• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk modelling

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Efficient Construction Method of Topographic Data for Flood Mapping Using Digital Map (수치지형도를 활용한 홍수지도 제작용 지형자료의 효과적인 구축방법 연구)

  • Lee, Geun-Sang;Koh, Deuk-Koo;Kim, Woo-Gu
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.52-61
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    • 2004
  • Korea Water Resources Corporation carried out LiDAR survey to construct detailed terrain data for flood mapping and it is expected that much money is required in flood mapping of all over the country. Therefore, it is desirable to use NGIS digital map to construct preliminary modelling data for selection of flood mapping area. And the analysis of DEM error with respect to scale of digital map is necessary for the sake of applying digital map as the input data of flood mapping. We compared DEM from digital map with DEM from LiDAR survey. Especially we analyzed DEM error characteristics that is occurred with respect to the interpolation method that is used to construct DEM from TIN of digital map. As a result of analysis, digital map(1:1,000) showed smaller error than digital map(1:5,000) and DEM applying linear interpolation showed smaller error than DEM applying quintic interpolation. Especially, variation of DEM error by cell resolution was evaluated as very slight because urban district was composed of gentle slope.

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Contact forces generated by fallen debris

  • Sun, Jing;Lam, Nelson;Zhang, Lihai;Gad, Emad;Ruan, Dong
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.589-603
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    • 2014
  • Expressions for determining the value of the impact force as reported in the literature and incorporated into code provisions are essentially quasi-static forces for emulating deflection. Quasi-static forces are not to be confused with contact force which is generated in the vicinity of the point of contact between the impactor and target, and contact force is responsible for damage featuring perforation and denting. The distinction between the two types of forces in the context of impact actions is not widely understood and few guidelines have been developed for their estimation. The value of the contact force can be many times higher than that of the quasi-static force and lasts for a matter of a few milli-seconds whereas the deflection of the target can evolve over a much longer time span. The stiffer the impactor the shorter the period of time to deliver the impulsive action onto the target and consequently the higher the peak value of the contact force. This phenomenon is not taken into account by any contemporary codified method of modelling impact actions which are mostly based on the considerations of momentum and energy principles. Computer software such as LS-DYNA has the capability of predicting contact force but the dynamic stiffness parameters of the impactor material which is required for input into the program has not been documented for debris materials. The alternative, direct, approach for an accurate evaluation of the damage potential of an impact scenario is by physical experimentation. However, it can be difficult to extrapolate observations from laboratory testings to behaviour in real scenarios when the underlying principles have not been established. Contact force is also difficult to measure. Thus, the amount of useful information that can be retrieved from isolated impact experiments to guide design and to quantify risk is very limited. In this paper, practical methods for estimating the amount of contact force that can be generated by the impact of a fallen debris object are introduced along with the governing principles. An experimental-calibration procedure forming part of the assessment procedure has also been verified.

Analyzing the Relationship between Dynamic Capability of Project-Based Organization and the Competitive Advantage in the E&C Companies (프로젝트 조직의 동적역량과 건설기업 경쟁우위와의 상관관계 분석)

  • Jin, Sangjoon;Oh, Minjeong;Kim, Seungchul
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2019
  • Since the beginning of a new century, many Korean construction and engineering companies are facing a very dynamic and fast changing business environment which includes severe competition, higher risk, economic depression, declining revenues and profits, etc. In order to cope with these challenges, they need to secure special capabilities to actively adapt to the paradigm changes. One of those capabilities could be project management capability which allows us to manage organizational resources dynamically and integratively based on project portfolio management concept. The objective of this study is to investigate how the dynamic capability of a project-based organization to control the resource affects the firm performance and the competitive advantages. Data was collected from the construction and engineering companies in South Korea by using survey questionnaire, and analyzed for empirical tests by using statistical methods such as structural equation modelling and path analysis. The results showed that the organizational resources, if they had the VRIN characteristics, would have positive impacts on creating the dynamic capabilities for project organization. In turn, the dynamic capabilities of a project organization would have impacts on improving business performance and creating competitive advantages. Also, it was found that the organizational resources may have direct impact on business performance and competitive advantages. The academic contribution of this study is that it attempts to integrate resource based view and the dynamic capability theory about creating competitive advantages for project based organization. This study also provided practical implications to the companies in construction industry by showing how to use organizational resources strategically to create competitive advantages.

