• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk efficient

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Performance of Contrarian Strategies using Price Change and Price Level (과거의 주가수준과 주식수익률을 이용한 투자전략의 성과)

  • Lee, Myung-Chul;Lee, Soo-Geun
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.147-173
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    • 2011
  • It is generally accepted that there are momentum effects in the short term and reversal effects in the long term, which makes abnormal excess returns in the major stock markets in the world. In Korea stock market, however, the previous studies demonstrate that contrarian strategies based on reversal effects are more effective than momentum strategies following momentum effects in the short term as well as in the long term. This paper examines wether contrarian strategies are still effective In Korea stock market from 1980 to 2009, and the short term reversals may be changed after the foreign exchange crisis in 1997-1998. Moreover, this paper investigates how contrarian profits are shown considering the state of market. In my research, unlike previous studies, I find that both of contrarian strategies using price change and price level cannot gain excess risk adjusted returns in Korea stock market from 1980 to 2009, but this result is due to the fact that reversal effects existed before the foreign exchange crisis but momentum effects does after the foreign exchange crisis in 1997-1998. Specially, after the foreign exchange crisis, it is confirmed momentum strategies using 52 week high price, that is, price level are more effective than momentum strategies using price change. And following the strategies using 52 week high price after the foreign exchange crisis, the momentum is not only observed in the up market but also in the down market, which is different with the results of the studies regarding to American market, where the momentum is just found in the up market.

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A Legal Study on Safety Management System (항공안전관리에 관한 법적 고찰)

  • So, Jae-Seon;Lee, Chang-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.3-32
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    • 2014
  • Safety Management System is the aviation industry policy for while operating the aircraft, to ensure the safety crew, aircraft and passengers. For operating a safe aircraft, in order to establish the international technical standards, the International Civil Aviation Organization has established the Annex 19 of the Convention on International Civil Aviation. As a result, member country was supposed to be in accordance with the policy of the International Civil Aviation Organization, to accept the international standard of domestic air law. The South Korean government announced that it would promote active safety management strategy in primary aviation policy master plan of 2012. And, by integrating and state safety programmes(ssp) and safety management system(sms) for the safe management of Annex 19 is to enforce the policy on aviation safety standards. State safety programmes(ssp) is a system of activities for the aim of strengthening the safety and integrated management of the activities of government. State safety programmes(ssp) is important on the basis of the data of the risk information. Collecting aviation hazard information is necessary for efficient operation of the state safety programmes(ssp) Korean government must implement the strategy required to comply with aviation methods and standards of the International Civil Aviation Organization. Airlines, must strive to safety features for safety culture construction and improvement of safety management is realized. It is necessary to make regulations on the basis of the aviation practice, for aviation safety regulatory requirements, aviation safety should reflect the opinion of the aviation industry.

The Analytical Study for Sika Deer's Behaviour Pattern and Characteristics of Their Habitats Through Monitoring the Sika Deer Released at the Urban Forests in South Korea (국내 도심지 숲에 방사된 꽃사슴 모니터링을 통한 행동양식 및 서식지 특성분석 연구)

  • Jin, Ki-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.322-332
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to understand the control mechanism of Sika deer (Cervus nippon taiouanus) populations which are adapted to the natural forest areas and the semi-natural forest areas of Korea. We monitored and analyzed the behaviour patterns and habitat characteristics of Sika deers. After we released 12 Sika deers (male 3, female 9) each at the two study areas in and around Seoul under the approval of Korean government, we monitored them through our survey researchers' naked eyes from May 2011 to January 2012. We discriminated their habitat patterns to 4 major places - eating food place, drinking water place, daytime rest place, and nighttime rest place. Our results showed that Sika deer preferred the open grassland habitats for feeding and resting in daytime but the closed bushland for their protection and sleep. We also found the recommended sex ratio of adult male to female in a herd was 1 : 4~9 for breeding and they had few cubs in a herd. The average amount of food for 1 adult deer was 391.62 kg of fresh grasses and 286.90 kg of hay per year. Our results suggest that the amount of drinking water required for a deer when grazed on grasses during spring and summer seasons is 256.8 L and when a deer feeds on dry food during autumn and winter seasons, 209.8 L of water is required. From these results, we observe that the amount of drinking water was affected substantially by the moisture content of their food. This observational study must be very valuable for land managers to judge the number of deers that should be released in natural areas without high risk and to ascertain the sex ratio of large mammals including Sika deer. Therefore, we conclude that this population control mechanism study consists of efficient basic data and their values must be very effective for various purposes.

