• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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Prediction of Potential Risk Posed by a Military Gunnery Range after Flood Control Reservoir Construction (홍수조절지 건설 후 사격장 주변지역의 위해성예측 사례연구)

  • Ryu, Hye-Rim;Han, Joon-Kyoung;Nam, Kyoung-Phile;Bae, Bum-Han
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2007
  • Risk assessment was carried out in order to improve the remediation and management strategy on a contaminated gunnery site, where a flood control reservoir is under construction nearby. Six chemicals, including explosive chemicals and heavy metals, which were suspected to possess risk to humans by leaching events from the site were the target pollutants for the assessment. A site-specific conceptual site model was constructed based on effective, reasonable exposure pathways to avoid any overestimation of the risk. Also, conservative default values were adapted to prevent underestimation of the risk when site-specific values were not available. The risks of the six contaminants were calculated by API's Decision Support System for Exposure and Risk Assessment with several assumptions. In the crater-formed-area(Ac), the non-carcinogenic risks(i.e., HI values) of TNT(Tri-Nitro-Toluene) and Cd were slightly larger than 1, and for RDX(Royal Demolition Explosives), over 50. The total non-carcinogenic risk of the whole gunnery range calculated to a significantly high value of 62.5. Carcinogenicity of Cd was estimated to be about $10^{-3}$, while that of Pb was about $5\;{\times}\;10^{-4}$, which greatly exceeded the generally acceptable carcinogenic risk level of $10^{-4}{\sim}10^{-6}$. The risk assessment results suggest that an immediate remediation practice for both carcinogens and non-carcinogens are required before the reservoir construction. However, for more accurate risk assessment, more specific estimations on condition shifts due to the construction of the reservoir are required, and more over, the effects of the pollutants to the ecosystem is also necessary to be evaluated.

Predicting Environmental Concentrations of Selected Pharmaceuticals Using the PhATETM Model in Keum-River, Korea (PhATETM 모형을 적용한 금강수계 중 의약물질 농도 추정)

  • Lim, Deuck-Soon;Park, Jeong-Im
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2009
  • In recent years, pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment have become a matter of increasing public concern. Environmental risk assessment (ERA), including an exposure assessment, is considered the best scientifically based approach for evaluating the potential effects of pharmaceuticals on ecosystems. Computerized exposure models constitute an important tool in predicting environmental exposures of pharmaceuticals. This paper presents the applicability of an exposure model by comparing measured data of selected pharmaceuticals with predicted environmental concentrations from an exposure model. $PhATE^{TM}$ (Pharmaceutical Assessment and Transport Evaluation) model developed by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) was adapted to run simulations for the Keum River. A set of 7 pharmaceuticals of high production in Korea was modeled. The PECs generated by the $PhATE^{TM}$ model that were then compared to the measured concentrations. The $PhATE^{TM}$ model predicted concentrations for 7 pharmaceuticals including acetaminophen, acetylsalicylic acid, erythromycin, ibuprofen, lincomycin, mefenamic acid, and naproxen were in good agreement with actual measured concentrations, which demonstrated the utility of $PhATE^{TM}$ as a predictive tool. In conclusion, $PhATE^{TM}$, although it does not intend to accurately represent reality, could be utilized for rapid predictions of the environmental concentrations of pharmaceuticals.

Slope Stability Assessment on a Landslide Risk Area in Ulsan During Rainfall (울산 산사태 위험지역의 강우 침투 안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Jinwook;Shin, Hosung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2016
  • Conventional warning criteria for landslides due to rainfall in broad regions have limitations, because they did not have proper reflection of topography, forest physiognomy, and unsaturated soil properties, et al. This study suggested a new stability model for unsaturated slope analyses during rainfall, considering rainfall pattern, geomorphological characteristics (slope angle, soil depth), engineering properties of unsaturated soils, and tree surcharge and root reinforcement. Stability analysis not considering root reinforcement and tree surcharge tends to over-predict a factor of safety in unsaturated slopes. Developed slope stability model was used to build database on the factor of safety in unsaturated slopes during rainfall, and it was integrated with GIS to do quantitative risk analysis in landslide risk areas specified in Ulju. Landslide risk areas were located at downstream of the point with sudden drop in safety factor, as well as at regions with low safety factor during rainfall.