Factors Affecting Consumers' Acceptance of e-Commerce Consumer Credit Service: Multiple Group Path Analysis by Naver Shopping and Coupang (이커머스 후불결제(BNPL) 수용에 영향을 미치는 요인: 네이버쇼핑과 쿠팡 간 다중집단 비교)

  • Kim, Su Jin;Mo, Jeonghoon
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.105-135
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    • 2022
  • As COVID-19 has led to a surge in e-commerce Buy Now Pay Later(BNPL) has become preferred choice among millennials. In Korea Coupang followed by Naver Pay offers a deferred payment, aiming to create customer lock-in effect, save credit card processing fee and lay the groundwork for entering into new financial services. However the literature related to the influential factors of customers' usage intention toward a deferred payment is scarce. For the study, a multi-group analysis was carried out to find differences between Naver shopping and Coupang. The results revealed that the important factors that affect a deferred payment adoption were compatibility, impulsive buying tendency in Naver shopping, whereas compatibility, relative advantage, additional value in Coupang(listed in order of most important). In addition, impulsive buying tendency had a positive effect on adoption intention in Naver shopping and on perceived risk in Coupang. The results imply that Naver shopping need to focus on managing delinquency while Coupang should provide sufficient information on how late fees and credit rating downgrade work and try not to make a deferred payment option stand out. In order to increase adoption rate it is recommendable to narrow down target segment of a deferred payment and expand it to a specialized vertical such as travel.

A Review of Quantitative Landslide Susceptibility Analysis Methods Using Physically Based Modelling (물리사면모델을 활용한 정량적 산사태 취약성 분석기법 리뷰)

  • Park, Hyuck-Jin;Lee, Jung-Hyun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2022
  • Every year landslides cause serious casualties and property damages around the world. As the accurate prediction of landslides is important to reduce the fatalities and economic losses, various approaches have been developed to predict them. Prediction methods can be divided into landslide susceptibility analysis, landslide hazard analysis and landslide risk analysis according to the type of the conditioning factors, the predicted level of the landslide dangers, and whether the expected consequence cased by landslides were considered. Landslide susceptibility analyses are mainly based on the available landslide data and consequently, they predict the likelihood of landslide occurrence by considering factors that can induce landslides and analyzing the spatial distribution of these factors. Various qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Recently, quantitative susceptibility analyses have predominantly employed the physically based model due to high predictive capacity. This is because the physically based approaches use physical slope model to analyze slope stability regardless of prior landslide occurrence. This approach can also reproduce the physical processes governing landslide occurrence. This review examines physically based landslide susceptibility analysis approaches.

A Comparative Study on Failure Pprediction Models for Small and Medium Manufacturing Company (중소제조기업의 부실예측모형 비교연구)

  • Hwangbo, Yun;Moon, Jong Geon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2016
  • This study has analyzed predication capabilities leveraging multi-variate model, logistic regression model, and artificial neural network model based on financial information of medium-small sized companies list in KOSDAQ. 83 delisted companies from 2009 to 2012 and 83 normal companies, i.e. 166 firms in total were sampled for the analysis. Modelling with training data was mobilized for 100 companies inlcuding 50 delisted ones and 50 normal ones at random out of the 166 companies. The rest of samples, 66 companies, were used to verify accuracies of the models. Each model was designed by carrying out T-test with 79 financial ratios for the last 5 years and identifying 9 significant variables. T-test has shown that financial profitability variables were major variables to predict a financial risk at an early stage, and financial stability variables and financial cashflow variables were identified as additional significant variables at a later stage of insolvency. When predication capabilities of the models were compared, for training data, a logistic regression model exhibited the highest accuracy while for test data, the artificial neural networks model provided the most accurate results. There are differences between the previous researches and this study as follows. Firstly, this study considered a time-series aspect in light of the fact that failure proceeds gradually. Secondly, while previous studies constructed a multivariate discriminant model ignoring normality, this study has reviewed the regularity of the independent variables, and performed comparisons with the other models. Policy implications of this study is that the reliability for the disclosure documents is important because the simptoms of firm's fail woule be shown on financial statements according to this paper. Therefore institutional arragements for restraing moral laxity from accounting firms or its workers should be strengthened.

