• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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Determination of Target Clean-up Level and Risk-Based Remediation Strategy (위해성에 근거한 정화목표 산정 및 복원전략 수립)

  • Ryu, Hye-Rim;Han, Joon-Kyoung;Nam, Kyoung-Phile
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.73-86
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    • 2007
  • Risk-based remediation strategy (RBRS) is a consistent decision-making process for the assessment and response to chemical release based on protecting human health and the environment. The decision-making process described integrates exposure and risk assessment practices with site assessment activities and remedial action selection to ensure that the chosen actions are protective of human health and the environment. The general sequences of events in Tier 1 is as follows: initial site assessment, development of conceptual site model with all exposure pathways, data collection on pollutants and receptors, and identification of risk-based screening level (RBSL). If site conditions do not meet RBSL, it needs further site-specific tier evaluation, Tier 2. In most cases, only limited number of exposure pathways, exposure scenarios, and chemicals of concern are considered the Tier 2 evaluation since many are eliminated from consideration during the Tier 1 evaluation. In spite of uncertainties due to the conservatism applied to risk calculations, limitation in site-specific data collections, and variables affecting the selection of target risk levels and exposure factors, RBRS provides us time- and cost-effectiveness of the remedial action. To ensure reliance of the results, the development team should consider land and resource use, cumulative risks, and additive effects. In addition, it is necessary to develop appropriate site assessment guideline and reliable toxicity assessment method, and to study on site-specific parameters and exposure parameters in Korea.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment on Legionella Infection in Children Playing in Interactive Fountains (바닥분수에서 물놀이를 하는 아동들의 Legionella균 감염 위해도 분석)

  • Lee, In-Sup;Zo, Young-Gun
    • Korean Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.360-368
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    • 2013
  • Recently interactive water fountains are gaining popularity in making public facilities in South Korea. The total number of interactive fountains is rapidly growing at the rate of >50% annually. In this study, we performed quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate infection risks in children by Legionella spp. while playing in interactive fountains. The exposure dose for a given concentration of Legionella in water was calculated using water-aerosol partition rate of Legionella, exposure duration, inhalation rate, and deposit rate of aerosols in the lungs following inhalation. The dose was converted to infection risk by using the dose-response function developed for L. pneumophila. High weight and/or old children, i.e., 12-year children, running around in fountains were the highest risk group by showing >0.05 infection probability for fountain waters containing ${\geq}10^4$ CFU/L Legionella. The result supported the current guideline by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which permits use of water with < $10^3$ CFU/L Legionella cells for all purposes. However, the results still warrant further evaluation of the guideline to accommodate risks for children because the dose-response relationship in the model was developed for healthy adults. Further risk assessment studies need to be conducted by employing dose-response model for children who generally carries weaker immune system than adults.

Influence line- model correction approach for the assessment of engineering structures using novel monitoring techniques

  • Strauss, Alfred;Wendner, Roman;Frangopol, Dan M.;Bergmeister, Konrad
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2012
  • In bridge engineering, maintenance strategies and thus budgetary demands are highly influenced by construction type and quality of design. Nowadays bridge owners and planners tend to include life-cycle cost analyses in their decision processes regarding the overall design trying to optimize structural reliability and durability within financial constraints. Smart permanent and short term monitoring can reduce the associated risk of new design concepts by observing the performance of structural components during prescribed time periods. The objectives of this paper are the discussion and analysis of influence line or influence field approaches in terms of (a) an efficient incorporation of monitoring information in the structural performance assessment, (b) an efficient characterization of performance indicators for the assessment of structures, (c) the ability of optimizing the positions of sensors of a monitoring system, and (d) the ability of checking the robustness of the monitoring systems applied to a structure. The proposed influence line- model correction approach has been applied to an integrative monitoring system that has been installed for the performance assessment of an existing three-span jointless bridge.

Nonlinear seismic analysis of a super 13-element reinforced concrete beam-column joint model

  • Adom-Asamoah, Mark;Banahene, Jack Osei
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.905-924
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    • 2016
  • Several two-dimensional analytical beam column joint models with varying complexities have been proposed in quantifying joint flexibility during seismic vulnerability assessment of non-ductile reinforced concrete (RC) frames. Notable models are the single component rotational spring element and the super element joint model that can effectively capture the governing inelastic mechanisms under severe ground motions. Even though both models have been extensively calibrated and verified using quasi-static test of joint sub-assemblages, a comparative study of the inelastic seismic responses under nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) of RC frames has not been thoroughly evaluated. This study employs three hypothetical case study RC frames subjected to increasing ground motion intensities to study their inherent variations. Results indicate that the super element joint model overestimates the transient drift ratio at the first story and becomes highly un-conservative by under-predicting the drift ratios at the roof level when compared to the single-component model and the conventional rigid joint assumption. In addition, between these story levels, a decline in the drift ratios is observed as the story level increased. However, from this limited study, there is no consistent evidence to suggest that care should be taken in selecting either a single or multi component joint model for seismic risk assessment of buildings when a global demand measure such as maximum inter-storey drift is employed in the seismic assessment framework.

