• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk analysis and estimation

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Estimation of Road-Network Performance and Resilience According to the Strength of a Disaster (재난 강도에 따른 도로 네트워크의 성능 및 회복력 산정 방안)

  • Jung, Hoyong;Choi, Seunghyun;Do, Myungsik
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : This study examines the performance changes of road networks according to the strength of a disaster, and proposes a method for estimating the quantitative resilience according to the road-network performance changes and damage scale. This study also selected high-influence road sections, according to disasters targeting the road network, and aimed to analyze their hazard resilience from the network aspect through a scenario analysis of the damage recovery after a disaster occurred. METHODS : The analysis was conducted targeting Sejong City in South Korea. The disaster situation was set up using the TransCAD and VISSIM traffic-simulation software. First, the study analyzed how road-network damage changed the user's travel pattern and travel time, and how it affected the complete network. Secondly, the functional aspects of the road networks were analyzed using quantitative resilience. Finally, based on the road-network performance change and resilience, priority-management road sections were selected. RESULTS : According to the analysis results, when a road section has relatively low connectivity and low traffic, its effect on the complete network is insignificant. Moreover, certain road sections with relatively high importance can suffer a performance loss from major damage, for e.g., sections where bridges, tunnels, or underground roads are located, roads where no bypasses exist or they exist far from the concerned road, including entrances and exits to suburban areas. Relatively important roads have the potential to significantly degrade the network performance when a disaster occurs. Because of the high risk of delays or isolation, they may lead to secondary damage. Thus, it is necessary to manage the roads to maintain their performance. CONCLUSIONS : As a baseline study to establish measures for traffic prevention, this study considered the performance of a road network, selected high-influence road sections within the road network, and analyzed the quantitative resilience of the road network according to scenarios. The road users' passage-pattern changes were analyzed through simulation analysis using the User Equilibrium model. Based on the analysis results, the resilience in each scenario was examined and compared. Sections where a road's performance loss had a significant influence on the network were targeted. The study results were judged to become basic research data for establishing response plans to restore the original functions and performance of the destroyed and damage road networks, and for selecting maintenance priorities.

Data Cleaning and Integration of Multi-year Dietary Survey in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) using Database Normalization Theory (데이터베이스 정규화 이론을 이용한 국민건강영양조사 중 다년도 식이조사 자료 정제 및 통합)

  • Kwon, Namji;Suh, Jihye;Lee, Hunjoo
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.298-306
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: Since 1998, the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) has been conducted in order to investigate the health and nutritional status of Koreans. The food intake data of individuals in the KNHANES has also been utilized as source dataset for risk assessment of chemicals via food. To improve the reliability of intake estimation and prevent missing data for less-responded foods, the structure of integrated long-standing datasets is significant. However, it is difficult to merge multi-year survey datasets due to ineffective cleaning processes for handling extensive numbers of codes for each food item along with changes in dietary habits over time. Therefore, this study aims at 1) cleaning the process of abnormal data 2) generation of integrated long-standing raw data, and 3) contributing to the production of consistent dietary exposure factors. Methods: Codebooks, the guideline book, and raw intake data from KNHANES V and VI were used for analysis. The violation of the primary key constraint and the $1^{st}-3rd$ normal form in relational database theory were tested for the codebook and the structure of the raw data, respectively. Afterwards, the cleaning process was executed for the raw data by using these integrated codes. Results: Duplication of key records and abnormality in table structures were observed. However, after adjusting according to the suggested method above, the codes were corrected and integrated codes were newly created. Finally, we were able to clean the raw data provided by respondents to the KNHANES survey. Conclusion: The results of this study will contribute to the integration of the multi-year datasets and help improve the data production system by clarifying, testing, and verifying the primary key, integrity of the code, and primitive data structure according to the database normalization theory in the national health data.

