• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk analysis and evaluation

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Evaluation of drought risk perception and emergency behavior model

  • Jong-Suk Kim;Yu-Xiang Hong;Heon-Tae Moon;Joo-Heon Lee;Seo-Yeon Park
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.384-384
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    • 2023
  • To enable the government and local authorities to anticipate the public's response to emergency measures, it is crucial to formulate theories on residents' behavioral reactions and establish appropriate evaluation models that cater to local conditions. However, prior research has primarily relied on simple surveys to assess individual disaster preparedness progress, while in the United States, the National Household Survey explores the behavior, attitudes, and motivations of citizens. Nonetheless, relying on simple survey analyses presents limitations. Therefore, our study aims to develop a social science behavioral analysis model that includes risk perception and emergency preparedness evaluation items for drought. We will achieve this by examining both domestic and foreign behavioral models. The ultimate goal is to present an effective response strategy for managing drought risk that incorporates the developed model. The drought risk perception and behavioral model employed in this study involves evaluating individual risk perception of drought disasters, individual effectiveness, and motivation analysis for drought disasters, government satisfaction with drought disaster management, and individual acceptance of drought prevention policies.

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A quantitative assessment method of network information security vulnerability detection risk based on the meta feature system of network security data

  • Lin, Weiwei;Yang, Chaofan;Zhang, Zeqing;Xue, Xingsi;Haga, Reiko
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.4531-4544
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    • 2021
  • Because the traditional network information security vulnerability risk assessment method does not set the weight, it is easy for security personnel to fail to evaluate the value of information security vulnerability risk according to the calculation value of network centrality, resulting in poor evaluation effect. Therefore, based on the network security data element feature system, this study designed a quantitative assessment method of network information security vulnerability detection risk under single transmission state. In the case of single transmission state, the multi-dimensional analysis of network information security vulnerability is carried out by using the analysis model. On this basis, the weight is set, and the intrinsic attribute value of information security vulnerability is quantified by using the qualitative method. In order to comprehensively evaluate information security vulnerability, the efficacy coefficient method is used to transform information security vulnerability associated risk, and the information security vulnerability risk value is obtained, so as to realize the quantitative evaluation of network information security vulnerability detection under single transmission state. The calculated values of network centrality of the traditional method and the proposed method are tested respectively, and the evaluation of the two methods is evaluated according to the calculated results. The experimental results show that the proposed method can be used to calculate the network centrality value in the complex information security vulnerability space network, and the output evaluation result has a high signal-to-noise ratio, and the evaluation effect is obviously better than the traditional method.

A Case Study on Risk Levels of Shoulder Postures Associated with Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorders at Automobile Manufacturing Industry (자동차 조립업종 작업의 근골격계질환관련 어깨 작업자세 위험도 결정을 위한 사례적 접근)

  • Park, Dong Hyun;Hur, Kuk Kang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2013
  • This study tried to develop a basis for quantitative index of working postures associated with WMSDs(Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorders) that could overcome realistic restriction during application of typical checklists for WMSDs evaluation. The baseline data for this study was obtained from automobile manufacturing company(A total of 603 jobs were observed). Specifically, data for shoulder postures was analyzed to have a better and more objective method in terms of job relevance than typical methods such as OWAS, RULA, and REBA. Major statistical tools were Clustering, Logistic regression and so on. The main results in this study could be summarized as follows; 1) The relationships between working postures and WMSDs symptoms at shoulder were statistically significant based on the results from logistic regression. 2) Based on clustering analysis, three levels for WMSDs risk at shoulder were produced for both flexion and abduction were statistically significant. Specific results were as follows; Shoulder flexion: low risk(< $37.7^{\circ}$), medium risk($37.7^{\circ}{\sim}70.0^{\circ}$), high risk(> $70.0^{\circ}$) Shoulder abduction: low risk(< $26.5^{\circ}$), medium risk($26.5^{\circ}{\sim}56.8^{\circ}$), high risk(> $56.8^{\circ}$). 3) The sensitivities on risk levels of shoulder flexion and abduction were 64.0% and 20.6% respectively while the specificities on risk levels of shoulder flexion and abduction were 99.1% and 99.3% respectively. The results showed that the data associated with shoulder postures in this study could provide a good basis for job evaluation of WMSDs at shoulder. Specifically, this evaluation methodology was different from the methods usually used at WMSDs study since it tried to be based on direct job relevance from real working situation. Further evaluation for other body parts as well as shoulder would provide more stability and reliability in WMSDs evaluation study.

