• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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A Development Study on the Urban Fire Risk Assessment UsingPhysically-based Prediction Model for Burning Phenomena in Korea (도시화재의 물리적 연소성상 예측 모델구축 및 이를 활용한 도시화재리스크 평가기법의 개발(I) -한.일 연구체계 구축 및 한국의 화재경계지구 실태조사-)

  • Koo, In-Kyuk;Shin, Yi-Chul;Kwon, Young-Jin;Nam, Dong-Gun;Yoshihiko, Hayashi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.311-317
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    • 2009
  • 우리나라에서 발생하는 화재의 대부분은 건축물 화재이며, 이중 노후화된 시가지 등 화재에 취약한 지역에서 화재발생시 도시화재로 확대될 우려가 높다. 이러한 도시화재 확대를 방지하기 위한 도시화재의 물리적 연소성상예측모델과 도시화재 리스크평가기법의 개발이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 도시화재위험성평가 구축을 위한 한 일 공동연구체계와 주요 대상인 화제경계지구에 대하여 소개하였다.

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Simulation-Based Assessment of Seismic Slope Stability (시뮬레이션 기법을 이용한 지진 시 사면안정 해석)

  • 김진만
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2003.03a
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    • pp.157-164
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    • 2003
  • A simulation-based approach that can be used to systematically model the uncertainties of seismic loading and geotechnical property is presented in the context of reliability analysis of slope stability. The uncertainty of seismic loading is studied by generating a large series of hazard-compatible artificial motions, and by using them in subsequent response analyses. The stochastic nature of spatially varying material properties and also the uncertainty arising from insufficient information are treated in the framework of random fields. The simulation-based analyses indicate that in a seismically less active region, a moderate variability in soil properties has a relatively large effect as much as characterization of earthquake hazard on the computed risk of slope failure and excessive slope deformations.

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A Development of Tsunami Risk Assessment Model Using a Poisson-Pareto Distribution for Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude (지진발생빈도-크기 분석을 위한 Poisson-Pareto 분포 모형과 연계한 지진해일 위험도 평가 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Kwan-Hyuck;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.330-330
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    • 2017
  • 최근 우리나라 주변에 잦은 지진으로 인한 재해위험도 증가 우려가 커지고 있다. 국내 외에서 지진해일 위험도 평가는 시나리오를 기준으로 수치해석을 수행하고 이들 결과를 활용하는 절차로 수행된다. 그러나 위험도 평가는 하중조건 즉, 지진해일을 발생시키는 지진의 발생빈도 및 크기를 종합적으로 고려한 확률 계산이 우선적으로 요구되나, 기존 분석 절차에서는 고려가 되지 않거나 상대적으로 간략화 되어 진행되고 있다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구에서는 과거 우리나라 주변에 지진 및 지진해일 자료, 수치해석 모형 결과를 활용하여, 지진의 규모와 발생빈도를 종합적으로 고려할 수 있는 지진해일 위험도 평가 방법을 수립하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 첫째, 지진 위험도 평가를 위해서 Poisson-Pareto 분포를 이용하였다. 둘째, 지진발생 위치 및 크기를 고려한 지진해일 위험도 평가 모형을 개발하였다. 셋째, 지진발생 위험도 및 지진해일 위험도를 통합한 해석 모형을 개발하고자 하며, 본 연구애서 제시하는 모든 해석 절차는 매개변수의 불확실성을 고려할 수 있도록 Bayesian 해석기법을 도입하여 진행하였다.

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Effects of a Self-Care Reinforcement Program for Socially Vulnerable Elderly Women with Metabolic Syndrome in Korea

  • Park, Mikyung;Sung, Kiwol
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study evaluates the efficacy of a Self-Care Reinforcement Program (SCRP) based on the Selection Optimization Compensation (SOC) model, in socially vulnerable elderly women with metabolic syndrome. Methods: This study adopts a pretest-posttest nonequivalent control group design. The participants were 64 socially vulnerable elderly Korean women with metabolic syndrome (experimental group: 31, control group: 33). Participants' body composition analysis, nutrient intake, risk factors of metabolic syndrome, depressive symptoms, and social network were measured. Data were analyzed with an independent t-test; statistical significance levels were set at p<.05. The SCRP, including metabolic syndrome education, nutritional education, exercise, and social network, was performed three times a week for 8 weeks. Results: There were statistically significant differences between the experimental and control groups in terms of systolic blood pressure, diastolic pressure, fasting blood sugar, triglycerides, sodium intake, depressive symptoms, and social networks. Conclusion: The SCRP is effective and can be recommended as a community health nursing intervention for socially vulnerable elderly women with metabolic syndrome.

Impact Analysis of Construction Delay: The Case of Defects In the Top-down Construction Method

  • Suk, Janghwan;Kwon, Woobin;Soe, Jang-woo;Cho, Hunhee
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.213-221
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    • 2022
  • Defects are the risk factors in the construction process of buildings. They cause damage, delaying the construction duration. They especially cause adverse effects on the top-down construction method. This study analyzed the degree of construction delay induced by each work type, focusing on defects in the top-down method. Then, we derived construction delay induction coefficient from different work types in order by using the severity of construction delay per defect and the occurrence probability of defect; this assessment model measures the impact of defects on construction delay for each work type. Furthermore, by comparing each work type based on the defect frequency and the construction delay induction coefficient, we found work types that need to be administered attentively. We identified that plastering work was easy to overlook, requiring caution in defect management. This study provides an efficient defect management system suitable for the buildings that are built using the top-down construction method.