Quantitative Assessment the Relationship between p21 rs1059234 Polymorphism and Cancer Risk

  • Huang, Yong-Sheng;Fan, Qian-Qian;Li, Chuang;Nie, Meng;Quan, Hong-Yang;Wang, Lin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.4435-4438
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    • 2015
  • p21 is a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, which can arrest cell proliferation and serve as a tumor suppressor. Though many studies were published to assess the relationship between p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and various cancer risks, there was no definite conclusion on this association. To derive a more precise quantitative assessment of the relationship, a large scale meta-analysis of 5,963 cases and 8,405 controls from 16 eligible published case-control studies was performed. Our analysis suggested that rs1059234 was not associated with the integral cancer risk for both dominant model [(T/T+C/T) vs C/C, OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.84-1.18] and recessive model [T/T vs (C/C+C/T), OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.93-1.15)]. However, further stratified analysis showed rs1059234 was greatly associated with the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck (SCCHN). Thus, larger scale primary studies are still required to further evaluate the interaction of p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and cancer risk in specific cancer subtypes.

Formal Fire Safety Assessment on Passenger Ships: Application of Cost-Benefit Analysis and Decision-Making Approach (여객선의 공식 화재안전 평가: 비용-이득 및 의사결정 평가)

  • Kim, Soo Woong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Mechanical Technology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2011
  • This paper examines the applicability of formal safety assessment to the passenger ships. This is followed by an analysis of passenger ship characteristics and a proposed formal safety assessment methodology. Five interlocking steps are described to construct a safety model including novel risk assessment, cost-benefit analysis and decision-making approaches. A case study is carried out in order to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Further development in formal safety assessment in the context of passenger ship safety is finally discussed in detail.

New Environmental Impact Assessment Technology (신환경영향평가기술(新環境影響評價技術)의 개발방향(開發方向))

  • Han, Sang-Wook;Lee, Jong-Ho;Nam, Young-Sook
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.277-290
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the problems of environmental impact assessment(EIA) and to suggest new EIA technology. The problems of EIA in Korea can be summarized as follows. First, the EIA does not reflect the impact of policy, plan and program on environment. Second, the project EIA does not consider the cumulative impacts such as additive impacts, synergistic impacts, threshold/saturation impacts, induced and indirect impacts, time-crowded impacts, and space-crowded impacts. Third, the EIA techniques in Korea are not standardized. Finally, the present EIA suggests only alternatives to reduce adverse impacts. To solve above-mentioned problems, the development of new EIA technology is essential. First, the new EIA technology should be developed toward pollution prevention technology and comprehensive and integrated environmental management technology. Second, new fields of EIA for pollution prevention contain strategic environmental assessment, cumulative impacts assessment, socio-economic impact assessment, cyber EIA and EIA technology necessary after the reunification of Korean Peninsula. Third, EIA technology for integrated environmental management contains the development of integated environment assessment system and the development of packaged EIA technology. The EIA technology for integrated environmental assessment system contains (1) development of integrated impact assessment technology combining air/water quality model, GIS and remote sensing, (2) integrated impact assessment of EIA, traffic impact assessment, population impact assessment and disaster impact assessment. (3) development of integrated technology combining risk assessment and EIA (4) development of integrated technology of life cycle assessment and EIA, (5) development of integrated technology of spatial planning and EIA, (6) EIA technology for biodiversity towards sustainable development, (7) mathematical model and GIS based location decision techniques, and (8) environmental monitoring and audit. Furthermore, there are some fields which need packaged EIA technology. In case of dam development, urban or industrial complex development, tourist development, landfill or combustion facilities construction, electric power plant development, development of port, road/rail/air port, is necessary the standardized and packaged EIA technology which considers the common characteristics of the same kind of development project.

