• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.147-154
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• 2002

In the Past, The selection of individual method of construction was done by head of construction site or an experienced person very frequently. By doing this, The wrong selection of construction method without exact adjudication of construction site situation lead to increasing of cost and extension of construction term. Finally it will effect all over the construction process. Especially, In case of underground construction in the beginning, there are a lot of a variable factor and it also effect on the entire construction process and it need very careful process. The purpose of this study is to present the best suitable methodology for selection of construction method by considering potential risk of construction method and variables together with external condition for underground construction. The purpose of this study Is to select the most suitable construction method by analysing potential conditions(construction site situation and client request in designing ) To do this, We prepared arrangement rule to arrange the conditions for construction method. And thin make checklist of the analyzing construction method. Though above process, To expect the risk of individual construction method using above risk checklist and using Analytic Hierarchy process among Multiple-Criteria Decision making, the professional opinions is to be adapted. By doing this, it can lead and select the most suitable construction method considering the data which get from risk density test.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2001년도 학술논문발표회
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• pp.99-117
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• 2001

In the past, The selection of individual method of construction was done by head of construction site or an experienced person very frequently. By doing this, The wrong selection of construction method without exact adjudication of construction site situation lead to increasing of cost and extension of construction term. Finally it will effect all over the construction process. Especially, In case of Underground construction in the beginning, there are a lot of a variable factor and it also effect on the entire construction process and it need rely careful process. The purpose of this study is to present the best suitable methodology fer selection of construction method by considering potential risk of construction method and variables together with external condition for Underground construction. The purpose of this study is to select the most suitable construction method by analysing potential conditions(Construction site situation and Client. Request in designing) To do this, We prepared arrangement rule to arrangement conditions for construction method. And then make Checklist the analyzing construction method. Though above process, To expect the risk of individual construction method using above risk checklist and using Analytic Hierarchy Process among Multiple-Criteria Decision Making, the professional opinions is to be adapted. By doing this, It can lead and select the most suitable considering method considering the data which get from risk density test.

• 패션비즈니스
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.22-36
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• 2005

This research is to classify psychological risk perceptions in purchases process at counterfeit at fashion luxury brands, into a risk perception on purchase activity itself and a risk perception on the post-purchase situation, and to analyze types and characteristics at risk reduction behaviors to reduce each risk perception. In this research a qualitative method was employed, and research-related data were collected and analyzed through in-depth interviews. Results were shown that risk reduction behaviors at psychological risk perception on purchase activity itself included rationalization of purchase, accompanied purchase, reduction and discontinuance of purchase, and that risk reduction behaviors of psychological risk perception on the post-purchase situation included information search, establishment of selection criteria, establishment of marginal limit, selective purchase, planned and compared purchase, and reduction and discontinuance of purchase. Previous researches suggested brand loyalty, selection of famous brands, utilization of information agents by marketers, pre-purchase usage and guaranteed purchase, but these risk reduction methods were not utilized, this probably being interpreted as a result of characteristics of counterfeit. In addition, risk reduction behavior of one type tended to reduce risk perception of several other types, and risk reduction behaviors of various types were utilized to reduce a certain type's risk perception. Not only types of risk perception but also levels of risk perception appeared to have exerted influence to risk reduction behaviors.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.112-119
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• 2017

Selecting suppliers in the global supply chain is the very difficult and complicated decision making problem particularly due to the various types of supply risk in addition to the uncertain performance of the potential suppliers. This paper proposes a multi-phase decision making model for supplier selection under supply risks in global supply chains. In the first phase, the model suggests supplier selection solutions suitable to a given condition of decision making using a rule-based expert system. The expert system consists of a knowledge base of supplier selection solutions and an "if-then" rule-based inference engine. The knowledge base contains information about options and their consistency for seven characteristics of 20 supplier selection solutions chosen from articles published in SCIE journals since 2010. In the second phase, the model computes the potential suppliers' general performance indices using a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) based on their scores obtained by applying the suggested solutions. In the third phase, the model computes their risk indices using a TOPSIS based on their historical and predicted scores obtained by applying a risk evaluation algorithm. The evaluation algorithm deals with seven types of supply risk that significantly affect supplier's performance and eventually influence buyer's production plan. In the fourth phase, the model selects Pareto optimal suppliers based on their general performance and risk indices. An example demonstrates the implementation of the proposed model. The proposed model provides supply chain managers with a practical tool to effectively select best suppliers while considering supply risks as well as the general performance.

