• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk scoring

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The application of simplified risk assessment for tunnel (터널 리스크 평가 기법의 적용성에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Hwan;Lee, Chung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2007
  • Unexpected ground conditions have always been a major problem for the construction of tunnel. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the risk capacity before and/or during construction of new tunnel. This paper presents the simplified risk assessment system using modified stability number (N), namely Underground Risk Index (URI) system, to evaluate the tunnel risk possibility in the design stage. URI is a scoring system for risk possibility by rating the each appraisal elements. The modified stability number (N) which is one of risk factor in the Interaction Matrix parameters such as RQD, UCS, weathering, overburden, stability number, ground water-table, RMR, permeability and so on, is used in the system. In addition, the case study is performed in order to verify the applicability of URI-system in practice.

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A Risk Prediction Model for Operative Mortality after Heart Valve Surgery in a Korean Cohort

  • Kim, Ho Jin;Kim, Joon Bum;Kim, Seon-Ok;Yun, Sung-Cheol;Lee, Sak;Lim, Cheong;Choi, Jae Woong;Hwang, Ho Young;Kim, Kyung Hwan;Lee, Seung Hyun;Yoo, Jae Suk;Sung, Kiick;Je, Hyung Gon;Hong, Soon Chang;Kim, Yun Jung;Kim, Sung-Hyun;Chang, Byung-Chul
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.88-98
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    • 2021
  • Background: This study aimed to develop a new risk prediction model for operative mortality in a Korean cohort undergoing heart valve surgery using the Korea Heart Valve Surgery Registry (KHVSR) database. Methods: We analyzed data from 4,742 patients registered in the KHVSR who underwent heart valve surgery at 9 institutions between 2017 and 2018. A risk prediction model was developed for operative mortality, defined as death within 30 days after surgery or during the same hospitalization. A statistical model was generated with a scoring system by multiple logistic regression analyses. The performance of the model was evaluated by its discrimination and calibration abilities. Results: Operative mortality occurred in 142 patients. The final regression models identified 13 risk variables. The risk prediction model showed good discrimination, with a c-statistic of 0.805 and calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.630. The risk scores ranged from -1 to 15, and were associated with an increase in predicted mortality. The predicted mortality across the risk scores ranged from 0.3% to 80.6%. Conclusion: This risk prediction model using a scoring system specific to heart valve surgery was developed from the KHVSR database. The risk prediction model showed that operative mortality could be predicted well in a Korean cohort.

An Economic Evaluation of FMS Considering the Safety and Flexibility Factors (FMS에서 유연성과 안전성 요인을 고려한 경제성 평가)

  • 강영식;함효준
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.22 no.51
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 1999
  • Many firms have applied flexible manufacturing systems as a means of increasing productivity, profitability, and quality. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop the more efficient justification model through an analytical scoring model with the quantitative factors, flexibility factors, and safety factors under uncertainty. In this paper, the three factors for properly comparing and evaluating of flexible manufacturing systems are presented. Especially, this paper has emphasized the flexibility and safety factor; the one consists of organization assessment, process treatment function, products and products quantity, useful life assesment, and software function, the other presents risk assesment, Y2K problem, safety device analysis, total productive management system, safety management. Finally, a normalized scoring model by the new flexibility and safety factors can be used in real fields for flexible manufacturing systems project selection under uncertainty.

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An Ensemble Model for Credit Default Discrimination: Incorporating BERT-based NLP and Transformer

  • Sophot Ky;Ju-Hong Lee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.624-626
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    • 2023
  • Credit scoring is a technique used by financial institutions to assess the creditworthiness of potential borrowers. This involves evaluating a borrower's credit history to predict the likelihood of defaulting on a loan. This paper presents an ensemble of two Transformer based models within a framework for discriminating the default risk of loan applications in the field of credit scoring. The first model is FinBERT, a pretrained NLP model to analyze sentiment of financial text. The second model is FT-Transformer, a simple adaptation of the Transformer architecture for the tabular domain. Both models are trained on the same underlying data set, with the only difference being the representation of the data. This multi-modal approach allows us to leverage the unique capabilities of each model and potentially uncover insights that may not be apparent when using a single model alone. We compare our model with two famous ensemble-based models, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting.

Predictive Factors of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Infection in Elderly Patients with Community-Onset Pneumonia

