• 한국안전학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.68-71
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• 2002

A research on accident loss calculation for polyol process without safety management activities, and safety cost estimation using process risk assessment has been implemented. In order to estimate a magnitude of loss, accident scenarios were made by combining result made from HAZOP Study method with accident possibility analysis results implemented with FTA. Also effect assessment was implement for accident consequence of each scenario. And minimum possible loss cost has been calculated when safety investment do or not. Result from cost-benefit analysis was shown as approximately \335 billion(=USS44,000 billion), as cost after subtracting safety management cost from minimum possible loss cost.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.191-206
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• 2010

Windborne debris is a major cause of structural damage during severe windstorms and hurricanes owing to its direct impact on building envelopes as well as to the 'chain reaction' failure mechanism it induces by interacting with wind pressure damage. Estimation of debris risk is an important component in evaluating wind damage risk to residential developments. A debris risk model developed by the authors enables one to analytically aggregate damage threats to a building from different types of debris originating from neighboring buildings. This model is extended herein to a general debris risk analysis methodology that is then incorporated into a vulnerability model accounting for the temporal evolution of the interaction between pressure damage and debris damage during storm passage. The current paper (Part I) introduces the debris risk analysis methodology, establishing the mathematical modeling framework. Stochastic models are proposed to estimate the probability distributions of debris trajectory parameters used in the method. It is shown that model statistics can be estimated from available information from wind-tunnel experiments and post-damage surveys. The incorporation of the methodology into vulnerability modeling is described in Part II.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.850-858
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• 2011

The risk analysis plays an important role in weapon system acquisition project due to uncertainties in the acquisition process. But in domestic, studies on risk analysis are insufficient and risk cost is not included in acquisition budget in policy. Therefore, in this study, we suggest a method that measures risk or success probability of project using the stochastic model. In particular, in order to calculate the success probability, we apply the joint probability distribution model of cost and schedule that are critical factors influencing the project risk. And also we verify the applicability of this model in Korean defence industry environment through case studies.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제47권5호
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• pp.432-445
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• 2021

Background: The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals' Targeted Risk Assessment (ECETOC TRA) tool has been recognized by EU REACH as a preferred approach for calculating worker health risks from chemicals. Objectives: The applicability of the ECETOC TRA to occupational exposure estimation from industrial uses of methanol was studied by inputting surveyed and varied parameters for TRA estimation as well as through comparison with measured data. Methods: Information on uses of methanol was collected from seven working environment monitoring reports along with the measured exposure data. Input parameters for TRA estimation such as operating conditions (OCs), risk management measures (RMMs) and process categories (PROCs) were surveyed. To compare with measured exposures, parameters from the surveyed conditions of ventilation but no use of respiratory protection were applied. Results: PROCs 4, 5, 8a, 10, and 15 were assigned to ten uses of methanol. The uses include as a solvent for manufacturing sun cream, surfactants, dyestuffs, films and adhesives. Methanol was also used as a component in a release agent, hardening media and mold wash for cast products as well as a component of hard-coating solution and a viscosity-controlling agent for manufacturing glass lenses. PROC 8a and PROC 10 of a cast product manufacturer without LEV (local exhaust ventilation) and general ventilation as well as no respiratory protection resulted in the highest exposure to methanol. Assuming the identical worst OCs and RMMs for all uses, exposures from PROC 5, 8a, and 10 were the same and the highest followed by PROC 4 and 15. The estimation resulted in higher exposures in nine uses except one use where measured exposure approximated exposures without RMMs. Conclusions: The role of ECETOC TRA as a conservative exposure assessment tool was confirmed by comparison with measured data. Moreover, it can guide which RMMs should be applied for the safe use of methanol.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권1호
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• pp.211-221
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• 2020

