• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk event

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Simulation-Based Risk Analysis of Integrated Power System (시뮬레이션을 이용한 통합전력시스템의 위험도 분석)

  • Lee, Ji Young;Han, Young Jin;Yun, Won Young;Bin, Jae Goo
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.151-164
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we deal with a risk analysis for an IPS (Integrated power system) and propose a simulation model combining the fault tree and event tree in order to estimate the system availability and risk level, together. Firstly, the basic information such as operational scenarios, physical structure, safety systems is explained in order to make the fault tree and event tree of the IPS. Next, we propose a discrete-event simulation model using a next-event time advance technique to advance the simulation time. Also the state transition and activity diagrams are explained to represent the relationship between the objects. By numerical examples, the redundancy allocation is considered in order to decrease the risk level of the IPS.

Development of Integrated Method and Tool for Railway Risk Assessment (철도 위험도 통합 평가 방법 및 도구 개발)

  • Han, Sang-Hoon;Ahn, Kwang-Il;Wang, Jong-Bae;Lee, Ho-Joong
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2006.11b
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    • pp.1132-1139
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    • 2006
  • Railway risk is evaluated by a method of linking event trees and fault trees as the general PSA(Probabilistic Safety Assessment) model for the risk assessment of complex systems. Accident scenarios causing undesirable events are modeled by event trees comprised of several accident sequences. Each branch located in the accident progression of the event tree is modeled by an fault tree or can be represented by some value too simply. We usually evaluate the frequency of the whole sequence by adding them after calculating the frequency of each sequence at a time. However, since there are quite a number of event trees and fault trees in the railway risk assessment model, the number of sequence to evaluate increases and preparation for the risk assessment costs much time all the more. Also, it may induce errors when analysts perform the work of quantification. Therefore, the systematic maintenance and control of event trees and fault trees will be essential for the railway risk assessment. In this paper we introduce an integrated assessment method using one-top model and develop a risk assessment tool for the maintenance and control of the railway risk model.

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Comparative Analysis of Terminology and Classification Related to Risk Management of Radiotherapy

  • Oh, Yoonjin;Kim, Dong Wook;Shin, Dong Oh;Koo, Jihye;Lee, Soon Sung;Choi, Sang Hyoun;Ahn, Sohyun;Park, Dong-wook
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2016
  • We analyzed the terminology and classification related to the risk management of radiation treatment overseas to establish the terminology and classification system for Korea. This study investigated the terminology and classification for radiotherapy risk management through overseas research materials from related organizations and associations, including the IAEA, WHO, British group, EC, and AAPM. Overseas risk management commonly uses the terms "near miss", "incident", and "adverse event", classified according to the degree of severity. However, several organizations have ambiguous terminologies. They use the term "near miss" for events such as a near event, close call, and good catch; the term "incident" for an event; and the term "adverse event" for the likes of an accident and an event. In addition, different organizations use different classifications: a "near miss" is generally classified as "incident" in most cases but not classified as such in BIR et al. Confusion might also be caused by the disunity of the terminology and classification, and by the ambiguity of definitions. Patient safety management of medical institutions in Korea uses the terms "near miss", "adverse event", and "sentinel event", which it classifies into eight levels according to the severity of risk to the patient. Therefore, the terminology and classification for radiotherapy risk management based on the patient safety management of medical institutions in Korea will help in improving the safety and quality of radiotherapy.

Impact of Time Interval between Index Event and Stenting on Periprocedural Risk in Patients with Symptomatic Carotid Stenosis

