• Title/Summary/Keyword: root mean square error

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Validation of Extreme Rainfall Estimation in an Urban Area derived from Satellite Data : A Case Study on the Heavy Rainfall Event in July, 2011 (위성 자료를 이용한 도시지역 극치강우 모니터링: 2011년 7월 집중호우를 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Park, Kyung-Won;Kim, Jong Pil;Jung, Il-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.371-384
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    • 2014
  • This study developed a new algorithm of extreme rainfall extraction based on the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Satellite image data and evaluated its applicability for the heavy rainfall event in July-2011 in Seoul, South Korea. The power-series-regression-based Z-R relationship was employed for taking into account for empirical relationships between TRMM/PR, TRMM/VIRS, COMS, and Automatic Weather System(AWS) at each elevation. The estimated Z-R relationship ($Z=303R^{0.72}$) agreed well with observation from AWS (correlation coefficient=0.57). The estimated 10-minute rainfall intensities from the COMS satellite using the Z-R relationship generated underestimated rainfall intensities. For a small rainfall event the Z-R relationship tended to overestimated rainfall intensities. However, the overall patterns of estimated rainfall were very comparable with the observed data. The correlation coefficients and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 10-minute rainfall series from COMS and AWS gave 0.517, and 3.146, respectively. In addition, the averaged error value of the spatial correlation matrix ranged from -0.530 to -0.228, indicating negative correlation. To reduce the error by extreme rainfall estimation using satellite datasets it is required to take into more extreme factors and improve the algorithm through further study. This study showed the potential utility of multi-geostationary satellite data for building up sub-daily rainfall and establishing the real-time flood alert system in ungauged watersheds.

An Analysis on Characteristics of Turbulence Energy Dissipation Rate from Comparison of Wind Profiler and Rawinsonde (연직바람관측장비와 레윈존데의 비교를 통한 난류 에너지 감소률의 특성 분석)

  • Kang, Woo Kyeong;Moon, Yun Seob;Jung, Ok Jin
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.448-464
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to optimize the parameters related to consensus coherency within the PCL 1300, the operating program of wind profiler, from a validation of wind data between rawinsonde and wind profiler at Chupungryeong ($36^{\circ}13^{\prime}$, $127^{\circ}59^{\prime}$) site in Korea. It is then to analyze the diurnal and seasonal characteristics of the turbulence energy dissipation rate (${\varepsilon}$) in clear and rainy days from March 2009 to February 2010. In comparison of the wind data between wind profiler and rawinsonde during April 22-23, 2010, it was shown in a big error more than $10ms^{-1}$ over the height of 3,000 meters in the zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind components. When removing more than $10ms^{-1}$ in each wind speed difference of u an v components between the two instruments, the correlation coefficients of these wind components were 0.92 and 0.88, respectively, and the root mean square errors were 3.07 and $1.06ms^{-1}$. Based on these results, when the data processing time and the minimum available data within the PCL 1300 program were adjusted as 30 minutes and 60%, respectively, the bias errors were small. In addition, as a result of an analysis of sensitivity to consensus coherency of u and v components within the PCL1300 program, u components were underestimated in radial coherency, instantaneous and winbarbs coherency, whereas v components were overestimated. Finally by optimizing parameters of the PCL1300 program, the diurnal and seasonal means of ${\varepsilon}$ at each height were higher in rainy days than those in clear days because of increasing in the vertical wind speed due to upward and downward motions. The mean ${\varepsilon}$ for clear and rainy days in winter was lower than those of other seasons, due to stronger horizontal wind speed in winter than those in other seasons. Consequently, when the turbulence energy dissipation rates in the vertical wind speed of more than ${\pm}10cm\;s^{-1}$ were excluded for clear and rainy days, the mean ${\varepsilon}$ in rainy days was 6-7 times higher than that in clear days, but when considering them, it was 4-5 times higher.

A Simple Method Using a Topography Correction Coefficient for Estimating Daily Distribution of Solar Irradiance in Complex Terrain (지형보정계수를 이용한 복잡지형의 일 적산일사량 분포 추정)

  • Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2009
  • Accurate solar radiation data are critical to evaluate major physiological responses of plants. For most upland crops and orchard plants growing in complex terrain, however, it is not easy for farmers or agronomists to access solar irradiance data. Here we suggest a simple method using a sun-slope geometry based topographical coefficient to estimate daily solar irradiance on any sloping surfaces from global solar radiation measured at a nearby weather station. An hourly solar irradiance ratio ($W_i$) between sloping and horizontal surface is defined as multiplication of the relative solar intensity($k_i$) and the slope irradiance ratio($r_i$) at an hourly interval. The $k_i$ is the ratio of hourly solar radiation to the 24 hour cumulative radiation on a horizontal surface under clear sky conditions. The $r_i$ is the ratio of clear sky radiation on a given slope to that on a horizontal reference. Daily coefficient for slope correction is simply the sum of $W_i$ on each date. We calculated daily solar irradiance at 8 side slope locations circumventing a cone-shaped parasitic volcano(c.a., 570m diameter for the bottom circle and 90m bottom-to-top height) by multiplying these coefficients to the global solar radiation measured horizontally. Comparison with the measured slope irradiance from April 2007 to March 2008 resulted in the root mean square error(RMSE) of $1.61MJ\;m^{-2}$ for the whole period but the RMSE for April to October(i.e., major cropping season in Korea) was much lower and satisfied the 5% error tolerance for radiation measurement. The RMSE was smallest in October regardless of slope aspect, and the aspect dependent variation of RMSE was greatest in November. Annual variation in RMSE was greatest on north and south facing slopes, followed by southwest, southeast, and northwest slopes in decreasing order. Once the coefficients are prepared, global solar radiation data from nearby stations can be easily converted to the solar irradiance map at landscape scales with the operational reliability in cropping season.

Validation of Sea Surface Wind Speeds from Satellite Altimeters and Relation to Sea State Bias - Focus on Wind Measurements at Ieodo, Marado, Oeyeondo Stations (인공위성 고도계 해상풍 검증과 해상상태편차와의 관련성 - 이어도, 마라도, 외연도 해상풍 관측치를 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Do-Young;Woo, Hye-Jin;Park, Kyung-Ae;Byun, Do-Seong;Lee, Eunil
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2018
  • The sea surface wind field has long been obtained from satellite scatterometers or passive microwave radiometers. However, the importance of satellite altimeter-derived wind speed has seldom been addressed because of the outstanding capability of the scatterometers. Satellite altimeter requires the accurate wind speed data, measured simultaneously with sea surface height observations, to enhance the accuracy of sea surface height through the correction of sea state bias. This study validates the wind speeds from the satellite altimeters (GFO, Jason-1, Envisat, Jason-2, Cryosat-2, SARAL) and analyzes characteristics of errors. In total, 1504 matchup points were produced using the wind speed data of Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS) and of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) buoys at Marado and Oeyeondo stations for 10 years from December 2007 to May 2016. The altimeter wind speed showed a root mean square error (RMSE) of about $1.59m\;s^{-1}$ and a negative bias of $-0.35m\;s^{-1}$ with respect to the in-situ wind speed. Altimeter wind speeds showed characteristic biases that they were higher (lower) than in-situ wind speeds at low (high) wind speed ranges. Some tendency was found that the difference between the maximum and minimum value gradually increased with distance from the buoy stations. For the improvement of the accuracy of altimeter wind speed, an equation for correction was derived based on the characteristics of errors. In addition, the significance of altimeter wind speed on the estimation of sea surface height was addressed by presenting the effect of the corrected wind speeds on the sea state bias values of Jason-1.

A Quantification Method for the Cold Pool Effect on Nocturnal Temperature in a Closed Catchment (폐쇄집수역의 냉기호 모의를 통한 일 최저기온 분포 추정)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.176-184
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    • 2011
  • Cold air on sloping surfaces flows down to the valley bottom in mountainous terrain at calm and clear nights. Based on the assumption that the cold air flow may be the same as the water flow, current models estimate temperature drop by regarding the cold air accumulation at a given location as the water-like free drainage. At a closed catchment whose outlet is blocked by man-made obstacles such as banks and roads, however, the water-like free drainage assumption is no longer valid because the cold air accumulates from the bottom first. We developed an empirical model to estimate quantitatively the effect of cold pool on nocturnal temperature in a closed catchment. In our model, a closed catchment is treated like a "vessel", and a digital elevation model (DEM) was used to calculate the maximum capacity of the cold pool formed in a closed catchment. We introduce a topographical variable named "shape factor", which is the ratio of the cold air accumulation potential across the whole catchment area to the maximum capacity of the cold pool to describe the relative size of temperature drop at a wider range of catchment shapes. The shape factor is then used to simulate the density profile of cold pool formed in a given catchment based on a hypsometric equation. The cold lake module was incorporated with the existing model (i.e., Chung et al., 2006), generating a new model and predicting distribution of minimum temperature over closed catchments. We applied this model to Akyang valley (i.e., a typical closed catchment of 53 $km^2$ area) in the southern skirt of Mt. Jiri National Park where 12 automated weather stations (AWS) are operational. The performance of the model was evaluated based on the feasibility of delineating the temperature pattern accurately at cold pool forming at night. Overall, the model's ability of simulating the spatial pattern of lower temperature were improved especially at the valley bottom, showing a similar pattern of the estimated temperature with that of thermal images obtained across the valley at dawn (0520 to 0600 local standard time) of 17 May 2011. Error in temperature estimation, calculated with the root mean square error using the 10 low-lying AWSs, was substantially decreased from $1.30^{\circ}C$ with the existing model to $0.71^{\circ}C$ with the new model. These results suggest the feasibility of the new method in predicting the site-specific freeze and frost warning at a closed catchment.