Study on the Correlation between Nicotine Concentrations in Environmental Tobacco Smoke and Urinary Cotinine Concentrations of Nonsmokers (비흡연자의 Nicotine에 대한 노출량과 뇨중 Cotinine 농도의 상관성에 관한 연구)

  • Roh, Jin-Ho;Shin, Dong-Chun;Kim, Jong-Man;Chung, Yong
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.5 no.3_4
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 1990
  • Smoking damages nonsmoker's health who have been exposed to passive smoking as well as smoker's own health. Passive smoking can cause serious health damage to particular groups, such as the old aged, children and pregnant women. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between nicotine concentrations in environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and urinary cotinine concentrations of nonsmokers exposed to ETS, and to provide basic information related to health risk assessment. The results of this study were summarized as follows: 1. When 180 cigarrette were smoked during S hours (high concentrations exposure) in 132 m$^3$chamber, mean concentrations of nicotine in ETS showed 263.52 $\mu\textrm{g}$/m$^3$${\pm}$51.93. When 45 cigarretts were smoked (low concentrations exposure), it was 69.43${\pm}$8.96 $\mu\textrm{g}$/m$^3$. 2. The urinary cotinine concentrations of each times (0, 2.5, 5, 17 and 24 hours) in nonsmokers ranged from 0.27∼12.52 ng/ml in high concentrations exposure and 0.22∼2.28 ng/ml in low concentrations exposure. Mean while the total urinary cotinine concentrations during 24 hours ranged from 11.62∼31.65 ng/ml in high concentrations exposure and 3.45∼5.64 ng/ml in low concentrations exposure. 3. The correlation equation and coefficient between cotinine concentrations in nonsmokers' urine (y) and nicotine concentrations in ETS (x) was y=0.421+0.0171x and 0:875 (p<0.01) respectively, 4. The quantity of nonsmokers' smoking exposure by passive smoking can be assumed as based on the estimation of nicotine concentrations in ETS by measuring cotinine concentrations of nonsmokers' urine.

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Uncertainty and Estimation of Health Burden from Particulate Matter in Seoul Metropolitan Region (수도권 대기 중 입자상 물질로 인한 건강부담 추정과 불확실성)

  • Ha, Jongsik;Moon, Nankyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.275-286
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    • 2013
  • It is well known that exposure to high level of PM (particulate matter) can adversely affect human health. However, little is known about health burden of PM considering the relationship, exposed level of PM, and health level in local communities. And, there is scarcely methodical assessment of uncertainty for application to policies of these assessment results. The scope of this study is divided into two parts: firstly to estimate the death burden of PM10 (particulate matter less then $10{\mu}m$ in diameter) in Seoul metropolitan region, and secondly to evaluate potential uncertainties in these estimates. To estimate the death burden of PM10 in Seoul metropolitan region from 2005~2010, we firstly assessed the relationship between daily mean PM10 and daily death counts in Seoul from 2000~2010, and calculated the death burden of PM10 using BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). After that, we identified and characterized uncertainties to substantially influence the results of death burden. The daily mortality risk was increased 1.000227 times (p-value/0.001) associated with $1{\mu}g/m^3$ increase of daily mean PM10 for all ages population, Seoul. And, death burdens of PM10 in Seoul metropolitan region were estimated from 5.51 in 2005 to 5.12 in 2010 per 100,000 people. Finally, we categorized context, model, and input uncertainty and characterized these uncertainties in three dimensions (i.e. location, level, and nature) using uncertainty typology. In our study, we argue that uncertainties need to be identified, assessed, reported and interpreted in order for assessment results to adequately support decision making, such as the establishment of air quality standards based on health burden of air quality.