  • Jwa, Hyeyoung;Beom, Jong Wook;Lee, Jong Hoo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.80 no.2
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    • pp.201-209
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    • 2017
  • Background: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection is a severe and life-threatening disease in patients with community-onset (CO) pneumonia. However, the current guidelines lack specificity for a screening test for MRSA infection. Methods: This study was retrospectively conducted in elderly patients aged ${\geq}65years$, who had contracted CO-pneumonia during hospitalization at the Jeju National University Hospital, between January 2012 and December 2014. We analyzed the risk factors of MRSA in these patients and developed a scoring system to predict MRSA infection. Results: A total of 762 patients were enrolled in this study, including 19 (2.4%) with MRSA infection. Healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) showed more frequent MRSA infection compared to community-acquired pneumonia (4.4% vs. 1.5%, respectively; p=0.016). In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, admissions during the influenza season (odds ratio [OR], 2.896; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.022-8.202; p=0.045), chronic kidney disease (OR, 3.555; 95% CI, 1.157-10.926; p=0.027), and intensive care unit admission (OR, 3.385; 95% CI, 1.035-11.075; p=0.044) were identified as predictive factors for MRSA infection. However, the presence of HCAP was not significantly associated with MRSA infection (OR, 1.991; 95% CI, 0.720-5.505; p=0.185). The scoring system consisted of three variables based on the multivariate analysis, and showed moderately accurate diagnostic prediction (area under curve, 0.790; 95% CI, 0.680-0.899; p<0.001). Conclusion: MRSA infection would be considered in elderly CO-pneumonia patients, with three risk factors identified herein. When managing elderly patients with pneumonia, clinicians might keep in mind that these risk factors are associated with MRSA infection, which may help in selecting appropriate antibiotics.

Assessment of DNA Ploidy Patterns in Connection with Prognostic Factors in Patients with Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma (유두상 갑상선암에서 예후인자와 DNA배수성의 상관관계)

  • Chung Woung-Youn;Lee Jong-Hoon;Park Cheong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Head & Neck Oncology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.153-160
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    • 1996
  • Regardless of the prognostic factors in papillary thyroid cancer, such as sex, age, size of tumor, extent of disease, and distant metastasis, the prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer is sometimes difficult to predict from clinical and microscopic analysis alone and additional prognostic indicators are needed. Recent studies of thyroid cancer have indicated that DNA aneuploidy may be correlated to the biological behavior of malignancy and inversely correlated to the prognosis, but it still remains contraversal. We performed this study to assess DNA ploidy patterns in relation with the previously known prognostic factors in AMES scoring system and lateral neck node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer. A series of 132 patients with papillary thyroid cancer and 80 patients with benign thyroid tumor(27 follicular adenomas and 53 adenomatous goiters) as a control group from October 1993 to Feburary 1995 were analyzed and their nuclear DNA content was measured with flow cytometry using fresh tissue specimens. DNA aneuploidy was found in 8(6.1%) in papillary cancer and 8(10%) in benign tumor. S-phase traction(SFP) and proliferative index(PI) were higher in thyroid cancers, being 2.18$\pm$4.24%, 6.34$\pm$4.94% in the papillary thyroid cancers and 1.97$\pm$2.93%, 4.44$\pm$3.80% in the benign tumors, respectively. However there was no significant difference of values between two groups(p>0.05). Among variable prognostic factors studied(age, sex, size of tun or, extent of disease, distant metastasis in AMES scoring system and lateral neck node metastasis), DNA aneuploidy was found to be common in distant metastasis(p<0.001) and in lateral neck node metastasis(p>0.035), but there was no significant difference between the high risk and low risk group according to the AMES scoring system(p<0.08). In our study, DNA aneuploidy was not valuable in determining the presence of malignancy and did not correlate to the AMES scoring system. However, follow-up study of more cases will be needed for accurate information about the DNA ploidy as a independent prognostic factor.

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Assessment factors for the Selection of Priority Soil Contaminants based on the Comparative Analysis of Chemical Ranking and Scoring Systems (국내.외 Chemical Ranking and Scoring 체계 비교분석을 통한 우선순위 토양오염물질 선정을 위한 평가인자 도출)

  • An, Youn-Joo;Jeong, Seung-Woo;Kim, Tae-Seung;Lee, Woo-Mi;Nam, Sun-Hwa;Baek, Yong-Wook
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.62-71
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    • 2008
  • Soil quality standards (SQS) are necessary to protect the human health and soil biota from the exposure to soil pollutants. The current SQS in Korea contain only sixteen substances, and it is scheduled to expand the number of substances. Chemical ranking and scoring (CRS) system is very effective to screen the priority chemicals for the future SQS in terms of their toxicity and exposure potential. In this study, several CRS systems were extensively compared to propose the assessment factors that required for the screening of soil pollutants The CRS systems considered in this study include the CHEMS-1 (Chemical Hazard Evaluation for Management Strategies), SCRAM (Scoring and Ranking Assessment Model), EURAM (European Union Risk Ranking Method), ARET (Accelerated Reduction/Elimination of Toxics), CRSKorea, and other systems. The additional assessment factors of CRS suitable for soil pollutants were suggested. We suggest soil adsorption factor as an appropriate factor of CRS system to consider chemical transport from soil to groundwater. Other factors such as soil emission rate and cases of accident of soil pollutants were included. These results were reflected to screen the priority chemicals in Korea, as a part of the project entitled ‘Setting the Priority of Soil Contaminants'.

