• 제목/요약/키워드: risk analysis and evaluation

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원자력발전소의 안전성 및 신뢰도 평가 (Safety and Reliability Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants)

  • 정원대;황미정
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제12권4호
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 1997
  • Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) is an engineering analysis of the possible contributors to the risk from a nuclear power plant. It consist of three phases named as Level 1, 2 and 3. Level 1 PSA mainly focused in this paper is the phase of system analysis which includes the development of accident scenarios and the frequency estimation of each scenario. It covers also the system reliability analysis, component data analysis, and human reliability analysis. PSA have become a standard tool in safety evaluation of nuclear power plants. The main benefit of PSA is to provide insights into plant design, performance and environmental impacts, including the identification of dominant risk contributors and the comparison of options for reducing risk.

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다수기 PSA를 활용한 원전 안전자원 공유 활용성 평가 (Feasibility Study on Cross-tie Systems in Nuclear Power Plants Using Multi-unit PSA)

  • 박종우;임호곤;윤재영
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제38권3호
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    • pp.102-109
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    • 2023
  • Following the accident at Fukushima, the true impact of multi-unit accidents came to light. Accordingly, research related to multi-unit accident effect analysis, risk evaluation, and accident prevention/prevention technology has been conducted. Specific examples are mobile/fixed equipment such as multi-barrier accident coping strategy (MACST) and diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX), which have been introduced and installed in multi-units for preventing and mitigating multi-unit accidents. These strategies are useful for enhancing the safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs); however, a more efficient strategy is required in terms of the costs of physical and human resources. To effectively and efficiently mitigate an increase in multi-unit accidents, it is necessary to not only to utilize mobile/fixed equipment but to also use crosstie options with resources that already exist at NPPs. Therefore, we analyzed the current international and domestic status of crosstie systems technology and propose a method to evaluate feasibility alongside risk based on a multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). To analyze the international and domestic status of crosstie systems technology, actual cases and related research were studied, and a list of potential crosstie safety resources was derived. Additionally, a case study was performed on crosstie cases of two systems within the assumed six units on-site under a multi-unit accident, and a multi-unit PSA-based risk evaluation method is proposed.

다중회귀분석을 이용한 대규모 비탈면의 위험도 평가 (Risk Assesment for Large-scale Slopes Using Multiple Regression Analysis)

  • 이종건;장범수;김용수;석재욱;문준식
    • 한국지반공학회논문집
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    • 제29권11호
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구에서는 일반국도 상에 존재하는 2종 비탈면 104개소에 대해 상태평가 항목과 상태평가 등급의 연관성을 분석하고, 평가항목을 고려한 다중회귀분석을 통해 안전등급을 예측할 수 있는 회귀모형을 제시하였다. 분석결과, 사면경사와 강우 및 지하수의 평가항목은 상태평가 등급과의 연관성이 낮은 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 다중회귀분석을 통해 제시된 회귀모형은 절취상태, 강우 및 지하수의 항목을 판단하기 어려운 조건에서 활용이 가능한 것으로 판단된다.

AHP기법을 활용한 임도의 재해위험 등급 구분에 관한 연구 (A Study on Classification of Disaster Risk Rating for Forest Road Using AHP Methodology)

  • 방홍석;권형근;이준우;김명준
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제103권2호
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    • pp.258-263
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 임도의 재해위험 등급을 구분하기 위한 평가표를 제시하고자 수행되었으며, 이를 위해 임도의 재해에 영향을 미치는 인자들을 선정하고 산림공학 전문가들을 대상으로 AHP 설문조사를 실시하였다. 평가항목은 전문가집단의 자문을 통해 크게 자연환경, 인문 사회환경, 임도의 구성요소로 구분하였으며, 총 21개의 평가인자로 구성하였다. 설문조사결과를 바탕으로 각 평가항목에 대한 가중치 분석을 실시하였으며, 분석결과 임도의 구성요소 항목 중 배수시설이 가장 높은 가중치를 점하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, AHP 분석결과를 바탕으로 각각의 평가항목에 대한 평가기준과 평가점수를 부여하여 평가표를 작성하였다. 도출된 평가표를 현장조사에 적용시킨 결과 최고점은 78.8점, 최저점은 42.7점, 평균점수는 61.8점으로 나타났다. 산정된 점수를 바탕으로 전문가 집단의 회의를 통해 임도의 재해위험 등급을 4등급으로 구분하여 제시하였다.

