• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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Development of a Decision Making Model for Construction Management in LNG Plant Construction - Focused on Construction Stage - (LNG 공사의 건설사업관리 의사결정지원모델 개발 - 시공단계 중심 -)

  • Park, Hwan Pyo;Han, Jae Goo;Chin, Kyung Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2014
  • LNG plant projects tend to be implemented in overseas owing to its characteristics, so their project management scheme is somewhat different from those of general projects. Value chain in a LNG plant project includes exploration/production of gases, physical liquefaction/chemical conversion processes, transportation and storage. Key factors in the chain include liquefaction process (including ultra-low temperature liquefaction) to convert natural gas into liquid materials or fuel, and Front End Engineering Design (FEED) package, as well as Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) technology comprising control, operation and construction. Success of a complex LNG plant project implemented in overseas depends on decision-making process in project management. Accordingly, to develop a decision-making model in of plant construction, the study extracted none factors in project management by EPC stage and assessed importance of each factor. The result showed that items in both project management and project risk management are important. Especially, the study developed a decision-making model in the construction stage of a LNG plant project based on the project management factors and importance assessment. The developed decision-making model would lay groundwork in building a decision-making system in construction stage of project management.

Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario (백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정)

  • Lee, Yun-Jung;Kim, Su-Do;Chun, Joonseok;Woo, Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.515-523
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    • 2013
  • The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

Fate Analysis and Impact Assessment for Vehicle Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) Emitted from Metropolitan City Using Multimedia Fugacity Model (다매체거동모델을 이용한 대도시 자동차 배출 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) 거동 해석 및 영향평가)

  • Rhee, Gahee;Hwangbo, Soonho;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.479-495
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to research the multimedia fate modeling, concentration distribution and impact assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emitted from automobiles, which are known as carcinogenic and mutation chemicals. The amount of emissions of PAHs was determined based on the census data of automobiles at a target S-city and emission factors of PAHs, where multimedia fugacity modeling was conducted by the restriction of PAHs transfer between air-soil at the impervious area. PAHs' Concentrations and their distributions at several environmental media were predicted by multimedia fugacity model (level III). The residual amounts and the distributions of PAHs through mass transfer of PAHs between environment media were used to assess the health risk of PAHs at unsteady state (level IV), where the sensitivity analyses of the model parameter of each variable were conducted based on Monte Carlo simulation. The experimental result at S-city showed that Fluoranthene among PAHs substances are the highest residual concentrations (60%, 53%, 32% and 34%) at all mediums (atmospheric, water, soil, sediment), respectively, where most of the PAHs were highly accumulated in the sediment media (more than 80%). A result of PAHs concentration changes in S-city over the past 34 years identified that PAHs emissions from all environmental media increased from 1983 to 2005 and decreased until 2016, where the emission of heavy-duty vehicle including truck revealed the largest contribution to the automotive emissions of PAHs at all environment media. The PAHs concentrations in soil and water for the last 34 years showed the less value than the legal standards of PAHs, but the PAHs in air exceeded the air quality standards from 1996 to 2016. The result of this study is expected to contribute the effective management and monitoring of toxic chemicals of PAHs at various environment media of Metropolitan city.

Factors Influencing the Adoption of Location-Based Smartphone Applications: An Application of the Privacy Calculus Model (스마트폰 위치기반 어플리케이션의 이용의도에 영향을 미치는 요인: 프라이버시 계산 모형의 적용)