Risk Analysis and Selection of the Main Factors in Fishing Vessel Accidents Through a Risk Matrix (위험도 매트릭스를 이용한 어선의 사고 위험도 분석과 사고 주요 요인 도출에 관한 연구)

  • WON, Yoo-Kyung;KIM, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.139-150
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    • 2019
  • Though, fishing vessel accidents account for 70 % of all maritime accidents in Korean waters, most research has focused on identifying causes and developing mitigation policies in an attempt to reduce this rate. However, predicting and evaluating accident risk needs to be done before the implementation of such reduction measures. For this reasons, we havve performed a risk analysis to calculate the risk of accidents and propose a risk criteria matrix with 4 quadrants, within one of which forecasted risk is plotted for the relative comparison of risks. For this research, we considered 9 types of fishing vessel accidents as reported by Korea Maritime Safety Tribunal (KMST). Given that no risk evaluation criteria have been established in Korea, we established a two-dimensional frequency-consequence grid consisting of four quadrants into which paired frequency and consequence for each type of accident are presented. With the simple structure of the evaluation model, one can easily verify the effect of frequency and consequence on the resulting risk within each quadrant. Consequently, these risk evaluation results will help a decision maker employ more realistic risk mitigation measures for accident types situated in different quadrants. As an application of the risk evaluation matrix, accident types were further analyzed using accident causes including human error (factor) and appropriate risk reduction options may be established by comparing the relative frequency and consequence of each accident cause.

Monitoring regional inequalities in climate change risk - A Focus on Heatwave - (기후변화 리스크의 지역 불평등 모니터링 : 폭염을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Geun-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2021
  • Abnormal climate caused by climate change causes enormous social and economic damage. And such damage and its impact may vary depending on the location and regional characteristics of the region and the social and economic conditions of local residents. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor whether there are indicators that are weaker than other regions among the detailed indicators that constitute the risk, exposure and vulnerability of climate change risk. In this study, the concept of climate change risk was used for heatwave to determine regional inequality of climate change risk. In other words, it was judged that inequality in climate change risk occurred in regions with high risk but high exposure and low vulnerability compared to other regions. As a result of the analysis, it was found that 13 local governments in Korea experienced regional inequality in climate change risk. In order to resolve regional inequality in climate change risks, the current status of regional inequality in climate change should be checked based on the analysis proposed in this study, there is a need for an evaluation and monitoring system that can provide appropriate feedback on areas where inequality has occurred. This continuous evaluation and monitoring-based feedback system is expected to be of great help in resolving regional inequality in climate change risks.

User Requirement Analysis on Risk Management of Architectural Heritage in Virtual Reality

  • Lee, Jongwook
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.24 no.9
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2019
  • We propose a method to analyze user requirements to design a virtual reality-based risk management system. This paper presents surveys, interviews, prototype evaluation methods, and implementation process. Architectural heritage is easily exposed to natural and artificial dangers caused by various material combinations and structural features. So, risk management of cultural heritage plays a key role in preserving and managing cultural heritage. However, risk management has been carried out through empirical methods using distributed data. This study analyzes user requirements for designing functions and interfaces of VR-based risk management system and evaluates prototypes to overcome the above problems. As a result, most heritage managers wanted a system function to support risk analysis and response. They also found that they prefer 2D information such as existing drawings and photos rather than 3D information. The results of the user requirements analysis derived from this study will be used to create risk management applications.

