• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.93-99
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• 2023

This study aimed to determine relationships among risk factors influencing container port operation using Bayesian network. Risk factors identified from prior studies were classified into five groups: human error, machinery error, environmental risk, security risk, and natural disasters. P anel experts discussed identified risk factors to fulfil conditional probability tables of the interdependence model. The interdependence model was also validated by sensitivity analysis and provided an interrelation of factors influencing the direction of each other. Results of the interdependence model were partially in line with results from prior studies while practices in the global port industry confirmed interrelationships of risk factors. In addition, the relationship between top-ranked risk factors can provide a schematic drawing of the model. Accordingly, results of this study can expand the prior research in the Korean port industry, which may help port authorities improve risk management and reduce losses from the risk.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.303-306
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• 2015

Purpose: This study was conducted to determine risk of developing of breast cancer among Turkish women. Materials and Methods: Using a descriptive and cross-sectional approach, data were collected from 231 women. Breast cancer risk was calculated using the National Cancer Institute's on-line verson of called as the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool or the Gail Risk Assesment Tool. Results: The average age of women was $45.0{\pm}8.06$ years. It was revealed that 6.1% of participants reported having first degree relatives who had had breast cancer, with only four women having more than one first-degree relative affected (1.7%). The mean five-year breast cancer risk for all women was $0.88{\pm}0.91%$, and 7.4% of women had a five-year breast cancer risk >1.66% in this study. Mean lifetime breast cancer risk up to age 90 years was $9.3{\pm}5.2%$. Conclusions: The breast cancer risk assessment tool can help in the clinical management of patient seeking advice concerning screening and prevention. Healthcare providers in Turkey can use this approach to estimate an individual's probability of developing breast cancer.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2001년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.241-247
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• 2001

A Fire Safety Evaluation Module(FSEM), which quantitatively evaluates the risk of evacuees when fire occurs in buildings or ships, is presented in this paper. The developed FSEM can be applied to multi-room structure. Basic input data for the FSEM are prepared by fire model and evacuation model. CFAST which is one of the existing fire models is used as fire model and MonteDEM evacuation model was developed for evacuation model, respectively. MonteDEM evacuation model makes use of distinct element method and Monte-Carlo simulation, and it can also take into consideration ground inclination by ship motions in order to simulate the real situation of evacuation. Some typical situations are modelled for illustrative examples and quantitative assessment of evacuee's risk under fire accident is carried out.

• 한국식품위생안전성학회지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.19-24
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• 2004

미생물 위해성 평가의 용량-반응 모델은 생물학적 모델과 경험적 모델로 나눌 수 있다. 생물학적 모델은 미생물의 분포형태, 미생물에 대한 숙주의 감수성, 감염을 일으킬 수 있는 미생물 수에 대한 가정을 바탕으로 성립된 모델로서, 대표적으로 Exponential model과 $\beta$-Poisson model이 있다. 경험적 모델은 주로 화학물질의 독성을 나타내는데 이용되어 온 모델로, Weibull-Gamma model등이 있다. 여러 용량-반응 모델 중에서 실험 데이터에 적합한 모델을 걱정하는 데에는 deviance function(Y)을 이용하며, 현재 일부 식중독균에 대해서는 사람과 실험동물에서의 용량-반응 모델이 연구되어 있다.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.217-223
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• 2017

In order to assess risk as a basic step for securing safety, it requires to select risk factors and determine the frequency and the severity of the consequence of each risk factor. This research adopted common risk factors among well-known maritime risk assessment models, and proposed objective criteria to gauge the risk level of each risk factor. The starting points of risk evolution were chosen for criteria according to related studies and seafarers' experience. The rate of risk appearance over the criteria is named as the incidence of risk factor. Therefore, the total risk level is expressed as the combination of incidence of each risk factor and severity. This quantitative method would be applied to measuring and comparing the risk level of target maritime zones, and it would also be useful to survey which risk factor be focused for reducing the total risk of a certain maritime zone.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제45권5호
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• pp.497-510
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• 2019

