• Title/Summary/Keyword: run probability

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Energy Outage Probability and Achievable Throughput of 2-Channel Sensing Secondary Users in RF Powered Cognitive Radio Networks (RF 충전 인지 무선 네트워크에서 2-채널 센싱 2차 사용자의 Energy Outage 확률 및 패킷 전송 성능)

  • Wu, Shanai;Shin, Yoan;Kim, Dong In
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.41 no.9
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    • pp.1044-1053
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we consider the secondary users (SUs) who are capable of harvesting energy from ambient radio frequency (RF) signals and are allowed to sequentially sense up to 2 different channels to find out idle channels not occupied by the primary users (PUs). The EH SUs are permitted to transmit data packets only if both idle channels and sufficient energy are available. Compared with traditional SUs, the EH SUs consume energy with data transmission and also harvest energy without additional energy supply. Consequently, the battery state is expected to be fluctuated due to energy consumption and harvesting, and therefore we develop a Markov battery model to provide energy variations at the 2-channel sensing EH SUs. With the proposed battery model, we derive the steady-state probability that the EH SUs completely run out of energy, and the achievable throughput of EH SUs is derived accordingly. To evaluate the proposed Markov battery model, the Monte-Carlo simulation was performed to validate the accuracy of energy outage probability and achievable throughput at the 2-channel sensing EH SUs.

Limit Pricing by Noncooperative Oligopolists (과점산업(寡占産業)에서의 진입제한가격(進入制限價格))

  • Nam, Il-chong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 1990
  • A Milgrom-Roberts style signalling model of limit pricing is developed to analyze the possibility and the scope of limit pricing in general, noncooperative oligopolies. The model contains multiple incumbent firms facing a potential entrant and assumes an information asymmetry between incombents and the potential entrant about the market demand. There are two periods in the model. In period 1, n incumbent firms simultaneously and noncooperatively choose quantities. At the end of period 1, the potential entrant observes the market price and makes an entry decision. In period 2, depending on the entry decision of the entrant, n' or (n+1) firms choose quantities again before the game terminates. Since the choice of incumbent firms in period 1 depends on their information about demand, the market price in period 1 conveys information about the market demand. Thus, there is a systematic link between the market price and the profitability of entry. Using Bayes-Nash equilibrium as the solution concept, we find that there exist some demand conditions under which incumbent firms will limit price. In symmetric equilibria, incumbent firms each produce an output that is greater than the Cournot output and induce a price that is below the Cournot price. In doing so, each incumbent firm refrains from maximizing short-run profit and supplies a public good that is entry deterrence. The reason that entry is deterred by such a reduced price is that it conveys information about the demand of the industry that is unfavorable to the entrant. This establishes the possibility of limit pricing by noncooperative oligopolists in a setting that is fully rational, and also generalizes the result of Milgrom and Roberts to general oligopolies, confirming Bain's intuition. Limit pricing by incumbents explained above can be interpreted as a form of credible collusion in which each firm voluntarily deviates from myopic optimization in order to deter entry using their superior information. This type of implicit collusion differs from Folk-theorem type collusions in many ways and suggests that a collusion can be a credible one even in finite games as long as there is information asymmetry. Another important result is that as the number of incumbent firms approaches infinity, or as the industry approaches a competitive one, the probability that limit pricing occurs converges to zero and the probability of entry converges to that under complete information. This limit result confirms the intuition that as the number of agents sharing the same private information increases, the value of the private information decreases, and the probability that the information gets revealed increases. This limit result also supports the conventional belief that there is no entry problem in a competitive market. Considering the fact that limit pricing is generally believed to occur at an early stage of an industry and the fact that many industries in Korea are oligopolies in their infant stages, the theoretical results of this paper suggest that we should pay attention to the possibility of implicit collusion by incumbent firms aimed at deterring new entry using superior information. The long-term loss to the Korean economy from limit pricing can be very large if the industry in question is a part of the world market and the domestic potential entrant whose entry is deterred could .have developed into a competitor in the world market. In this case, the long-term loss to the Korean economy should include the lost opportunity in the world market in addition to the domestic long-run welfare loss.

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A Markov Chain Model for Population Distribution Prediction Considering Spatio-Temporal Characteristics by Migration Factors (이동요인별 시·공간적 인구이동 특성을 고려한 인구분포 예측: 마르코프 연쇄 모형을 활용하여)

  • Park, So Hyun;Lee, Keumsook
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.351-365
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to predict the changes in population distribution in Korea by considering spatio-temporal characteristics of major migration reasons. For the purpose, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of each major migration reason(such as job, family, housing, and education) and estimate the transition probability, respectively. By appling Markov chain model processes with the ChapmanKolmogorov equation based on the transition probability, we predict the changes in the population distribution for the next six years. As the results, we found that there were differences of population changes by regions, while there were geographic movements into metropolitan areas and cities in general. The methodologies and the results presented in this study can be utilized for the provision of customized planning policies. In the long run, it can be used as a basis for planning and enforcing regionally tailored policies that strengthen inflow factors and improve outflow factors based on the trends of population inflow and outflow by region by movement factors as well as identify the patterns of population inflow and outflow in each region and predict future population volatility.