Characteristics of the Differences between Significant Wave Height at Ieodo Ocean Research Station and Satellite Altimeter-measured Data over a Decade (2004~2016) (이어도 해양과학기지 관측 파고와 인공위성 관측 유의파고 차이의 특성 연구 (2004~2016))

  • WOO, HYE-JIN;PARK, KYUNG-AE;BYUN, DO-SEONG;LEE, JOOYOUNG;LEE, EUNIL
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • In order to compare significant wave height (SWH) data from multi-satellites (GFO, Jason-1, Envisat, Jason-2, Cryosat-2, SARAL) and SWH measurements from Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS), we constructed a 12 year matchup database between satellite and IORS measurements from December 2004 to May 2016. The satellite SWH showed a root mean square error (RMSE) of about 0.34 m and a positive bias of 0.17 m with respect to the IORS wave height. The satellite data and IORS wave height data did not show any specific seasonal variations or interannual variability, which confirmed the consistency of satellite data. The effect of the wind field on the difference of the SWH data between satellite and IORS was investigated. As a result, a similar result was observed in which a positive biases of about 0.17 m occurred on all satellites. In order to understand the effects of topography and the influence of the construction structures of IORS on the SWH differences, we investigated the directional dependency of differences of wave height, however, no statistically significant characteristics of the differences were revealed. As a result of analyzing the characteristics of the error as a function of the distance between the satellite and the IORS, the biases are almost constant about 0.14 m regardless of the distance. By contrast, the amplitude of the SWH differences, the maximum value minus the minimum value at a given distance range, was found to increase linearly as the distance was increased. On the other hand, as a result of the accuracy evaluation of the satellite SWH from the Donghae marine meteorological buoy of Korea Meteorological Administration, the satellite SWH presented a relatively small RMSE of about 0.27 m and no specific characteristics of bias such as the validation results at IORS. In this paper, we propose a conversion formula to correct the significant wave data of IORS with the satellite SWH data. In addition, this study emphasizes that the reliability of data should be prioritized to be extensively utilized and presents specific methods and strategies in order to upgrade the IORS as an international world-wide marine observation site.

Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation over CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Domain using Regional Climate Model HadGEM3-RA (HadGEM3-RA 지역기후모델을 이용한 CORDEX 동아시아 2단계 지역의 기온과 강수 모의 평가)

  • Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Uk;Kim, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.367-385
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    • 2022
  • This study evaluates the temperature and precipitation results in East Asia simulated from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) developed by the UK Met Office. The HadGEM3-RA is conducted in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase II domain for 15 year (2000-2014). The spatial distribution of rainbands produced from the HadGEM3-RA by the summer monsoon is in good agreement with the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APRODITE) data over the East Asia. But, precipitation amount is overestimated in Southeast Asia and underestimated over the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the simulated summer rainfall and APRODITE data show the least correlation coefficient and the maximum value of root mean square error in South Korea. Prediction of temperature in Southeast Asia shows underestimation with a maximum error during winter season, while it appears the largest underestimation in South Korea during spring season. In order to evaluate local predictability, the time series of temperature and precipitation compared to the ASOS data of the Seoul Meteorological Station is similar to the spatial average verification results in which the summer precipitation and winter temperature underestimate. Especially, the underestimation of the rainfall increases when the amounts of precipitation increase in summer. The winter temperature tends to underestimate at low temperature, while it overestimates at high temperature. The results of the extreme climate index comparison show that heat wave is overestimated and heavy rainfall is underestimated. The HadGEM3-RA simulated with a horizontal resolution of 25 km shows limitations in the prediction of mesoscale convective system and topographic precipitation. This study indicates that improvement of initial data, horizontal resolution, and physical process are necessary to improve predictability of regional climate model.