Real-time unsaturated slope reliability assessment considering variations in monitored matric suction

  • Choi, Jung Chan;Lee, Seung Rae;Kim, Yunki;Song, Young Hoon
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.263-274
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    • 2011
  • A reliability-based slope stability assessment method considering fluctuations in the monitored matric suction was proposed for real-time identification of slope risk. The assessment model was based on the limit equilibrium model for infinite slope failure. The first-order reliability method (FORM) was adopted to calculate the probability of slope failure, and results of the model were compared with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) results to validate the accuracy and efficiency of the model. The analysis shows that a model based on Advanced First-Order Reliability Method (AFORM) generates results that are in relatively good agreement with those of the MCS, using a relatively small number of function calls. The contribution of random variables to the slope reliability index was also examined using sensitivity analysis. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the effective cohesion c' is a significant variable at low values of mean matric suction, whereas matric suction ($u_a-u_w$) is the most influential factor at high mean suction values. Finally, the reliability indices of an unsaturated model soil slope, which was monitored by a wireless matric suction measurement system, were illustrated as 2D images using the suggested probabilistic model.

Urban Flood Risk Assessment Considering Climate Change Using Bayesian Probability Statistics and GIS: A Case Study from Seocho-Gu, Seoul (베이지안 확률통계와 GIS를 연계한 기후변화 도시홍수 리스크 평가: 서울시 서초구를 대상으로)

  • LEE, Sang-Hyeok;KANG, Jung-Eun;PARK, Chang-Sug
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.36-51
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    • 2016
  • This study assessed urban flood risk using a Bayesian probability statistical method and GIS incorporating a climate change scenario. Risk is assessed based on a combination of hazard probability and its consequences, the degree of impact. Flood probability was calculated on the basis of a Bayesian model and future flood occurrence likelihoods were estimated using climate change scenario data. The flood impacts include human and property damage. Focusing on Seocho-gu, Seoul, the findings are as follows. Current flood probability is high in areas near rivers, as well as low lying and impervious areas, such as Seocho-dong and Banpo-dong. Flood risk areas are predicted to increase by a multiple of 1.3 from 2030 to 2050. Risk assessment results generally show that human risk is relatively high in high-rise residential zones, whereas property risk is high in commercial zones. The magnitude of property damage risk for 2050 increased by 6.6% compared to 2030. The proposed flood risk assessment method provides detailed spatial results that will contribute to decision making for disaster mitigation.

3D Terrain Model Application for Explosion Assessment

  • Kim, Hyung-Seok;Chang, Eun-Mi;Kim, In-Won
    • 한국지역지리학회:학술대회
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    • 2009.08a
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 2009
  • An increase in oil and gas plants caused by development of process industry have brought into the increase in use of flammable and toxic materials in the complex process under high temperature and pressure. There is always possibility of fire and explosion of dangerous chemicals, which exist as raw materials, intermediates, and finished goods whether used or stored in the industrial plants. Since there is the need of efforts on disaster damage reduction or mitigation process, we have been conducting a research to relate explosion model on the background of real 3D terrain model. By predicting the extent of damage caused by recent disasters, we will be able to improve efficiency of recovery and, sure, to take preventive measure and emergency counterplan in response to unprepared disaster. For disaster damage prediction, it is general to conduct quantitative risk assessment, using engineering model for environmentaldescription of the target area. There are different engineering models, according to type of disaster, to be used for industry disaster such as UVCE (Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion), BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Evaporation Vapor Explosion), Fireball and so on, among them.we estimate explosion damage through UVCE model which is used in the event of explosion of high frequency and severe damage. When flammable gas in a tank is released to the air, firing it brings about explosion, then we can assess the effect of explosion. As 3D terrain information data is utilized to predict and estimate the extent of damage for each human and material. 3D terrain data with synthetic environment (SEDRIS) gives us more accurate damage prediction for industrial disaster and this research will show appropriate prediction results.