• 정보처리학회논문지C
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• 제10C권2호
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• pp.125-132
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• 2003

본 논문에서는 정보시스템의 위험관리 과정에서 위험감소 단계를 구체적이고 체계적인 방법과 절차를 제시하여 최적의 대응책을 선택할 수 있도록 하였다. 본 논문에서 제시한 실용적인 위험감소 방법론은 기존의 위험감소 절차보다 좀 더 체계적으로 수행절차를 수립하였으며, 각 단계마다 수행해야 할 프로세스를 구체적으로 정의하여 어떤 위험관리 방법론에 적용하더라도 쉽게 사용할 수 있도록 하였다. 실용적인 위험감소 방법론은 기존의 대응책 평가, 대응책 방법 선택, 대응책 기술 선택, 위험수용 평가, 비용효과 분석 그리고 대응책 구현을 포함한 6단계로 수행된다. 실용적인 위험감소 방법론의 특징은 대응책 구현에 앞서 대응책 수립 방법과 그 방법에 따른 기술들을 식별된 위험의 특성에 맞게 대응책을 선택할 수 있다. 그리고 기존의 대응책 평가를 통해 기능이 우수한 것은 재사용함으로써 동일한 대응책을 구현하는 중복작업과 구현 비용의 낭비를 방지할 수 있다. 또한 최종 대응책을 결정할 패 최고 경영자층의 의견을 반영하여 조직과 업무 특성에 맞게 조직이 요구하는 대응책을 선택할 수도 있게 하였다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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• pp.534-541
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• 2011

Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.839-850
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• 2021

Risk-adjusted return is believed to be one of the optimal parameters to determine an optimum portfolio. A risk-adjusted return is a calculation of the profit or potential profit from an investment that takes into account the degree of risk that must be accepted to achieve it. This paper presents a new procedure in portfolio selection and utilizes these results to optimize the risk level of risk-adjusted Islamic stock portfolios. It deals with the weekly close price of active issuers listed on Jakarta Islamic Index Indonesia for a certain time interval. Overall, this paper highlights portfolio selection, which includes determining the number of stocks, grouping the issuers via technical analysis, and selecting the best risk-adjusted return of portfolios. The nominated portfolio is modeled using Quadratic Programming (QP). The result of this study shows that the portfolio built using the lowest Value at Risk (VaR) outperforms the market proxy on a risk-adjusted basis of M-squared and was chosen as the best portfolio that can be optimized using QP with a minimum risk of 2.86%. The portfolio with the lowest beta, on the other hand, will produce a minimum risk that is nearly 60% lower than the optimal risk-adjusted return portfolio. The results of QP are well verified by a heuristic optimizer of fmincon.

• 정보처리학회논문지:소프트웨어 및 데이터공학
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.107-114
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• 2022

본 논문에서는 질병관리청 국민건강영양조사(KNHANES: Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) 데이터베이스에서 특징선택 방법으로 고혈압을 감지 예측하는 방법을 개선했다. 또한 만성 고혈압과 관련된 다양한 위험 요인을 확인하였다. 본 논문은 3가지로 나누어, 첫째 결측값을 제거하고 Z-변환을 하는 데이터 전처리 단계이다. 다음은 데이터 셋에서 특징선택법을 기반으로 하는 요인분석(FA)을 사용하는 특징선택 단계이며, 특징선택을 기반으로 다중공선형 분석(MC)와 특징중요도(FI)을 비교했다. 마지막으로 예측분석단계에서 고혈압 위험을 감지하고 예측하는데 적용했다. 본 연구에서는 각 분류 모델에 대해 ROC 곡선(AUC) 아래의 평균 표준 오차(MSE), F1 점수 및 면적을 비교한다. 테스트 결과 제안한 MC-FA-RF모델은 80.12% 가장 높은 정확도를 보이고, MSE, f-score, AUC 모델의 경우 각각 0.106, 83.49%의, 85.96% 으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 고혈압위험 예측에 대한 제안된 MC-FA-RF 방법이 다른 방법에 비해 우수함을 보이고 있다.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.105-123
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• 2020

This study analyzes the risk selection behavior of Japanese households. The study approaches the view of 'the hyperbolic discount' which is used in behavioral economics based on the rise in mortgage lending by low-income households in the late 2000s. The study focuses on how households risk preferences vary by income levels. The study analyzes the relationship of attitude of household interest rate risk using Binomial Logistic and Heckman two-step estimation method assuming that there are only two types of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage and Fixed-Rate Mortgage. As a result of the empirical analysis, low-income households annual income tend to have a higher proportion of housing debt as same as higher interest rate risk preferences households in proportion to income growth and interest rate risk preferences. Those results indicate that there is possibility of a hyperbolic discount on low-income households in Japan, and support the hypothesis that low-income households are relatively higher household debt ratio because of high utility due to home purchase in the near future (short-term).

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.491-499
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• 2011

In this paper, we offer a new strategic portfolio model for national IT R&D project selection in Korea. A risk and return (R-R) portfolio model was developed using an objectively quantified index on the two axes of risk and return, in order to select a strategic project and allocate resources in compliance with a national IT R&D strategy. We strategize using the R-R portfolio model to solve the non-strategy and subjectivity problems of the existing national R&D project selection model. We also use the quantified evaluation index of the IT technology road map (TRM) and the technical level reports (TLR) for the subjectivity of project selection, and try to discover the weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In addition, we intend to maximize the chance for a successful national IT R&D project, by selecting a strategic portfolio project and balancing the allocation of resources effectively and objectively.