• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.27-41
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• 1996

This study described methods to predict human health risk associated with exposure to environmental carcinogens using animal bioassay data. Also, biological assumption for various dose-response models were reviewed. To illustrate the process of risk estimate using relevant dose-response models such as Log-normal, Mantel-Bryan, Weibull and Multistage model, we used four animal carcinogenesis bioassy data of chloroform and chloroform concentrations of tap water measured in large cities of Korea from 1987 to 1995. As a result, in the case of using average concentration in exposure data and 95% upper boud unit risk of Multistge model, excess cancer risk(RISK I) was about $1.9\times10^{-6}$, in the case of using probability distribution of cumulative exposure data and unit risks, those risks(RISK II) which were simulated by Monte-Carlo analysis were about $2.4\times10^{-6}\;and\;7.9\times10^{-5}$ at 50 and 95 percentile, respectively. Therefore risk estimated by Monte-Carlo analysis using probability distribution of input variables may be more conservative.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권12호
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• pp.6423-6427
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• 2012

Background: Functional single nucleotide polymorphisms of x-ray repair cross-complementing protein 1 (XRCC1) have been suspected to contribute to uterine cervical cancer risk for a long time; however, most previous case-control studies were small sized and biased. Additionally, recent studies suggested that XRCC1 polymorphisms could be a biomarker of response to platinum-based chemotherapy. Methods: A comprehensive search was conducted to retrieve eligible studies and odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated to measure association strength. Results: A total of 13 studies were identified and analyzed. We found that the Arg194Trp polymorphism (Trp vs. Arg, OR=1.342, 95% CI: 1.176) was associated with increased risk of cervical cancer, while no significant association was found with Arg280His (His vs. Arg, OR=1.059, 95% CI: 0.863, 1.299) or Arg399Gln (Gln vs. Arg, OR=1.144, 95% CI: 0.938, 1.394). As for response to platinum-based chemotherapy, the variant XRCC1 399Gln allele (Gln vs. Arg, OR=0.345, 95% CI: 0.163, 0.729) was linked with a poor response; however, the Arg194Trp polymorphism (TrpArg vs. ArgArg, OR=6.421, 95% CI: 1.573, 26.205) predicted a good response. Conclusion: The Arg194Trp polymorphism of XRCC1 increases risk of cervical cancer; the variant 399Gln allele predicts poor response to platinum-based chemotherapy, while the Arg194Trp polymorphism indicates a good response.

• 아동학회지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.193-209
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• 1998

The present study assessed children's perceptions of risk of sexual abuse before and after participation in a sexual abuse prevention program, and investigated the effects of the sexual abuse prevention program on the children's emotional response. The subjects for this study were 135 3rd and 145 6th graders, attending elementary school in Seoul. Instruments were the Sexual Abuse Situational Risk (Jacobs, Hashima, & Kenning, 1995) and the Children's Emotional Response Questionnaire (Garbarino, 1987). The results of this study were that (1) children's perceptions of the risk of sexual abuse by a stranger decreased, relative to those by familiar persons which increased after the program. Especially, 6th graders had higher perceptions of the likelihood of abuse by familiar persons than 3rd graders. Girls had higher perceptions of risk than boys. (2) Children perceived adults as more dangerous than adolescents both before-and after-program. (3) Children's perceptions of the risk of sexual abuse in public settings decreased, relative to perceptions of risk in private settings which increased after the program. Girls had higher perceptions of the liklihood of abuse in private settings than boys; no significant difference was found by grade. (4) Children's emotional response did not reveal a significant change between pretest and posttests.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.73-81
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• 2012