One fundamental element of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the initiating event (IE) analysis. Since IE frequencies can change over time, time-trend analysis is required to obtain optimized IE frequencies. Accordingly, such time-trend analyses have been employed to estimate industry-average IE frequencies for use in the PSAs of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs); existing PSAs of Korean NPPs, however, neglect such analysis in the estimation of IE frequencies. This article therefore provides the method for and results of estimating Korean industry-average IE frequencies using time-trend analysis. It also examines the effects of the IE frequencies obtained from this study on risk insights by applying them to recently updated internal events Level 1 PSA models (at-power and shutdown) for an OPR-1000 plant. As a result, at-power core damage frequency decreased while shutdown core damage frequency increased, with the related contributions from each IE category changing accordingly. These results imply that the incorporation of time-trend analysis leads to different IE frequencies and resulting risk insights. The IE frequency distributions presented in this study can be used in future PSA updates for Korean NPPs, and should be further updated themselves by adding more recent data.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제55권spc1호
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• pp.1167-1175
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 노후도를 보다 간단히 평가할 수 있는 운영지수 분석법을 개발하였고 이를 기존의 노후도 분석법과 비교 분석하였다. 청주시 상수관망에 적용하여 노후도를 비교 분석하였으며 사용성을 입증하였다. 기존의 간접평가법 분석결과, 율량동(구시가지), 내덕1동, 용암2동 상수관망의 노후도가 가장 높은 것으로 분석되었으며, 신뢰성해석을 통한 안전도 분석 결과 내덕1동 상수관망이 직경 200 mm, 300 mm 강관 모두 파괴확률 3.21%, 4.65%로 안전도가 가장 취약한 것으로 분석되었다. 운영지수 분석법의 경우, 내덕1동 상수관망이 직경 200 mm, 300 mm 강관 모두 위험도 0.2609, 0.2644로 가장 높은 것으로 분석되었으며, 개량 우선순위는 비슷한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 향후 운영지수 분석법을 통해 상수도관을 보다 간단하게 노후도를 분석하여 상수관망의 운영관리에 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.96-101
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• 2009

In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.1-20
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• 2004

Most of the software development projects bear risks that need analysis and management. Risk management plays a critical role for the success of software project management. In this study, we have used delphi method to delineate critical risk factors. The study pulls out 20 project risk factors from 21 project managers. It is certainly clear that certain features are more risky than others. Our study shows that unrealistic cost estimation and changes in scope and objective are more risky than other features.

• 한국지형공간정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지형공간정보학회 2005년도 아시아 태평양 국제 GSIS 학술발표회
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• pp.61-72
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• 2005

The landslide risk assessment process consists of hazard risk assessment and vulnerability analysis. landslide hazard risk is location dependent. Therefore, maps and spatial technologies such as GIS are very important components of the risk assessment process. This paper discusses the advantages of using GIS technology in the risk assessment process and illustrates the benefits through case studies of live projects undertaken. The goal of this study is to generate a map of landslide vulnerability map by analysis of static natural factors with GIS. A simple and efficient algorithm is proposed to generate a landslide potentialities map from DEM and existing maps. The categories of controlling factors for landslides, aspect of slope, soil, vegetation are defined. The weight values for landslide potentialities are calculated from AHP method. Slope and slope-direction are extracted from DEM, and soil informations are extracted from digital soil map. Also, vegetation informations are extracted from digital vegetation map. Finally, as overlaying, landslide potentialities map is made out, and it is verified with landslide place.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.1017-1028
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• 2014

잘 알려져 있는 것처럼 일반적인 베이즈 추정량(Bayes estimator)과 경험적 베이즈 추정량(empirical Bayes estimator)은 모수를 추정하는데 있어서 오차를 과다축소하는 단점을 가지고 있다. 따라서 이러한 단점을 극복하기 위하여 constrained 베이즈 추정량이 일차 적률과 이차 적률을 일치시키는 성질을 만족시키며 제안되었다. 또한 평균 제곱오차 함수와 같은 전통적인 손실함수에서는 추정의 정확성만을 고려하는 특징을 가지고 있기 때문에, 추정의 정확성과 정합성을 동시에 고려하는 균형 손실함수가 제안되었다. 이러한 이유로 인하여 균형손실 함수하에서의 제한적 베이즈 추정량의 활용이 손해 보험의 가격 산출에 제안되는 것은 타당하다. 그러나 대부분의 연구는 추정의 문제에만 집중하는 경향이 있으며. 이는 새롭게 제안되는 특정 손실함수하에서의 constrained 베이즈 추정량과 constrained empirical 베이즈 추정량의 베이즈 위험의 계산이 어렵다는 점에서 기인한다. 본 연구에서는 다양한 베이즈 추정량들에 대한 베이즈 위험을 서로 다른 두 손실함수하에서 비교하였으며, 그 대상은 자동차 보험 산업에서의 위험도 추정 분야이다. 또한 자동차 보험 산업의 실제 사고 데이터를 이용하여 새롭게 제안된 베이즈 추정량의 베이즈 위험을 비교함으로써 그 효용성을 입증하였다.