• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.64-74
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• 2021

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are rapidly emerging not only as a key military power, such as surveillance and reconnaissance for military purposes but also as a new air transportation means in the form of Urban Air Mobility (UAM). Currently, airworthiness certification is carried out focused on the verification of technical standards for flight safety suitability of aircraft design in accordance with the Military Aircraft Flight Safety Certification Act and does not employ the model for operational risk assessment for mission areas and airspace. In this study, in order to evaluate the risk of the mission area from the perspective of the UAS operator, a risk assessment simulation has been conducted by applying the Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) model to the operating environment of the Korean military UAS. Also, the validity of the SORA model has been verified through the analysis of simulation results, and a new application plan for airworthiness certification of the military unmanned aerial system has been presented.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.281-287
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• 2011

According to the Marine Traffic Safety Law, revised in 2009, Marine Traffic Safety Audit is introduced to secure the safe navigation, to prevent the marine accident and to maximize the efficiency of the port. In this audit system, marine traffic safety assessment is the most important scheme because the primary purpose of the audit system is to identify potential risk elements affecting safe navigation. Even though the reliability of audit result depends on the selection of assessment models, there are no independent assessment models for Korean coastal waters and most of models used in Korea currently are developed by foreign countries. Therefore, the development of the independent assessment model for Korean coastal water is required. This study, prior to the development of independent assessment model, aims to provide a basic data by comparing two foreign assessment models in Ulsan port area with marine accident statistics data.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.158-165
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• 2020

해상등부표는 선박 통항의 안전을 위해 필요한 시설로 파손 및 유실되는 경우 예상치 못한 예산 지출뿐 아니라 등부표 운용이 불가능해짐에 따라 선박 통항 안전에도 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 해역의 교통흐름을 반영할 수 있는 해상교통평가지표를 적용하여 등부표 접촉사고의 위험성을 평가하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 평가대상 해역을 등부표 설치기수가 많고 등부표 접촉사고가 많이 발생하는 부산항 제5항로로 설정하고, 대상해역의 등부표 접촉사고 현황을 조사했다. 그리고 해상교통평가지표로 사용될 수 있는 해상위험평가도구인 IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Programme(IWRAP MkII)와 Potential Assessment of Risk Model(PARK Model)를 활용하여 등부표 접촉사고 발생의 위험성을 평가했다. 그 결과, 마산항 입출항 선박과 부산항신항 입출항 선박으로 교통흐름이 복잡한 경계해역 인근에 위치한 등부표와 항로를 따르지 않는 선박들이 항로를 가로지르는 운항패턴을 보이는 가덕수도 입구 인근에 위치한 등부표, 부산항신항 내항항로의 방파제 인근에 위치한 등부표가 접촉사고 위험성이 큰 것으로 평가되었다. 본 연구는 등부표 사고 위험성을 평가할 수 있는 통합 모델을 만드는 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있으며, 추후에 다양한 해역의 접촉사고 위험성을 평가하고, 미래교통량을 추정·적용하여 등부표 신설 시 안전한 등부표 설치 위치를 선정할 수 있을 것이다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.11-19
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• 2009

We conducted human risk assessment due to inhalation exposure to heavy metals emitted from incinerator. The process of health impact assessment(HIA) on incinerator is as follows: The first step is to presume and calculate the amount of heavy metals emitted using emission factor. The second step is to conduct an exposure assessment using the K-SCREEN model which is used for predicting the concentration in a conservative method. The last step is to carry out a risk assessment on carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances. This study revealed that rank of carcinogenic human risk was $Cr^{+6}$ > As > Ni > Cd, and values of human risk assessment on carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances is lower than the US criteria for risk assessment except $Cr^{+6}$. It is expected that the technique of HIA, especially human risk assessment on heavy metals, would be applied to the incinerator construction project. In addition, more systematic studies are needed to overcome some weak points and limits found in this study.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.59-67
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• 2020

This study aims to develop the fuzzy risk assessment model of the debris flow to verify the accuracy of risk assessment in order to help related organizations reduce losses caused by landslides. In this study, actual cases of landslides that occurred are utilized as the database. The established models help us assess the occurrence of debris flows using computed indicators, and to verify the model errors. In addition, comparisons are made between the models to determine the best one to use in practical applications. The results prove that the risk assessment model systems are quite suitable for debris flow risk assessment. The reproduction consequences of highlight point discovery are shown in highlight guide coordinating toward discover steady and coordinating component focuses and effectively identified utilizing these two systems, by examining the variety in the distinguished highlights and the element coordinating.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.96-101
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• 2009

In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.185-202
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• 2000

Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.274-281
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• 2019