  • Han, Wonsuck;Hwang, Gyojun;Oh, Sung Han;Lee, Jong Joo;Kim, Mi Kyung;Chung, Bong Sub;Rhim, Jong Kook;Sheen, Seung Hun;Kim, Taehyung
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.63 no.5
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    • pp.598-606
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    • 2020
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of time interval between index event and stenting on the periprocedural risk of stenting for symptomatic carotid stenosis and to determine the optimal timing of stenting. Methods : This retrospective study included 491 (322 symptomatic [65.6%] and 169 asymptomatic [34.4%]) patients undergoing carotid stenting. The symptomatic patients were categorized into Day 0-3, 4-7, 8-10, 11-14, 15-21, and >21 groups according to the time interval between index event and stenting. Periprocedural (≤30 days) risk for clinical (any neurological deterioration) and radiological (new infarction on postprocedural diffusion-weighted imaging) events of stenting in each time interval versus asymptomatic stenosis was calculated with logistic regression analysis adjusted for confounders, and provided as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results : Overall clinical event rate (4.3%) of stenting for symptomatic carotid stenosis was higher than that for asymptomatic stenosis (1.2%; OR, 3.979 [95% CI, 1.093-14.489]; p=0.036). Stenting in Day 0-3 (13.2%; OR, 10.997 [95% CI, 2.333-51.826]; p=0.002) and Day 4-7 (8.3%; OR, 6.775 [95% CI, 1.382-33.227]; p=0.018) was associated with high risk for clinical events. However, the clinical event rates in stenting after 7 days from index event (Day 8-10, 1.8%; Day 11-14, 2.5%; Day 15-21, 0%; Day >21, 2.9%) were not different from that in stenting for asymptomatic stenosis. Overall radiological event rate (55.6%) in symptomatic stenosis was also higher than that in asymptomatic stenosis (35.5%; OR, 2.274 [95% CI, 1.553-3.352]; p<0.001). The high risk for radiological events was maintained in all time intervals (Day 0-3 : 55.3%; OR, 2.224 [95% CI, 1.103-4.627]; p=0.026; Day 4-7 : 58.3%; OR, 2.543 [95% CI, 1.329-4.949]; p=0.005; Day 8-10 : 53.6%; OR, 2.096 [95% CI, 1.138-3.889]; p=0.018; Day 11-14 : 57.5%; OR, 2.458 [95% CI, 1.225-5.021]; p=0.012; Day 15-21 : 55.6%; OR, 2.271 [95% CI, 1.099-4.764]; p=0.028; Day >21 : 54.8%; OR, 2.203 [95% CI, 1.342-3.641]; p=0.002). Conclusion : This study showed that as stenting was delayed, the periprocedural risk for clinical events decreased. The clinical event risk was high only in stenting within 7 days and comparable with that for asymptomatic stenosis in stenting after 7 days from index event, although the radiological event risk was not affected by stenting timing. Therefore, our results suggest that delayed stenting after 7 days from symptom onset is a safe strategy for symptomatic stenosis.

Distribution of average rainfall event-depth for overflow risk-based design of detention storage basin (월류위험도 기반 저류지 설계를 위한 평균강우량도 작성)

  • Kim, Dae Geun;Park, Sun Jung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2008
  • This study collected the latest 30-year (1976~2005) continuous rainfall data hourly recorded at 61 meterological observatories in Korea, and the continuous rainfall data was divided into individual rainfall events. In addition, distribution charts of average rainfall event-depth were created to facilitate the application to the overflow risk-based design of detention storage basin. This study shows that 4 hour is appropriate for SST (storm separation time) to separate individual rainfall events from the continuous rainfall data, and the one-parameter exponential distribution is suitable for the frequency distribution of rainfall event depths for the domestic rainfall data. The analysis of the domestic rainfall data using SST of 4 hour showed that the individual rainfall event was 1380 to 2031 times, the average rainfall event-depth was 19.1 to 32.4mm, and ranged between 0.877 and 0.926. Distribution charts of average rainfall event-depth were created for 4hour and 6 hour of SST, respectively. The inland Gyeongsangbuk-do, Western coastal area and inland of Jeollabuk-do had relatively lower average rainfall event-depth, whereas Southern coastal area, such as Namhae, Yeosu, and Jeju-do had relatively higher average rainfall event-depth.

An Extraction of the Risk Events in the Construction Planning Phase (건설기획단계에서의 위험요인 도출)

  • Kwon, Soon-O;Kim, Seon-Gyoo;Lee, Nak-Woon
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.25 no.B
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2005
  • The planning phase of construction project success or failure of the enterprise decision the 1st dangerous duration which occurs very there is a possibility of making with the phase which is important, of construction project in life cycle most many risk. But the risk management from planning phase well does not become accomplished is the actual condition from existing construction project. Consequently, it classifies the risk event from project initial planning phase of construction project from this study which probably is substantial risk event the possibility of accomplishing from a planning phase successfully in order to be.

