• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment model

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Addition Effect of the Deposition and Buoyancy Terms in Modeling Turbulence Diffusion of Hazardous Air Pollutants (유해 대기오염물질의 난류확산 수치모의에서 침적한과 부력항 추가에 따른 효과)

  • Won, Gyeong-Mee;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Ji, Hyo-Eun;Kim, Cheol-Hee;Song, Chang-Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.73-84
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    • 2006
  • Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) are characterized by being relatively heavier and denser than that of ambient air due to the various reasons such as higher molecular weight, low temperature and other complicated chemical transformations (Witlox, 1994). In an effort to investigate transport and diffusion from instantaneous emission of heavy gas, Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) coupled with the RAMS output was employed. Both deposition process and buoyancy term were added on the atmospheric diffusion equations of LPDM, and the locations and concentrations of dense gas particle released from instantaneous single point source (emitting initially for 10 minutes only) were analyzed. The result overall shows that adding deposition process and buoyancy terms on the diffusion equation of LPDM has very small but detectable effect on the vertical and horizontal distribution of Lagrangian particles that especially transported for a fairly long traveling time. Also the slumping of dense gas can be found to be ignored horizontally compared to the advection by the horizontal wind suggesting that it was essential to couple the Lagrangian particle dispersion model coupled with the RAMS model in order to explain the dispersion of HAPs more accurately. However, during the initial time of instantaneous emission, buoyancy term play an important role on the vertical locations of dense particles for near surface atmosphere and around source area, indicating the importance of densities of HAPs in the beginning stage or short duration for the risk assessment of HAPs or management of heavy vapors during the explosive accidents.

CB6F1-Tg rasH2 Mouse Carrying Human Prototype c-Ha-ras Gene As an Alternative Model For Carcinogenicity Testing For Pharmaceuticals

  • Usui, T.;Urano, K.;Suzuki, S.;Hioki, K.;Maruyama, Ch.;Tomisawa, M.;Ohnishi, Y.;Suemizu, H.;Yamamoto, S.
    • Toxicological Research
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    • 제17권
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    • pp.293-297
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    • 2001
  • The international pharmaceutical and regulatory communities had been recognizing the limited utility of conventional rodent carcinogenicity study particularly on the second species, mouse, after intense investigation of carcinogenicity data base worldwide, and a new scheme for carcinogenicity testing for pharmaceuticals was proposed at the Expert Working Group on Safety in the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) in 1996. CB6F 1-Tg rasH2 mouse carrying human prototype c-Ha-ras gene with its own promoter/enhancer is one oj the new carcinogenicity assay model for human cancer risk assessment. Studies have been conducted since 1992 to validate the transgenic (Tg) mice for rapid carcinogenicity test-ing, short term (26 weeks) studies with genotoxic (by Salmonella), non-genotoxic carcinogens, genotoxic non-carcinogens, non-genotoxic non-carcinogens revealed relatively high concordance oj the response of the Tg mouse with classical bioassay across classes of carcinogenic agents. Mechanistic basis for carcinogensis in the model are being elucidated in terms of the role of overexpression and/or point mutation of the transgene. This report review the initial studies of validation of the model and preliminary results of on-going ILSI HESI ACT project will be presented.

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Establishment and Standardization of Evaluation Procedure for Urban Flooding Analysis Model Using Available Inundation Data (가용 침수 자료를 활용한 도심지 침수 해석 모형의 평가 절차 수립 및 표준화)