Prevalence and Alternative Treatment of Head-Lice Infestation in Rural Thailand: A Community-Based Study

  • Singhasivanon, On-uma;Lawpoolsri, Saranath;Mungthin, Mathirut;Yimsamran, Surapon;Soonthornworasiri, Ngamphol;Krudsood, Srivicha
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.499-504
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    • 2019
  • Head-lice infestation, pediculosis capitis, remains a public-health burden in many countries. The widely used first-line pediculicides and alternative treatments are often too costly for use in poor socio-economic settings. Ivermectin has been considered an alternate treatment for field practice. This study was composed of 2 parts, a cross-sectional survey and an intervention study. The main objectives were to determine the prevalence and potential factors associated with head-lice infestation, and to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of oral ivermectin administration. A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among 890 villagers in rural areas along Thai-Myanmar border. Females with infestations were eligible for the intervention study, and 181 participated in the intervention study. A post-treatment survey was conducted to assess acceptance of ivermectin as a treatment choice. Data analysis used descriptive statistics and a generalized-estimation-equation model adjusted for cluster effect. The study revealed the prevalence of head-lice infestation was 50% among females and only 3% among males. Age stratification showed a high prevalence among females aged <20 years, and among 50% of female school-children. The prevalence was persistent among those with a history of infestation. The major risk factors were residing in a setting with other infected cases, and sharing a hair comb. The study also confirmed that ivermectin was safe and effective for field-based practice. It was considered a preferable treatment option. In conclusion, behavior-change communication should be implemented to reduce the observed high prevalence of head-lice infestation. Ivermectin may be an alternative choice for head-lice treatment, especially in remote areas.

Seismic vulnerability macrozonation map of SMRFs located in Tehran via reliability framework

  • Amini, Ali;Kia, Mehdi;Bayat, Mahmoud
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.78 no.3
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    • pp.351-368
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    • 2021
  • This paper, by applying a reliability-based framework, develops seismic vulnerability macrozonation maps for Tehran, the capital and one of the most earthquake-vulnerable city of Iran. Seismic performance assessment of 3-, 4- and 5-story steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs), designed according to ASCE/SEI 41-17 and Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (2800 Standard), is investigated in terms of overall maximum inter-story drift ratio (MIDR) and unit repair cost ratio which is hereafter known as "damage ratio". To this end, Tehran city is first meshed into a network of 66 points to numerically locate low- to mid-rise SMRFs. Active faults around Tehran are next modeled explicitly. Two different combination of faults, based on available seismological data, are then developed to explore the impact of choosing a proper seismic scenario. In addition, soil effect is exclusively addressed. After building analytical models, reliability methods in combination with structure-specific probabilistic models are applied to predict demand and damage ratio of structures in a cost-effective paradigm. Due to capability of proposed methodology incorporating both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties explicitly, this framework which is centered on the regional demand and damage ratio estimation via structure-specific characteristics can efficiently pave the way for decision makers to find the most vulnerable area in a regional scale. This technical basis can also be adapted to any other structures which the demand and/or damage ratio prediction models are developed.

A simplified method for estimating the fundamental period of masonry infilled reinforced concrete frames

  • Jiang, Rui;Jiang, Liqiang;Hu, Yi;Ye, Jihong;Zhou, Lingyu
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.74 no.6
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    • pp.821-832
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    • 2020
  • The fundamental period is an important parameter for seismic design and seismic risk assessment of building structures. In this paper, a simplified theoretical method to predict the fundamental period of masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frame is developed based on the basic theory of engineering mechanics. The different configurations of the RC frame as well as masonry walls were taken into account in the developed method. The fundamental period of the infilled structure is calculated according to the integration of the lateral stiffness of the RC frame and masonry walls along the height. A correction coefficient is considered to control the error for the period estimation, and it is determined according to the multiple linear regression analysis. The corrected formula is verified by shaking table tests on two masonry infilled RC frame models, and the errors between the estimated and test period are 2.3% and 23.2%. Finally, a probability-based method is proposed for the corrected formula, and it allows the structural engineers to select an appropriate fundamental period with a certain safety redundancy. The proposed method can be quickly and flexibly used for prediction, and it can be hand-calculated and easily understood. Thus it would be a good choice in determining the fundamental period of RC frames infilled with masonry wall structures in engineering practice instead of the existing methods.