A study on dosimetric comparison of craniospinal irradiation using tomotherpy and reproducibility of position (토모테라피를 이용한 뇌척수조사의 선량적 비교와 자세 재현성에 대한 고찰)

  • Lee, Heejeong;Kim, Jooho;Lee, Sangkyu;Yoon, Jongwon;Cho, Jeonghee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to verify dosimetric results and reproducibility of position during craniospinal irradiation (CSI) using tomotherapy (Accuray Incorporated, USA). Also, by comparing with conventional CSI Technique, we confirmed the efficiency of using a Tomotherapy. Materials and Methods: 10 CSI patients who get tomotherapy participate. Patient-specific quality assurances (QA) for each patient are conducted before treatment. When treating, we took Megavoltage Computed Tomography (MVCT) that range of head and neck before treatment, L spine area after treatment. Also we conducted in-vivo dosimetry to check a scalp dose. Finally, we made a 3D conventional radiation therapy(3D-CRT) of those patients to compare dosimetric differences with tomotherapy treatment planning. Results: V107, V95 of brain is 0 %, 97.2 % in tomotherapy, and 0.3 %, 95.1 % in 3D-CRT. In spine, value of V107, V95 is 0.2 %, 18.6 % in tomotherapy and 89.6 %, 69.9 % in 3D-CRT. Except kidney and lung, tomotherapy reduced normal organ doses than 3D-CRT. The maximum positioning error value of X, Y, Z was 10.2 mm, -8.9 mm, -11.9 mm. Through in-vivo dosimetry, the average of scalp dose was 67.8 % of prescription dose. All patient-specific QA were passed by tolerance value. Conclusion: CSI using tomotherapy had a risk of parallel organ such as lung and kidney because of integral dose in low dose area. However, it demonstrated dosimetric superiority at a target and saved normal organ to reduce high dose. Also results of reproducibility were not exceeded margins that estimated treatment planning and invivo dosimetry showed to reduce scalp dose. Therefore, CSI using tomotherapy is considered to efficient method to make up for 3D-CRT.

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Prevalence of Pathogenic Bacteria in Livestock Manure Compost and Organic Fertilizer (가축분퇴비와 유기질비료에서 병원성박테리아의 분포도 분석)

  • Jung, Kyu-Seok;Heu, Sung-Gi;Roh, Eun-Jung;Lee, Dong-Hwan;Yun, Jong-Chul;Kim, Kye-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.824-829
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    • 2011
  • In recent years, there has been an increasing public concern about fecal contamination of water, air and agricultural produce by pathogens residing in organic fertilizers such as manure, compost and agricultural by-products. Efforts are now being made to control or eliminate the pathogen populations at on-farm level. Development of efficient on-farm strategies to mitigate the potential risk posed by the pathogens requires data about how the pathogens prevail in livestock manure composts and organic fertilizers. Microbiological analysis of livestock manure composts and organic fertilizers obtained from 32 and 28 companies, respectively, were conducted to determine the total aerobic bacteria count, coliforms, Escherichia coli count and the prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus, Salmonella spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, and Cronobacter sakazakii. The total aerobic bacteria counts in the livestock manure composts and organic fertilizers were in the range of 7 to $9log\;CFU\;g^{-1}$ and 4 to $6log\;CFU\;g^{-1}$, respectively. In the livestock manure composts, coliforms and E. coli were detected in samples obtained from 4 and 2 companies, respectively, in the range of 2 to $5log\;CFU\;g^{-1}$ and $2log\;CFU\;g^{-1}$. In the organic fertilizers, coliforms and E. coli were detected in samples obtained from 4 and 1 companies, respectively, in the range of 1 to $3log\;CFU\;g^{-1}$ and $2log\;CFU\;g^{-1}$. In 3 out 32 compost samples, B. cereus was detected, while other pathogens were not detected. In 28 organic fertilizers, no pathogens were detected. The complete composting process can result in the elimination of pathogens in livestock manure compost and organic fertilizer. The results of this study could help to formulate microbiological guidelines for the use of compost in environmental-friendly agriculture. This research provides information regarding microbiological quality of livestock manure compost and organic fertilizer.

