• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk mapping

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Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertainty Sources in Flood Inundation Mapping by using the First Order Approximation Method (FOA를 이용한 홍수범람도 구축에서 불확실성 요소의 민감도 분석)

  • Jung, Younghun;Park, Jeryang;Yeo, Kyu Dong;Lee, Seung Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2293-2302
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    • 2013
  • Flood inundation map has been used as a fundamental information in flood risk management. However, there are various sources of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping, which can be another risk in preventing damage from flood. Therefore, it is necessary to remove or reduce uncertainty sources to improve the accuracy of flood inundation maps. However, the entire removal of uncertainty source may be impossible and inefficient due to limitations of knowledge and finance. Sensitivity analysis of uncertainty sources allows an efficient flood risk management by considering various conditions in flood inundation mapping because an uncertainty source under different conditions may propagate in different ways. The objectives of this study are (1) to perform sensitivity analysis of uncertainty sources by different conditions on flood inundation map using the FOA method and (2) to find a major contributor to a propagated uncertainty in the flood inundation map in Flatrock at Columbus, U.S.A. Result of this study illustrates that an uncertainty in a variable is differently propagated to flood inundation map by combination with other uncertainty sources. Moreover, elevation error was found to be the most sensitive to uncertainty in the flood inundation map of the study reach.

The Effectiveness of Mapping Biopsy in Patients with Extramammary Paget's Disease

  • Kim, Byung Jun;Park, Shin Ki;Chang, Hak
    • Archives of Plastic Surgery
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.753-758
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    • 2014
  • Background Extramammary Paget's disease (EMPD) is an intraepithelial carcinoma usually occurring on the skin or mucosa of the perineum. Clinically, it resembles eczema or dermatitis, and misdiagnosis and treatment delays are common. The treatment of choice for EMPD is a wide excision with adequate margins. Wide excision with intraoperative frozen biopsy and Mohs micrographic surgery are common methods; however, these are associated with a high recurrence rate and long operation time, respectively. Methods Between January 2010 and June 2013, 21 patients diagnosed with EMPD underwent mapping biopsy. Biopsy specimens were collected from at least 10 areas, 2 cm from the tumor margin. When the specimens were positive for malignancy, additional mapping biopsy was performed around the biopsy site of the positive result, and continued until no cancer cells were found. Based on the results, excision margins and reconstruction plans were established preoperatively. Results The patients (18 male, 3 female) had a mean age of 66.5 years (range, 50-82 years). Almost all cases involved in the perineal area, except one case of axillary involvement. Permanent biopsy revealed one case (4.8%) of positive cancer cells on the resection margin, in which additional mapping biopsy and re-operation was performed. At the latest follow-up (mean, 27.4 months; range, 12-53 months), recurrence had not occurred. Conclusions Preoperative mapping biopsy enables accurate resection margins and a preoperative reconstructing plan. Additionally, it reduces the operation time and risk of recurrence. Accordingly, it represents an effective alternative to Mohs micrographic surgery and wide excision with intraoperative frozen biopsy.

Natech Risk Assessment of Chemical Facilities in the Event of Earthquake in Korea using RAPID-N (RAPID-N을 이용한 국내 지진 발생 시 화학시설 Natech 위험성 평가)

  • Park, Jaehyuk;Yeon, Eungjin;Lee, Hak Tae;Jung, Seungho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2019
  • Accidents occurring due to natural disasters in chemical process facilities where technologies are concentrated can cause secondary damage. The concept of the relationship between natural disasters and highly intensive technologies has evolved into the Natech (Natural Hazards Triggered Technological Disaster) research. Currently, the number of earthquakes is increasing all over the Korean peninsula. To assess the risk of Natech when an earthquake has occurred in South Korea, the Rapid Natech Risk Assessment Tool (RAPID-N) developed by the European Commission's Joint Research Center (EC JRC) was used in the present study. The RAPID-N can be used for Natech risk assessment based on mapping and can be utilized for sufficient preparation for reduction of the effects of Natech accidents. A total of 261 chemical facilities actually existing in Pohang were initially analyzed to select eight facilities and the Pohang earthquake that occurred in 2017 was implemented in the RAPID-N utilizing the shake map. High risk areas were selected through Natech risk assessments for the selected eight work places and countermeasures for the areas were suggested. High risk areas exist depending on the location, since the damage influence ranges could be overlapped and each chemical facility has an independent probability of Natech. Therefore, studies on Natech emergency plans and emergency evacuation routes should be actively conducted considering such high risk areas. The present study was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of Natech risk assessment in South Korea through the RAPID-N. These findings can be used as a reference material to lay a foundation for Natech risk assessment and related policies in South Korea.

A Review and Analysis of Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment Tools and Applications (지진 재해 위험도 평가 분석 도구 사례 분석 연구)

  • Chai, Su-Seong;Suh, Dongjun
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.899-906
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    • 2018
  • In the entire process of disaster management, it is very significant to construct related information as well as perform quantitative assessment of damage losses with respect to minimizing the effect of disasters. Many countries have paid much attention not only to studying risk assessment methodologies including constructing inventories, hazard mapping, vulnerability assessment and direct/indirect damage loss estimation, but also to developing risk analysis tools investigated in this paper. We conducted comparison studies of representative earthquake damage risk analysis tools, and the result of this study is able to provide useful information to decision makers and researchers who can contribute to development of effective disaster management.

Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model (공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho;Chung, C.F.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

A GIS-Based Mapping to Identify Locations at Risk for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Outbreak in Korea (지리정보시스템 기반의 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 발생 위험지도 구축)

  • Lee, Gyoungju;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.146-151
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    • 2017
  • Six major outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurred from 2003 to 2016 in Korea. Epidemiological investigations of each outbreak revealed that migratory birds were the primary source of the HPAI virus. During the last five years, the geographic transmission pattern of domestic HPAI seems to have extended from local to nationwide; therefore, it is necessary to identify specific locations in which poultry farms are at elevated risk for HPAI outbreak to enable targeted surveillance and other mitigation strategies. Here, a geographical information system (GIS)-based analysis was used to identify geographic areas at high risk for future HPAI incidents in Korea based on historical outbreak data collected between December 2003 and April 2016. To accomplish this, seven criteria were used to identify areas at high-risk for HPAI occurrence. The first three criteria were based on defined spatial criteria buffering of 200 bird migration sites to some defined extents and the historical incidence of HPAI outbreaks at the buffering sites. The remaining criteria were based on combined attribute information such as number of birds or farms at district levels. Based on the criteria established for this study, the most-likely areas at higher risk for HPAI outbreak were located in Chungcheong, Jeolla, Gyeonggi, and Gyeongnam provinces, which are densely populated poultry regions considered major poultry-production areas that are located along bird migration sites. The proportion of areas at risk for HPAI occurrence ranged from 4.5% to 64.9%. For the worst criteria, all nine provinces, including Jeju Island, were found to be at risk of HPAI. The results of this study indicate that the number of poultry farms at risk for HPAI outbreaks is largely underestimated by current regulatory risk assessment procedures conducted for biosecurity authorization. The HPAI risk map generated in this study will enable easy use of information by policy makers to identify surveillance zones and employ targeted surveillance to reduce the impact of HPAI transmission.

Case Study of Slope Investigation on the Cretaceous Sedimentary Rocks Using the Geological Cross-Sections

  • Ihm, Myeong-Hyeok;Kim, Woo-Seok;Kwon, Oil
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.463-478
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    • 2021
  • The subjects of the study are the sedimentary rock slope of the Mesozoic Gyeongsang Supergroup, which has a high risk of failure. The orientation of the slope-face represents a variety of changing characteristics. The rocks of the slope shall be sandstone, siltstone and dacite, and discontinuities shall develop beddings, shear joints, extension joints, and dacite dyke boundary planes. The type and scale of failure varies depending on the type of rock and the strike/dip of the discontinuities, but the toppling failure prevails. Based on the face-mapping data, SMR, physical and mechanical testing of rocks, analysis and review of the stereonet projections and the critical equilibrium analysis, all four representative sections required a countermeasure method because the acceptable safety factor during dry and rainy seasons were far below Fs = 1.5 and Fs = 1.2. After applying the countermeasure method, both the dry and wet conditions of the slope exceeded the allowable safety factor. In particular, the face-mapping data of the slope-face, the geological cross-sections of several representative sections perpendicular to the slope-face, and the critical equilibrium analysis and the presentation of countermeasure methods that have been reviewed based on them are expected to be reasonable tools for the slope stability. In addition, it will be possible to use it as basic data for performance evaluation for slope maintenance.

A Study on the Development of Regional Risk Mapping Program for Marine Oil Spills (해역별 기름유출사고 위험도 매핑 프로그램 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Jung-Hwan;Yun, Jong-Hwui
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.423-429
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    • 2016
  • A study was conducted to analyze the oil spill dynamic state using system dynamics method, and to developed regional risk program based on oil spill history for better judgement of the situation at the early stage of oil spill. Results were obtained as follows: Firstly, various variables were calculated by a score based on raw data of oil spill history in Korea. Regional oil spill risk was also calculated in a quantitative way. Secondly, calculated regional oil spill risk was analyzed and programmed with a help of smart-device for better use. Thirdly, comparison of oil spill risk between regions became possible and regional oil spill risk program proved to be useful in prompt decision under urgent situation in response to oil spill at sea. Convenient and quick oil spill risk without special restrictions have been able to determine. and it can help in anticipative preparation (strategy) for oil spills.

Design and Implementation of Community-based Hazard Mapping Support System Based on Mobile Cloud in Traditional Towns with Local Heritage

  • Min, Byung-won
    • Journal of Platform Technology
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2018
  • This paper describes the design and trial development of a system that supports continuous hazard mapping by local residents in their daily life. We performed an interview survey to design our system in a model traditional town in Saga Prefecture, Japan. The results show that despite continued efforts, many practical problems remain and residents feel unsafe. Considering these results, we designed and developed a unique information and communication technology-based support system that contributes to community-based disaster prevention and reduction. The continuous resident participation and posting design are the core concept for our community-based approach. Our system continues to support making a hazard map by integrating the community-based hazard information. Local residents register information (disaster types, risk level, photographs, comments, positional information) about locations that could be dangerous in a disaster. In addition, our system enables information sharing through a Web server. We expect that this information sharing will allow local hazard information for each district to be used.

Recent Advances in Sheep Genome Mapping

  • Crawford, A.M.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.12 no.7
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    • pp.1129-1134
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    • 1999
  • The rapid development of the sheep genetic linkage map over the last five years has given us the ability to follow the inheritance of chromosomal regions. Initially this powerful resource was used to find markers linked to monogenic traits but there is now increasing interest in using the genetic linkage map to define the complex of genes that control multigenic production traits. Of particular interest are those production traits that are difficult to measure and select for using classical quantitative genetic approaches. These include resistance to disease where a disease challenge (necessary for selection) poses too much risk to valuable stud animals and meat and carcass qualities which can be measured only after the animal has been slaughtered. The goal for the new millennium will be to fully characterise the genetic basis of multigenic production traits. The genetic linkage map is a vital tool required to achieve this.