• Title/Summary/Keyword: runoff modeling

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Climate change impact analysis on water supply reliability and flood risk using combined rainfall-runoff and reservoir operation modeling: Hapcheon-Dam catchment case (강우-유출 및 저수지 운영 연계 모의를 통한 기후변화의 이수안전도 및 홍수위험도 영향 분석: 합천댐 유역 사례)

  • Noh, Seong Jin;Lee, Garim;Kim, Bomi;Jo, Jihyeon;Woo, Dong Kook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.11
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    • pp.765-774
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    • 2023
  • Due to climatechange, precipitation variability has increased, leading to more frequentoccurrences of droughts and floods. To establish measures for managing waterresources in response to the increasing uncertainties of climate conditions, itis necessary to understand the variability of natural river discharge and theimpact of reservoir operation modeling considering dam inflow and artificialwater supply. In this study, an integrated rainfall-runoff and reservoiroperation modeling was applied to analyze the water supply reliability andflood risk for a multipurpose dam catchment under climate change conditions. Therainfall-runoff model employed was the modèle du Génie Rural à 4 paramètresJournalier (GR4J) model, and the reservoir operation model used was an R-basedmodel with the structure of HEC-Ressim. Applying the climate change scenariosuntil 2100 to the established integrated model, the changes in water supplyreliability and flood risk of the Happcheon Dam were quantitatively analyzed.The results of the water supply reliability analysis showed that under SSP2-4.5conditions, the water supply reliability was higher than that under SSP5-8.5conditions. Particularly, in the far-future period, the range of flood risk widened,and both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed the highest median flood riskvalues. While precipitation and runoff were expected to increase by less than10%, dam-released flood discharge was projected to surge by over 120% comparedto the baseline

Development and Application of a Physics-based Soil Erosion Model (물리적 표토침식모형의 개발과 적용)

  • Yu, Wansik;Park, Junku;Yang, JaeE;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Kim, Sung Chul;Park, Youn Shik;Hwang, Sangil;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.66-73
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    • 2017
  • Empirical erosion models like Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) models have been widely used to make spatially distributed soil erosion vulnerability maps. Even if the models detect vulnerable sites relatively well utilizing big data related to climate, geography, geology, land use, etc within study domains, they do not adequately describe the physical process of soil erosion on the ground surface caused by rainfall or overland flow. In other words, such models are still powerful tools to distinguish the erosion-prone areas at large scale, but physics-based models are necessary to better analyze soil erosion and deposition as well as the eroded particle transport. In this study a physics-based soil erosion modeling system was developed to produce both runoff and sediment yield time series at watershed scale and reflect them in the erosion and deposition maps. The developed modeling system consists of 3 sub-systems: rainfall pre-processor, geography pre-processor, and main modeling processor. For modeling system validation, we applied the system for various erosion cases, in particular, rainfall-runoff-sediment yield simulation and estimation of probable maximum sediment (PMS) correlated with probable maximum rainfall (PMP). The system provided acceptable performances of both applications.

Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Evaluation of a Distributed Model for Rainfall-Runoff-Soil Erosion-Sediment Transport Modeling in the Naesung Stream Watershed (내성천 유역의 강우-유출-토양침식-유사이송 모의를 위한 분포형 모형의 민감도 분석 및 매개변수 평가)

  • Jeong, Won Jun;Ji, Un
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.12
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    • pp.1121-1134
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    • 2014
  • The distributed watershed model of rainfall-runoff-soil erosion-sedimen transport was constructed for the Naesung Stream Watershed with high potentiality and risk of sediments produced by soil erosion. The sensitivity analyses of roughness coefficient and hydraulic conductivity which affected the modeling results of runoff and sediment concentration were performed in this study. As a result, the change of the roughness coefficient for the forest area from 0.4 to 0.45 did not affect the change in runoff and stream discharge and the average value and range of sediment concentration were also insignificantly increased with few difference. As a result of the sensitivity analysis of the hydraulic conductivity, the total amount of runoff and maximum runoff were gradually increased as the hydraulic conductivity was reduced. In the case of sediment concentration modeling, the average and the range of sediment concentration for all stations were increased as the hydraulic conductivity was decreased. For the Hyangseok Station, in case of the hydraulic conductivity reduced by 50%, the simulation result of sediment concentration was most similar to the estimated value by the sediment rating curve.