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Hydrogen Industry Cycle Infrastructure Safety Analysis (수소산업 전주기 인프라시설 안전성 분석)

  • WOOIL PARK;SEULKI CHOI;INWOO LEE;SEUNGKYU KANG
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.795-802
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    • 2022
  • Korea is showing its appearance as a leading country in the hydrogen economy by establishing policies for revitalizing the hydrogen economy and enacting the 「Hydrogen Economy Promotion and Hydrogen Safety Management Act」 for the first time in the world. In addition, domestic hydrogen facilities are using hydrogen energy safely through world-class safety management compared to overseas advanced countries. However, in order to enhance the safety of the rapidly diversifying hydrogen industry and rapid technology development, such as the introduction of liquefied hydrogen, some institutional improvements are needed. In this regard, this paper intends to analyze the results of safety inspections on 13 representative facilities and prepare safety improvement plans to establish preemptive safety measures.

Suicide Prevention Policy Guideline Model Considering Privacy Law in Korea

  • Do-Hyun Kwon
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2023
  • Objectives This study aimed to review the Korean Constitution articles 14 and 20 of the "Law on suicide prevention" and investigate public perceptions of specific improvements to suicide prevention policies using results from the Korean 2018 National Survey on Suicide. Methods The questionnaire was designed to analyzing the act restricts sharing of patient information between hospitals, making it difficult to track suicide attempts. The questionnaire was also designed to suggest further medical and normative criteria for objective judgment of continuous follow-up utilizing suicide risk evaluations and proportional principle review that consider patients' and medical staff's basic rights. Results This study identified the result of the 1500 respondents, 79.1% believed that Korea should allow suicide prevention management to be implemented without requiring individual consent to protect suicide attempters. Conclusions According the results, I propose the following criteria for policy improvement: use of anonymized information and non-profit research for technical and ethical considerations, access to medical information only for therapeutic purposes, and use of surgical severity assessment criteria appropriate for Korea.

A Basic Study on the Safety Management and Quantification of Vulnerability Factors in Small-size Old Buildings (소규모 노후 건축물 안전관리 및 취약성 요소 정량화 기본연구)

  • Goh, Wolsan;Oh, Gyuho;Ahn, Sungjin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2023.11a
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    • pp.249-250
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    • 2023
  • The vulnerability factor analysis and risk quantification model for aging buildings presented in this study can be utilized by governmental agencies such as the Facility Safety Foundation, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and various local governments. Policymakers can use this to supplement inadequacies in existing checklists, and it is expected that they can proactively prevent risks by evaluating dangers based on specific aging characteristics of buildings.

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Modeling for the fate of Organic Chemicals in a Multi-media Environment Using MUSEM (다매체 환경 모델 MUSEM을 이용한 유해화학물질의 환경거동예측 모델링)

  • Roh, Kyong-Joon;Kim, Dong-Myung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.201-210
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    • 2007
  • Pollution by chemical substances such as POPs, EDCs and PBTs in the ecosystem has become more complex and varied, increasing the possibility of irreversible damage to human health or the ecosystem. It is necessary to have a exposure assessment in a multi-media environment for various chemical substances is required for efficient management. This study applied MUSEM(Multi-media Simplebox-systems Environmental Model), a multimedia environmental model that can simultaneously evaluate the possibility of exposure of hundreds of chemical substances in order to efficiently manage chemical substances that can have negative impact on human health or ecological environment through environmental contamination. MUSEM executed the modeling for Japan by setting all 47 prefectures of japan as the regional area for 62 chemical substances and the rest of the territory of japan, excluding regional area, as the continental area and made the estimation of concentration among environment media in each administrative area and made the sensitivity analysis on Tokyo area. The results of simulation for chemical distribution showed that most of the target chemicals located in water region. The result of sensitivity analysis for octanol-water partition rate showed that the concentration change of soil in urban/industrial area and sediment in freshwater was high. In the case of sensitivity analysis for degradation rate showed that the concentration change of freshwater, soil in urban/industrial area, and sediment in freshwater was high.

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Research on rapid source term estimation in nuclear accident emergency decision for pressurized water reactor based on Bayesian network

  • Wu, Guohua;Tong, Jiejuan;Zhang, Liguo;Yuan, Diping;Xiao, Yiqing
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.2534-2546
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    • 2021
  • Nuclear emergency preparedness and response is an essential part to ensure the safety of nuclear power plant (NPP). Key support technologies of nuclear emergency decision-making usually consist of accident diagnosis, source term estimation, accident consequence assessment, and protective action recommendation. Source term estimation is almost the most difficult part among them. For example, bad communication, incomplete information, as well as complicated accident scenario make it hard to determine the reactor status and estimate the source term timely in the Fukushima accident. Subsequently, it leads to the hard decision on how to take appropriate emergency response actions. Hence, this paper aims to develop a method for rapid source term estimation to support nuclear emergency decision making in pressurized water reactor NPP. The method aims to make our knowledge on NPP provide better support nuclear emergency. Firstly, this paper studies how to build a Bayesian network model for the NPP based on professional knowledge and engineering knowledge. This paper presents a method transforming the PRA model (event trees and fault trees) into a corresponding Bayesian network model. To solve the problem that some physical phenomena which are modeled as pivotal events in level 2 PRA, cannot find sensors associated directly with their occurrence, a weighted assignment approach based on expert assessment is proposed in this paper. Secondly, the monitoring data of NPP are provided to the Bayesian network model, the real-time status of pivotal events and initiating events can be determined based on the junction tree algorithm. Thirdly, since PRA knowledge can link the accident sequences to the possible release categories, the proposed method is capable to find the most likely release category for the candidate accidents scenarios, namely the source term. The probabilities of possible accident sequences and the source term are calculated. Finally, the prototype software is checked against several sets of accident scenario data which are generated by the simulator of AP1000-NPP, including large loss of coolant accident, loss of main feedwater, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture. The results show that the proposed method for rapid source term estimation under nuclear emergency decision making is promising.