Comparison between Solar Radiation Estimates Based on GK-2A and Himawari 8 Satellite and Observed Solar Radiation at Synoptic Weather Stations (천리안 2A호와 히마와리 8호 기반 일사량 추정값과 종관기상관측망 일사량 관측값 간의 비교)

  • Dae Gyoon Kang;Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2023
  • Solar radiation that is measured at relatively small number of weather stations is one of key inputs to crop models for estimation of crop productivity. Solar radiation products derived from GK-2A and Himawari 8 satellite data have become available, which would allow for preparation of input data to crop models, especially for assessment of crop productivity under an agrivoltaic system where crop and power can be produced at the same time. The objective of this study was to compare the degree of agreement between the solar radiation products obtained from those satellite data. The sub hourly products for solar radiation were collected to prepare their daily summary for the period from May to October in 2020 during which both satellite products for solar radiation were available. Root mean square error (RMSE) and its normalized error (NRMSE) were determined for daily sum of solar radiation. The cumulative values of solar radiation for the study period were also compared to represent the impact of the errors for those products on crop growth simulations. It was found that the data product from the Himawari 8 satellite tended to have smaller values of RMSE and NRMSE than that from the GK-2A satellite. The Himawari 8 satellite product had smaller errors at a large number of weather stations when the cumulative solar radiation was compared with the measurements. This suggests that the use of Himawari 8 satellite products would cause less uncertainty than that of GK2-A products for estimation of crop yield. This merits further studies to apply the Himawari 8 satellites to estimation of solar power generation as well as crop yield under an agrivoltaic system.

Development of Weight Estimation Equations and Weight Tables for Larix kaempferi and Pinus rigida Stand (일본잎갈나무와 리기다소나무의 중량추정식 및 중량표 개발)

  • Jintaek Kang;Chiung Ko;Jeongmuk Park;Jongsu Yim;Sun-Jeong Lee;Myoungsoo Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.4
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    • pp.472-489
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to derive the optimal estimation equations for deriving the green and dry weights of Larix kaempferi (Japanese larch) and Pinus rigida (Rigida pine), which are major coniferous tree species in South Korea. The equations were then used to develop weight tables. Table development began with the sampling of 150 L. kaempferi and 90 P. rigida trees distributed throughout the national scale, after which green weights were measured on-site. Samples from each stand were then collected, and their dry weights were measured in a laboratory. The equation used to calculate green and dry weights was divided into a one-variable formula that uses only the diameter at breast height (DBH) and a two-variable equation that employs DBH and height. The equations used to estimate the green and dry weights of logs were divided into one- and two-variable equations using DBH. Statistical data, such as the fitness index (FI), root mean square error, standard error of estimation, and residual diagram, were used to verify the suitability of the estimation equations. Applicability was examined by calculating weights using the derived optimal equations. The equation W = bD+cD2 was used in measurements involving only DBH, whereas the equation W = aDbHc was employed in cases involving both diameter and height at breast height. The FI of W = bD+cD2 was 0.91, while that of W = aDbHc was 0.95, both of which are high values. With these estimation formulas, weight tables for the green and dry weights of L. kaempferi and P. rigida were prepared and compared with weight tables created 20 years ago. The green and dry weight tables of both species were larger.

Growth and Predictive Model of Wild-type Salmonella spp. on Temperature and Time during Cut and Package Processing in Cold Pork Meats (냉장돈육 가공공정 온도와 시간에서의 Wild-type Salmonella spp.의 성장특성 및 예측모델)

  • Song, Ju Yeon;Kim, Yong Soo;Hong, Chong Hae;Bahk, Gyung Jin
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.7-12
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    • 2013
  • This study presents the influence on growth properties determined using a novel predictive growth model of wild-type Salmonella spp. KSC 101 by variations in the temperature and time during cut packaging in cold, uncooked pork meat. The experiment performed for model development included an arrangement of different temperatures ($0^{\circ}C$, $5^{\circ}C$, $10^{\circ}C$, $15^{\circ}C$, and $20^{\circ}C$) and time durations (0, 1, 2, and 3 hours) that reflect actual pork-cut and packaging processes. No growth was observed at $0^{\circ}C$ and $5^{\circ}C$, whereas some growth was observed at $10^{\circ}C$, $15^{\circ}C$, and $20^{\circ}C$, with a mean increase of only 0.34 log CFU/g. The growth observed at $20^{\circ}C$ was more robust than that observed at $15^{\circ}C$, but the difference was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). However, compared with PMP (Pathogen Modeling Program), the wild-type Salmonella spp. KSC 101 showed a more rapid growth. We used the Gompertz 4 parameter equation as the primary model, and the exponential decay formula as the secondary model. The estimated $R^2$ values were 0.99 or higher. The developed model was evaluated by comparison of the experimental and predictive values, and the values were in agreement with the ${\pm}0.5$ log CFU/g, although the RMSE (Root mean square error) value was 0.103, which indicates a slight overestimation. Therefore, we suggest that the developed predictive growth model would be useful as a tool for evaluating sanitation criteria in pork cut-packaging processes.