim;Jang-hyun, Kim;Bum-joon, Park;Sung-do, Chi
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.617-627
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    • 2022
  • Military training is an essential item for the fundamental problem of war. However, there has always been a problem that many resources are consumed, causing spatial and environmental pollution. The concepts of defense modeling and simulation and CGF(Computer Generated Force) using computer technology began to appear to improve this problem. The Naval Operations, Resources Analysis Model(NORAM) developed by the Republic of Korea Navy is also a DEVS(Discrete Event Simulation)-based naval virtual force analysis model. The current NORAM is a battle experiment conducted by an operator, and parameter values such as maneuver and armament operation for individual objects for each situation are evaluated. In spite of our research conducted evolutionary, supervised, reinforcement learning, in this paper, we introduce our design of a scenario creation model based on evolutionary learning using genetic algorithms. For verification, the NORAM is loaded with our model to analyze wartime engagements. Human-level tactical scenario creation capability is secured by automatically generating enemy tactical scenarios for human-designed Blue Army tactical scenarios.

Quantitative Analysis of Damage Impacts in case of Bunkering NH3 from Tank Lorry to Fishing Vessel (어선-탱크로리 간의 NH3 이적 시 누출에 따른 정량적 피해영향분석)

  • Lim, Sang-Jin;Choi, Bu-Hong;Lee, Yoon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.10-20
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    • 2022
  • About 21% of domestic chemical accidents are caused by transport vehicles for the past 10 years in Korea. Also, ammonia is a chemical substance with the largest number of accidents, 82 out of 672. In this study, supposed seasonal alternative scenario and worst scenario in case of releasing ammonia during bunkering it from tank lorry to fishing vessel and interpreted seasonal impact and range through Python, ALOHA, Probit analysis. Radiation impact range of possibility for 2nd burn and for maximum radiation in winter scenario, which is one of the alternative scenarios, was the highest(range: 41m, radiation: 5.01kW/m2) while overpressure impact was less than minimum standard of impact. And toxicity impact range(EPRG-2) of the summer scenario was the widest(5.0km) and took a very high death rate near accident area(port area, tourist area) according to Probit analysis. the wort scenario had a similar impact and range of summer scenario.

Cross Impact Analysis Using Goal Programming (Goal Programming을 이용한 상호영향도 분석)

  • 김연민;이진주
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 1981
  • This paper deals with cross impact analysis for technology assessment. The focus of the paper is to develop new technique of cross impact matrix using goal programming method. In this study, the idea of cross impact analysis based on scenario generation method especially SMIC-74 (2) is expanded. Critical literature review on SMIC-74 is presented to discuss the mathematical rationale of consistent probability in cross impact analysis. A new model of cross impact analysis using goal programming to overcome the shortcomings of the scenario generation technique especially SMIC-74 is developed. This new technique is also applied to the assessment of the air pollution problems in Seoul Metropolitan area in Korea. The results of analysis give us following findings 1) Cross impact analysis using goal programming produce more meaningful solutions comparing to those of SMIC-74 2) Theoretical rationale of the objective function in the newly developed technique is more appropriate than that of SMIC-74.

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A Wartime·Peacetime OMS/MP Analysis Model for a Naval Ship and Case Study (함정 전·평시 OMS/MP 설정 방법론 연구 및 사례)

  • Ha, Sungchul;Kook, Jungho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.660-666
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    • 2012
  • The weapon system is getting more and more expensive, complex and smarter. Therefore, efficiently and effectively, it is important to operate the weapon system. OMS/MP is a document to quantify operational factors like as environment, mission, mode etc. It is important data to perform RAM analysis in early weapon development phase and operate better a weapon system. This paper present a process and framework of OMS/MP for a naval ship with a deep analysis of relevant domestic and abroad case studies. It propose OMS/MP analysis framework based on wartime scenario and mission area analysis. This result will contribute not only improvement for the availability of a naval ship but also enhancement of RAM analysis process.

A Study of Environment Analysis Method for Information Strategy Planning based Scenarios (시나리오 기반의 정보화전략 계획 수립을 위한 환경 분석 방법 연구)

  • Hong, Jin-Woo;Park, Koo-Rack;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.195-203
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    • 2016
  • This paper, which was performed for an environmental analysis step in the information strategy planning, proposes the capable method of building a foundation which can improve the quality of results. An existing environment analyzing method is composed with external environment analysis, internal capacity analysis and information direction deriving activity. At the first stage of environment analysis, with current state analysis, preparation of interview with major stakeholder of project, carrying out the interview, added the activities to gain initial direction of the information. Then it applied a key-questioning of convergence scenario-based analysis for external environment analysis and internal capacity analysis. Performing the external environment analysis and internal capacity analysis with analysis model, convergence application of scenario-based analysis model was enabled to verify information direction on the initial setting. The result was applied at actual project site and was enabled to perform the project quickly, and to improve the quality of project results.

An interface development f of an auto PC using task analysis and scenario-based design (직무 분석과 시나리오 기반 설계를 이용한 Auto PC 인터페이스 개발)

  • Park, Jun-Ho;Jeon, Myoung-Hoon;Ahn, Jung-Hee
    • 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.02b
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    • pp.548-553
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    • 2007
  • Digital convergence 및 ubiquitous 환경이 보편화되면서 computer system이 대부분의 전자 제품에 삽입되고 있다. 제품의 인터페이스는 더욱 복잡해지고 있으며, 사용 방법 또한 어려워지고 있는 상황이다. 이 중 Auto PC는 대표적인 예로, 차량 운전 환경에서 네비게이션, 음악, 동영상, DMB, PC 등의 기능을 지원하는 복합 제품이다. 이러한 제품의 사용자 인터페이스 설계를 위해서는 제품을 사용하면서 일어나는 행동들과 이들의 흐름을 이해할 수 있는 시나리오 설계에 관한 연구가 필수적이다. 인간공학 및 HCI 분야에서는 사용자 인터페이스를 설계하고 평가할 수 있는 방법론 및 도구들이 많이 소개되고 있다. 또한 이러한 방법 및 도구들을 상황에 맞게 선택하고 종합하고자 하는 연구 역시 다양하게 이루어지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 인간 중심 설계(human centered design) 방법론 중 대표적인 시나리오 기반 설계(SBD: Scenario-Based Design)과 직무분석(Task Analysis)을 이용하여 Auto PC의 인터페이스 설계에 적용해보았다. 시나리오 기반 설계와 직무분석 두 방법론을 통합할 수 있는 프로세스를 적용하였고, 그 결과 각 방법론의 단점을 서로 보완할 수 있었다. 추후 prototype을 완성하고 사용성 평가 및 만족도 조사를 통하여 설계된 인터페이스를 검증하는 연구가 진행될 예정이다.

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