Objectives: The aim of this study was to secure the reliability of using the CalTOX model when evaluating LADD (or ADD) and Risk (or HQ) among local residents for the emission of BTEX (Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, Xylene) and by closely examining the difference in the confidence interval of the assessment outcomes according to the difference in the probability density function of input variables. Methods: The assessment was made by dividing it according to the method ($I^{\dagger}$) of inputting the probability density function in meteorological variables of the model with log-normal distribution and the method of inputting ($II^{\ddagger}$) after grasping the optimal probability density function using @Risk. A T-test was carried out in order to analyze the difference in confidence interval of the two assessment results. Results: It was evaluated to be 1.46E-03 mg/kg-d in LADD of Benzene, 1.96E-04 mg/kg-d in ADD of Toluene, 8.15E-05 mg/kg-d in ADD of Ethylbenzene, and 2.30E-04 mg/kg-d in ADD of Xylene. As for the predicted confidence interval in LADD and ADD, there was a significant difference between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods in $LADD_{Inhalation}$ for Benzene, and in $ADD_{Inhalation}$ and ADD for Toluene and Xylene. It appeared to be 3.58E-05 for risk in Benzene, 3.78E-03 for HQ in Toluene, 1.48E-03 for HQ in Ethylbenzene, and 3.77E-03 for HQ in Xylene. As a result of the HQ in Toluene and Xylene, the difference in confidence interval between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods was shown to be significant. Conclusions: The human risk assessment for BTEX was made by dividing it into the method ($I^{\dagger}$) of inputting the probability density function of meteorological variables for the CalTOX model with log-normal distribution, and the method of inputting ($II^{\ddagger}$) after grasping the optimal probability density function using @Risk. As a result, it was identified that Risk (or HQ) is the same, but that there is a significant difference in the confidence interval of Risk (or HQ) between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.373-383
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• 2006

The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.185-195
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• 2017

최근 교통과 물류의 발달과 함께 위험물 수송의 증가와 교통량의 증가로 인하여, 주요한 사회기반시설물 중 하나인 교량에 대하여 예상하지 못한 화재사고 화재 발생이 증가하는 추세이다. 또한, 교량 하부 공간의 효율적인 사용에 대한 요구가 늘어남에 따라, 하부에 유조차 및 화물차 등의 위험물질이 적치되는 비율이 증가하고 있으며, 앞서 기술한 이유들로 인하여 최근 교량의 화재 발생 위험성이 급격히 증가하고 있다. 하지만, 이러한 피해를 줄이기 위해, 교량에 대한 화재 위험도 평가가 수행된 사례가 있으나, 사용자의 관점에서 안전성을 고려한 실용적으로 위험도를 평가할 수 있는 모델이 부족하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 국도교량에 적용 가능한 정량적인 위험도 평가모델을 제시하였다. 교량의 화재위험도에 큰 영향을 미치는 형하고, 화재강도, 교량의 재료, 소방차량 도착시간 등을 주요인자들로 선정하였으며, 선정된 인자들을 FDS에 반영하여 화재강도와 지속시간에 따른 각 교량의 최고 온도를 산출하였다. FDS 해석결과와 위험도 등급기준, 소방차량 도착시간을 반영한 화재 위험도 평가 모델과 위험도에 따른 대응방안을 수립하였다. GIS의 네트워크 분석기능을 통해 소방서에서 교량까지의 도착시간을 예시적으로 산출하였으며, 이를 통해 예시적인 교량의 위험도 등급을 평가하고, 그에 따른 대응방안을 제안하였다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.14-20
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• 2018

In this study, we analyze the current status of major disasters in distribution works and propose safety measures through the distribution live-line work method and electric shock risk assessment. The result of analyzing the ratio of electric shocks to the occurrence of industrial accidents in the recent 13 years shows that the death rate is higher than other industries, especially the construction industry occupying most of the disaster, and it is higher than the collapse disaster. We analyze statistic data of 101 victims selected as core words of live work, distribution line, pole and 22.9 kV in the investigation report of major accident of electric shock fatal from 2001 to 2014. The safety measure was established through the risk assessment of the distribution method using the standard model of the risk assessment based on the results of electric shock analysis on the distribution line. In order to prevent the electric shock accident which is recently being discussed, the risk assessment procedure were carried out in the above-mentioned 22.9kV special high voltage live-line operation method. We derived the risk reduction plan for the distribution line from the results of the major accidents statistic and demonstration of the line works.

• 대한건축학회논문집:구조계
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.135-145
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• 2020

Recently, the disaster rate of the construction industry has increased with high-rise, and complexity of the building, unlike the decrease in the disaster rate in other industries. Although risk assessment is performed to reduce the occurrence of disasters, it is difficult to estimate the risks accurately due to activity in which no disaster has occurred, and inconsistencies in the level of details of work. In this study, in order to evaluate the risk of the major activity for the apartment construction work, the activity was identified by referring to the risk assessment model of construction industry type by the KOSHA. The construction work types and activities were consistently organized in level of work into nine work types and 82 activities were through experts consultation. Analyzing the disaster types that occurred during work through KOSHA disaster cases, calculating the probability of disaster occurrence according to the type of disaster, and combining the probability of disaster with the severity of disaster to estimate the risk assessment method was presented. Using the daily report of the construction site of the apartment, the results of a case study confirmed the validity of the risk calculation method presented in this study.