토양증기추출공정 중 오염물의 거동평가기법에 관한 연구

  • 조현정;권태순;양중석;양지원
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지하수토양환경학회 2003년도 추계학술발표회
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    • pp.354-355
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    • 2003
  • In this study, a risk-based cleanup approach using the leaching potential was suggested for the soil vapor extraction (SVE) process. A multi-component model was adopted with local equilibrium assumption (LEA), and Raoult's law was applied to estimate the leaching potential for BTEX. Finally, a risk analysis was conducted based on the leaching pontential calculated. To complete the feasibility of this approach, more investigations and discussions will be required in future.

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A Survey on the Risk Factors Analysis and Evaluation for the types of VDT Work

  • Kim, Day Sung
    • 대한인간공학회지
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    • 제32권5호
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    • pp.469-474
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    • 2013
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to analyze the risk factors of MSDs for the types of office work. Background: Physical risk factors of VDT(Video Display Terminal) associated with shoulder and neck musculoskeletal disorders(MSDs) include static work postures and workstation status. Method: In this study, office work was divided into data search, data entry and design work(drawings, etc.), and then we were surveyed 7 major work places which was included these works. We recorded working postures and obtained still images, depending on the types of office work. Then, RULA(Rapid Upper Limb Assessment) and ROSA(Rapid Office Strain Assessment) were used to analysis the risk factors. Results: The results of RULA showed that design work was under risk levels and required change, but ROSA showed that data entry and design work were high risk. The RULA is to evaluate the level of risk factors based on the working posture; on the other hand, the ROSA is to consider the use of peripheral, same as chair, keyboard/mouse, monitor and computer workstations. Conclusion: Conclusions of this study, the office work is necessary to identify the risk factors caused by the use of peripheral, as well as working posture.

부동산 개발사업의 위험요인 중요도 평가 및 위험관리 방안 (Evaluation of the Importance of Risk Factors in Real Estate Development Projects and Their Risk Management)

  • 박재용;박원석
    • 한국경제지리학회지
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.681-696
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구는 부동산 개발사업 각 단계별로 발생 가능한 위험요인의 중요도를 평가하고, 이에 대한 관리방안을 제시하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 부동산 개발사업에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상되는 단계별 위험요인을 선행연구를 통해 사전적으로 도출한 다음, 부동산 개발사업 전문가들을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하여, 단계별 위험요인들의 중요도를 AHP 기법을 이용하여 평가했다. 본 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 부동산 개발사업의 대분류별 위험요인을 분석한 결과, 개발 전 단계에서는 기획 위험, 개발준비 단계에서는 개발사업 인허가 위험, 개발 단계에서는 현금흐름 위험이 가장 중요한 것으로 평가되었다. 둘째, 부동산 개발사업의 소분류별 위험요인을 분석한 결과, 개발 전 단계에서는 소비자 선호도의 변화, 개발준비 단계에서는 계약 및 인허가 관련업무, 개발 단계에서는 시행사 및 건설사의 부도, 관리 및 운영 단계에서는 사고 및 재해의 발생에 의한 시설보상이 가장 중요한 위험요인으로 평가되었다. 셋째, 이러한 위험요인의 중요도 평가결과에 따라 단계별 위험관리 방안을 제시했다.

