• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk interpretation model

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Verifying the factors on fear of crime applying risk interpretation model (위험해석모형을 적용한 범죄두려움의 영향요인 검증)

  • Song, Young-Nam;Lee, Seung-Woo
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.48
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    • pp.177-206
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the factors that affect the fear of crime by applying the risk interpretation model. Especially, whereas previous studies have not proven micro individual factor that the risk interpretation model had presented, This study includes micro individual elements such as neighborhood factor, perceived risk of crime, fears of crime as main variables. This study utilized secondary data of the National Crime Victimization Survey 2012, conducted by the Korean Institute of Criminology. In this study, multiple regression analysis of two stages and Sobel Test were conducted for verifying the individual influence of each independent variables and identifying the causal relationship between the variables set out in the risk analysis model. As the result, it appeared that the higher level of perceived risk of crime, neighborhood factor, crime experience, education, income cause the higher degree of the fear of crime. On the other hand, the lower degree of age was found to induce the higher level of the fear of crime. In addition, female showed the higher degree of the fear of crime than man. The causal relationship between the variables set out in the risk interpretation model was presented significantly in all variables, except for education.

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Research on Fear of Criminal Victim of the Elderly Based on Risk Interpretation Model (위험해석모델에 따른 노인의 범죄피해 두려움에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, So-Young;Kim, Chang-Ho
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.45
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    • pp.221-242
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    • 2015
  • Verification for the causality of factors affecting fear of criminal victim which has a bad influence on the senior's quality of life and directions to prevent the crimes against the elderly have been suggested. This study proves the applicability for fear of crime to old people especially based on risk interpretation model consisting of perceived risk of crime, behavioral response and fear of crime. Analysis results are as follows. First, disorder factors as social characteristics showed statistically significant influences on perceived risk of crime, behavioral response and fear of crime. Second, direct experienced crime victimization only affected perceived risk of crime while indirect experienced crime victimization had an effect on perceived risk of crime and fear of crime as well. Third, perceived risk of crime influenced fear of crime. Fourth, perceived risk of crime was concerned with fear of crime. Fifth, behavioral response was affiliated with fear of crime. These results reveal that risk interpretation model can be applied to senior's fear of crime. Moreover, disorder factor as social characteristic and experienced crime victimization as individual characteristic help the elderly perceive the risk of crime, bring behavioral response. Consequently, they play a role of factors affecting fear of crime. It is emphasized that support policy is required for the elderly who had experienced crime and stabilization of community environment if necessary to improve the quality of life.

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Development of Risk Evaluation Models for Railway Casualty Accidents (철도사상 사고위험도 평가 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Woo;Kim, Min-Su;Wang, Jong-Bae;Choi, Don-Bum
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1499-1504
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    • 2008
  • This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

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Estimation methods and interpretation of competing risk regression models (경쟁 위험 회귀 모형의 이해와 추정 방법)

  • Kim, Mijeong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1231-1246
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    • 2016
  • Cause-specific hazard model (Prentice et al., 1978) and subdistribution hazard model (Fine and Gray, 1999) are mostly used for the right censored survival data with competing risks. Some other models for survival data with competing risks have been subsequently introduced; however, those models have not been popularly used because the models cannot provide reliable statistical estimation methods or those are overly difficult to compute. We introduce simple and reliable competing risk regression models which have been recently proposed as well as compare their methodologies. We show how to use SAS and R for the data with competing risks. In addition, we analyze survival data with two competing risks using five different models.

Uncertainty Analysis and Application to Risk Assessment (위해성평가의 불확실도 분석과 활용방안 고찰)

  • Jo, Areum;Kim, Taksoo;Seo, JungKwan;Yoon, Hyojung;Kim, Pilje;Choi, Kyunghee
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.425-437
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: Risk assessment is a tool for predicting and reducing uncertainty related to the effects of future activities. Probability approaches are the main elements in risk assessment, but confusion about the interpretation and use of assessment factors often undermines the message of the analyses. The aim of this study is to provide a guideline for systematic reduction plans regarding uncertainty in risk assessment. Methods: Articles and reports were collected online using the key words "uncertainty analysis" on risk assessment. Uncertainty analysis was conducted based on reports focusing on procedures for analysis methods by the World Health Organization (WHO) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). In addition, case studies were performed in order to verify suggested methods qualitatively and quantitatively with exposure data, including measured data on toluene and styrene in residential spaces and multi-use facilities. Results: Based on an analysis of the data on uncertainty, three major factors including scenario, model, and parameters were identified as the main sources of uncertainty, and tiered approaches were determined. In the case study, the risk of toluene and styrene was evaluated and the most influential factors were also determined. Five reduction plans were presented: providing standard guidelines, using reliable exposure factors, possessing quality controls for analysis and scientific expertise, and introducing a peer review system. Conclusion: In this study, we established a method for reducing uncertainty by taking into account the major factors. Also, we showed a method for uncertainty analysis with tiered approaches. However, uncertainties are difficult to define because they are generated by many factors. Therefore, further studies are needed for the development of technical guidelines based on the representative scenario, model, and parameters developed in this study.