A Study on Determinants of Korean SMEs' Foreign Direct Investment in Gaeseong Industrial Complex & Vietnam (중소기업의 개성공단 및 베트남 직접투자 결정요인 연구)

  • Cho, Heonsoo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.167-178
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the direct investment decision factors in the Kaesong Industrial Complex and Vietnam, and to contribute to the creation of domestic jobs and the revitalization of the inter-Korean economy. According to the analysis, most of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and Vietnamese investment companies are entering the complex for the purpose of utilizing cheap labor, cheap factory locations, sales/development of local markets, and bypass export production bases in third countries. This can be divided into production-efficient investors using differences in production price such as labor costs and market-oriented investors to sell and expand the local market, which seems to be consistent with global direct investment patterns such as Nike, Apple, and Amazon. However, even if the North Korea-U.S. denuclearization talks ease or lift sanctions, Vietnamese investors' willingness to invest in the North Korea has been most burdened by the possibility of closing special economic zones due to political risks. Last but not least, it is important to note that those willing to invest in North Korea are mostly smaller enterprises in textiles, sewing, footwear and leather industries-those that benefit from low-cost labor. Since their size is small, they need policy support in financing, especially in the early stages of their business. Even after they grow past the early stages, those without collateral would still need state guarantee letters to get financing. Thus, it is worth considering to use the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund to compensate commercial banks for bad loan loss or for low-interest loans for smaller SMEs. The interviews with SMEs found that red-tape is one of the biggest difficulties they face. Thus, it is recommended that a one-stop service agency should be established to cover all processes and issues related to inter-Korean economic cooperation to eliminate redundancy and expediate government support for SMEs.

Particulate Matter and CO2 Improvement Effects by Vegetation-based Bio-filters and the Indoor Comfort Index Analysis (식생기반 바이오필터의 미세먼지, 이산화탄소 개선효과와 실내쾌적지수 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Han;Choi, Boo-Hun;Choi, Na-Hyun;Jang, Eun-Suk
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.268-276
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND: In the month of January 2018, fine dust alerts and warnings were issued 36 times for $PM_{10}$ and 81 times for PM2.5. Air quality is becoming a serious issue nation-wide. Although interest in air-purifying plants is growing due to the controversy over the risk of chemical substances of regular air-purifying solutions, industrial spread of the plants has been limited due to their efficiency in air-conditioning perspective. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study aims to propose a vegetation-based bio-filter system that can assure total indoor air volume for the efficient application of air-purifying plants. In order to evaluate the quantitative performance of the system, time-series analysis was conducted on air-conditioning performance, indoor air quality, and comfort index improvement effects in a lecture room-style laboratory with 16 persons present in the room. The system provided 4.24 ACH ventilation rate and reduced indoor temperature by $1.6^{\circ}C$ and black bulb temperature by $1.0^{\circ}C$. Relative humidity increased by 24.4% and deteriorated comfort index. However, this seemed to be offset by turbulent flow created from the operation of air blowers. While $PM_{10}$ was reduced by 39.5% to $22.11{\mu}g/m^3$, $CO_2$ increased up to 1,329ppm. It is interpreted that released $CO_2$ could not be processed because light compensation point was not reached. As for the indoor comfort index, PMV was reduced by 83.6 % and PPD was reduced by 47.0% on average, indicating that indoor space in a comfort range could be created by operating vegetation-based bio-filters. CONCLUSION: The study confirmed that the vegetation-based bio-filter system is effective in lowering indoor temperature and $PM_{10}$ and has positive effects on creating comfortable indoor space in terms of PMV and PPD.