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Usefulness of Data Mining in Criminal Investigation (데이터 마이닝의 범죄수사 적용 가능성)

  • Kim, Joon-Woo;Sohn, Joong-Kweon;Lee, Sang-Han
    • Journal of forensic and investigative science
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.5-19
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    • 2006
  • Data mining is an information extraction activity to discover hidden facts contained in databases. Using a combination of machine learning, statistical analysis, modeling techniques and database technology, data mining finds patterns and subtle relationships in data and infers rules that allow the prediction of future results. Typical applications include market segmentation, customer profiling, fraud detection, evaluation of retail promotions, and credit risk analysis. Law enforcement agencies deal with mass data to investigate the crime and its amount is increasing due to the development of processing the data by using computer. Now new challenge to discover knowledge in that data is confronted to us. It can be applied in criminal investigation to find offenders by analysis of complex and relational data structures and free texts using their criminal records or statement texts. This study was aimed to evaluate possibile application of data mining and its limitation in practical criminal investigation. Clustering of the criminal cases will be possible in habitual crimes such as fraud and burglary when using data mining to identify the crime pattern. Neural network modelling, one of tools in data mining, can be applied to differentiating suspect's photograph or handwriting with that of convict or criminal profiling. A case study of in practical insurance fraud showed that data mining was useful in organized crimes such as gang, terrorism and money laundering. But the products of data mining in criminal investigation should be cautious for evaluating because data mining just offer a clue instead of conclusion. The legal regulation is needed to control the abuse of law enforcement agencies and to protect personal privacy or human rights.

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Scale and Scope Economies and Prospect for the Korea's Banking Industry (우리나라 은행산업(銀行産業)의 효율성분석(效率性分析)과 제도개선방안(制度改善方案))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.109-153
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    • 1992
  • This paper estimates a translog cost function for the Korea's banking industry and derives various implications on the prospect for the Korean banking structure in the future based on the estimated efficiency indicators for the banking sector. The Korean banking industry is permitted to operate trust business to the full extent and the security business to a limited extent, while it is formally subjected to the strict, specialized banking system. Security underwriting and investment businesses are allowed in a very limited extent only for stocks and bonds of maturity longer than three year and only up to 100 percent of the bank paid-in capital. Until the end of 1991, the ceiling was only up to 25 percent of the total balance of the demand deposits. However, they are prohibited from the security brokerage business. While the in-house integration of security businesses with the traditional business of deposit and commercial lending is restrictively regulated as such, Korean banks can enter the security business by establishing subsidiaries in the industry. This paper, therefore, estimates the efficiency indicators as well as the cost functions, identifying the in-house integrated trust business and security investment business as important banking activities, for various cases where both the production and the intermediation function approaches in modelling the financial intermediaries are separately applied, and the banking businesses of deposit, lending and security investment as one group and the trust businesses as another group are separately and integrally analyzed. The estimation results of the efficiency indicators for various cases are summarized in Table 1 and Table 2. First, security businesses exhibit economies of scale but also economies of scope with traditional banking activities, which implies that in-house integration of the banking and security businesses may not be a nonoptimal banking structure. Therefore, this result further implies that the transformation of Korea's banking system from the current, specialized system to the universal banking system will not impede the improvement of the banking industry's efficiency. Second, the lending businesses turn out to be subjected to diseconomies of scale, while exhibiting unclear evidence for economies of scope. In sum, it implies potential efficiency gain of the continued in-house integration of the lending activity. Third, the continued integration of the trust businesses seems to contribute to improving the efficiency of the banking businesses, since the trust businesses exhibit economies of scope. Fourth, deposit services and fee-based activities, such as foreign exchange and credit card businesses, exhibit economies of scale but constant returns to scope, which implies, the possibility of separating those businesses from other banking and trust activities. The recent trend of the credit card business being operated separately from other banking activities by an independent identity in Korea as well as in the global banking market seems to be consistent with this finding. Then, how can the possibility of separating deposit services from the remaining activities be interpreted? If one insists a strict definition of commercial banking that is confined to deposit and commercial lending activities, separating the deposit service will suggest a resolution or a disappearance of banking, itself. Recently, however, there has been a suggestion that separating banks' deposit and lending activities by allowing a depository institution which specialize in deposit taking and investing deposit fund only in the safest securities such as government securities to administer the deposit activity will alleviate the risk of a bank run. This method, in turn, will help improve the safety of the payment system (Robert E. Litan, What should Banks Do? Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institution, 1987). In this context, the possibility of separating the deposit activity will imply that a new type of depository institution will arise naturally without contradicting the efficiency of the banking businesses, as the size of the banking market grows in the future. Moreover, it is also interesting to see additional evidences confirming this statement that deposit taking and security business are cost complementarity but deposit taking and lending businesses are cost substitute (see Table 2 for cost complementarity relationship in Korea's banking industry). Finally, it has been observed that the Korea's banking industry is lacking in the characteristics of natural monopoly. Therefore, it may not be optimal to encourage the merger and acquisition in the banking industry only for the purpose of improving the efficiency.

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