  • Cha, Hoon S.
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.7-29
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    • 2012
  • Smartphone and its applications (i.e. apps) are increasingly penetrating consumer markets. According to a recent report from Korea Communications Commission, nearly 50% of mobile subscribers in South Korea are smartphone users that accounts for over 25 million people. In particular, the importance of smartphone has risen as a geospatially-aware device that provides various location-based services (LBS) equipped with GPS capability. The popular LBS include map and navigation, traffic and transportation updates, shopping and coupon services, and location-sensitive social network services. Overall, the emerging location-based smartphone apps (LBA) offer significant value by providing greater connectivity, personalization, and information and entertainment in a location-specific context. Conversely, the rapid growth of LBA and their benefits have been accompanied by concerns over the collection and dissemination of individual users' personal information through ongoing tracking of their location, identity, preferences, and social behaviors. The majority of LBA users tend to agree and consent to the LBA provider's terms and privacy policy on use of location data to get the immediate services. This tendency further increases the potential risks of unprotected exposure of personal information and serious invasion and breaches of individual privacy. To address the complex issues surrounding LBA particularly from the user's behavioral perspective, this study applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) to explore the factors that influence the adoption of LBA. According to PCM, consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. Consistent with the principal notion of PCM, we investigated how individual users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service and locatability act as benefit-side factors and information privacy risks act as a risk-side factor accompanying LBA adoption. In addition, we consider the moderating role of trust on the service providers in the prohibiting effects of privacy risks on user intention to adopt LBA. Further we include perceived ease of use and usefulness as additional constructs to examine whether the technology acceptance model (TAM) can be applied in the context of LBA adoption. The research model with ten (10) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 98 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a LBA allows the participant to purchase time-and-location sensitive discounted tickets for nearby stores. Structural equations modeling using partial least square validated the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that six (6) out of ten (10) hypotheses were supported. On the subject of the core PCM, H2 (locatability ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) and H3 (privacy risks ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported, while H1 (personalization ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Further, we could not any interaction effects (personalization X privacy risks, H4 & locatability X privacy risks, H5) on the intention to use LBA. In terms of privacy risks and trust, as mentioned above we found the significant negative influence from privacy risks on intention to use (H3), but positive influence from trust, which supported H6 (trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The moderating effect of trust on the negative relationship between privacy risks and intention to use LBA was tested and confirmed by supporting H7 (privacy risks X trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The two hypotheses regarding to the TAM, including H8 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ perceived usefulness) and H9 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported; however, H10 (perceived effectiveness ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Results of this study offer the following key findings and implications. First the application of PCM was found to be a good analysis framework in the context of LBA adoption. Many of the hypotheses in the model were confirmed and the high value of $R^2$ (i.,e., 51%) indicated a good fit of the model. In particular, locatability and privacy risks are found to be the appropriate PCM-based antecedent variables. Second, the existence of moderating effect of trust on service provider suggests that the same marginal change in the level of privacy risks may differentially influence the intention to use LBA. That is, while the privacy risks increasingly become important social issues and will negatively influence the intention to use LBA, it is critical for LBA providers to build consumer trust and confidence to successfully mitigate this negative impact. Lastly, we could not find sufficient evidence that the intention to use LBA is influenced by perceived usefulness, which has been very well supported in most previous TAM research. This may suggest that more future research should examine the validity of applying TAM and further extend or modify it in the context of LBA or other similar smartphone apps.

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Development Process and Methods of Audit and Certification Toolkit for Trustworthy Digital Records Management Agency (신뢰성 있는 전자기록관리기관 감사인증도구 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Rieh, Hae-young;Kim, Ik-han;Yim, Jin-Hee;Shim, Sungbo;Jo, YoonSun;Kim, Hyojin;Woo, Hyunmin
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.25
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    • pp.3-46
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    • 2010
  • Digital records management is one whole system in which many social and technical elements are interacting. To maintain the trustworthiness, the repository needs periodical audit and certification. Thus, individual electronic records management agency needs toolkit that can be used to self-evaluate their trustworthiness continuously, and self-assess their atmosphere and system to recognize deficiencies. The purpose of this study is development of self-certification toolkit for repositories, which synthesized and analysed such four international standard and best practices as OAIS Reference Model(ISO 14721), TRAC, DRAMBORA, and the assessment report conducted and published by TNA/UKDA, as well as MoRe2 and current national laws and standards. As this paper describes and demonstrate the development process and the framework of this self-certification toolkit, other electronic records management agencies could follow the process and develop their own toolkit reflecting their situation, and utilize the self-assessment results in-house. As a result of this research, 12 areas for assessment were set, which include (organizational) operation management, classification system and master data management, acquisition, registration and description, storage and preservation, disposal, services, providing finding aids, system management, access control and security, monitoring/audit trail/statistics, and risk management. In each 12 area, the process map or functional charts were drawn and business functions were analyzed, and 54 'evaluation criteria', consisted of main business functional unit in each area were drawn. Under each 'evaluation criteria', 208 'specific evaluation criteria', which supposed to be implementable, measurable, and provable for self-evaluation in each area, were drawn. The audit and certification toolkit developed by this research could be used by digital repositories to conduct periodical self-assessment of the organization, which would be used to supplement any found deficiencies and be used to reflect the organizational development strategy.

