• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회/대한산업공학회 2003년도 춘계공동학술대회
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• pp.620-627
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• 2003

The real option pricing theory has emerged as the new investment decision-making techniques superceding the traditional discounted cash flow techniques and thus has greatly received muck attention from academics and practitioners in these days the theory has been widely applied to a variety of corporate strategic projects such as a new drug R&D, an internet start-up. an advanced manufacturing system. and so on A lot of people who are interested in the real option pricing theory complain that it is difficult to understand the true meaning of the real option value. though. One of the most conspicuous reasons for the complaint may be due to the fact that there exit many different ways to calculate the real options value in this paper, we will present a replicating portfolio method. a risk-neutral probability method. a risk-adjusted discount rate method (quasi capital asset pricing method). and an opportunity cost concept-based method under the conditions of a binomial lattice option pricing theory.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.9-16
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• 2016

The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-34
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• 2020

Purpose - In this study, we investigate determinants of hedging with derivatives and its effect on firm value and firm risk for Korean firms. Design/methodology - To avoid the endogeneity problem pointed out in previous studies, we use a two-stage analysis by using gains and losses from derivatives as instrument variable for hedging with derivatives. Findings - Our analysis on the determinants of hedging shows that firms that are more leveraged and less profitable, and with more growth opportunities are likely to hedge through derivatives. Additionally, large firms, firms less diversified into industry, and firms more diversified geographically are likely to use derivatives. Our two-stage analysis shows that indicators of hedging with derivatives have an insignificant effect on firm value, and the indicator of futures/forwards use and of swaps use have significant negative effect on firm value. Whereas, the extent of hedging with derivatives has positive effect on firm value for all types of foreign currency derivatives, which suggests that moderately low hedgers use derivatives inefficiently, but extensive hedgers use derivatives properly. With regard to firm risk, hedging with derivatives increases market-based risk, but decreases accounting-based risk. Thus, we conclude that Korean firms use derivatives to manage operational volatility rather than to manage market risk, and accounting-based risk reduction through hedging is not directly translated into higher firm value. Originality/value - This is not the first study to investigate hedging behavior of Korean firms, but the sample period that that this study analyzed is the longest and various method are used to control the endogeneity problem. We investigate not only total foreign currency derivatives but also by types of derivatives, including futures/forwards, options, and swaps.

• 대한의용생체공학회:의공학회지
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2023

With the announcement of MEDICAL DEVICE REGULATION 2017/745 (MDR) on April 5 2017, medical device manufacturers shall apply ISO 14971:2019 (3^rd) revised in December 2019. However, there is not much related information and guidance available to medical device manufacturers, especially single use medical device. Risk management process basically follow 5 steps which are Risk Analysis, Risk Evaluation, Risk Control, Evaluation of overall residual risk and post-production activities. The purpose of this study is to provide a guidance of from risk analysis with Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) table to overall residual risk evaluation for the single use medical device and to reflect it in a Periodic Safety Update Reports (PSUR) to satisfy with MDR requirements with single use medical device which are widely used and manufactured FDA class 2 or CE class IIb as examples. For this study, single use medical device manufacturer can adopt ISO 14971:2019 in accordance with MDR requirements and it can be extended to the PSUR. But there are still limitations to adopt to the all-single use medical device especially high class, private device and implantable device. So, Competent Authority (CA) shall publish more guidance for the single use medical device.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.159-168
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• 2019

본 연구는 수중활동에서 나타나는 인체의 생리적 변화와 알코올 섭취로 인한 생리적 변화를 살펴보고 알코올 섭취가 스쿠버다이버에게 미치는 영향을 규명하는데 그 목적이 있다. 미국 내부통제연구소위원회의 내부통제 프레임워크를 기초로 본 연구에 적합하도록 새롭게 정립한 '리스크 평가 및 분석(RAA, risk assessment and analysis)' 기법을 활용하여 알코올 섭취 전과 후의 리스크 분석을 실시하였다. RAA기법은 리스크 간 상관관계를 분석하는 1단계, 리스크를 정량화하고 리스크 데이터베이스를 구축하는 2단계, 그리고 이를 도식화하여 리스크맵을 분석하는 3단계로 이루어져 있다. RAA기법을 통해 알코올 섭취로 인한 수중활동의 리스크수준이 전반적으로 증가하여 고위험군의 비율이 높아진 것을 확인하였고 리스크수준의 정량화와 고위험군 분류를 통해 리스크관리 측면에서 우선통제대상을 지정할 수 있었다. 본 연구 결과는 알코올 섭취 후 행해지는 스쿠버다이빙의 위험성을 명확하게 알리고 이에 대한 스쿠버다이버들의 의식 개선을 도모하여 보다 안전한 스쿠버다이빙 환경을 제시할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• 정보보호학회논문지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.135-141
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• 2008