HSPF Modeling for Identifying Runoff Reduction Effect of Nonpoint Source Pollution by Rice Straw Mulching on Upland Crops (볏짚 피복에 의한 밭 비점원오염 저감효과 분석을 위한 HSPF 모델링)

  • Jung, Chung-Gil;Park, Jong-Yoon;Lee, Hyung-Jin;Choi, Joong-Dae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2012
  • This study is to assess the reduction of non-point source pollution loads for rice straw surface covering of upland crop cultivation at a watershed scale. For Byulmi-cheon watershed ($1.21km^2$) located in the upstream of Gyeongancheon, the HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran), a physically based distributed hydrological model was applied. Before evaluation, the model was calibrated and validated using 9 rainfall events. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for streamflow was 0.62~0.78 and the NSE for water quality (Sediment, T-N, and T-P) were 0.68, 0.60, and 0.58 respectively. From the field experiment of 16 rainfall events, the rice straw covering reduced surface runoff average 10 % compared to normal surface condition. By handling infiltration parameter (INFILT) in the model, the value of 16.0 mm/hr was found to reduce about 10 % reduction of surface runoff. For this condition, the reduction effect of Sediment, T-N, and T-P loads were 87.2, 28.5, and 85.1 % respectively. The rice straw surface covering was effective for removing surface runoff dependent loads such as Sediment and T-P.

Convolution Interpretation of Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimate and Rainfall-Runoff Modeling (비매개변수 핵밀도함수와 강우-유출모델의 합성곱(Convolution)을 이용한 수학적 해석)

  • Lee, Taesam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.15-19
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    • 2015
  • In rainfall-runoff models employed in hydrological applications, runoff amount is estimated through temporal delay of effective precipitation based on a linear system. Its amount is resulted from the linearized ratio by analyzing the convolution multiplier. Furthermore, in case of kernel density estimate (KDE) used in probabilistic analysis, the definition of the kernel comes from the convolution multiplier. Individual data values are smoothed through the kernel to derive KDE. In the current study, the roles of the convolution multiplier for KDE and rainfall-runoff models were revisited and their similarity and dissimilarity were investigated to discover the mathematical applicability of the convolution multiplier.

GIS Application Model for Spatial Simulation of Surface Runoff from a Small Watershed(I) (소유역 지표유출의 공간적 해석을 위한 지리정보시스템의 응용모형(I) -격자 물수지 모형의 개발 및 적용-)

  • 김대식;정하우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.37 no.3_4
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 1995
  • Geographic data which are difficult to handle by the characteristics of spatial variation and variety turned into a possibility to analyze with tlie computer-aided digital map and the use of Geographic Information System(GIS). The purpose of this study is to develop and apply a GIS application model (GISCELWAB) for the spatial simulation of surface runoff from a small watershed. This paper discribes the modeling procedure and the applicability of the cell water balance model (CELWAB) which calculates the water balance of a cell and simulates surface runoff of watershed simultaneously by the interaction of cells. The cell water balance model was developed to simulate the temporal and spatial storage depth and surface runoff of a watershed. The CELWAB model was constituted by Inflow-Outflow Calculator (JOC) which was developed to connect cell-to-cell transport mechanism automatically in this study. The CELWAB model requests detail data for each component of a cell hydrologic process. In this study, therefore, BANWOL watershed which have available field data was selected, and sensitivity for several model parameters was analyzed. The simulated results of surface runoff agreed well with the observed data for the rising phase of hydrograph except the recession phase. Each mean of relative errors for peak discharge and peak time was 0.21% and2.1 1% respectively. In sensitivity analysis of CELWAB , antecedent soil moisture condition(AMC) affected most largely the model.

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L-THIA/NPS to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on Estimated Runoff and NPS Pollution (도시화에 따른 유출과 비점원 오염 영향을 평가하기 위한 L-THIA/NPS)

  • Kyoung-Jae Lim;Bernard A. Engel;Young-Sug Kim;Joong-Dae Choi;Ki-Sung Kim
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.78-88
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    • 2003
  • The land use changes from non-urban areas to urban areas lead to the increased impervious areas, consequently increased direct runoff and higher peak runoff. Urban areas have also been recognized as significant sources of Nonpoint Source (NPS) pollution, while agricultural activities have been known as the primary sources of NPS pollution. Many features of the L-THIA/NPS GIS, L-THIA/NPS WWW system have been enhanced to provide easy-to-use system. The L-THIA model was applied to the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed in Indiana to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The L-THIA/NPS GIS estimated yearly direct runoff values match the direct runoff separated from U.S. Geological Survey stream flow data reasonably. The $R^2$ and Nash-Sutcliffe values are 0.67 and 0.60, respectively. The L-THIA estimated runoff volume and total nitrogen loading for each land use classification in the LEC watershed were computed. The estimated runoff volume and total nitrogen loading in the LEC watershed increased by 180% and 270% for the 20 years. Urbanized areas -"Commercial", "High Density Residential", and "Low Density Residential"- of the LEC watershed made up around 68% of the 1991 total land areas, however contributed more than 92% of average annual runoff and 86% of total nitrogen loading. Therefore, it is essential to consider the impacts of land use change on hydrology and water quality in land use planning of urbanizing watershed.nning of urbanizing watershed.

