• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.8
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• pp.89-97
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• 2022

The e-commerce market faces significant credit risks due to the complexity of the industry and information asymmetries. Therefore, credit risk has started to stymie the growth of e-commerce. However, there is no reliable system for evaluating the creditworthiness of e-commerce companies. Therefore, this paper constructs a credit risk evaluation index system that comprehensively considers the online and offline behavior of online retail enterprises, including 15 indicators that reflect online credit risk and 15 indicators that reflect offline credit risk. This paper establishes an integration method based on a fuzzy integral support vector machine, which takes the factor analysis results of the credit risk evaluation index system of online retail enterprises as the input and the credit risk evaluation results of online retail enterprises as the output. The classification results of each sub-classifier and the importance of each sub-classifier decision to the final decision have been taken into account in this method. Select the sample data of 1500 online retail loan customers from a bank to test the model. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms a single SVM and traditional SVMs aggregation technique via majority voting in terms of classification accuracy, which provides a basis for banks to establish a reliable evaluation system.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.35-43
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• 2012

This study aimed to seek a method capable of hedging a rising risk of housing rent price by introducing derivatives with the target of Korean housing rent markets. The research model used in this thesis progressed a research by applying a futures contract method with the target of the rent price of major apartments in Gangnam and Gangbuk Regions of Seoul. As an analysis result, the rent price of all complexes has risen during its analysis period, so it could be confirmed that the CRB future index was also risen according to this. Finally, it was confirmed that the rising risk of the rent price can be hedged through a purchase position of futures. But, as the difference between rent price variation and CRB future index variation occurs, it appeared that 100% of hedge is difficult. However, it is judged that if considering that a method capable of hedging the rising risk of the existing rent price was nonexistent, the hedge trading effect utilizing the CRB future index on the rent price will be meaningful.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.129-139
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• 2005

This paper proposes a framework of Operational Risk-based Business Continuity System(ORBCS), and develops protection system for operational risk through operational risk assessment and loss distribution approach based on risk management guideline announced in the basel II. In order to find out financial operational risk, business processes of domestic bank are assorted by seven event factors and eight business activities so that we can construct the system. After we find out KRI(Key Risk Indicator) index, tasks and risks, we calculated risk possibility and expected cost by analyzing quantitative data, questionnaire and qualitative approach for AHP model from the past events. Furthermore, we can assume unexpected cost loss by using loss distribution approach presented in the basel II. Each bank can also assume expected loss distributions of operational risk by seven event factors and eight business activities. In this research, we choose loss distribution approach so that we can calculate operational risk. In order to explain number of case happened, we choose poisson distribution, log-normal distribution for loss cost, and estimate model for Monte-Carlo simulation. Through this process which is measured by operational risk. of ABC bank, we find out that loss distribution approach explains closer unexpected cost directly compared than internal measurement approach, and makes less unexpected cost loss.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1661-1671
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• 2016

Risk analysis is a systematic study of uncertainties and risks we encounter in business, engineering, public policy, and many other areas. Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most widely used risk measurements in risk management. In this paper, the Korean Composite Stock Price Index data has been utilized to model the VaR employing the classical ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (1,1) models with normal, t, generalized hyperbolic, and generalized pareto distributed errors. The aim of this paper is to compare the performance of each model in estimating the VaR. The performance of models were compared in terms of the number of VaR violations and Kupiec exceedance test. The GARCH-GPD likelihood ratio unconditional test statistic has been found to have the smallest value among the models.

• Physical Therapy Korea
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.102-109
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• 2023

Background: While efforts have been made to differentiate fall risk in older adults using wearable devices and clinical methodologies, technologies are still infancy. We applied a decision tree (DT) algorithm using inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensor data and clinical measurements to generate high performance classification models of fall risk of older adults. Objects: This study aims to develop a classification model of fall risk using IMU data and clinical measurements in older adults. Methods: Twenty-six older adults were assessed and categorized into high and low fall risk groups. IMU sensor data were obtained while walking from each group, and features were extracted to be used for a DT algorithm with the Gini index (DT1) and the Entropy index (DT2), which generated classification models to differentiate high and low fall risk groups. Model's performance was compared and presented with accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were 77.8%, 80.0%, and 66.7%, respectively, for DT1; and 72.2%, 91.7%, and 33.3%, respectively, for DT2. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the fall risk classification using IMU sensor data obtained during gait has potentials to be developed for practical use. Different machine learning techniques involving larger data set should be warranted for future research and development.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.158-165
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• 2020

