• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.29-45
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• 2012

Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.39 no.12 s.269
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• pp.879-890
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• 2006

Background: The dysfunction of multiple organs is found to be caused by reactive oxygen species as a major modulator of microvascular injury after hemorrhagic shock. Hemorrhagic shock, one of many causes inducing acute lung injury, is associated with increase in alveolocapillary permeability and characterized by edema, neutrophil infiltration, and hemorrhage in the interstitial and alveolar space. Aggressive and rapid fluid resuscitation potentially might increased the risk of pulmonary dysfunction by the interstitial edema. Therefore, in order to improve the pulmonary dysfunction induced by hemorrhagic shock, the present study was attempted to investigate how to reduce the inflammatory responses and edema in lung. Material and Method: Male Sprague-Dawley rats, weight 300 to 350 gm were anesthetized with ketamine(7 mg/kg) intramuscular Hemorrhagic Shock(HS) was induced by withdrawal of 3 mL/100 g over 10 min. through right jugular vein. Mean arterial pressure was then maintained at $35{\sim}40$ mmHg by further blood withdrawal. At 60 min. after HS, the shed blood and Ringer's solution or 5% albumin was infused to restore mean carotid arterial pressure over 80 mmHg. Rats were divided into three groups according to rectal temperature level($37^{\circ}C$[normothermia] vs $33^{\circ}C$[mild hypothermia]) and resuscitation fluid(lactate Ringer's solution vs 5% albumin solution). Group I consisted of rats with the normothermia and lactate Ringer's solution infusion. Group II consisted of rats with the systemic hypothermia and lactate Ringer's solution infusion. Group III consisted of rats with the systemic hypothermia and 5% albumin solution infusion. Hemodynamic parameters(heart rate, mean carotid arterial pressure), metabolism, and pulmonary tissue damage were observed for 4 hours. Result: In all experimental groups including 6 rats in group I, totally 26 rats were alive in 3rd stage. However, bleeding volume of group I in first stage was $3.2{\pm}0.5$ mL/100 g less than those of group II($3.9{\pm}0.8$ mL/100 g) and group III($4.1{\pm}0.7$ mL/100 g). Fluid volume infused in 2nd stage was $28.6{\pm}6.0$ mL(group I), $20.6{\pm}4.0$ mL(group II) and $14.7{\pm}2.7$ mL(group III), retrospectively in which there was statistically a significance between all groups(p<0.05). Plasma potassium level was markedly elevated in comparison with other groups(II and III), whereas glucose level was obviously reduced in 2nd stage of group I. Level of interleukine-8 in group I was obviously higher than that of group II or III(p<0.05). They were $1.834{\pm}437$ pg/mL(group I), $1,006{\pm}532$ pg/mL(group II), and $764{\pm}302$ pg/mL(group III), retrospectively. In histologic score, the score of group III($1.6{\pm}0.6$) was significantly lower than that of group I($2.8{\pm}1.2$)(p<0.05). Conclusion: In pressure-controlled hemorrhagic shock model, it is suggested that hypothermia might inhibit the direct damage of ischemic tissue through reduction of basic metabolic rate in shock state compared to normothermia. It seems that hypothermia should be benefit to recovery pulmonary function by reducing replaced fluid volume, inhibiting anti-inflammatory agent(IL-8) and leukocyte infiltration in state of ischemia-reperfusion injury. However, if is considered that other changes in pulmonary damage and inflammatory responses might induce by not only kinds of fluid solutions but also hypothermia, and that the detailed evaluation should be study.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.143-156
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• 2005

Background: The best dose-fractionation regimen of the definitive radiotherapy for cervix cancer remains to be clearly determined. It seems to be partially attributed to the complexity of the affecting factors and the lack of detailed information on external and intra-cavitary fractionation. To find optimal practice guidelines, our experiences of the combination of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-ICBT) were reviewed with detailed information of the various treatment parameters obtained from a large cohort of women treated homogeneously at a single institute. Materials and Methods: The subjects were 743 cervical cancer patients (Stage IB 198, IIA 77, IIB 364, IIIA 7, IIIB 89 and IVA 8) treated by radiotherapy alone, between 1990 and 1996. A total external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose of $23.4\~59.4$ Gy (Median 45.0) was delivered to the whole pelvis. High-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-IBT) was also peformed using various fractionation schemes. A Midline block (MLB) was initiated after the delivery of $14.4\~43.2$ Gy (Median 36.0) of EBRT in 495 patients, while In the other 248 patients EBRT could not be used due to slow tumor regression or the huge initial bulk of tumor. The point A, actual bladder & rectal doses were individually assessed in all patients. The biologically effective dose (BED) to the tumor ($\alpha/\beta$=10) and late-responding tissues ($\alpha/\beta$=3) for both EBRT and HDR-ICBT were calculated. The total BED values to point A, the actual bladder and rectal reference points were the summation of the EBRT and HDR-ICBT. In addition to all the details on dose-fractionation, the other factors (i.e. the overall treatment time, physicians preference) that can affect the schedule of the definitive radiotherapy were also thoroughly analyzed. The association between MD-BED $Gy_3$ and the risk of complication was assessed using serial multiple logistic regression models. The associations between R-BED $Gy_3$ and rectal complications and between V-BED $Gy_3$ and bladder complications were assessed using multiple logistic regression models after adjustment for age, stage, tumor size and treatment duration. Serial Coxs proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the relative risks of recurrence due to MD-BED $Gy_{10}$, and the treatment duration. Results: The overall complication rate for RTOG Grades $1\~4$ toxicities was $33.1\%$. The 5-year actuarial pelvic control rate for ail 743 patients was $83\%$. The midline cumulative BED dose, which is the sum of external midline BED and HDR-ICBT point A BED, ranged from 62.0 to 121.9 $Gy_{10}$ (median 93.0) for tumors and from 93.6 to 187.3 $Gy_3$ (median 137.6) for late responding tissues. The median cumulative values of actual rectal (R-BED $Gy_3$) and bladder Point BED (V-BED $Gy_3$) were 118.7 $Gy_3$ (range $48.8\~265.2$) and 126.1 $Gy_3$ (range: $54.9\~267.5$), respectively. MD-BED $Gy_3$ showed a good correlation with rectal (p=0.003), but not with bladder complications (p=0.095). R-BED $Gy_3$ had a very strong association (p=<0.0001), and was more predictive of rectal complications than A-BED $Gy_3$. B-BED $Gy_3$ also showed significance in the prediction of bladder complications in a trend test (p=0.0298). No statistically significant dose-response relationship for pelvic control was observed. The Sandwich and Continuous techniques, which differ according to when the ICR was inserted during the EBRT and due to the physicians preference, showed no differences in the local control and complication rates; there were also no differences in the 3 vs. 5 Gy fraction size of HDR-ICBT. Conclusion: The main reasons optimal dose-fractionation guidelines are not easily established is due to the absence of a dose-response relationship for tumor control as a result of the high-dose gradient of HDR-ICBT, individual differences In tumor responses to radiation therapy and the complexity of affecting factors. Therefore, in our opinion, there is a necessity for individualized tailored therapy, along with general guidelines, in the definitive radiation treatment for cervix cancer. This study also demonstrated the strong predictive value of actual rectal and bladder reference dosing therefore, vaginal gauze packing might be very Important. To maintain the BED dose to less than the threshold resulting in complication, early midline shielding, the HDR-ICBT total dose and fractional dose reduction should be considered.