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정보보안 예산 수립에서 퍼지 AHP의 적용을 통한 위험 비용 분석 (Cost Risk Analysis for Preparing Budgets of Information Security using Fuzzy AHP)

  • 류시욱;허덕규
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.119-126
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    • 2012
  • Recently, the breakdown of online banking servers and the leakage of customer information give rise to much concern about the security of information systems in financial and banking companies in Korea. The enforcement of security for information system becomes much more important issue than earlier. However, the security reinforcement of information system is restricted by a budget. In addition, the activities' cost to secure information system from threatening are under uncertain circumstances and should be established by a human decision maker who is basically uncertain and vague. Thus, making the budget for information system is exposed to any extent of the risk for these reasons. First, we introduce brief fuzzy set theory and fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) methodology. Then, the cost elements that comprise yearly budget are presented and the priorities among the cost elements are calculated by fuzzy AHP. The cost elements that are exposed to risk are evaluated from the both perspectives of the risk impact and risk occurrence possibility which are expressed as linguistic terms. To get information on the risk profiles-pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic-for each cost element, the evaluation is accomplished and the result is presented. At last, the budget ranges-minimum, mode, maximum-for each cost element are estimated with the consideration of the risk profiles.

Dynamic risk assessment of water inrush in tunnelling and software development

  • Li, L.P.;Lei, T.;Li, S.C.;Xu, Z.H.;Xue, Y.G.;Shi, S.S.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.57-81
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    • 2015
  • Water inrush and mud outburst always restricts the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. In view of the complex disaster-causing mechanism and difficult quantitative predictions of water inrush and mud outburst, several theoretical methods are adopted to realize dynamic assessment of water inrush in the progressive process of tunnel construction. Concerning both the geological condition and construction situation, eleven risk factors are quantitatively described and an assessment system is developed to evaluate the water inrush risk. In the static assessment, the weights of eight risk factors about the geological condition are determined using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Each factor is scored by experts and the synthesis scores are weighted. The risk level is ultimately determined based on the scoring outcome which is derived from the sum of products of weights and comprehensive scores. In the secondary assessment, the eight risk factors in static assessment and three factors about construction situation are quantitatively analyzed using fuzzy evaluation method. Subordinate levels and weight of factors are prepared and then used to calculate the comprehensive subordinate degree and risk level. In the dynamic assessment, the classical field of the eleven risk factors is normalized by using the extension evaluation method. From the input of the matter-element, weights of risk factors are determined and correlation analysis is carried out to determine the risk level. This system has been applied to the dynamic assessment of water inrush during construction of the Yuanliangshan tunnel of Yuhuai Railway. The assessment results are consistent with the actual excavation, which verifies the rationality and feasibility of the software. The developed system is believed capable to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of water inrush in the underground engineering construction.

부정적 언론보도에 대한 베이커리 소비자의 심리적 위험지각과 브랜드태도 연구 (A Research on the psychological risk recognition and Brand Attitude of Bakery Consumers on Negative Media Report)

  • 정순화;한경수
    • 한국생활과학회지
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.513-529
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    • 2015
  • This study performed corroborative analysis by establishing hypothesis so as to corroboratively define the effect on brand attitude of psychological risk recognition in the case where consumers reading negative media news related to bakery recognize crisis communication on the basis of which point. According to corroborative analysis, the role of psychological crisis perception as parameter is confirmed in the causal relation between crisis communication recognition and brand attitude. Such result of study confirms that the positive change in crisis communication recognition reduces psychological risk perception to bakery products and such psychological risk perception eventually become factor which affects brand attitude over products. Such result of study suggests that when reading negative media news on bakery, the influence on consumer's evaluation of news on the basis of certain point and the influence on the formation of causal relation between psychological risk perception and brand attitude has scientific ground. In the aspect, the main result of this study is to find the clue that when comparing precedent study between crisis communication recognition and brand attitude, psychological risk perception is realized with brand attitude as media by verifying the parameter role of psychological risk perception.