Objectives: With the goal of quantifying the risk of children contracting gastroenteritis while playing at interactive waterscape facilities and evaluating the adequacy of current water quality regulations, risk assessment was performed with Escherichia coli as pathogen. Methods: Abundances of E. coli in the waters of interactive water features in South Korea were acquired from survey reports. A gamma distribution describing the volume of water swallowed by children during swimming activities was adopted. Exposure rate and risk were calculated by Monte Carlo simulation and dose-response models for various pathogenic E. coli. Results: E. coli was detected in 25 out of 40 facilities, with range of ~1,600 CFU/100 ml. The abundance fitted an exponential distribution. Simulated exposures ranged ${\sim}1.9{\times}10^{10}$ CFU, varying greater along E. coli abundance than the volume of water. Risk of children being infected by enterohemorrhagic E. coli was high, with range of ~0.85. When E. coli abundance was <200 CFU/100 ml, which is the current government threshold, the risk decreased to <0.43. Although the guideline successfully reduced the risk of adults being infected by a less virulent E. coli strains (<0.03), the risk for children could not be quantified due to lack of dose-response models for those pathogens for children. Conclusions: Under the current guideline, children are at risk of being infected if water is contaminated with by enterohemorrhagic E. coli. For other E. coli strains, the risk appears to be considerably less. The result warrants need for developing dose-response models for children for each pathogenic E. coli strain.

• 한국가스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국가스학회 2005년도 춘계학술대회 및 특별심포지움
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• pp.199-199
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• 2005

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.230-234
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• 2011

It is endeavoring for sea safety and fire[1] at sea prevention solidifying control of standard technology and safety supervision aspect in IMO[2] but sea accident and ship fire are happening continuously. Because using Robot in artistic talent of ship in this treatise, studied that correspond to Risk and manage. Attach fire perception sensor for Robot's Risk confrontation, and because using infrared rays sensor, TOUCH SWITCH, sound perception sensor, gas perception sensor, light perception sensor that is threaded in Robot and is achieved, controlled Robot, and establish Low-High value the speed of sound output use and DC MOTOR and COM SEN of when indicate Risk confrontation to Robot and establish Robot's Risk confrontation administration action.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.130-135
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• 2013

Until now, passenger airbag design is based on the referred car design and many repetitive crash tests have been done to meet the crash performance. In this paper, it was suggested a new design process of passenger airbag. First, key performance factors were determined by analyzing the injury risk effectiveness of each performance factor. And it was made a relationship between injury risk and performance factor by using the response surface model. By using this one, it can be predicted the injury risk of head and neck. Predicted injury risk of optimal design was obtained through this injury risk prediction model and it was verified by FE analysis result within 18% error of head and 9% error of neck. It was shown that a target crash performance can be met by controlling the key performance factors only.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2008

In this minireview we focus on how males may exploit female's sensitivity to predation risk in the context of mating. It has been shown in studies on guppies and jumping spiders that in response to altered female behaviors, which are adaptations to the unfavorable environment and a consequence of females' higher sensitivity to predator's presence as well as females' higher predation risk, males can adopt condition-dependent mating tactics. It appears that in such cases males do not modify their reproductive behavior directly in response to their own perception of predation risk, but indirectly in response to changes in female behavior induced by predator presence. It has also been recently shown in crabs that males can exploit female behavior by creating safer habitat spots, which increases the male mating success. Hence all the evidence suggests that males not only respond to female sensitivity to the natural variation in predation risk, but that males can also exploit female behavior by altering the environment. As a logical extension of these findings, we present a hypothesis that in certain conditions males can manipulate the environment in order to increase the predation risk and to induce female behaviors that enhance the male's mating success with the increased predation risk. We propose that such a manipulation to increase predation risk is expected to evolve in males of species with a strong sexual conflict and female-biased predation risk. Although empirical evidence has not been yet shown, initial observations in a water strider species in Korea, Gerris gracilicornis, seem to support this hypothesis.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.274-281
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• 2019

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni) infection from various jerky products in Korea. Methods: For the exposure assessment, the prevalence and predictive models of C. jejuni in the jerky and the temperature and time of the distribution and storage were investigated. In addition, the consumption amounts and frequencies of the products were also investigated. The data for C. jejuni for the prevalence, distribution temperature, distribution time, consumption amount, and consumption frequency were fitted with the @RISK fitting program to obtain appropriate probabilistic distributions. Subsequently, the dose-response models for Campylobacter were researched in the literature. Eventually, the distributions, predictive model, and dose-response model were used to make a simulation model with @RISK to estimate the risk of C. jejuni foodborne illness from the intake of jerky. Results: Among 275 jerky samples, there were no C. jejuni positive samples, and thus, the initial contamination level was statistically predicted with the RiskUniform distribution [RiskUniform (-2, 0.48)]. To describe the changes in the C. jejuni cell counts during distribution and storage, the developed predictive models with the Weibull model (primary model) and polynomial model (secondary model) were utilized. The appropriate probabilistic distribution was the BetaGeneral distribution, and it showed that the average jerky consumption was 51.83 g/d with a frequency of 0.61%. The developed simulation model from this data series and the dose-response model (Beta Poisson model) showed that the risk of C. jejuni foodborne illness per day per person from jerky consumption was $1.56{\times}10^{-12}$. Conclusion: This result suggests that the risk of C. jejuni in jerky could be considered low in Korea.