Performance of Investment Strategy using Investor-specific Transaction Information and Machine Learning (투자자별 거래정보와 머신러닝을 활용한 투자전략의 성과)

  • Kim, Kyung Mock;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2021
  • Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

Analysis of Physical Status on COVID-19: Based on Impacts of Physical Activity (COVID-19에 대한 운동중재효과 분석)

  • Kim, Kwi-Baek;Kwak, Yi Sub
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.603-608
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this perspective research is to discuss the potential role of exercise-interventions in COVID-19, terms of prevention and prognosis in the periods of the COVID-19 vaccine. SARCO-CoV-2. COVID-19 was detected as a new virus causing severe cardiovascular and respiratory complications. It emerged as a global public health emergency and national pandemic. It caused more than 1 million deaths in the first 6 months of the pandemic and resulted in huge social and economic fluctuations internationally. Unprecedented stressful situations, such as COVID-19 blue and COVID-19 red impact on many health problems. In healthy individuals, COVID-19 infection may induced no symptoms (i.e., asymptomatic), whereas others may experience flu-like symptoms, such as ARDS, pneumonia, and death. Poor health status, such as obesity and cardiovascular and respiratory complications, are high risk factors for COVID-19 prevention, occurrence, and prognosis. Several COVID-19 vaccines are currently in human trials. However, the efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccines, including potential side effects, such as anaphylaxis (a life-threatening allergic reaction) and rare blood clots, still need to be investigated. On the basis of direct and indirect evidence, it seems that regular and moderate physical exercise can be recommended as a nonpharmacological, efficient, and safe way to cope with COVID-19. Physical inactivity and metabolic abnormalities are directly associated with reduced immune responses, including reduced innate, CMI, and AMI responses. Due to prolonged viral shedding, quarantine in inactive, obese and disease people should likely be longer than physical active people. Multicomponent and systemic exercise should be considered for the obese, disease, and elderly people. More mechanism research is needed in this area.

Preliminary Inspection Prediction Model to select the on-Site Inspected Foreign Food Facility using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (차원축소를 활용한 해외제조업체 대상 사전점검 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hae Jin Park;Jae Suk Choi;Sang Goo Cho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2023
  • As the number and weight of imported food are steadily increasing, safety management of imported food to prevent food safety accidents is becoming more important. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety conducts on-site inspections of foreign food facilities before customs clearance as well as import inspection at the customs clearance stage. However, a data-based safety management plan for imported food is needed due to time, cost, and limited resources. In this study, we tried to increase the efficiency of the on-site inspection by preparing a machine learning prediction model that pre-selects the companies that are expected to fail before the on-site inspection. Basic information of 303,272 foreign food facilities and processing businesses collected in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network and 1,689 cases of on-site inspection information data collected from 2019 to April 2022 were collected. After preprocessing the data of foreign food facilities, only the data subject to on-site inspection were extracted using the foreign food facility_code. As a result, it consisted of a total of 1,689 data and 103 variables. For 103 variables, variables that were '0' were removed based on the Theil-U index, and after reducing by applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis, 49 characteristic variables were finally derived. We build eight different models and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold cross validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated. The research purpose of selecting companies subject to on-site inspection is to maximize the recall, which is the probability of judging nonconforming companies as nonconforming. As a result of applying various algorithms of machine learning, the Random Forest model with the highest Recall_macro, AUROC, Average PR, F1-score, and Balanced Accuracy was evaluated as the best model. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the selection reason for nonconforming facilities of individual instances, and discuss applicability to the on-site inspection facility selection system. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that it will contribute to the efficient operation of limited resources such as manpower and budget by establishing an imported food management system through a data-based scientific risk management model.