• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment method

검색결과 1,287건 처리시간 0.035초

Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Using the Gail Model: a Turkish Study

  • Erbil, Nulufer;Dundar, Nursel;Inan, Cigdem;Bolukbas, Nurgul
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.303-306
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to determine risk of developing of breast cancer among Turkish women. Materials and Methods: Using a descriptive and cross-sectional approach, data were collected from 231 women. Breast cancer risk was calculated using the National Cancer Institute's on-line verson of called as the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool or the Gail Risk Assesment Tool. Results: The average age of women was $45.0{\pm}8.06$ years. It was revealed that 6.1% of participants reported having first degree relatives who had had breast cancer, with only four women having more than one first-degree relative affected (1.7%). The mean five-year breast cancer risk for all women was $0.88{\pm}0.91%$, and 7.4% of women had a five-year breast cancer risk >1.66% in this study. Mean lifetime breast cancer risk up to age 90 years was $9.3{\pm}5.2%$. Conclusions: The breast cancer risk assessment tool can help in the clinical management of patient seeking advice concerning screening and prevention. Healthcare providers in Turkey can use this approach to estimate an individual's probability of developing breast cancer.

GIS를 이용한 정적 자연환경인자의 분석에 의한 산사태 취약성 평가 (An Estimation of Landslide's Vulnerability by Analysis of Static Natural Environmental Factors with GIS)

  • Yang, In-Tae
    • 한국지형공간정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지형공간정보학회 2005년도 아시아 태평양 국제 GSIS 학술발표회
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2005
  • The landslide risk assessment process consists of hazard risk assessment and vulnerability analysis. landslide hazard risk is location dependent. Therefore, maps and spatial technologies such as GIS are very important components of the risk assessment process. This paper discusses the advantages of using GIS technology in the risk assessment process and illustrates the benefits through case studies of live projects undertaken. The goal of this study is to generate a map of landslide vulnerability map by analysis of static natural factors with GIS. A simple and efficient algorithm is proposed to generate a landslide potentialities map from DEM and existing maps. The categories of controlling factors for landslides, aspect of slope, soil, vegetation are defined. The weight values for landslide potentialities are calculated from AHP method. Slope and slope-direction are extracted from DEM, and soil informations are extracted from digital soil map. Also, vegetation informations are extracted from digital vegetation map. Finally, as overlaying, landslide potentialities map is made out, and it is verified with landslide place.

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Safety Assessment of LNG Transferring System subjected to gas leakage using FMEA and FTA

  • Lee, Jang-Hyun;Hwang, Seyun;Kim, Sungchan
    • Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 2017
  • The paper considers the practical application of the FMEA(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) method to assess the operational reliability of the LNG(Liquefied Natural Gas) transfer system, which is a potential problem for the connection between the LNG FPSO and LNG carrier. Hazard Identification (HAZID) and Hazard operability (HAZOP) are applied to identify the risks and hazards during the operation of LNG transfer system. The approach is performed for the FMEA to assess the reliability based on the detection of defects typical to LNG transfer system. FTA and FMEA associated with a probabilistic risk database to the operation scenarios are applied to assess the risk. After providing an outline of the safety assessment procedure for the operational problems of system, safety assessment example is presented, providing details on the fault tree of operational accident, safety assessment, and risk measures.

Estimating Risk Interdependency Ratio for Construction Projects: Using Risk Checklist in Pre-construction Phase

  • Kim, Junyoung;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Park, Moonseo;Kwon, Nahyun
    • Architectural research
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2019
  • Risk assessment during pre-construction phase is important due to the uncertainty of the risks that may exist in projects. Risk checklist is a method to systematically classify and organize the risks that have been experienced in the past, and to identify the risk factors that may be present in the future projects. In addition, risk value assessment based on checklists plays a key role in risk management, and various risk assessment researches have been conducted to carry out this systematically. However, previous approaches have limitations in common, this is because risk values are evaluated individually in risk checklists, which ignore interdependencies among risk factors and neglect the emergence of co-occurrence of risks. Hence, when multiple risk factors cooccur, they cannot be far off from the conventional method of summing the total risk value to establish the risk response strategy. Most of risk factors are interdependent and may have multiple effects if occurred than expected. In particular, specific cause can be overlapped if multiple risks co-occur, and this may result in overestimation of the risk response for the future project. Thus, the objective of this research is to propose a model to help decision makers to quantify the risk value reflecting the interdependency during the identification phase using existing risk checklist that is currently being practiced in actual construction projects. The proposed model will provide the guideline to support the prediction and identification of the interdependency of risks in practice. In addition, the better understanding and prediction of the exceeding risk response by co-occurring risks during the risk identification phase for decision makers.

A Study on Incidence of Risk Factor for Assessing Maritime Traffic Risk

  • Kim, Inchul
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2017
  • In order to assess risk as a basic step for securing safety, it requires to select risk factors and determine the frequency and the severity of the consequence of each risk factor. This research adopted common risk factors among well-known maritime risk assessment models, and proposed objective criteria to gauge the risk level of each risk factor. The starting points of risk evolution were chosen for criteria according to related studies and seafarers' experience. The rate of risk appearance over the criteria is named as the incidence of risk factor. Therefore, the total risk level is expressed as the combination of incidence of each risk factor and severity. This quantitative method would be applied to measuring and comparing the risk level of target maritime zones, and it would also be useful to survey which risk factor be focused for reducing the total risk of a certain maritime zone.