• 한국식품위생안전성학회지
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.319-326
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• 1999

최근 국내에서는 Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes등의 미생물에 대한 건강위해성이 강조되면서 미생물 위해성평가에 대한 필요성이 제기되고 있고, U.S.FPA, U.S.DA, FAO/WHO를 비롯한 국제기구 및 외국 유관기관들에서도 미생물 위해성평가 방법을 식품관리에 활용하고자 방법론 연구에 주력하고 있다. 미생물 위험성은 화학물질과 달리 인체건강에 대한 영향이 즉각적이고, 심각하게 나타나 정량적인 위해성평가가 용이하지 않고 유해화학물질과는 다른 평가방법이 요구된다. 식품중 미생물의 위해성평가는 크게 4단계로 구분되는데, 미생물관련질환 추세파악 및 미생물 관련질병에 관한 역학조사 등을 활용하는 위험성확인 단계와 실제 식품원료, 식품가공, 수송, 포장단계 중 식품의 물리적, 화학적 조건에 따른 미생물 변화를 고려하여 식품중 미생물에 대한 노출을 정량화하는 노출평가 단계, 미생물의 용량에 따른 질병발생에 근거하여 용량-반응관계를 규명하는 용량-반응평가 단계, 규명된 모델을 활용하여 모든 평가결과를 통합함으로 위해 도치 예측과 불확실성 분석 등을 수행하는 위해도결정단계로 구성되어 있다. 미생물 용량-반응평가는 크게 비역치(Nonthreshold)와 역치(Threshold) 평가 방법론으로 구분되는데, 비역치 평가방법론은 단일 병원균이 감염을 일으킬 수 있다는 것과 감염을 일으킬 수 있는 확률이 독립적이라는 가정을 전제로 하고, 역치평가방법론은 미생물이 감염을 일으키기 위해서 각기 개별 역치가 존재하는데 어느 정도의 미생물수가 모여 서로 작용해야 독성유발물질을 만들어 낸다는 가정을 전제로 한다. 현재 받아들여지고 있는 비역치 모델로는 Exponential, Beta-poisson, Gompertz, Gamma-weibull 모델 등이 있으며, 역치모델로는 Log-normal, Log-logistic모델 등이 있다. 본 연구에서는 인체 volunteer자료를 활용하여 용량-반응자료를 입력하고 용량-반응자료를 토대로 적합한 수학적 모델을 찾아내어, 선별한 모델의 적합도 검정을 실시하는 방법론 연구를 실시하였으며, 노출평가 자료와 용량-반응평가 결과를 연계하여 위해도를 결정하는 과정에 대해 연구하였다 이 밖에도 모델(Food MicroModel)을 이용하여 식품의 염도, 수분활성도, 온도, pH등의 조건에 따른 미생물의 성장률, 사멸률 등 변화를 예측할 수 있는 방법론 연구를 통해 식품의 최적 보관 조건등을 찾아내는 방법을 습득하였다. 미생물 위해성평가는 외국에서도 아직 초기 연구단계에 있으며 현재로서 사후조사자료인 역학자료보다 건강한 성인남자를 대상으로 한 volunteer 자료를 우선적으로 활용하고 있으나 노약자나 민감그룹에 대한 실험은 현실적으로 불가능하여 동물실험을 이용한 평가방법을 연구중에 있다. 추후 연구방향으로는 국내 volunteer들을 대상으로 한 미생물별 용량-반응결과를 토대로 population sensitivity를 비교할 수 있는 기초자료를 확보함으로써 미생물에 대한 인구집단의 반응 민감성 차이를 비교하고 시료채취 후 즉각적인 실험실적 분석이 가능토록하여 정확한 인체노출평가를 수행함으로써 미생물 위해성평가방법론을 식품미생물관리에 적용하는 것이다.