Prevalence Estimation of Several Chronic Diseases through Community Based Health Examination Survey (지역사회 주요 만성질환의 유병률 추정 - 구리시 '97 건강진단조사 결과를 기초로 -)

  • Han, Geun-Shik;Kim, Young-Ok;Kim, Hae-Kyung;Min, Byoung-Hyun;Lee, Soon-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.40-47
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    • 1999
  • Objectives. The health examination survey was conducted in order to estimate the prevalence of major chronic diseases in a community Methods. A multi-stage stratified probability sample of 1,656 persons, aged from 20 to 69 years, was drawn out from Kuri City. All sampled persons were personally informed of the purpose, content and procedures of the survey and mobile examination center was run between 6 AM and 9 PM for the convenience of the participants. Results. 854 persons (339 males and 515 females) completed this survey with a response rate of 53.4%. Prevalent diseases in male were hypertension(19.0%), HBs Ag carrier(9.8%), impaired glucose tolerance(8.7%), diabetes mellitus(6.3%), hypercholesterolemia(3.4%), anemia(2.7%) and degenerative arthritis(2.6%) in order of prevalence rate. Prevalent diseases in female were osteoporosis(22.5%), impaired glucose tolerance(17.3%), anemia(12.8%), hypertension(12.4%), degenerative arthritis (6.6%), HBs Ag carrier(5.8%), diabetes mellitus(5.4%) and hypercholesterolemia(3.5%) in order of prevalence rate. Conclusions. This results suggest that hypertension was most prevalent in adult male whereas diabetes mellitus including IGT, osteoporosis were most prevalent in adult female, in Kuri City.

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An Application of Realistic Evaluation Methodology for Large Break LOCA of Westinghouse 3 Loop Plant

  • Choi, Han-Rim;Hwang, Tae-Suk;Chung, Bub-Dong;Jun, Hwang-Yong;Lee, Chang-Sub
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1996.05b
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    • pp.513-518
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    • 1996
  • This report presents a demonstration of application of realistic evaluation methodology to a posturated cold leg large break LOCA in a Westinghouse three-loop pressurized water reactor with 17$\times$17 fuel. The new method of this analysis can be divided into three distinct step: 1) Best Estimate Code Validation and Uncertainty Quantification 2) Realistic LOCA Calculation 3) Limiting Value LOCA Calculation and Uncertainty Combination RELAP5/MOD3/K [1], which was improved from RELAP5/MOD3.1, and CONTEMPT4/MOD5 code were used as a best estimate thermal-hydraulic model for realistic LOCA calculation. The code uncertainties which will be determined in step 1) were quantified already in previous study [2], and thus the step 2) and 3) for plant application were presented in this paper. The application uncertainty parameters are divided into two categories, i.e. plant system parameters and fuel statistical parameters. Single parameter sensitivity calculations were performed to select system parameters which would be set at their limiting value in Limiting Value Approach (LVA) calculation. Single run of LVA calculation generated 27 PCT data according to the various combinations of fuel parameters and these data provided input to response surface generation. The probability distribution function was generated from Monte Carlo sampling of a response surface and the upper 95$^{th}$ percentile PCT was determined. Break spectrum analysis was also made to determine the critical break size. The results show that sufficient LOCA margin can be obtained for the demonstration NPP.

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Elliptical Clustering with Incremental Growth and its Application to Skin Color Region Segmentation (점증적으로 증가하는 타원형 군집화 : 피부색 영역 검출에의 적용)

  • Lee Kyoung-Mi
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.31 no.9
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    • pp.1161-1170
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    • 2004
  • This paper proposes to segment skin color areas using a clustering algorithm. Most of previously proposed clustering algorithms have some difficulties, since they generally detect hyperspherical clusters, run in a batch mode, and predefine a number of clusters. In this paper, we use a well-known elliptical clustering algorithm, an EM algorithm, and modify it to learn on-line and find automatically the number of clusters, called to an EAM algorithm. The effectiveness of the EAM algorithm is demonstrated on a task of skin color region segmentation. Experimental results present the EAM algorithm automatically finds a right number of clusters in a given image without any information on the number. Comparing with the EM algorithm, we achieved better segmentation results with the EAM algorithm. Successful results were achieved to detect and segment skin color regions using a conditional probability on a region. Also, we applied to classify images with persons and got good classification results.