Probability Estimation of Snow Damage on Sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) Forest Stands by Logistic Regression Model in Toyama Prefecture, Japan

  • Kamo, Ken-Ichi;Yanagihara, Hirokazu;Kato, Akio;Yoshimoto, Atsushi
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.137-142
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we apply a logistic regression model to the data of snow damage on sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) occurred in Toyama prefecture (in Japan) in 2004 for estimating the risk probability. In order to specify the factors effecting snow damage, we apply a model selection procedure determining optimal subset of explanatory variables. In this process we consider the following 3 information criteria, 1) Akaike's information criterion, 2) Baysian information criterion, 3) Bias-corrected Akaike's information criterion. For the selected variables, we give a proper interpretation from the viewpoint of natural disaster.

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Development of a Landslide Hazard Prediction Model using GIS (GIS를 이용한 산사태 위험지 판정 모델의 개발)

  • Lee, Seung-Kii;Lee, Byung-Doo;Chung, Joo-Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2005
  • Based on the landslide hazard scoring system of Korea Forest Research Institute, a GIS model for predicting landslide hazards was developed. The risk of landslide hazards was analyzed as the function of 7 environmental site factors for the terrain, vegetation, and geological characteristics of the corresponding forest stand sites. Among the environmental factors, slope distance, relative height and shapes of slopes were interpreted using the forestland slope interpretation module developed by Chung et al. (2002). The program consists of three modules for managing spatial data, analyzing landslide hazard and report-writing, A performance test of the model showed that 72% of the total landslides in Youngin-Ansung landslides area took place in the highly vulnerable zones of grade 1 or 2 of the landslide hazard scoring map.

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Development of analysis technique of landslide hazards in natural slopes (자연사면 산사태재해 해석기법 개발)

  • Kim, Kyeong-Su;Song, Young-Suk;Cho, Yong-Chan;Chae, Byung-Gon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2009.03a
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    • pp.1092-1099
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    • 2009
  • Landslide researches are divided to a method of interrelationship for various factors, method of predicting landslide possibility, and method of estimating landslide risk which are occurring landslides in the natural slope. Most of landslides occurred in natural slope are caused by a heavy rainfall in summer season. Weathered soil layer located in upper side of rock mass was occurred. As well as, they are announced to have an influence to geometry, geology, soil characteristics, and precipitation in the natural slope. In order to investigate and interpret the variety of landslides from field investigation to risk analysis, landslide analysis process due to geotechnical and geological opinions are systematically demanded. In this research, the study area is located in Macheon area, Gyeongsangnam-do and performed the landslide investigation. From the results of landslide investigation and analysis, optimized standard model based on natural landslide is proposed to high technical method of landslide investigation and interpretation.

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IoT-Based Health Big-Data Process Technologies: A Survey

  • Yoo, Hyun;Park, Roy C.;Chung, Kyungyong
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.974-992
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    • 2021
  • Recently, the healthcare field has undergone rapid changes owing to the accumulation of health big data and the development of machine learning. Data mining research in the field of healthcare has different characteristics from those of other data analyses, such as the structural complexity of the medical data, requirement for medical expertise, and security of personal medical information. Various methods have been implemented to address these issues, including the machine learning model and cloud platform. However, the machine learning model presents the problem of opaque result interpretation, and the cloud platform requires more in-depth research on security and efficiency. To address these issues, this paper presents a recent technology for Internet-of-Things-based (IoT-based) health big data processing. We present a cloud-based IoT health platform and health big data processing technology that reduces the medical data management costs and enhances safety. We also present a data mining technology for health-risk prediction, which is the core of healthcare. Finally, we propose a study using explainable artificial intelligence that enhances the reliability and transparency of the decision-making system, which is called the black box model owing to its lack of transparency.

Development of Investigation and Analysis Technique to Landslides and Its Application (산사태 조사.해석 기법의 개발 및 적용)

  • Kim, Kyeong-Su;Song, Young-Suk;Chae, Byung-Gon;Cho, Yong-Chan;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.69-81
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    • 2008
  • Landslide researches are divided to a method of interrelationship for various factors, method of predicting landslide possibility, and method of estimating landslide risk which are occurring landslides in the natural slope. Most of landslides occurred in natural slope are caused by a heavy rainfall in summer season. Weathered soil layer located in upper side of rock mass was occurred. As well as, they are announced to have an influence to geometry, geology, soil characteristics, and precipitation in the natural slope. In order to investigate and interpret the variety of landslides from field investigation to risk analysis, landslide analysis process due to geotechnical and geological opinions are systematically demanded. In this research, the study area is located in Macheon area, Gyeongsangnam-do and performed the landslide investigation. From the results of landslide investigation and analysis, optimized standard model based on natural landslide is proposed to high technical method of landslide investigation and interpretation.