• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.248-254
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• 2018

To assess the risk of V. parahaemolyticus infection caused by consumption of raw oysters in Korea, contamination levels during the retail-to-table route of oysters was modeled to predict V. parahaemolyticus growth based on temperature and time. The consumed amount data of the KNHANES and the standard recipe of RDA were applied. A consumption scenario for exposure assessment was developed and combined with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model. The estimated probability of illness from consumption of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in raw oysters during three separate months (April, October, and November) was $5.71{\times}10^{-5}$ (within the 5th and 95th percentile ranges of $2.71{\times}10^{-8}$ to $1.03{\times}10^{-4}$). The results of the quantitative microbial-risk assessment indicated that the major factors affecting the probability of illness were the initial contamination level at the retailer, the consumed amount, the prevalence of pathogenic strains [tdh or trh genes], and exposure temperature and time.

• The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.167-177
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• 2004

The number of foodborne salmonellosis was estimated by using microbial risk assessment(MRA) methodology and the possibility of application was studied through comparison with previous results. The contamination levels of Salmonella sp. were estimated by using published domestic studies(1997∼2000) and monitoring data (1999∼2001) from food-safety related institutes. Data on food consumption came from the 2001 National Health and Nutrition Survey, and dose-response models from studies in other countries. Simulation results showed that there were 753,368 cases of salmonellosis in Korea in 1 year, which is about 115 times that reported in previous years and lower than the WHO's estimation increase. From these results, microbial risk assessment is likely to be available for estimation of the number of foodborne illnesses and determination of the order of priority in food-safety management. Butthe verification methods are not established and most of the data on contamination levels of foodborne bacteria, food consumption, and dose-response relationships have not been established. In addition, the actual conditions of circulation, storage and cooking must be studied further.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.873-882
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• 2022

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze accidents and potential risks occurring at container terminals and to conduct on safety management plans tailored to container terminals. Method: A model for establishing a safety management plan is presented through a case study of container terminal risk assessment and literature analysis. Result: According to the 'Statistics of Accidents in the Harbor Handling Industry', 2,800 people were killed or injured during port work for 10 years from 2011 to 2021. This corresponds to an occupational accident rate of one person every 1.5 days. As a method of improving these accidents and disasters, a highly effective safety management plan should be established to prevent the recurrence of accidents in accordance with the Special Act on Port Safety. It is proposed to establish a safety management plan that reflects the risk assessment of container terminals, safety organization, safety budget, safety rules, and safety education.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.65-77
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• 2006

This study proposes a Bayesian dynamic model in a hierarchical way to assess the time-varying effect of risk factors on the likelihood of corporate bankruptcy. For the longitudinal data, we aim to describe dynamically evolving effects of covariates more articulately compared to the Generalized Estimating Equation approach. In the analysis, it is shown that the proposed model outperforms in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Besides, the usefulness of this study can be found from the flexibility in describing the dependence structure among time specific parameters and suitability for assessing the time effect of risk factors.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.502-508
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• 2005

In order to assess the environmental risk of pesticides, information is usually required on the likelihood of exposure of organisms to the constituents of pesticides, expressed as a predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) and the likely effects of the constituents of pesticides on aquatic and terrestrial organisms, expressed as a predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs). In this paper, the pesticide fate model, RICEWQ alone and coupled with the pesticide movement model, RIVWQ was used to simulate the potential for predicting the environmental concentrations of pesticides in paddy fields and adjacent surface water systems. The RICEWQ model was successfully calibrated against field data in poinding depth for paddy field. For the assessment of importance for water and pesticide management conditions and field scales, the integrated RICEWQ-RIVWQ model was simulated by the scenario analysis. The results of this study can be used as a basic information for assessing the environmental risk of pesticides.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.46 no.6
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• pp.434-444
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• 2013

In order to evaluate drought risk at upland according to climate change scenario (RCP8.5), we have carried out the simulation using agricultural water balance estimation model, called AFKAE0.5, at 66 weather station sites in 2020, 2046, 2050, 2084, and 2090. Total Drought Risk Index between the first month (f) and last month (l) (TDRI(f/l)) and maximum continuous drought risk index (MCDRI(f/l)) were defined as the index for analyzing pattern and strength of drought simulated by the model. Based on distribution maps of MCDRI (1/12), drought strength was predicted to be most severe in 2084 for all regions. Some regions showed severe risk of drought meaning over 20 days of MCDRI (1/12) in the other years, while MCDRI (1/12) in other regions did not reach 5 days. Even though maximum value of TDRI (1/12) in 2090 was greater than in 2050, more severe drought risk in 2050 than in 2090 was predicted based on MCDRI (4/6). It implies that drought risk should be assessed for each crop with its own growing season.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.108-119
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• 2024