Estimation of Survival Rates in Patients with Lung Cancer in West Azerbaijan, the Northwest of Iran

  • Abazari, Malek;Gholamnejad, Mahdia;Roshanaei, Ghodratollah;Abazari, Reza;Roosta, Yousef;Mahjub, Hossein
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.3923-3926
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    • 2015
  • Background: Lung cancer is a fatal malignancy with high mortality and short survival time. The aim of this study was to estimate survival rates of Iranian patients with lung cancer and its associate predictive factors. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted on 355 patients admitted to hospitals of West Azerbaijan in the year 2007. The patients were followed up by phone calls until the end of June 2014. The survival rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test for comparison. The Cox's proportional hazard model was used to investigate the effect of various variables on patient survival time, including age, sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance, smoking status, tumor type, tumor stage, treatment, metastasis, and blood hemoglobin concentration. Results: Of the 355 patients under study, 240 died and 115 were censored. The mean and median survival time of patients was 13 and 4.8 months, respectively. According to the results of Kaplan-Meier method, 1, 2, and 3 years survival rates were 39%, 18%, and 0.07%, respectively. Based on Cox regression analysis, the risk of death was associated with ECOG group V (1.83, 95% CI: 1 Conclusions: The survival time of the patients with lung cancer is very short. While early diagnosis may improve the life expectancy effective treatment is not available.

RELIABILITY DATA UPDATE USING CONDITION MONITORING AND PROGNOSTICS IN PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT

  • KIM, HYEONMIN;LEE, SANG-HWAN;PARK, JUN-SEOK;KIM, HYUNGDAE;CHANG, YOON-SUK;HEO, GYUNYOUNG
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.204-211
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    • 2015
  • Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has had a significant role in quantitative decision-making by finding design and operational vulnerabilities and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. In particular, it has been widely used as the core methodology for risk-informed applications (RIAs). Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still "conservative" aspects. One of the sources for the conservatism is the assumptions of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, diagnosis, and prognosis (SDP), utilizing massive databases and information technology, is worth highlighting in terms of its capability for alleviating the conservatism in conventional PSA. This article provides enabling techniques to solidify a method to provide time- and condition-dependent risks by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs) and probability of basic events (BEs). Two illustrative examples will be introduced: (1) how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and (2) how the IE frequency for a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of core damage frequency (CDF) depending on operational conditions.

Investigation on the Main Exposure Sources of Nanomaterials for Nanohazards Assessment (나노위해성 관리를 위한 나노물질 주요 배출원 파악)

  • Kim, Young-Hun;Park, Jun-Su;Kim, He-Ro;Lee, Jeong-Jin;Bae, Eun-Joo;Lee, Su-Seung;Kwak, Byoung-Kyu;Choi, Kyung-Hee;Park, Kwang-Sik;Yi, Jong-Heop
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.257-265
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    • 2008
  • Nanotechnology is emerging as one of the key technologies of the 21 st century and is expected to enable one to broaden the applicability across a wide range of sectors that can benefit public and improve industrial competitiveness. Already, consumer products containing nanomaterials are available in markets including coatings, computers, clothing, cosmetics, sports equipment and medical devices. Recently, Institute of Occupational Medicine in UK reported an occupational hygiene review for nanoparticles in the viewpoint of nanotoxicity. They reported that the exposure control is very important issues in workplace for exposure assessment, but no proper methods are available to measure the extent of exposures to nanoparticles in the workplace. Therefore, for the estimation of exposure of nanomaterials, we have to approach the material-balance methodology, which similarly carried out in TRI (toxic release inventory) for hazardous chemicals. In order to use this methodology, the exposure source of nanomaterials should be determined firstly. Therefore, herein we investigated the main sources and processes for the exposure to nanomaterals by conducting the survey. The results could be used to define and assess nanohazard sources.