Grid Based Nonpoint Source Pollution Load Modelling

  • Niaraki, Abolghasem Sadeghi;Park, Jae-Min;Kim, Kye-Hyun;Lee, Chul-Yong
    • 한국공간정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.06a
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    • pp.246-251
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a grid based model for calculating the critical nonpoint source (NPS) pollution load (BOD, TN, TP) in Nak-dong area in South Korea. In the last two decades, NPS pollution has become a topic for research that resulted in the development of numerous modeling techniques. Watershed researchers need to be able to emphasis on the characterization of water quality, including NPS pollution loads estimates. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been designed for the assessment of NPS pollution in a watershed. It uses different data such as DEM, precipitation, stream network, discharge, and land use data sets and utilizes a grid representation of a watershed for the approximation of average annual pollution loads and concentrations. The difficulty in traditional NPS modeling is the problem of identifying sources and quantifying the loads. This research is intended to investigate the correlation of NPS pollution concentrations with land uses in a watershed by calculating Expected Mean Concentrations (EMC). This work was accomplished using a grid based modelling technique that encompasses three stages. The first step includes estimating runoff grid by means of the precipitation grid and runoff coefficient. The second step is deriving the gird based model for calculating NPS pollution loads. The last step is validating the gird based model with traditional pollution loads calculation by applying statistical t-test method. The results on real data, illustrate the merits of the grid based modelling approach. Therefore, this model investigates a method of estimating and simulating point loads along with the spatially distributed NPS pollution loads. The pollutant concentration from local runoff is supposed to be directly related to land use in the region and is not considered to vary from event to event or within areas of similar land uses. By consideration of this point, it is anticipated that a single mean estimated pollutant concentration is assigned to all land uses rather than taking into account unique concentrations for different soil types, crops, and so on.

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An Analysis of the Rainfall-Runoff of Natural Watershed Using the Hydraulic Routing Method (수리학적 추적 방법을 이용한 자연하천의 강우유출 해석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.7 s.156
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    • pp.555-564
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    • 2005
  • In this study, a simple rainfall-runoff model was proposed by using the hydraulic routing model that requires relatively few parameters. The parameters of this model were estimated by the watershed characteristics data, and were applied to the Soyang watershed and Ui stream watershed by using the kinematic wave for overland flow and dynamic wave routing for channel routing. In order to demonstrate validity, the proposed approach was compared to the HEC-1 model for the Soyang watershed. As the results of modeling have shown, the hydraulic model shows reasonable results similar to that of the HEC-1 model. This model also represents good results for the Ui stream watershed. Hence, even if this model is a simple rainfall-runoff model using general methodology, it is competitive to the natural watershed. However, it is still difficult to estimate the roughness coefficient and the catchment width, and therefore this model is in need of such supplements.

Development of Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Modelling System Integrated with GIS (지리정보시스템과 통합된 분포형 강우-유출 모의 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Yun-Seok;Kim, Kyung-Tak;Shim, Myung-Pil
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.76-87
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    • 2009
  • Most distributed models have been developed for data interchange between model for hydrological analysis and GIS(Geographic Information System). And some interface systems between them have been developed to operate the model conveniently. This study is about developing integrated system between model and GIS not coupled system based on file interchange or interface system. In this study, HyGIS-GRM which is integrated system between GRM(Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model) which is physically based distributed rainfall-runoff model and HyGIS(Hydro Geographic Information System) have been developed. HyGIS-GRM can carry out all the processes from preparing input data to appling them to model in the same system, and this operation environment can improve the efficiency of running the model and analyzing modeling results. HyGIS-GRM can provide objective modeling environment through establishing the process of integrated operation of GIS and distributed model, and we can obtain fundamental technologies for developing integrated system between GIS and water resources model.

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