Buoys are a necessary component for the safety of vessel traffic. However, if the buoy becomes inoperable from damage and loss, it can have significant impact on vessel traffic safety as well as unexpected budget spending. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk of accidental contact by applying the marine traffic assessment index that can reflect the traffic flow in the sea area. First, Busan Port No. 5 fairway, with a high number of buoys and many contact accidents, was set as the sea area for assessment. to investigate the status of accidental contact and evaluate risk of contact accidents based on the IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Programme (IWRAP MkII) and Potential Assessment of Risk Model (PARK Model). As a result, buoys are near the P recautionary Area wherein the traffic flow was complicated by the Masan port vessel and Busan new port vessel, and buoys are near the entrance of the Gadeok waterway, wherein vessels show a pattern of navigation across the fairway and buoys are near the breakwater in the inner fairway were considered as high risk for contact accidents. This study can be used as basic data for establishing an integrated model to evaluate the risk of buoy contact accidents.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.14 no.6_2
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• pp.89-95
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• 2014

This study analyzed a correlation between crime and meteorological changes and discomfort index of Seoul and p resented a prediction expression through the regression analysis. For data used in this study, crime data from Januar y 2008 to December 2012 of Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency and meteorological records and discomfort index recor ded in the Meteorological Agency through the portal sites were used. Based on this data, SPSS 18.0 was used for the regression analysis and the analysis of correlation between crime and meteorological changes and discomfort index and a prediction expression was derived through the analysis and the risk index was shown in 5 steps depending on predicted values obtained through the prediction expression derived. The risk index of 5 steps classified like this is considered to be used as important data for crime prevention activities.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.109-116
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• 2009

In the paper, we designed an automatic security diagnostic evaluation System(SeDES) based on a security diagnostic evaluation model(SeDEM) for an organization's security assurance. The SeDEM evaluates a security level of an organization quantitatively by a security evaluation formula which is composed of security variables and security index as applying the statistical CAEL model for evaluate risk level of banks. The SeDES has a good expandability as changing security variables according to an organization scale, characteristics and so on. And it also has a excellent usage because it inputs only numeric data got from statistical technique to security index. We can understand more a security level correctly than the existent risk assessment system because it is possible to assess quantitatively with an security grade as well as score. analysis.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.59-67
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• 2015

Because reservoirs that supply irrigation water play an important role in water resource management, it is necessary to evaluate the vulnerability of this particular water supply resource. The purpose of this study is to provide water supply risk maps of agricultural reservoirs in South Korea using irrigation vulnerability model and cluster analysis. To quantify water supply risk, irrigation vulnerability indices are estimated to evaluate the performance of the water supply on the agricultural reservoir system using a probability theory and reliability analysis. First, the irrigation vulnerability probabilities of 1,346 reservoirs managed by Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC) were analyzed using meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations over the past 30 years (1981-2010). Second, using the K-mean method of non-hierarchical cluster analysis and pre-simulation approach, cluster analysis was applied to classify into three groups for characterizing irrigation vulnerability in reservoirs. The morphology index, watershed area, irrigated area, and ratio between watershed and irrigated area are selected as the clustering analysis parameters. It is suggested that the water supply risk map be utilized as a basis for the establishment of risk management measures, and could provide effective information for a reasonable decision making on drought risk mitigation.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.16 no.11
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• pp.21-27
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• 2018

Purpose - This study investigates the financial ratio of savings banks and the effect of the ratio having influence upon bankruptcy by quantitative empirical analysis of forecast model to give material of better management and objective evidence of management strategy and way of advancement and risk control. Research design, data, and methodology - The author added two growth indexes, three fluidity indexes, five profitability indexes, and four activity indexes CAMEL rating to not only the balance sheets but also the income statement of thirty savings banks that suspended business from 2011 to 2015 and collected fourteen financial ratio indexes. IBMSPSS VER. 21.0 was used. Results - Variables having influence upon bankruptcy forecast models included total asset increase ratio and operating income increase ratio of growth index and sales to account receivable ratio, and tangible equity ratio and liquidity ratio of liquidity ratio. The study selected total asset operating ratio, and earning and expenditure ratio from profitability index, and receivable turnover ratio of activity index. Conclusions - Financial supervising system should be improved and financial consumers should be protected to develop saving bank and to control risk, and information on financial companies should be strengthened.