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Identification and Analysis of External Event Combinations for Hanhikivi 1 PRA

  • Helander, Juho
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.380-386
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    • 2017
  • Fennovoima's nuclear power plant, Hanhikivi 1, $Pyh{\ddot{a}}joki$, Finland, is currently in design phase, and its construction is scheduled to begin in 2018 and electricity production in 2024. The objective of this paper is to produce a preliminary list of safety-significant external event combinations including preliminary probability estimates, to be used in the probabilistic risk assessment of Hanhikivi 1 plant. Starting from the list of relevant single events, the relevant event combinations are identified based on seasonal variation, preconditions related to different events, and dependencies (fundamental and cascade type) between events. Using this method yields 30 relevant event combinations of two events for the Hanhikivi site. The preliminary probability of each combination is evaluated, and event combinations with extremely low probability are excluded from further analysis. Event combinations of three or more events are identified by adding possible events to the remaining combinations of two events. Finally, 10 relevant combinations of two events and three relevant combinations of three events remain. The results shall be considered preliminary and will be updated after evaluating more detailed effects of different events on plant safety.

Development of Risk Evaluation Models for Railway Casualty Accidents (철도사상 사고위험도 평가 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Woo;Kim, Min-Su;Wang, Jong-Bae;Choi, Don-Bum
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1499-1504
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    • 2008
  • This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

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Posttraumatic Stress in Fire fighters (소방대원의 외상후 스트레스 실태)

  • Koh, Bong-Yeun
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.5-15
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : This study is a descriptive research to provide basic factors of posttraumatic stress in Firefighters. This study was carried out to develop the effective program for the fire fighters to cope with the posttraumatic stress following the disasters. Methods : The questionnaires were collected among fire fighters who serviced in K and I community from April 1 to June 30 in 2008. Total 304 questionnaires were analyzed by SPSS WIN program for descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation coefficient and t-test. Results : 1. 48.0% of 300 fire fighters were at the age of 31-40, and 42.3% were under 30. 2. Work burden had a significant difference of 2.30 in low-risk group, 2.60 in high-risk group(t-value=-3.85, p=0.00). However, life event had no significant difference 0.79 event in low-risk group, 1.41 event in high-risk group(t-value=-2.27, p=0.24). 3. Concerning posttraumatic stress factors, there was positive correlation between mobilization impact level r=0.38(P<0.01), work burden r=0.38(p<0.01), and life event r=0.27(p<0.01). 4. According to the Symptom Check List-Revised(SCL-90-R), somatization had a significant differences(t-value=5.46, p=0.00), obsessive-compulsive(t-value=7.16, p=0.00), interpersonal sensitivity(t-value=6.15, p=0.00), depression(t-value=6.62, p=0.00), anxiety (t-value=7.33, p=0.00), hostility(t-value=5.94, p=0.00), phobia anxiety(t-value=6.85, p=0.00), paranoid ideation(t-value=5.55, p=0.00), psychotism(t-value=6.52, p=0.00) in low-risk and high-risk group. Conclusion : As a consequence, mobilization impact, work burden, and life event were the influential factors on posttraumatic stress. Also, high-risk group revealed significantly higher score on all 9 scales. The information obtained from surveys made recommendation to develop the intervention of stress management to control mobilization impact and posttraumatic stress.

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Application Cases of Risk Assessment for British Railtrack System (영국철도시스템에 적용된 리스크평가 사례)

  • Lee, Dong-Ha;Jeong, Gwang-Tae
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.81-94
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    • 2003
  • The British railway safety research group has developed a risk assessment model for the railway infrastructure and major railway accidents. The major hazardous factors of the railway infrastructure were identified and classified in the model. The frequency rates of critical top events were predicted by the fault tree analysis method using failure data of the railway system components and ratings of railway maintenance experts, The consequences of critical top events were predicted by the event tree analysis method. They classified the Joss of accident due to railway system into personal. commercial and environmental damages. They also classified 110 hazardous event due to railway system into three categories. train accident. movement accident and non-movement accident. The risk assessment model of the British railway system has been designed to take full account of both the high frequency low consequence type events (events occurring routinely for which there is significant quantity of recorded data) and the low frequency high consequence events (events occurring rarely for which there is little recorded data). The results for each hazardous event were presented in terms of the frequency of occurrence (number of events/year) and the risk (number of equivalent fatalities per year).