Objectives: Abrupt changes in air pollution levels associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak present a unique opportunity to evaluate the effects of air pollution on influenza risk, at a time when emission sources were less active and personal hygiene practices were more rigorous. Methods: This time-series study examined the relationship between influenza cases (n=22 874) and air pollutant concentrations from 2018 to 2021, comparing the timeframes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in and around Thailand's Khon Kaen province. Poisson generalized additive modeling was employed to estimate the relative risk of hospitalization for influenza associated with air pollutant levels. Results: Before the COVID-19 outbreak, both the average daily number of influenza hospitalizations and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 ㎛ or less (PM_2.5) concentration exceeded those later observed during the pandemic (p<0.001). In single-pollutant models, a 10 ㎍/m³ increase in PM_2.5 before COVID-19 was significantly associated with increased influenza risk upon exposure to cumulative-day lags, specifically lags 0-5 and 0-6 (p<0.01). After adjustment for co-pollutants, PM_2.5 demonstrated the strongest effects at lags 0 and 4, with elevated risk found across all cumulative-day lags (0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, and 0-6) and significantly greater risk in the winter and summer at lag 0-5 (p<0.01). However, the PM_2.5 level was not significantly associated with influenza risk during the COVID-19 outbreak. Conclusions: Lockdown measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic could mitigate the risk of PM_2.5-induced influenza. Effective regulatory actions in the context of COVID-19 may decrease PM_2.5 emissions and improve hygiene practices, thereby reducing influenza hospitalizations.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.32 no.5 s.92
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• pp.398-403
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• 2006

Indoor air quality can be affected by indoor sources, ventilation, decay and outdoor levels. Understanding the effectiveness of indoor air quality control depends on knowledge of the characteristics of air pollutants in indoor air, especially their quantities and persistence, and the relevance of indoor sources to these factors. Toluene within new and established houses has been determined and factors significant to its presence have been identified. A total of 30 selected houses in Seoul, Asan and Daegu areas that were constructed within 4 years and over 4 years of construction were measured the concentration of toluene from July to September in 2004. Toluene emission decay of double-exponential model exhibited good fit of $Y=276.37e^{-1.21x}(R^{2}=0.34,\;P=0.06)$ for 2 years and then $Y=51.54e^{-0.11x}(R^{2}=0.40,\;P=0.0)$ from 23 years in new houses. In case of living in new houses, noncarcinogenic health effects of exposure to toluene was 1.38 of hazard quotient (HQ) comparing to toluene reference dose of 0.13 mg/kg-day.

• Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.74-82
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• 2020

Predictions of suitable habitat areas can provide important information pertaining to the risk assessment and management of alien plants at early stage of their establishment. Here, we predict the invasion potential of Muhlenbergia capillaris (pink muhly) in South Korea using five bioclimatic variables. We adopt four models (generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest (RF), and artificial neural network) for projection based on 630 presence and 600 pseudo-absence data points. The RF model yielded the highest performance. The presence probability of M. capillaris was highest within an annual temperature range of 12 to 24℃ and with precipitation from 800 to 1,300 mm. The occurrence of M. capillaris was positively associated with the precipitation of the driest quarter. The projection map showed that suitable areas for M. capillaris are mainly concentrated in the southern coastal regions of South Korea, where temperatures and precipitation are higher than in other regions, especially in the winter season. We can conclude that M. capillaris is not considered to be invasive based on a habitat suitability map. However, there is a possibility that rising temperatures and increasing precipitation levels in winter can accelerate the expansion of this plant on the Korean Peninsula.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.96-103
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• 2024

The demand for mass calculation of offsite consequence analysis to conduct exhaustive single-unit or multi-unit Level 3 PSA is increasing. In order to perform efficient offsite consequence analyses, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute is conducting model optimization studies to minimize the analysis time while maintaining the accuracy of the results. A previous study developed a model optimization method using efficient plume segmentation and verified its effectiveness. In this study, we investigated the possibility of optimizing the model through particle size distribution setting by checking the reduction in analysis time and deviation of the results. Our findings indicate that particle size distribution setting affects the results, but its effect on analysis time is insignificant. Therefore, it is advantageous to set the particle size distribution as fine as possible. Furthermore, we evaluated the effect of multithreading and confirmed its efficiency. Future optimization studies should be conducted on various input factors of offsite consequence analysis, such as spatial grid settings.