Evaluation for conjunctive operation of multi-regional water supply system through risk analysis (위기대응 취약성 분석을 통한 광역상수도 연계운영 평가)

  • Hwang, Jinsoo;Choi, Taeho;Hong, Gonghyun;Lee, Doojin;Koo, Jayong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.269-279
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    • 2019
  • This study would present a risk analysis method to evaluate stable tap water supply in a multi-regional water supply system and propose a measure for the evaluation of the effect of the conjunctive operation of the multi-regional water supply system using this. Judging from the vulnerability for the crisis response of the entire N. multi-regional water supply system, as compared to the result of Scenario 1 in which no conjunctive pipes were operated, it was found that in Scenario 2, in which conjunctive pipes were partially operated, the vulnerability of crisis response decreased by about 30.6%, and as compared to Scenario 3, the vulnerability of crisis response decreased by 86.2%. In setting a plan for stable tap water supply in N multi-regional water supply system, using the estimated value and the method for the evaluation of the vulnerability of crisis response by pipe, by interval and by line, it is judged that this can be utilized as a basis for the judgment of the evaluation of the operation or the additional installation of conjunctive pipes.

Development on Fuzzy-AHP Ranking Risk Assessment Model for the monitoring systems (관제시스템 구축을 위한 Fuzzy-AHP 위험 순위 평가 모델 개발)

  • Chung, Sung-Hak;Park, Tae-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study is to develop an evaluation model for the National highway risky areas. Thus, for the purposes of doing this, National highway risky area evaluated targeting to provide determination ranking and suggesting rival-superiority factors as well as under-inferiority factors in ten National highway risky areas. This study developed for modules of risky areas evaluation, using fuzzy set theory and analytic hierarchy process for evaluation model of National highway risky area in transport environment. The preceding studies assess risk analysis through analysis of causal relationships by National highway safety sector not only handles rating scale development suitable for assessment area by referring to accident frequency model but also geometric structures model. As result of this study, this model of Fuzzy Ahp Risk Analysis (FARA) apply for programmable design in real time processing through easily derive strategy for improvement activities to provide a decision-making effectively. Furthermore, this study contributes frame for improvements of National highway construction for renovation's priority strategy as well as future's policy schemes.

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Safety Management Cost using Quantitative Risk Analysis (정량적 위험성 평가에 의한 안전관리 투자의 비용-편익분석)

  • 장서일;조지훈;김태옥
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2002
  • The quantitative evaluation method of the safety management cost was suggested to prevent a gas accident as a major industrial accident. In a gas governor station, process risk assessments such as the fault tree analysis(FTA) and the consequence analysis were performed. Based on process risk assessments, potential accident costs were estimated and the cost-benefit analysis(CBA) was performed. From the cost-benefit analysis for five classification items of safety management cost, the order of the cost/benefit ratio was estimated.

Analysis and risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in seafood from oil contaminated bay (유류 오염지역의 수산물 중 다환방향족탄화수소류 (PAHs) 분석 및 위해평가)

  • Jeong, Ji-Yoon;Choi, Chan-Woong;Ryeom, Tai-Kyung;Cho, Kyoung-Hee;Park, Se-Ryung;Shin, Ho-Sang;Lee, Kwang-Ho;Lee, Hyo-Min
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 2010
  • To assess health risk for the intake among residents after the Hebei Spirit oil spill, 16 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in seafood samples from oil contaminated bay were determined by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MSD) and samples were personally collected and purchased by residents. Samples were hydrolyzed with KOH and extracted with methylene chloride. The extracted solution were cleaned up using silica/florisil column and 16 PAHs were eluted by methylene chloride : n-hexane (1:9) mixture and determined by GC-MSD in Selected Ion Monitoring (SIM) mode. The mean recoveries for 16 PAHs ranged from 79% to 85%. The 16 PAHs levels in 126 samples ranged from 0.17 to $6.04\;{\mu}g$/kg and the TEQBaP (Toxic EQuivalents) levels in 126 samples were calculated using benzo(a)pyrene toxic equivalency factor for individual 16 PAHs and ranged from 0 to $0.91\;{\mu}gTEQ$/kg. The average Benzo(a)pyrene dietary exposure of residents was $5.5{\times}10^{-8}\;mg/kg$ bw/day and the average PAHs chronic dietary exposure was $1.3{\times}10^{-5}\;mg$ TEQ/kg bw/day. The margin of exposure (MOE) and the excess cancer risk and were $1.8{\times}10^6$ and $9.8{\times}10^{-8}$, respectively. Therefore, the assessment result was considered as low concern for health risk.