  • Shin, Eun Taek;Jang, Dong Min;Park, Sung Won;Eum, Tae Soo;Song, Chang Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • 제35권2호
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    • pp.100-110
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the frequency of typhoon and torrential rain due to climate change is increasing. In addition, the upsurge in the complexity of urban sewer network and impervious surfaces area aggravates the inland flooding damage. In response to these worsening situations, the central and local governments are conducting R&D tasks related to predict and mitigate the flood risk. Researches on the analysis of inundation in urban areas have been implemented through various ways, and the common features were to evaluate the accuracy and justification of the model by comparing the model results with the actual inundation data. However, the evaluation procesure using available urban flooding data are not consistent, and if there are no quantitative urban inundation data, verification has to be performed by using press releases, public complaints, or photos of inundation occurring through 'CCTV'. Because theses materials are not quantitative, there is a problem of low reliability. Therefore, this study intends to develop a comparative analysis procedure on the quantitative degree and applicability of the verifiable inundation data, and a systematic framework for the performance assessment of urban flood analysis model was proposed. This would contribute to the standardization of the evaluation and verification procedure for urban flooding modelling.

Uncertainty Analysis of a Pharmacokinetic Modeling for Inhalation Exposure of Benzene from the Use of Groundwater at Dwelling (거주지의 지하수사용에서 유래한 벤젠의 흡입노출에 대한 동적약리학 모델의 불확실성 분석)

  • 김상준;이현호;박지연;이유진;유동한;양지원
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 2004
  • This study presents the result of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a pharmacokinetic model which describes the distribution and removal of benzene at each organ when an indivisual inhales indoor contaminated air with benzene originated from groundwater. The pharmacokinetic model simulates the distribution of benzene deposited in organs of human body through inhalation of contaminated indoor air as well as degradation-metabolism in liver. This study focused on the uncertainty problem induced from the use of the single values for blood flow, partition coefficient, degradation constant, volume, etc. of each organ which was due to a lack of knowledge about these parameters or their measurements. To solve this problem, uncertainty analysis on the pharmacokinetic model was conducted simultaneously which would help understanding the risk assessment associated with VOCs.

Studies on the Methodology of a Hybrid Model for Emission Dispersion Analysis (대기오염 확산분석을 위한 복합모형 방법론 연구)

  • Yang, Choong Heon;Koo, Youn Seo;Kim, In Su;Sung, Jung-Gon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • 제31권2호
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    • pp.69-79
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    • 2013
  • This study suggests a specific methodology to analyze how emission impacts on regional emission concentrations in accordance with the change of weather conditions, and the need of its application. The suggested methodology was applied to a transportation network of Pochun area in Gyenggido as an example. The methodology contains two types of analytical models; 1) dispersion analysis based on emission from traffic, and 2) dispersion analysis based on the combination between emission from traffic and existing emission in the air. By doing so, it is expected that the comprehensive influence of emission on traffic network and its surrounding areas can be identified. In addition, it might be useful for us to apply environmental risk assessment based on the effect of emission on the people.

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Public Health: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh

  • SIDDIQUE, Fahimul Kader;HASAN, K.B.M. Rajibul;CHOWDHURY, Shanjida;RAHMAN, Mahfujur;RAISA, Tahsin Sharmila;ZAYED, Nurul Mohammad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2021
  • Health is an outset of psychological, social, financial, and physical state. Several macroeconomic factors are entangled with health and mortality. Infant mortality and life expectancy are two keyguard on demographic research context on last few decades. On the other hand, foreign inflows play an unprecedent role for raising economic circulation and providing more opportunities to build a better society. The study aims to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, and Bangladesh's health. This study employs time-series data from 1980 to 2018. Results show, with Auto-regressive Distribute Lag (ARDL) model, that there is significant cointegration among variables. Foreign investment and economic output relate significantly and positively to health. On the contrary, education is quasi-linked with a different sign-on different model. For model validation, pitfalls of time-series multicollinearity, heteroscedasiticy, and autocorrelation are not present. Also, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests are validating the model as stable and fit for future prediction. Medical assessment and education need more attention from the government as well as the private sector. FDI can play a catalyst role for improving the health sector, raising opportunity in educating and creating a better lifestyle. In order to optimize foreign investment, the government should implement necessary reforms and policies.