Predictive Modeling for the Growth of Salmonella Enterica Serovar Typhimurium on Lettuce Washed with Combined Chlorine and Ultrasound During Storage

  • Park, Shin Young;Zhang, Cheng Yi;Ha, Sang-Do
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.374-379
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    • 2019
  • This study developed predictive growth models of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium on lettuce washed with chlorine (100~300 ppm) and ultrasound (US, 37 kHz, 380 W) treatment and stored at different temperatures ($10{\sim}25^{\circ}C$) using a polynomial equation. The primary model of specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) showed a good fit ($R^2{\geq}0.92$) with a Gompertz equation. A secondary model was obtained using a quadratic polynomial equation. The appropriateness of the secondary SGR and LT model was verified by coefficient of determination ($R^2=0.98{\sim}0.99$ for internal validation, 0.97~0.98 for external validation), mean square error (MSE=-0.0071~0.0057 for internal validation, -0.0118~0.0176 for external validation), bias factor ($B_f=0.9918{\sim}1.0066$ for internal validation, 0.9865~1.0205 for external validation), and accuracy factor ($A_f=0.9935{\sim}1.0082$ for internal validation, 0.9799~1.0137 for external validation). The newly developed models for S. Typhimurium could be incorporated into a tertiary modeling program to predict the growth of S. Typhimurium as a function of combined chlorine and US during the storage. These new models may also be useful to predict potential S. Typhimurium growth on lettuce, which is important for food safety purposes during the overall supply chain of lettuce from farm to table. Finally, the models may offer reliable and useful information of growth kinetics for the quantification microbial risk assessment of S. Typhimurium on washed lettuce.

The Study on the Marine Eco-toxicity and Ecological Risk of Treated Discharge Water from Ballast Water Management System Using Electrolysis (전기분해원리를 이용한 선박평형수관리장치의 배출수에 대한 해양생태독성 및 해양환경위해성에 관한 연구)

  • Shon, M.B.;Son, M.H.;Lee, J.;Son, Y.J.;Lee, G.H.;Moon, C.H.;Kim, Y.S.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.88-101
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    • 2013
  • The International Convention for the Control and Management of Ship's Ballast Water and Sediments was adopted at 2004 and then various BWMS (ballast water management system) have been developed. In this study, WET (whole effluent toxicity) test with algae (diatom) Skeletonema costatum as primary producer, invertebrate (rotifera) Brachionus plicatilis as 1st consumer and fish (olive flounder) Paralichthys olivaceus as predator, chemical analysis and ERA (environmental risk assessment) were conducted to assess the unacceptable effect on marine ecosystem by emitting the discharge water treated with AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS using electrolysis as main treatment equipment for removing the marine organisms in the ship's ballast water. The most sensitive test organism on discharge water treated with AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS was S. costatum that gave the NOEC value of 25.00%, LOEC value of 50.00% and 72hr-$EC_{50}$ value of 69.97% from WET test result for 20 psu salinity treated discharge water. NOEC and LOEC value of B. plicatilis and P. olivaceus exposed at 20 psu salinity treated discharge water were 50.00% and 100.00%, respectively. In the chemical analysis results, total number of substances produced by AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS was 18 which were bromate, 7 volatile halogenated organic compounds, 7 halogenated acetic acids, 3 halogenated acetonitriles and chloropicrin. Eighteen substances did not consider as persistence and bioaccumulative chemicals. Uncertainty of toxic property of 18 substances was high. PECs of 18 substances calculated by MAMPEC model were ranged from $4.58{\times}10^{-4}$ to $4.87{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, PNECs of them were ranged from $1.6{\times}10^{-2}$ to $3.2{\times}10^2{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$. And, the PEC/PNEC ratio of 18 substances did not exceed 1. Therefore, ERA for produced substances indicate that the discharge water treated with AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS does not pose unacceptable effect on marine life. And $EC_{50}$ value of S. costatum on discharge water treated by BWMS using the electrolysis had positive correlation with initial TRO concentration, concentration and kind & level of HAAs.