셀소재를 고려한 리튬2차전지 제조공정 위험성 평가 방법 연구 (Research on Risk Assessment of Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturing Process Considering Cell Materials)

  • 김태훈
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제37권2호
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    • pp.76-87
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    • 2022
  • Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) have attracted much interest for their high energy density (>150 mAh/g), high capacity, low self-discharge rate, and high coulombic efficiency. However, with the successful commercialization of LIBs, fire and explosion incidents are likely to increase. The thermal runaway is known as the major factor in battery-related accidents that can lead to a series of critical conditions. Considering this, recent studies have shown an increased interest in countering the safety issues associated with LIBs. Although safety standards for LIB use have recently been formulated, little attention has been paid to the safety around the manufacturing process for battery products. The present study introduces a risk assessment method suitable for assessing the safety of the LIB-manufacturing process. In the assessment method, a compensation parameter (Z-factor) is employed to correctly evaluate the process's safety on the basis of the type of material (e.g., metal anode, liquid electrolyte, solid-state electrolytes) utilized in a cell. The proposed method has been applied to an 18650 cell-manufacturing process, and three sub-processes have been identified as possibly vulnerable parts (risk index: >4). This study offers some crucial insights into the establishment of safety standards for battery-manufacturing processes.

G-SAVE 공법 탑재 차량의 예비위험성평가 (Preliminary Hazard Analysis of Vehicle with G-SAVE Technology)

  • 정의필;박현철;박영수;안병철;한덕수;전현준
    • 한국표면공학회지
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    • 제56권4호
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    • pp.283-287
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    • 2023
  • The structures for road safety are guard rails that protect the cars and passengers. If an accident occurs on the roads after a long period of installation, it may escalate into a major disaster. In order to repair many guard rails, the existing repair method of replacing them with new ones requires enormous financial resources. To solve this problem, the G-SAVE method was developed to repair the guard rail without replacing them. This method removes the rust on the surface of the guard rail and then performs ambient-dip galvanizing coating on it without replacing the new ones. No studies or reports have yet been made on the risk assessment of harmful substances, vehicles for these entire processes. Therefore, this paper focuses on risk assessment using the PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) technique and conducts risk assessment for concept design stage of the coating vehicles.

수용체 지향의 건강영향평가를 위한 잠재노출 인구수의 산정·활용 가능성 연구 (A Study on the Application of Potential Exposed Population for a Receptor-oriented Health Impact Assessment)

  • 하종식
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.194-202
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    • 2018
  • 국내 법적인 건강영향평가로서 환경영향평가 내 위생 공중보건 항목의 평가는 특정 개발 사업에서 배출되는 유해대기오염물질 배출량 및 주변 주요 지점의 노출농도 산정, 이를 활용한 위해성 평가로 진행되고 있다. 하지만 개발 사업부지 주변의 노출 가능한 인구집단 규모를 고려하지 못하는 등 개발 사업부지 주변의 수용체 특성은 해당 위해성 평가에서 제대로 반영되지 못하고 있다. 본 논문의 목적은 개발 사업부지 주변의 노출 가능한 인구수를 산정 반영한 위해성 평가를 위해 잠재노출 인구수의 산정 및 이를 실제 위생 공중보건 항목 작성 시 활용하는 방안을 제안하는 것이다. 개발 사업부지 주변의 인구수 산정 관련한 국내 자료 현황을 파악하고 이를 고려한 잠재노출 인구수 산정 알고리즘을 제안하였다. 나아가 산업단지 개발 시 유해대기오염물질 배출을 가정한 사례 분석을 수행하였다. 잠재노출 인구수를 활용한 위해성 평가는 인구집단 위해도 개념이 적용되어야 함을 제시하였으며, 향후 연구로 평가결과에 대한 건강영향 여부의 판단기준 설정이 요구됨을 제안하였다. 또한 본 논문의 잠재노출 인구수 산정방법을 통해 개발사업의 입지제한 도구로의 활용가능성을 제안하였다. 이번 논문은 위생 공중보건 항목 작성 시 개발 사업부지 주변의 수용체 특성을 반영한 위해성 평가를 수행하는 방안을 제시했다는 것에 의미가 있다.

호소의 취약성 평가 (Lake Vulnerability Assessment)

  • 김응석;윤기용;이승현
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제15권11호
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    • pp.6877-6883
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    • 2014
  • 지속적인 사회발전으로 인하여 호소의 수질오염이 악화되고 있다. 호소의 특성 및 유역의 전반적인 측면에서 수질오염에 따른 호소의 취약성을 평가하기 위해, 본 논문에서는 기후변화 취약성 평가를 이용하여 호소 취약성-탄력성지수(LVRI)를 산정하였다. 금강 수계의 6개 호소에 대하여 취약성평가로 분류되는 3개의 주요 인자인 노출, 민감도, 적응능력을 대표하는 총 11개 세부평가항목들은 선정하였다. 또한, 엔트로피(Entropy) 방법에 의한 가중치를 산정하여 호소 취약성-탄력지수를 산정하였다. 제안된 호소의 취약성 평가방안의 활용성 검토를 위해 가중치 적용 유 무에 따른 취약성 우선순위를 비교 검토하였다. 본 논문에서 선정된 호소의 취약성 우선순위는 장지적인 수질분석 및 수질관리에 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.

Seismic risk assessment of intake tower in Korea using updated fragility by Bayesian inference

  • Alam, Jahangir;Kim, Dookie;Choi, Byounghan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제69권3호
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    • pp.317-326
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    • 2019
  • This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.