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APPLICATION OF 3D TERRAIN MODEL FOR INDUSTRY DISASTER ASSESSMENT

  • Kim, Hyung-Seok;Cho, Hyoung-Ki;Chang, Eun-Mi;Kim, In-Hyun;Kim, In-Won
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.3-5
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    • 2008
  • An increase in oil and gas plants caused by development of process industry have brought into the increase in use of flammable and toxic materials in the complex process under high temperature and pressure. There is always possibility of fire and explosion of dangerous chemicals, which exist as raw materials, intermediates, and finished goods whether used or stored in the industrial plants. Since there is the need of efforts on disaster damage reduction or mitigation process, we have been conducting a research to relate explosion model on the background of real 3D terrain model. By predicting the extent of damage caused by recent disasters, we will be able to improve efficiency of recovery and, sure, to take preventive measure and emergency counterplan in response to unprepared disaster. For disaster damage prediction, it is general to conduct quantitative risk assessment, using engineering model for environmental description of the target area. There are different engineering models, according to type of disaster, to be used for industry disaster such as UVCE (Unconfined Vapour Cloud Explosion), BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Evaporation Vapour Explosion), Fireball and so on, among them, we estimate explosion damage through UVCE model which is used in the event of explosion of high frequency and severe damage. When flammable gas in a tank is released to the air, firing it brings about explosion, then we can assess the effect of explosion. As 3D terrain information data is utilized to predict and estimate the extent of damage for each human and material. 3D terrain data with synthetic environment (SEDRIS) gives us more accurate damage prediction for industrial disaster and this research will show appropriate prediction results.

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Development of Korean Food-Chemical Ranking and Scoring System (Food-CRS-Korea) and Its Application to Prioritizing Food Toxic Chemicals Associated with Environmental Pollutants (환경유래 식품오염물질의 우선순위 선정 기법 (Food-CRS-Korea)의 개발과 적용)

  • Yang, Ji-Yeon;Jang, Ji-Young;Kim, Soo-Hwaun;Kim, Yoon-Kwan;Lee, Hyo-Min;Shin, Dong-Chun;Lim, Young-Wook
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2010
  • The aims of this study were to develop the suitable "system software" in chemical ranking and scoring (CRS) for the food hazardous chemicals associated with environmental emission and to suggest the priority lists of food contamination by environmental-origined pollutants. Study materials were selected with reference to the priority pollutants list for environment and food management from domestic and foreign research and the number of study materials is 103 pollutants (18 heavy metals, 10 PBTs, 10 EDs, and 65 organic compounds). The Food-CRS-Korea system consisted of the environmental fate model via multimedia, transfer environment to food model, and health risk assessment by contaminated food intake. We have established that health risks of excess cancer risks, hazard quotients (HQs) by chronic toxicity and HQs by reproductive toxicity convert to score, respectively. The creditable scoring system was designed to consider uncertainty of quantitative risk assessment based on VOI (Value-Of-Information). The predictability of the Food-CRS-Korea model was evaluated by comparing the presumable values and the measured ones of the environmental media and foodstuffs. The priority lists based on emissions with background-level-correction are 15 pollutants such as arsenic, cadmium, and etc. The priority lists based on environmental monitoring date are 17 pollutants including DEHP, TCDD, and so on. Consequently, we suggested the priority lists of 13 pollutants by considering the several emission and exposure scenarios. According to the Food-CRS-Korea system, arsenics, cadmium, chromes, DEHP, leads, and nickels have high health risk rates and reliable grades.

Human Health Risk, Environmental and Economic Assessment Based on Multimedia Fugacity Model for Determination of Best Available Technology (BAT) for VOC Reduction in Industrial Complex (산업단지 VOC 저감 최적가용기법(BAT) 선정을 위한 다매체 거동모델 기반 인체위해성·환경성·경제성 평가)

  • Kim, Yelin;Rhee, Gahee;Heo, Sungku;Nam, Kijeon;Li, Qian;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.325-345
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    • 2020
  • Determination of Best available technology (BAT) was suggested to reduce volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in a petrochemical industrial complex, by conducting human health risk, environmental, and economic assessment based on multimedia fugacity model. Fate and distribution of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) was predicted by the multimedia fugacity model, which represent VOCs emitted from the industrial complex in U-city. Media-integrated human health risk assessment and sensitivity analysis were conducted to predict the human health risk of BTEX and identify the critical variable which has adverse effects on human health. Besides, the environmental and economic assessment was conducted to determine the BAT for VOCs reduction. It is concluded that BTEX highly remained in soil media (60%, 61%, 64% and 63%), and xylene has remained as the highest proportion of BTEX in each environment media. From the candidates of BAT, the absorption was excluded due to its high human health risk. Moreover, it is identified that the half-life and exposure coefficient of each exposure route are highly correlated with human health risk by sensitivity analysis. In last, considering environmental and economic assessment, the regenerative thermal oxidation, the regenerative catalytic oxidation, the bio-filtration, the UV oxidation, and the activated carbon adsorption were determined as BAT for reducing VOCs in the petrochemical industrial complex. The suggested BAT determination methodology based on the media-integrated approach can contribute to the application of BAT into the workplace to efficiently manage the discharge facilities and operate an integrated environmental management system.