Estimation of Amount and Frequency of Consumption of 50 Domestic Livestock and Processed Livestock Products (국내 50가지 축산물 및 축산가공 식품의 섭취량 및 섭취빈도 조사)

  • Park, Jin Hwa;Cho, Joon Il;Joo, In Sun;Heo, Jin Jae;Yoon, Ki Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.45 no.8
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    • pp.1177-1191
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    • 2016
  • Estimation of food consumption details, such as portion size and frequency of consumption, is needed for exposure assessment step in microbiological risk assessment. This study investigated the amounts and frequencies of 50 kinds of consumed livestock products. A quantitative survey was performed by trained interviewers in face-to-face interviews with 1,500 adults aged over 19, who were randomly selected from seven major provinces in Korea. Respondents received a picture of one serving size for each of the 50 livestock products, including meats, processed meat products, milk and dairy products, and eggs and processed egg products. A t-test and general linear model were carried out using SPSS statistics. The most important factor affecting consumption of livestock products was residence area. The most frequently consumed food was milk (2.6 times/week), followed by pork (1.4 times/week), liquid yogurt (1.3 times/week), rolled omelet (1.2 times/week), semisolid yogurt (1.0 times/week), steamed egg (1.0 times/week), ice cream (0.9 times/week), chicken (0.8 times/week), low fat milk (0.7 times/week), and beef (0.6 times/week). In the case of consumption amount, people living in a city consumed meat (beef, pork, chicken, and duck) 1.5 times more than those living in a village, whereas milk and dairy products and eggs and processed egg products were consumed more frequently by people living in a town. When people eat meat, they consume twice the amount of one serving size. Students consumed livestock and processed livestock products more frequently with greater portions all at once. People living in Seoul, Incheon/Gyeonggi, and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam consumed livestock products more frequently in large amounts. Data from this study can be used for risk assessment of livestock and processed livestock products as well as education for safe consumption of livestock products.

Analysis of Competency Assessment Using BSA for ODA Loan Construction Projects (BSA기법을 활용한 ODA건설사업 역량 요인 도출 및 분석)

  • Kim, Hwa-Rang;Jang, Hyoun-Seung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2012
  • Recently, with achieved US$ 500 Billion international cumulative construction order, the Korean government presented overseas construction industry visions for international orders of US$ 100 Billion and entering the top five countries in global construction market. Also, Korean companies are developing strategies for expansion of international markets. However, ODA loan projects are low risk for the Korea Construction companies trying to advance their overseas business. This study provides data-based advice on securing competence for Korean construction companies entering the global market through the ODA loan projects. To analysis construction firm's competitiveness for ODA loan project, FGD was utilized and BSA model was applied to the valuable analysis. Competencies highly assessed were construction quality control, relationship building through high-level diplomatic activities, and project management. Competencies requiring urgent improvement were handling risks of local countries, financing projects, and developing know-how within participating companies.

Comparing the Performance of Three Severity Scoring Systems for ICU Patients: APACHE III, SAPS II, MPM II (중환자 중증도 평가도구의 타당도 평가 - APACHE III, SAPS II, MPM II)

  • Kwon, Young-Dae;Hwang, Jeong-Hae;Kim, Eun-Kyung
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.276-282
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    • 2005
  • Objectives : To evaluate the predictive validity of three scoring systems; the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation(APACHE) III, simplified acute physiology score(SAPS) II, and mortality probability model(MPM) II systems in critically ill patients. Methods : A concurrent and retrospective study conducted by collecting data on consecutive patients admitted to the intensive care unit(ICU) including surgical, medical and coronary care unit between January 1, 2004, and March 31, 2004. Data were collected on 348 patients consecutively admitted to the ICU(aged 16 years or older, no transfer, ICU stay at least 8 hours). Three models were analyzed using logistic regression. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves, sensitivity, specificity, and correct classification rate. Calibration was assessed using the Lemeshow-Hosmer goodness of fit H-statistic. Results : For the APACHE III, SAPS II and MPM II systems, the area under the receiver operating characterist ic(ROC) curves were 0.981, 0.978, and 0.941 respectively. With a predicted risk of 0.5, the sensitivities for the APACHE III, SAPS II, and MPM II systems were 81.1, 79.2 and 71.7%, the specificities 98.3, 98.6, and 98.3%, and the correct classification rates 95.7, 95.7, and 94.3%, respectively. The SAPS II and APACHE III systems showed good calibrations(chi-squared H=2.5838 p=0.9577 for SAPS II, and chi-squared H=4.3761 p=0.8217 for APACHE III). Conclusions : The APACHE III and SAPS II systems have excellent powers of mortality prediction, and calibration, and can be useful tools for the quality assessment of intensive care units(ICUs).