Cross Impact Analysis Using Goal Programming

Goal Programming을 이용한 상호영향도 분석

This paper deals with cross impact analysis for technology assessment. The focus of the paper is to develop new technique of cross impact matrix using goal programming method. In this study, the idea of cross impact analysis based on scenario generation method especially SMIC-74 (2) is expanded. Critical literature review on SMIC-74 is presented to discuss the mathematical rationale of consistent probability in cross impact analysis. A new model of cross impact analysis using goal programming to overcome the shortcomings of the scenario generation technique especially SMIC-74 is developed. This new technique is also applied to the assessment of the air pollution problems in Seoul Metropolitan area in Korea. The results of analysis give us following findings 1) Cross impact analysis using goal programming produce more meaningful solutions comparing to those of SMIC-74 2) Theoretical rationale of the objective function in the newly developed technique is more appropriate than that of SMIC-74.