Application of Fuzzy Logic for Predicting of Mine Fire in Underground Coal Mine

  • Danish, Esmatullah;Onder, Mustafa
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.322-334
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    • 2020
  • Background: Spontaneous combustion of coal is one of the factors which causes direct or indirect gas and dust explosion, mine fire, the release of toxic gases, loss of reserve, and loss of miners' life. To avoid these incidents, the prediction of spontaneous combustion is essential. The safety of miner's in the mining field can be assured if the prediction of a coal fire is carried out at an early stage. Method: Adularya Underground Coal Mine which is fully mechanized with longwall mining method was selected as a case study area. The data collected for 2017, by sensors from ten gas monitoring stations were used for the simulation and prediction of a coal fire. In this study, the fuzzy logic model is used because of the uncertainties, nonlinearity, and imprecise variables in the data. For coal fire prediction, CO, O2, N2, and temperature were used as input variables whereas fire intensity was considered as the output variable.The simulation of the model is carried out using the Mamdani inference system and run by the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in MATLAB. Results: The results showed that the fuzzy logic system is more reliable in predicting fire intensity with respect to uncertainties and nonlinearities of the data. It also indicates that the 1409 and 610/2B gas station points have a greater chance of causing spontaneous combustion and therefore require a precautional measure. Conclusion: The fuzzy logic model shows higher probability in predicting fire intensity with the simultaneous application of many variables compared with Graham's index.

A Study on Mission Analysis in Consideration of Effectiveness Measurement of UAV System Operations (UAV 체계운용효과도를 고려한 임무분석 연구)

  • Choi, Kwan-Seon;Jeong, Ha-Gyo;Park, Tae-Yoo;Jeon, Je-Hwan
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2011
  • This paper deals with a study on mission analysis considering the effectiveness measurement of UAV system operations. This mission analysis process is composed of 5 steps; (1) creation of a base model in MANA, (2) design of input parameter set using experiment design, (3) mapping input parameter set to the MANA scenario file, (4) data farming and model run in batch process, and (5) statistical analysis of the simulation result. In the result of this study, the effect of input parameter to the dependent parameter was shown to decrease in the order classification range, sweep width, height, speed, FOV(Field of view), and classification probability. The study also shows that the operational effectiveness of an improved scenario proposed can increase 10.2% from the base scenario.

Satellite Mobility Pattern Scheme for Centrical and Seamless Handover Management in LEO Satellite Networks

  • Tuysuz, Aysegul;Alagoz, Fatih
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.451-460
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    • 2006
  • Since low earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations have important advantages over geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) systems such as low propagation delay, low power requirements, and more efficient spectrum allocation due to frequency reuse between satellites and spotbeams, they are considered to be used to complement the existing terrestrial fixed and wireless networks in the evolving global mobile network. However, one of the major problems with LEO satellites is their higher speed relative to the terrestrial mobile terminals, which move at lower speeds but at more random directions. Therefore, handover management in LEO satellite networks becomes a very challenging task for supporting global mobile communication. Efficient and accurate methods are needed for LEO satellite handovers between the moving footprints. In this paper, we propose a new seamless handover management scheme for LEO satellites (SeaHO-LEO), which utilizes the handover management schemes aiming at decreasing latency, data loss, and handover blocking probability. We also present another interesting handover management model called satellite mobility pattern based handover management in LEO satellites (PatHO-LEO) which takes mobility pattern of both satellites and mobile terminals into account to minimize the handover messaging traffic. This is achieved by the newly introduced billboard manager which is used for location updates of mobile users and satellites. The billboard manager makes the proposed handover model much more flexible and easier than the current solutions, since it is a central server and supports the management of the whole system. To show the performance of the proposed algorithms, we run an extensive set of simulations both for the proposed algorithms and well known handover management methods as a baseline model. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithms are very promising for seamless handover in LEO satellites.

Design of the Robust CV Control Chart using Location Parameter (위치모수를 이용한 로버스트 CV 관리도의 설계)

  • Chun, Dong-Jin;Chung, Young-Bae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.116-122
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the production cycle in manufacturing process has been getting shorter and different types of product have been produced in the same process line. In this case, the control chart using coefficient of variation would be applicable to the process. The theory that random variables are located in the three times distance of the deviation from mean value is applicable to the control chart that monitor the process in the manufacturing line, when the data of process are changed by the type of normal distribution. It is possible to apply to the control chart of coefficient of variation too. ${\bar{x}}$, s estimates that taken in the coefficient of variation have just used all of the data, but the upper control limit, center line and lower control limit have been settled by the effect of abnormal values, so this control chart could be in trouble of detection ability of the assignable value. The purpose of this study was to present the robust control chart than coefficient of variation control chart in the normal process. To perform this research, the location parameter, ${\bar{x_{\alpha}}}$, $s_{\alpha}$ were used. The robust control chart was named Tim-CV control chart. The result of simulation were summarized as follows; First, P values, the probability to get away from control limit, in Trim-CV control chart were larger than CV control chart in the normal process. Second, ARL values, average run length, in Trim-CV control chart were smaller than CV control chart in the normal process. Particularly, the difference of performance of two control charts was so sure when the change of the process was getting to bigger. Therefore, the Trim-CV control chart proposed in this paper would be more efficient tool than CV control chart in small quantity batch production.