Applied Time-Temperature Curve for Safety Evaluation in the Road Tunnel by Fire (도로터널내 화재에 따른 터널구조체의 안정성 평가를 위한 시간-온도곡선의 적용)

  • Won, Jong-Pil;Choi, Min-Jung;Jang, Chang-Il;Lee, Sang-Woo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제29권5A호
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    • pp.551-555
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    • 2009
  • This study is performed to apply a standard to evaluate fire protection assessment for tunnel structures when a fire breaks out in the road tunnel. Recently, a number of road tunnels have been rapidly increased and fire risk also multiplyed according to extend tunnel length, due to natural features and environmentally-friendly road construction in Korea. But we have not yet been prescribed appropriate time-temperature curve for tunnel fire. Therefore, we presented fire design model and investigated time-temperature curve proposed by a foreign country considering traffic, a kinds of vehicles which are a basis of heat rate. At the end, Hydrocarbon modified curve applied as design fire model by using numerical analysis and presented design fire model and examined the effects of tunnel structures.

Vest-type System on Machine Learning-based Algorithm to Detect and Predict Falls

  • Ho-Chul Kim;Ho-Seong Hwang;Kwon-Hee Lee;Min-Hee Kim
    • PNF and Movement
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Falls among persons older than 65 years are a significant concern due to their frequency and severity. This study aimed to develop a vest-type embedded artificial intelligence (AI) system capable of detecting and predicting falls in various scenarios. Methods: In this study, we established and developed a vest-type embedded AI system to judge and predict falls in various directions and situations. To train the AI, we collected data using acceleration and gyroscope values from a six-axis sensor attached to the seventh cervical and the second sacral vertebrae of the user, considering accurate motion analysis of the human body. The model was constructed using a neural network-based AI prediction algorithm to anticipate the direction of falls using the collected pedestrian data. Results: We focused on developing a lightweight and efficient fall prediction model for integration into an embedded AI algorithm system, ensuring real-time network optimization. Our results showed that the accuracy of fall occurrence and direction prediction using the trained fall prediction model was 89.0% and 78.8%, respectively. Furthermore, the fall occurrence and direction prediction accuracy of the model quantized for embedded porting was 87.0 % and 75.5 %, respectively. Conclusion: The developed fall detection and prediction system, designed as a vest-type with an embedded AI algorithm, offers the potential to provide real-time feedback to pedestrians in clinical settings and proactively prepare for accidents.

Spatial Inequalities in the Incidence of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Factors in the Neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran: Bayesian Spatial Models

  • Mansori, Kamyar;Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud;Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza;Motlagh, Ali Ganbary;Salehi, Masoud;Delavari, Alireza;Asadi-Lari, Mohsen
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제51권1호
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods: This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The $Besag-York-Molli{\acute{e}}$ (BYM) model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results: The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05). The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53), living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96), not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94) and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68) were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range) and mean (standard deviation) values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01) and 1.05 (1.31), respectively. Conclusions: Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

Project Risk Assessment Through Construction Sequence Analyses for Industrial Plant Construction Projects (산업플랜트 건설 프로젝트의 주요 공정 시퀀스 분석을 통한 리스크 평가)

  • Lee, Kyusung;Choi, Jaehyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.140-151
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    • 2013
  • In 2011 and 2012, Korean construction firms awarded around $ 64.5. Billion each year from the overseas market in 2011. This contract value accounted for overwhelming portion of total overseas construction contract values, and this growth is expected to continue for the next decade. However, contract scopes awarded to the Korean construction firms mainly involve detailed design and construction phases due to their competitiveness for the construction techniques. In other words, front-end-engineering-design and construction project management are not considered part of core business due to the lack of project management skills and experience. The researchers focused on development of construction sequence model required to improve construction planning and scheduling skills for the Korean construction firms. The model identifies critical work items and the sequence throughout project execution process. In addition, the researchers developed a risk evaluation method by applying fuzzy theory to the critical construction activities for the industrial plant construction projects. Developed methodology will help project practitioners to develop project schedule in a timely and effe ctive manner and evaluate project risks associated with scheduling process for the industrial plant construction projects.