No benefit of hypomethylating agents compared to supportive care for higher risk myelodysplastic syndrome

  • Sohn, Sang Kyun;Moon, Joon Ho;Lee, In Hee;Ahn, Jae Sook;Kim, Hyeoung Joon;Chung, Joo Seop;Shin, Ho Jin;Park, Sung Woo;Lee, Won Sik;Lee, Sang Min;Kim, Hawk;Lee, Ho Sup;Kim, Yang Soo;Cho, Yoon Young;Bae, Sung Hwa;Lee, Ji Hyun;Kim, Sung Hyun;Song, Ik Chan;Kwon, Ji Hyun;Lee, Yoo Jin
    • The Korean journal of internal medicine
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.1194-1202
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    • 2018
  • Background/Aims: This study evaluated the role of hypomethylating agents (HMA) compared to best supportive care (BSC) for patients with high or very-high (H/VH) risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) according to the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System. Methods: A total of 279 H/VH risk MDS patients registered in the Korean MDS Working Party database were retrospectively analyzed. Results: HMA therapy was administered to 205 patients (73.5%), including 31 patients (11.1%) who then received allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT), while 74 patients (26.5%) received BSC or allo-HCT without HMA. The 3-year overall survival (OS) rates were $53.1%{\pm}10.7%$ for allo-HCT with HMA, $75%{\pm}21.7%$ for allo-HCT without HMA, $17.3%{\pm}3.6%$ for HMA, and $20.8%{\pm}6.9%$ for BSC groups (p < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, only allo-HCT was related with favorable OS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.356; p = 0.002), while very poor cytogenetic risk (HR, 5.696; p = 0.042), age ${\geq}65years$ (HR, 1.578; p = 0.022), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) 2 to 4 (HR, 2.837; p < 0.001), and transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML) (HR, 1.901; p = 0.001) all had an adverse effect on OS. Conclusions: For the H/VH risk group, very poor cytogenetic risk, age ${\geq}65years$, ECOG PS 2 to 4, and AML transformation were poor prognostic factors. HMA showed no benefit in terms of OS when compared to BSC. Allo-HCT was the only factor predicting a favorable long-term outcome. The use of HMA therapy did not seem to have an adverse effect on the transplantation outcomes. However, the conclusion of this study should be carefully interpreted and proven by large scale research in the future.

The Environmental Hazard Assessment of Siting Restricted Industries from Industrial Complex in Rural Area Applied by Chemical Ranking and Scoring System (화학적 등급화기법을 적용한 농공단지 입주제한업종의 환경유해성 평가)

  • Hong, Sang-Pyo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.549-560
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    • 2015
  • The priorities of siting restriction was derived from quantification of environmental hazard according to industrial classification based on 'Chemical Ranking and Scoring System(CRS)' which is handling the discharge characteristics of 31 industrial classifications regulated from locating at 'Industrial Complex in Rural Area(ICRA)'. CRS that is utilizing the data of 'Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers(PRTR)' is applied to determine human health risk and ecological risk which are calculated by discharged amount and materials $LC_{50}$ according to water, soil and air media based on industrial classification. From this process, exposure assessment and toxicity assessment for integrating the adverse environmental impact and the mitigation effect of environmental risk according to the development of environmental technologies into establishing the rational landuse management method for the 31 industrial classifications regulated from locating at ICRA was analyzed. From the assessment result of the siting restriction removal at ICRA for 31 industrial classifications, based on 2012 year reference 6 industries that includes Manufacture of Guilt Coloration Surface Processing Steel Materials, Manufacture of Biological Product, Manufacture of Smelting Refining and Alloys of Copper, Dyeing and Finishing of Fibers and Yarns, Manufacture of Other Basic Iron and Steel n.e.c., Rolling Drawing and Extruding of Non-ferrous Metals n.e.c. are calculated as having relatively lower environmental hazards, thus it is judged that the siting restriction mitigation at ICRA is possible for the 6 industrial classifications that are not discharging the specific hazardous water contaminants during manufacturing process.

The Relationship of Risk Assessment Using Braden Scale and Development of Pressure Sore in Neurologic Intensive Care Unit (Braden scale을 이용한 신경외과 중환자의 욕창 위험 요인 사정과 욕창 발생과의 관계)

  • Lee, Jong-Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.267-277
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the applicability of braden scale to assess pressure ulcer risk patients and to identify additional risk factors of pressure sores in an neurologic intensive care unit. Method: The subjects of this study were 66 patients in neurologic intensive care units. Data was prospectively collected from Sep. to Dec., 2002. Data were analyzed by mean, percentage, t-test, chi-square, discriminant analysis using Spss pc+. Result: The results of this study were as follows: 1) There was a significant difference between scoring of braden scale and pressure ulcer development. The subscales that predicted pressure ulcer development using braden scale only were sensory perception, moisture, mobility, friction & shear. By using these subscales, sensitivity was 86.7%, and specificity was 61.1%, and total hit ratio was 72.7%. 2) Additional pressure ulcer risk factors which showed significance for discriminating two group were protein, albumin, gender, level of consciousness, pattern of bowel elimination. By using the combination of these additional risk factors in addition to the braden scale, total hit ratio increased to 84.8%. Conclusion: This data suggest that albumin, protein, gender, level of consciousness, pattern of bowel elimination in addition to the braden scale should be included in the pressure sore assessment tool.

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