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Risk-informed approach to the safety improvement of the reactor protection system of the AGN-201K research reactor

  • Ahmed, Ibrahim;Zio, Enrico;Heo, Gyunyoung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.764-775
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    • 2020
  • Periodic safety reviews (PSRs) are conducted on operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) and have been mandated also for research reactors in Korea, in response to the Fukushima accident. One safety review tool, the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aims to identify weaknesses in the design and operation of the research reactor, and to evaluate and compare possible safety improvements. However, the PSA for research reactors is difficult due to scarce data availability. An important element in the analysis of research reactors is the reactor protection system (RPS), with its functionality and importance. In this view, we consider that of the AGN-201K, a zero-power reactor without forced decay heat removal systems, to demonstrate a risk-informed safety improvement study. By incorporating risk- and safety-significance importance measures, and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, the proposed method identifies critical components in the RPS reliability model, systematically proposes potential safety improvements and ranks them to assist in the decision-making process.

Asbestos Exposure and Health Risk Assessment in Asbestos-Containing Buildings (석면함유 건축물의 석면 노출 및 위해성 평가)

  • Jeong, Jae-Won;Kim, Kwang-Su;Cho, Sun-Ja;Lee, Sang-Joon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.1069-1078
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    • 2012
  • This study was performed to evaluate the asbestos exposure levels and to calculate excess lifetime cacer risks(ELCRs) in asbestos-containing buildings for maintenance and management. The range of airborne asbestos concentration of 33 buildings was 0.0018 ~ 0.0126 f/cc and one site exceeded indoor air-quality recommended limit 0.01 f/cc. And ELCRs based on US EPA IRIS(Integrated risk information system) model are 1.5E-06 ~ 3.9E-05 levels, and there was no site showed 1.0E-04 (one person per million) level or more, and 11 sites showed 1.0E-05 (one person per 100,000 people) level or more. To prevent the release of asbestos fibers, it needs operation and maintenance of asbestos-containing building materials, and there are some methods such as removal, repairment, enclosure and encapsulation. In conclusion, a risk-based air action level for asbestos in air is an appropriate metric for asbestos-containing building management.

The Architectural Analysis of the Buddy System for Qualitative Risk Analysis (정성적 위험 분석을 위한 버디 시스템의 구조 분석)

  • Jeongwon Yoon;Kim, Hong-Keun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institutes of Information Security and Cryptology Conference
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    • 1995.11a
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 1995
  • The importance of the risk analysis tool has been recognized and its use also has been emphasized by a number of researchers recently The methodology were examined but neither algorithms nor practical applications have been implemented or practiced in Korea. In this paper, the architecture of the Buddy System, one of the automated risk assessment tools. is analyzed in depth to provide the algorithmic understanding and to promote the development of the risk analysis methodology. The Buddy System mainly uses three main factors of vulnerability, threat and countermeasures as a nucleus of the qualatative analysis with the modified loss expectancy value. These factors are identified and assessed by the separation of duties between the end user and security analyst. The Buddy System uses five axioms as its bases of assessment algorithm and the assessed vulnerability level is strictly within these axioms. Since the In-place countermeasures reduce the vulnerability level up to a certain level. the security analyst may use "what if " model to examine the impact of additional countermeasures by proposing each to reduce the vulnerability level further to within the acceptable range. The emphasis on the qualitative approach on vulnerability leveling is very well balanced with the quantitative analysis that the system performance is prominent.prominent.

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Risk Priority Analysis for Preventing Electrical Fires in Food Manufacturing Electrical Facilities (식료품제조업 전기설비의 전기화재방지를 위한 위험우선순위 분석)

  • Seung Ku Lee;Doo Hyun Kim;Sung Chul Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.16-26
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to introduce a method for risk assessment analysis aimed at preventing electrical fires within the manufacturing industry. Initially, we provided a functional block diagram illustrating the electrical equipment employed in various processes within a food manufacturing company in Chungcheongbuk-do. Subsequently, we categorized the components of each machine outlined in the functional block diagram and determined the priority of failure for each classified component. Upon implementing the model in the frying process of the food manufacturing company, specific components, including MC, motor, mixer heater, electric wiring, and terminal block, exhibit a risk priority number (RPN) of 40 or higher. This identified an electrical issue within the manufacturing process and environment. Consequently, we propose a methodology to identify latent failure modes that could escalate into fires or systemic issues if not promptly addressed. It is essential to note that while the FMEA presented in this study may not immediately impact food manufacturing, its applicability extends to various workplaces.