사이버 침해사고와 해킹의 위험성이 증대되고 있다. 이를 해결하기 위하여 정보보호기술중에서 보안위험분석 분야의 연구가 활발하게 이루어지고 있다. 하지만 평가를 위해서는 적지 않은 평가비용, 수개월의 평가기간, 평가 참여인원, 평가후의 보안대책비용, 보안관리비용에 대한 부담이 클 수밖에 없다. 이에 따라, 본 논문에서는 정량평가 형태의 위험분석평가를 프로젝트단위로 관리하며, 평가기간 및 적정 평가자 선정을 위한 사례기반추론알고리즘을 이용한 위험분석방법론 제안한다.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.449-461
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• 2023

The aim of this study was to conduct an ecosystem-based fishery risk assessment of tuna fisheries in the Western Indian Ocean. We selected gillnet, purse seine, hand line, baitboat, and longline fisheries as the target fisheries method, and selected longtail tuna (Thunnus tonggol), narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson), kawakawa (Euthynnus affinis), skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis), yellowfin tuna (T. albacares), bigeye tuna (T. obesus), albacore tuna (T. alalunga) and swordfish (Xiphias gladius) as the target species. The risk score for the size at the first capture in sustainability objective was high, especially, for the purse seine and baitboat fisheries using the fish aggregating devices (FADs). The risk score for the bycatch in the biodiversity objective was high for the gillnet fishery, and the gillnet fisheries using FADs showed high risks for the habitat quality objective due to the loss of the fishing gears. With regards to the socio-economic benefits objective, the risk score of the sales profits was low due to high sales of the tuna fisheries. The ecosystem risk score in the Western Indian Ocean was estimated to be moderate, although management is required for some of the indicators that have high-risk scores.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.247-253
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• 2009

The object of this paper is established for a paradigm for the organization. Although concerns on management get increased in these days, there is no general and systematic framework for a unified sector. Therefore this study proposes the new general and systematic framework for managing in organization, through applying Service-Engineering model. The new framework of this study provides the general sector of organization model, the method of analyzing BSC and RMS, and system model for Risk Management. Furthermore, this study suggests the practical ways of developing a paradigm.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.158-163
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• 2013

While job stress evaluations are reported in the recent surveys upon the nuclear power plants(NPPs), any significant advance in the types of questionnaires is not currently found. There are limitations to their usefulness as analytic tools for the management of safety resources in NPPs. Data mining(DM) has emerged as one of the key features for data computing and analysis to conduct a survey analysis. There are still limitations to its capability such as dimensionality associated with many survey questions and quality of information. Even though some survey methods may have significant advantages, often these methods do not provide enough evidence of causal relationships and the statistical inferences among a large number of input factors and responses. In order to address these limitations on the data computing and analysis capabilities, we propose an advanced procedure of survey analysis incorporating the DM method into a statistical analysis. The DM method can reduce dimensionality of risk factors, but DM method may not discuss the robustness of solutions, either by considering data preprocesses for outliers and missing values, or by considering uncontrollable noise factors. We propose three steps to address these limitations. The first step shows data mining with response surface method(RSM), to deal with specific situations by creating a new method called response surface data mining(RSDM). The second step follows the RSDM with detailed statistical relationships between the risk factors and the response of interest, and shows the demonstration the proposed RSDM can effectively find significant physical, psycho-social, and environmental risk factors by reducing the dimensionality with the process providing detailed statistical inferences. The final step suggest a robust stress management system which effectively manage job stress of the workers in NPPs as a part of a safety resource management using the surrogate variable concept.

• 정보보호학회논문지
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.1595-1606
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• 2015

위험분석은 위험을 허용 가능한 수준으로 관리하기 위한 방안을 수립하는 데 활용된다. 이러한 위험관리 의사결정에 있어서 위험의 시각화는 중요하다. 그러나 기존의 위험 시각화 방식은 위험의 요소들을 고려하여 입체적으로 위험을 시각화하는 데 있어서 한계를 지닌다. 본 논문에서는 기밀성, 무결성, 가용성 측면에서 개별적 혹은 종합적으로 위험을 표현할 수 있는 개선된 위험도 3차원 시각화 방법을 제시한다. 제안된 방법을 기업의 위험분석 평가에 적용하여 유효성을 검증한다. 제안된 시각화 방법은 내부통제를 위한 정보보호 의사결정 과정에 효과적으로 활용될 수 있다.