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni) infection from various jerky products in Korea. Methods: For the exposure assessment, the prevalence and predictive models of C. jejuni in the jerky and the temperature and time of the distribution and storage were investigated. In addition, the consumption amounts and frequencies of the products were also investigated. The data for C. jejuni for the prevalence, distribution temperature, distribution time, consumption amount, and consumption frequency were fitted with the @RISK fitting program to obtain appropriate probabilistic distributions. Subsequently, the dose-response models for Campylobacter were researched in the literature. Eventually, the distributions, predictive model, and dose-response model were used to make a simulation model with @RISK to estimate the risk of C. jejuni foodborne illness from the intake of jerky. Results: Among 275 jerky samples, there were no C. jejuni positive samples, and thus, the initial contamination level was statistically predicted with the RiskUniform distribution [RiskUniform (-2, 0.48)]. To describe the changes in the C. jejuni cell counts during distribution and storage, the developed predictive models with the Weibull model (primary model) and polynomial model (secondary model) were utilized. The appropriate probabilistic distribution was the BetaGeneral distribution, and it showed that the average jerky consumption was 51.83 g/d with a frequency of 0.61%. The developed simulation model from this data series and the dose-response model (Beta Poisson model) showed that the risk of C. jejuni foodborne illness per day per person from jerky consumption was $1.56{\times}10^{-12}$. Conclusion: This result suggests that the risk of C. jejuni in jerky could be considered low in Korea.

• 한국식품위생안전성학회지
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.319-326
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• 1999

최근 국내에서는 Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes등의 미생물에 대한 건강위해성이 강조되면서 미생물 위해성평가에 대한 필요성이 제기되고 있고, U.S.FPA, U.S.DA, FAO/WHO를 비롯한 국제기구 및 외국 유관기관들에서도 미생물 위해성평가 방법을 식품관리에 활용하고자 방법론 연구에 주력하고 있다. 미생물 위험성은 화학물질과 달리 인체건강에 대한 영향이 즉각적이고, 심각하게 나타나 정량적인 위해성평가가 용이하지 않고 유해화학물질과는 다른 평가방법이 요구된다. 식품중 미생물의 위해성평가는 크게 4단계로 구분되는데, 미생물관련질환 추세파악 및 미생물 관련질병에 관한 역학조사 등을 활용하는 위험성확인 단계와 실제 식품원료, 식품가공, 수송, 포장단계 중 식품의 물리적, 화학적 조건에 따른 미생물 변화를 고려하여 식품중 미생물에 대한 노출을 정량화하는 노출평가 단계, 미생물의 용량에 따른 질병발생에 근거하여 용량-반응관계를 규명하는 용량-반응평가 단계, 규명된 모델을 활용하여 모든 평가결과를 통합함으로 위해 도치 예측과 불확실성 분석 등을 수행하는 위해도결정단계로 구성되어 있다. 미생물 용량-반응평가는 크게 비역치(Nonthreshold)와 역치(Threshold) 평가 방법론으로 구분되는데, 비역치 평가방법론은 단일 병원균이 감염을 일으킬 수 있다는 것과 감염을 일으킬 수 있는 확률이 독립적이라는 가정을 전제로 하고, 역치평가방법론은 미생물이 감염을 일으키기 위해서 각기 개별 역치가 존재하는데 어느 정도의 미생물수가 모여 서로 작용해야 독성유발물질을 만들어 낸다는 가정을 전제로 한다. 현재 받아들여지고 있는 비역치 모델로는 Exponential, Beta-poisson, Gompertz, Gamma-weibull 모델 등이 있으며, 역치모델로는 Log-normal, Log-logistic모델 등이 있다. 본 연구에서는 인체 volunteer자료를 활용하여 용량-반응자료를 입력하고 용량-반응자료를 토대로 적합한 수학적 모델을 찾아내어, 선별한 모델의 적합도 검정을 실시하는 방법론 연구를 실시하였으며, 노출평가 자료와 용량-반응평가 결과를 연계하여 위해도를 결정하는 과정에 대해 연구하였다 이 밖에도 모델(Food MicroModel)을 이용하여 식품의 염도, 수분활성도, 온도, pH등의 조건에 따른 미생물의 성장률, 사멸률 등 변화를 예측할 수 있는 방법론 연구를 통해 식품의 최적 보관 조건등을 찾아내는 방법을 습득하였다. 미생물 위해성평가는 외국에서도 아직 초기 연구단계에 있으며 현재로서 사후조사자료인 역학자료보다 건강한 성인남자를 대상으로 한 volunteer 자료를 우선적으로 활용하고 있으나 노약자나 민감그룹에 대한 실험은 현실적으로 불가능하여 동물실험을 이용한 평가방법을 연구중에 있다. 추후 연구방향으로는 국내 volunteer들을 대상으로 한 미생물별 용량-반응결과를 토대로 population sensitivity를 비교할 수 있는 기초자료를 확보함으로써 미생물에 대한 인구집단의 반응 민감성 차이를 비교하고 시료채취 후 즉각적인 실험실적 분석이 가능토록하여 정확한 인체노출평가를 수행함으로써 미생물 위해성평가방법론을 식품미생물관리에 적용하는 것이다.

• Toxicological Research
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.317-329
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• 1992

Fifty chemicals are currently classified as human carcinogens based on epidemiologic and animal data. Humans are daily exposed to them from various sources of exposure via inhalation, dermal contact and oral ingestion. To reduce cancer risk to man, these human carcinogens should be appropriately regulated and monitored environmentally or biologically for routine human cancer risk assessment. A number of mathematical risk assessment models have been introduced, but any realistic and relevant model system is not available for humans. A mechanistic process for human cancer risk assessment was comprehensively reviewed and problems were also discussed. Here, a new conceptual approach using epidemiology and biological human monitoring was suggested for the most relevant method to study human cancer risk assessment.